i missed seeing moneyline last nite with dr. yardeni. i would be interested in knowing what he had to say, especially regarding investments and if he had any advice or suggestions.thanks!

-- dory (crtwheel@eburg.com), June 01, 1999

Answers

I caught the brief segment that mentioned y2k. Yardeni was interviewed with someone else, who was a DGI. Yardeni said he was most concerned about the overseas situation, and then said he expected the yield on the US treasury notes to drop to 4%. The other guy said 4%! If interest rates are 4% then the Dow will go to 20,000. And that is how the segment ended.

Of course, Ed ws referring to a flight to quality, where all the money would be poured into Treasuries, at the expense of everything else. I would expect all other interest rates to jump way up. That plus much more would be very bad news for the Dow. All and all, very funny for someone who had a clue to y2k.

-- David Holladay (davidh@brailleplanet.org), June 01, 1999.

I also saw it. If you were uninitiated, Yardeni would not have convinced you of anything; he's always very soft-spoken about it. I'm guessing that he's tired of being the Wacko of Wall St. If he's right or wrong, the record of his stance is already very clear. I wouldn't be surprised if he was dropping back into the shadows to do a little damage control.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), June 01, 1999.

I caught the piece. Ed was soft-spoken, as mentioned above, using the illustration of ball bearings manufactured in Brazil. His DGI counterpart remarked at how Yardeni's warnings have ameliorated Y2K, but I sensed a bit of flattery on his part. I was somewhat dismayed when Ed seemed almost too eager to add how Y2K is "not the end of the world" with a hint of chuckle. Depends on who you are, where you live, who your neighbors are, and how you define 'end'. In other words, Ed's 'not the end' remark was in no way suggestive that an individual might consider Y2K preparations beyond juggling a portfolio. The final spin (how the Dow will soar to 20000 by the end of 2000) was of course predicted by the DGI and left everyone (including thousands of viewers) with a big smile. Notwithstanding, it appeared as though Ed was about to counter the final spin, but the clock struck 00 and it was time for the sponsors to do their thing.

Next time, Ed, mention your online book. Don't be ashamed to plug your website. Few would object to the notion of a respected economist who has published a -free- book on the Internet which could otherwise easily be a hot seller. Ask cnn.com to link directly to your book if they haven't done so already. It is an excellent tool.

-- Zach Anderson (z2k@usa.net), June 01, 1999.

Dr. Edward Yardeni's online book:

http://www.webcom.com/yardeni/y2kbook.html

-- Linkmesiter (linl@librarian.edu), June 01, 1999.

Remember that when I asked him if it was true that he used to program mainframes in S/370 assembly language, Dr. Ed Yardeni replied, "Yes, I did, it was fun."

Of all the economists, he understands mainframes. MVI, the rest of you mainframers, programmers, consultants, Yardeni, like Ed Yourdon, understands the big system problem.

Here, I'll just type a few random terms, IEUASM, IFOX00, IEWL, CCW, EQU, PROC OPTIONS(MAIN), MVCL, DSORG=DA. I'm worried. Yardeni and Yourdon are worried. I know what these terms mean and they do too.

-- cory (kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net), June 01, 1999.

The dgi was more than ready for a fight with Yardeni on y2k's affect on the market. The dgi actually said that all businesses and corps are ready for the turnover because they have ordered extra supplies etc. Ed, it seemed to me, avoided the fight. He was quick to say that he saw a recession coming but that was as gloomy as he got.

Me thinks that like Yourdon he realizes that the arguing is over.

Yardeni is a bull...y2k must be hard for him. He also works for a bank that seeks investers. I think he is hoping for the best but is fearing the worst.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), June 01, 1999.