from http://www2.gol.com/users/png/:

The May 31, 1999 issue of the "Nikkei Weekly" newspaper ran 2 front page Y2K articles. Here's a few highlights from the lead story:

"With only seven months left until 2000, Japanese companies are hurrying to inspect their computer systems for the year 2000 problem. Government offices and major companies seem to be almost prepared for the so-called Y2K problem, but some small and midsize companies have fallen behind.

The cost of testing and upgrading or replacing systems is seen as a burden for small and midsize companies, which already are suffering in the poor economic situation. Some companies are being forced to change entire computer systems because they waited too long and do not have time to fix the current equipment.

But a survey released in April by the Japanese government shows that preparations toward resolving the Y2K problem have gained radically since the beginning of the year. 'Simulation tests were done in about 60-80% of the office systems and 50-70% of the important control systems by March. That is up 10-20 percentage points compared with the survey of last December,' the report states."

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"In a similar problem that is not a Y2K issue, Pioneer Electronic Corp. car-navigation systems produced in the 1992-1996 period are expected to malfunction after Aug. 22 because of a problem with map data sent via satellite. Other companies' systems were prepared for the change, but one Pioneer system was not. The company has repaired 140,000 of the 270,000 units sold in the period."

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"Overall, major companies have almost completed checking or replacing systems in offices and factories for the Y2K problem."

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"But the financial impact of Y2K-related checks and replacements is a big issue for small and midsize companies. Local governments have created a consulting sector to help such companies with checking their systems. But the number of companies using the consulting services is not as big as expected. 'With the poor economic situation, small and midsize companies may not have enough time or money to think about the importance of the problem,' said an official at the Tokyo consulting office.

According to a March survey by the research institute of Zenshinren Bank, about 25.4% of small and midsize companies said they had already done Y2K simulation tests. Adding the companies that had ongoing tests, the figure reached about 45%.

However, 13.2% of the companies said they are not considering such tests and 21.2% said the problem does not apply to them. 'Some may not be realizing the importance of the risk,' the report said."

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"A subsidiary of Pasona Inc., Japan's leading temporary-employment agency, is sending former engineers who are in their 50s and 60s to more than 20 companies to support the Y2K conversion process. 'We have gotten more than 200 orders since last December, and it is continuing to rise,' said a Pasona spokesman."

And from the other front page article about banks:

"Major Japanese financial institutions are catching up with Western rivals in tackling the year 2000 computer problem, according to industry officials and analysts. Despite a widespread view that Japan's commercial banks lag behind U.S. and European banks in coping with the issue, they are rapidly proceeding with compliance tests on the actual computer systems used for daily financial settlements. Almost all Western banks are conducting tests on rehearsal machines. The Japanese banks expect to finalize contingency plans by the end of June."

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"Japanese banks have been under heavy criticism from Western financial industries, especially in the U.S., which contend that the Japanese banks have delayed in Y2K compliance.

But according to a survey by the Japanese Prime Minister's Office, by this past March, 90% of Japanese banks, regardless of the size of the organization, had already corrected Y2K problems in their programs and 95% had conducted mock tests in which they deliberately entered the Jan. 1, 2000, date. Banks are expected to finish both the program-correction procedures and testing by September."

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"Most Japanese commercial banks have been conducting their year 2000 compliance tests on the settlement system that they are using in daily business,' said Satoshi Kimura, a Sanwa Bank assistant general manager and secretary of its Y2K committee.

He said that no financial institutions in other countries have conducted compliance tests on their actual settlement systems.

'Testing without using actual machines can only reveal the problems of applications, but does not detect any problems in hardware or operating systems,' he added."

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"Moody's Investors Service of the U.S. has changed its stance toward Japanese major banks regarding the Y2K problem from concern to 'unlikely to expect risks which may result in drastic change in the ratings of banks."

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"Another rating agency, Fitch IBCA, said in a report issued in early May, 'Over the past six months...we have seen sufficient progress to conclude that Japan's response to the Y2K problem, albeit initially belated, is not far behind, or may even be ahead of the other Group of 10 countries."

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"Since December, the Bank of Japan has conducted six industrywide Y2K compliance tests, involving almost all financial institutions and organizations such as the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Tokyo International Financial Futures Exchange, and it said that all the tests were successful. The central bank plans to conduct another three tests by the end of June."

Until next time...PNG

-- a (a@a.a), June 01, 1999

Answers

This reminds me of what Gary North said a few weeks back:

The only way he could be wrong is that if Y2k never was a problem and we were all hoodwinked by those who said it was.

In this case, if Japan could go from near last to almost complete in a month or two: what was there to worry about?

I also read that the USA State Department went from something like 30% Y2K compliance to 60% between March and April (OMB figures).

Again, either Y2K never was aproblem, OR ..... the alternative.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), June 01, 1999.

My bet stays with Cory Hamasaki and Ed Yourdon and Ed Yardeni.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), June 01, 1999.

The same sort of scenario applies to government departments. You've either got to believe that the Social Security Administration (SSA) spent the last ten years at the pork barrel wasting millions of taxpayer dollars fixing things that didn't need fixed or that a large number of other government departments are up to their eyebrows in serious kim chee.

You've either got to believe that SSA is filled to the brim with incompetent management and IS staff or that somebody over at the FFA is being a bit overly optimistic. How is it possibly that what took the SSA 10 years to accomplish, the IRS can accomplish in 2 years? What magnificant marvels of software engineering exist at the IRS and why didn't the SSA simply outsource its Y2K work to the them?

For what it's worth, the SSA has much better track record than the IRS, when it comes to implementing information systems technology. Not that they haven't had their own share of IS trouble but the people I've spoken to who work there are fairly dedicated and proud of their organization. They take their jobs seriously and I suspect that the SSA may turn out to be the only department that got it right.

That's too bad because even SSA will have a difficult time if those around them neglected to do their jobs.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), June 02, 1999.

Arnie, ten years ago, the SSA couldn't just replace entire systems, remediation tools were unheard of, staff did a line by line fix on the enterprise. I don't think windowing came about until later as an alternative to expansion.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), June 02, 1999.

Windowing has been in use since the dawn of computing my dear. And I doubt that even a silver bullet would do the FAA much good at this point.

-- a (a@a.a), June 02, 1999.

There has been a big increase in the number and quality of automated tools in recent years; there's little doubt that has made a difference. At the same time, it's hard to believe that some federal agencies are in such good shape as they claim. I still wonder about those approximately 67,000 supposedly "noncritical" systems that nobody ever talks about. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the number of "critical" systems hasn't dropped again, below the 6,123 number used at the end of March. (It was 9,100 just 18 months before, remember.)

Regarding Japan: I get whiplash trying to follow Japanese govt. Y2K reports, and have reached the sad conclusion that they are essentially worthless. In this case, for instance, does the Prime Minister's Office ever communicate with the Financial Supervisory Agency? If the FSA December report about the Y2K status of 19 of Japan's largest banks was correct (almost half had completed only 25% of necessary repairs; only two had finished 75%), then there is no way in Tokyo that the Prime Minister's Office can be right now. Look at how much "spaghetti code" those banks have.

Japan may be in good shape or in bad shape on Y2K, but I've given up trying to reach any firm conclusions on its status from these reports. They almost make our govt. and press reports look reliable by comparison.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), June 02, 1999.