I finally got tired of being asked, so I came up with this boilerplate response to the people who are starting to wake up to the issue. If they ask, they get an e-mail with this attached:

"You are reading this because, for whatever reason, you wanted my opinion of Y2K. I no longer offer it freely because I have grown weary of trying to explain my position and even more weary of being perceived as a wacko because of someones media-tainted perception. Im not interested in a debate, my mind is at ease with my beliefs and my personal preparations.

I have been researching in earnest for over six months now. People always seem to want to know what the computer guy thinks of all this Y2K stuff, so I thought I would at least try to be prepared with a little knowledge ahead of time. All this research has led me to the conclusion that no one has a clue what is going to happen. There is no expert to ask, no central authority on the subject. The local media doesnt know how to even begin reporting the problem. The Internet is an endless maze of conflicting information.

Obtaining information directly from a company or entity is at best frustrating. No entity or company will divulge any failures, lest their clients flee to those that have not. And no company will state their successes, lest they be sued if they happen to be wrong. Our society has created a self-defeating veil of secrecy, in effect, living and dying by the litigation sword. Our government isnt concerned with fixing the problem, they are focusing on containing panic and protecting us from ourselves.

My opinion is that the Year 2000 bug and however it manifests itself is quickly becoming irrelevant. The real danger is now a wide spread loss of confidence in the system as a whole, and its subsequent collapse and public panic. A recent poll in USA today stated that 55% of people in the US were going to take extra money out of the bank because of concerns about Y2K. Assuming that people will act in their own best interests financially, (which is pretty valid, based on history and human nature) this statistic means far more than a need for extra cash in the vaults. A large percentage of people have decided to reallocate their 401k funds to more conservative positions, if not bail out altogether. It does not take a great leap in logic to figure out that the party may soon be over for a stock market just itching for a reason to correct.

Media coverage has been somewhat spotty and inconsistent to this point, but only because this is a boring computer issue to most reporters. 60 Minutes broke the ice in the mainstream media, practically guaranteeing the Y2K-related destruction of Washington D.C. The next day, one analysts concerns about bank preparedness for Y2K resulted in a downgrade recommendation that pummeled bank stocks. I find it hardly coincidental that the market had its roughest week in a long time following these reports. Once the subject becomes oh-too-predictably sensationalized, the real circus will begin. There will be movies of the week, special news reports, then the parade of wackos on Jenny, Geraldo and Jerry. People will begin to listen to those who all along stated that there could be problems, but only after they realize it is their wallet at risk. Then the panic will be the problem.

The Y2K debate has brought other disturbing things to the spotlight: vulnerabilities that may benefit those who wish ill-will upon our country. There is an ongoing war on the Internet between the FBI and a group of hackers that the hackers appear to be winning. The hackers are pissed because the FBI is tracking them down and prosecuting them. They have succeeded in shutting down or vandalizing many .gov sites already and are threatening many more. The FBI is clearly outwitted, and they are probably one of the best-equipped agencies attempting to deal with techno-terrorism. This is merely the work of one small group of hackers. The damage that could be done by a well-financed, orchestrated effort is mind-boggling.

There are rumors of year 2000 viruses that are set to trigger on January 1 to take advantage of the uncertainty and possible chaos. The recent Melissa virus is a prime example of how quickly damage can be done. It wont be long until someone creates a virus that will replicate and spread without actually opening an e-mail message. Or, lacking this feature, all they would have to do is put cute on the subject line and our company would spread it like typhoid. So the mail server goes down, so what? might be the next question. But the fact is that if the virus is virulent enough, such mail volume could be created that the Internet itself would be utterly crippled, and the connection to many valuable and irreplaceable sources of real-time information effectively severed.

We have not made many friends recently in the world community. The list of potential trouble spots grows daily: Kosovo, China, Iraq, the Koreas, Russia. Pretty soon, our leadership will cost us dearly. The world is now aware that we are vulnerable in many areas: oil production and distribution, energy, communications, weapons systems, water treatment, chemical production, financial services, transportation, etc. etc.. It doesnt take too much imagination to imagine hmmmm, what would I do if I were a terrorist.

There are going to be real problems because of the Year 2000 bug on January 1, dont get me wrong. But, my opinion is that by then we will wish they were all we had to worry about.

You need to decide on a personal level what all this means to you. To me, it was prudent to prepare to be mostly self-sufficient for a period of six months and to prepare for a variety of disruptions, be they economic, societal or infrastructure. This preparation included food, water, medicines and enough supplies for four adults and two small children. It also included extra cash and making other financial arrangements.

It is my opinion that there exists a REAL possibility of serious problems Y2K-related and other, in fact a HIGH probability, and I am not willing to trust any government or media source for information or advice when it comes to the safety of my family. Are you?"

-- ariZONEa (too_many_lawyers@work.com), June 01, 1999

Answers

Thanks for sharing ariZONEa,

Did you ever develop a prep checklist to add to your letter?

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 01, 1999.

Good job, in the Zone

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), June 01, 1999.

Tell them to get a copy of Time Bomb 2000 and read it fast. Finish your on preps. The clock is tickimg. Be there for them if they have any other questions.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), June 01, 1999.

Thanks, Zone. You have stated why it is no longer relevant to me what my utility tells me, and whether what they have said is actually true. There are too many other factors which, taken in combination, convinced me to prepare.

I think to a large extent the "loss of confidence in the system" was caused, or at least critically aggravated, by the arrogance of the major players (feds, utilities, etc.) to take their remediation efforts down to the wire. If they had finished a year or so ago (and been fully open about the results), then the public might have had a basis for knowing what the outcome would be and whether there was a basis for alarm.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), June 01, 1999.

See also...

LINKS REQUESTS: Which Are Your Favorite Y2K Preparation Checklists? (For The New GI)

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 000shh

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 01, 1999.

The debate has been over for quite awhile now. If you continue to participate in it, you will be caught with your pants down. What are YOU going to do next? You can get up and do something about it, or you can cover your heads with a blanket and "hope and wish" it will all go away! Nice job ZONE!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 01, 1999.

ariZONEa, I'm no psychic, but I predict that if things are bad come January, you will get a few knocks on your door. I further predict that the knockers will be those who you emailed :)

Better get extra everything.

-- klm (klm@nwhre.not), June 01, 1999.

Yeah, thats the real question. The system sucks. You gotit.

But I'm ready.

Got plans?

-- Ready Joe (y2kjoe@mymail.com), June 01, 1999.

Roleigh Martin's A Y2K Handout You Can Use With Your Neighbors is a concise and comprehensive introduction to the problem. It's available in several formats.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), June 02, 1999.