I live in NE Ohio, about 30 mi. from the Perry Nuclear Plant. Anyone know if it's compliant, whether the NRC will shut it down, and, if so, will that affect power elsewhere in Ohio? I haven't been able to find this information anywhere, and even Michael Hyatt doesn't know! So anyone, please help me out? Do I need those water barrels? Thanks! Linda701@aol.com

-- Anonymous, June 01, 1999

Answers

The NRC will actually allow licensees to break their licenses in order to stay online. This is a clear regulatory absurdity that ignores the statutory mandate to protect public safety. It has been twisted into keeping the lights on is more important than nuclear plant Y2K certainty.

You can see and hear US Congressman Ed Markey describe this problem via Real Player at http://realserver.regiononline.com/ramgen/tmia/Markey3.ra

http://www.tmia.com/y2k.htm

-- Anonymous, June 01, 1999

Linda, the Perry 1 nuclear plant is operated by The Illuminating Company (Cleveland Electric). The Illuminating Company is owned by FirstEnergy, along with Toledo Edison, Ohio Edison, and Penn Power. Like many utility holding companies, FirstEnergy files with the SEC and has a Year 2000 statement.

There is some information in the SEC Year 2000 statements, but before I get to that, it's important that you have a clear picture of the pyramidal type of organization that makes up FirstEnergy. At the bottom of the pyramid are the actual generating plants, a mix of fossil plants and nuclear. There are 4 operated by Toledo Ed., 6 operated by Illuminating (including Perry 1), and 10 generating plants in Ohio Ed's area. The next level up in this pyramidal structure is Penn Power. Penn is a subsidiary of Ohio Ed and operates two of Ohio's plants. Up one more level and we have Toledo, Illuminating, and Ohio, each with their own regional electric supply area. Then at the top is FirstEnergy.

Why is it important to recognize the form of this pyramid? Because this is a pretty common form for large utilities to have, and because the ONLY details about Y2K status are issued from the parent company -- in this case FirstEnergy. In other words, here we have 20 different generating plants, four regional operating companies, and ONE reporting entity on Y2K status.

FirstEnergy does not delineate the individual Y2K status of either the companies under it, or the generating plants. I have seen a couple of utility holding companies break down the company information, but most do not. We get a generic overall status and that's it. This is why you cannot find specific information about The Illuminating Company, let alone Perry 1.

FirstEnergy's SEC Year 2000 statement for the period ending Sept. 30 of last year estimated that their Y2K project would be completed by September, 1999. Also the total estimated project cost at that time was $111 million with $49 million spent.

In FE's 10K for the period ending Dec. 31, 1998, September 1999 was still the estimated completion month but the total estimated cost had decreased to $92 million with $63 million spent.

In the most recent 10Q for the period three months later (March 31, 1999) the estimated completion is now for June 30, 1999 (the NERC target date). The estimated total project expense went up slightly from the prior report to $93 million with $73 million spent to date.

FirstEnergy did not give any estimated percentages of project phases completed, they only said they were finished with the inventory and assessment and working on the remediation.

As for the NRC shutting down plants, that will NOT happen on July 1st, if it happens at all. July 1st is the deadline for a final report to the NRC on the status of nukes. According to the NRC, this info will be reviewed, more specifics obtained if needed, and discussions will take place about any actions to be taken if they are deemed necessary. Do not expect to hear about any shutdown decisions until at least Sept-Oct., if not later than that.

That's the info which is available and upon which you will have to base your personal risk management decisions. Some people can envision all the parts of the pyramid proceeding smoothly along the same remediation schedule the parent company outlines. Others see this as unlikely. Unfortunately, we will not know which it is, nor do we know whether the status information going up the pyramid levels are completely accurate or if there has been some optimistic slant put on as the reports filter up through management levels.

Only you can decide what your trust factor is and what level of risk-tolerance you feel comfortable with. If any of us knew exactly how the myriad interconnected global aspects of Y2K would play out - including our government - then decision making would be easy. But nobody has a crystal ball, and contingency plans are therefore in order. Remember, contingency plans are NOT based on KNOWING. The are made to help mitigate possibilities, not certainties. I don't think anybody can tell you with absolute assurance that you will or will not need those water barrels. The question is only what you believe is best for you, given your own circumstances.

-- Anonymous, June 01, 1999