Subject:	Search for Pollys continues.
Date:	1999/06/02
Author:	cory hamasaki <kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net>
	Posting History

Continuing the search for substantive Polly analysis.   So far, the WRP's have been graced by three Polly analysis.  The first was the exchange between Bruce Webster and InfoMagic (WRP106), then Arnold Trembly (WRP119) and Greg Sugg (WRP120) offered from-the-trenches insight.   With 212 days to go, no one knows what will happen.  Arnold may have coined the term date-quake, I prefer singularity.    Bruce, Arnold, and Greg work different parts of the problem. Unfortunately, none of them are a pure Polly.  They are working the problem, hoping for the best, and allow that there is a possibility that things could go horribly wrong.   There are pure Polly enclaves in the Internet where the Polly extremists gather to cheer each other on and reinfect each other with their meme's.   The pure Polly meme's are:   1)  Talking about the threat of Y2K will ignite a reactive panic among the sheeple.  Jawboning to minimize the problem will save the world.   2)  Systems will not fail but if they do, they will be fixed in, oh, 2 or 3 hours.   3)  A large expenditure of funds on Y2K remediation proves that the problem has been solved.   4)  A small expenditure of funds on Y2K remediation proves that the problem has been solved.   5)  If one organization works for years and spends millions and a comparable organization is just starting, this proves that the problem is solved.   6)  If a "Doomer" retires from the fray to work on his preps, earn a living, or just hang out, the problem is solved.   7)  If someone makes money for their efforts, they are hyping the problem.   8)  Everything was fixed by December 31, 1998, they were just afraid to state it because they could be sued.   9)  If a idea is disturbing or uncomfortable, cast it out.    10)  Preparing a "retirement" or "weekend/vacation" cabin is a disturbed act.   11)  Buying caselots of items you use on a regular basis at a discount is poor money management.   12)  No one will be inconvenienced by Y2K except through over-preparation, such as storing more than 3 days of food, which could be stolen, go bad, or be eaten by pests.   Is the pure Polly position a "Faith" thing or is there a technical basis for it?  Is there a Polly Tim May, Polly InfoMagic, Polly Ed Yourdon?   Am I a Polly for thinking that I can read my leading indicators and will have enough time to drop back to Plan-B, and Plan-C?  Is Plan-C enough? paul milne knows where DragonRanch is within 10 miles, he told me that it was too close to DeeCee.    If the Polly position has a basis, I would like to know what it is.  Not that it would induce me to stop buying food that I will eat anyway or to toss out the gallon jug of clorox that I've set aside for purifying water.  If I don't need it for water, my sheets and linens will be white, white, bright for years.   On the other hand, with 212 days to go, new contracts for Y2K remediation are being awarded in DeeCee and Maryland.   cory hamasaki http://www.kiyoinc.com/current.html

-- a (a@a.a), June 02, 1999

Answers

"On the other hand, with 212 days to go, new contracts for Y2K remediation are being awarded in DeeCee and Maryland"

Case closed Cory : )

Problem solved!!!

cha...and I have a bug-out cabin for sale...as if.

It's not like the systems in D.C. are critical to anything. We can go manual. Everything is peachy. Still plenty of money in the pot. The market is up.

Still, I just keep thinking #8 over and over again. And the typical polly reponse is still "you're getting sleepy...sleepy..."

Isn't the next big deadline June 30th?

Thanks "a", and thank you Mr. Hamasaki.

Mike =================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), June 02, 1999.

Cory makes it real humerous, but the fact is that Pollys seem to be concerned about being anti-North and anti-preparation than truly worried about Y2K. Y2K seems to be more a stepping stone, somehow. Just my two cents....

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), June 02, 1999.

Cory:

(1) Hang in there. Keep trying. There must be a responsible, knowledgable, beleivable Polly out there somewhere. Or maybe not, which also is sufficient evidence of the fallacy of the "no problem" position.

(2) Try plan K: Last bastion of retreat on Kauai... If it isn't far enough from DC, nothing is!

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 02, 1999.

A true polly has to attempt to prove a negative, and a future negative at that. This is a tall order, and only someone rather stupid is likely to try. It's as tall an order as for someone living in San Francisco to prove that they won't lose their life to an earthquake.

Rationally, we don't know until it happens. In the meantime we have little but hunches, guesses and gut feeling to go on. No preparation is certainly foolhardy. Preparation for TEOTWAWKI may be equally so, but right now if you feel that it's the right thing then the only sensible way is to act on those feelings. I can argue that you are probably misguided; I can't argue that you are definitely so.

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), June 03, 1999.

Michael: The systems in DC are NOT critical to anything. It's the electricity, phones, banking, etc., I'm worried about.

-- A (A@AisA.com), June 03, 1999.

A, I would think the relatively large amount of our population relying on federal assistance would disagree with that statement.

a, I want to thank you for posting Cory's stuff here. I don't always get time to visit his site, but I enjoy his analysis. It seems as though he's constantly grappling with the same issues we all are, and it's been interesting to watch his attitude evolve as we get closer to the rollover. As we all do, Cory seems to really want to believe everything will be ok, but all the indicators point to a very different scenario.

jeannie

-- jhollander (hollander@ij.net), June 03, 1999.

There sure are a lot of simplifications and broad-brush characterizations going on from all points of view. Cory is totally misrepresenting the views of the "pollys." I for one don't enjoy his satire and sarcasm that much. And you wonder where all the polly sarcasm got started. That's typical of c.s.y2k, both pollys and doomers.

Cory, a gallon of bleach won't last you long, even if you only use it for laundry. Better get some more!

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), June 03, 1999.

Buddy, where does the SARCASM come from?

Jeez man! Look, I'm not a "doomer", I'm just a VERY thorough engineering type (I"n not sure there's any other kind) who wants to take care of my family's needs if bad things happen. Not WHEN, but IF.

When I speak to people about personal preparedness, I am INSTANTLY labelled a "crackpot doomer". Well, with crap like that going on, how can you even ask that question? I am offended by those "labellers" who ABSOLUTELY can't IMAGINE taking steps to assure their loved ones' safety and care.

So, I "strike back" at particularly offensive comments. This offends the OTHER side, who CAN'T IMAGINE that someone would waste vauable TIME, EFFORT AND DOLLARS on something so "stupid" as Y2K. The difference: THESE people INSIST on butting in to MY BUSINESS, as if it's THEIR MONEY I'm spending.

Honestly, nobody has the right to tell me what to do. Personally, I try to make RECOMMENDATIONS, not to GIVE ORDERS. I'll never understand why the "polly" camp is so DEAD SET on stopping our preparations. I mean, what store shelves have we "emptied", exactly? What "damage" have we done to society? We want our loved ones to be cared for, even if it makes some people uncomfortable. What right do the "pollys" have to tell me that caring for my family is WRONG?

Here's a hint: NONE.

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), June 03, 1999.