Quote from an article in the Seattle Times:

http://www.seattletimes.com/news/technology/html98/powr_19990531.html

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Rick Cowles, who has written a book about Y2K and the power industry, recently expressed skepticism about reports of the quickly improving rate of completion of Y2K work.

As of last November, the North American Electric Reliability Council reported utilities were 44 percent done with Y2K fixes and testing. Late last month, it said the completion rate had jumped to 75 percent.

"I'm not saying they (the figures) are unbelievable, but it certainly is astonishing they've made the progress they're reporting over the course of the last four or five months," said Cowles.

Council spokesman Gorzelnik countered: "I am not astonished that he is astonished. I - and a lot of other people who are in the media looking for balanced quotes - started discounting Rick many months ago."

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So, let me get this straight... NERC think Rick lacks credibility???

Gee Rick, I guess you're too much of a doomer for them... What a bunch of idiots.

Jon

-- Anonymous, June 02, 1999

Answers

Jon,

I would think that Rick must have developed a pretty thick skin by now, and can't quite see him getting his knickers in a bunch over this. However, I do find it quite curious that NERC sees the need to go totally "off message" in an attempt to marginalize its most vocal critic.

Could there be a reason?

1. Well, the end of June (when all electric companies are supposed to report 'Y2K Ready') is almost here. There will surely be a big demand for commentary, whether they are ready or not.

2. A pre-emptive strike at the post-01/01/2000 expert witness market?

Makes you think.

-- Anonymous, June 02, 1999

now here we have it. the gao[see below] has recommended full disclosure and yet when someone has the audacity to express an educated concern or question the statistics and methodology of the industry...ad hominem attacks abound.

Council spokesman Gorzelnik countered: "I am not astonished that he is astonished. I - and a lot of other people who are in the media looking for balanced quotes - started discounting Rick many months ago."

just *what* precisely is a 'balanced view'... one that fits the current party line?

the approach of the nrc is to discount the opinions, no matter how informed those opinions might be, if they do not coincide with the current spin of the koskinen crowd.

an analogy could be drawn to the raising of mushrooms:

keep them in the dark and feed them s@%$t!!

the us general accounting office[investigative arm of congress] stated they will "encourage state regulatory utility commissions to require a full public disclosure of year 2000 readiness status of entities transmitting and distributing electric power--including 136 control areas and the 3,000 entities operating north america's distribution systems. Such disclosure should include the current readiness status, the projected date that readiness will be achieved, descriptions of the probable and worst case scenarios, and a public version of the contingency plans."

-- Anonymous, June 02, 1999

Good Lord...my opinons have now been relegated to the discount rack...I feel like...a cheap pair of last season's liderhosen!!

(pout)

;-)

(Hey, if you can't have some fun with it, what's the point?)

-- Anonymous, June 02, 1999

Gene Gorzelnik, Public Affairs Officer for NERC, the guy who puts the best possible spin on any NERC press releases, says he's looking for "balanced quotes in the media"? That concept gets my best "Humph" and a rolling of the eyes...

Gotta hand it to the guy. He's a master of the PR putdown. And that "many months ago"? I guess that would have been back when the utilities were doing nothing about Y2K, didn't know what problems they had or didn't have, and didn't want to listen to anybody that warned them that they'd better find out. Yep, here we are, with utilities fighting to get critical systems only fixed, and Mr. Gorzelnik brags about discounting Rick "many months ago".

What an arrogant farce. His own words condemn the industry's short-sightedness. I'm tempted to go back those "many months ago" and reprint some of the blithering and panicked posturing of the industry at that point in time when they had no idea whatsoever where they stood re Y2K -- because half the utilities hadn't even begun a repair project!

I need to get some fresh air. Then I'm going to finish writing the article on the NERC survey data I've been working on, and let people know there are a LOT of questions about those surveys which need answering and which preclude taking them as gospel.

-- Anonymous, June 02, 1999

"Sombody has made a terrible mistake" This line makes it into several movies. In this case it is Spin doctor Gene Gorzelnik, who knows maybe he will lose his Spinning license.

Richard

-- Anonymous, June 02, 1999

"Balanced quotes?"... hmmm....

"The truth is not always the same as the majority decision."-- Pope John Paul II

-- Anonymous, June 02, 1999

Rick,

You have twice referenced me to your favorite poet. Your post in this thread reminded me of a quote from one of my favorite poets.

I am the entertainer

And I know just where I stand

Another serenader

And another long-haired band

Today I am your champion

I may have won your hearts

But I know the game, you'll forget my name

And I won't be here in another year

If I don't stay on the charts.

AND my favorite

Ah, it took me years to write it

They were the best years of my life

It was a beautiful song

But it ran too long

If you're gonna have a hit

You gotta make it fit

So they cut it down to 3:05

I am the entertainer

The idol of my age

I make all kinds of money

When I go on the stage

Ah, you've seen me in the papers

I've been in the magazines

But if I go cold

I won't get sold

I'll get put in the back in the discount rack

Like another can of beans

I hope this applies to all of us after a memorable, blessed, non- event. Remember, stick and stones...

-- Anonymous, June 02, 1999

Sorry for the irritating spacing above. Let me try again.

I am the entertainer And I know just where I stand Another serenader And another long-haired band Today I am your champion I may have won your hearts But I know the game, you'll forget my name And I won't be here in another year If I don't stay on the charts.

AND my favorite

Ah, it took me years to write it They were the best years of my life It was a beautiful song But it ran too long If you're gonna have a hit You gotta make it fit So they cut it down to 3:05

I am the entertainer The idol of my age I make all kinds of money When I go on the stage Ah, you've seen me in the papers I've been in the magazines But if I go cold I won't get sold I'll get put in the back in the discount rack Like another can of be

-- Anonymous, June 02, 1999

Seems to me "balanced media quotes" is an oxymoron.

-- Anonymous, June 02, 1999

Uh...cl...???Billy Joel???? American Poet????

You left out his best line from that song, btw: 'so I learned to dance... with a hand in my pants... and I'd rub my neck and I'd write em a check and they'd go their merry way...'

Night cl. As Billy always said, 'don't take any sh*t from anybody.'

-- Anonymous, June 02, 1999

Discount this Gene: "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. " - Albert Einstein (1879-1955)

"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on. " - Sir Winston Churchill (1874-1965)

"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self- evident." - Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

We have now reached the stage where it is being violently opposed. Voices of reason are being ridiculed. Gene you should be ashamed of that swipe. Pathetic.

-- Anonymous, June 02, 1999

Interesting just how the NERC spokesperson is quite aware of who Rick Cowles is. Something tells me they're very, very aware of his viewpoints.

So not only are the lawyers gonna make a killing so are the PR folks. Assuming, of course, that the legal system and the media survive somewhat intact.

-- Anonymous, June 02, 1999

It's unfortunate that the NERC spokesperson made this statement. A more appropriate response would have stuck to disagreement of the issues, not the individual.

Even though I am an outspoken "polyanna" who is confinced by the facts he has seen that the actual transition to the year 2000 will have no impact on power production and distribution, I do not share the spokespersons conclusion that the industry has "discounted" Rick. I believe that he should be credited for helping forcus the electric utility industry on the issues of Y2K, particularly in embedded systems.

The industry findings that embedded systems y2k problems are almost always minor are quite clear to those working in the industry. But who knew that a year, two years ago?? No one...and what if the outcome had been different? If possible signficant problems had not been "speculated", we may have never had the opportunity to look.

Now what I do have a problem with is the Y2K prognosticators (is this a real word?) who speculated, and now in the face of actual findings still refuse to accept the facts, even when confirmed by second, third, and more sources directly working in Y2K. I do not see Rick in this category either, for I have seen him adjust his opinion based on emerging facts...the same as I and many others have done.

Now on to the issue - see the post on "how the utility industry is completing remediation so quickly".

Regards,

-- Anonymous, June 04, 1999

What I found interesting about that story was that it went on to point out that the two companies in question had contracted with TAVA/RW Beck- the very company where Rick used to be Year 2000 Director! Funny how Rick can have so little credibility, yet he was Y2K director at a firm these two power companies saw fit to use...

-- Anonymous, June 04, 1999