Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, it appears that there really is not that much GOOD NEWS to go around.

I know some of the regulars here have poo poohed this problem but in conjuction with all of the other events at the turn of the century, this can not help.....

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http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ts/story.html?s=v/nm/19990531/ts/science_sunspots_1.html

Solar Storm Peak Seen In 2000

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The year 2000 could see electrical power outages, satellites veering off-course and cellular phone and pager disruptions as the number of sunspots and flares, solar storms and other ``space weather'' hits its cyclical maximum, scientists said Monday.

``We call this the other Y2K problem,'' said JoAnn Joselyn, leader of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Environment Center, during the 194th meeting of the American Astronomical Society. ``We don't quite know how bad the effects are going to be. We do know the ionosphere is going to be disturbed.''

Geomagnetic storms on earth and other results of the increased solar activity are expected to reach their 11-year peak between January and April 2000, said Richard Altrock of the Air Force Research Laboratory in Sunspot, New Mexico.

Altrock devised a new method of watching and timing sun surface activity and applied it to the last three solar cycles to pinpoint the roughly four-month window during which he expects solar activity to reach its maximum next year.

He also predicted the number of sunspots in the coming maxima, dubbed Cycle 23, will reach approximately 160, roughly the same number as seen during the most-recent two peaks in 1989 and 1979.

The cyclical increase in solar activity occurs as the sun's magnetic field reverses every 10 or 11 years.

The accompanying release of highly charged particles and radiation toward earth on solar winds at speeds of up to 1 million mph or 440 kms per second can disrupt radio communications, form sky displays known as northern lights and create enough drag to cause satellites to lose altitude, explained Joselyn.

The magnetic fields in the sky also create currents on the ground, usually small and subtle but which can be magnified via long high-voltage power lines.

This can burn out power companies' electrical transformers and cause power outages such as occurred in 1989 in parts of the East Coast and across Canada's Quebec province, she said.

Related events such as solar flares occur more frequently before the solar maximum, but major flares can continue for two or three years afterward.

Each solar flare releases energy equivalent to 1 million, hundred-megaton nuclear explosions and accelerate particles through space that are hazardous to satellites and astronauts and can disturb radio transmissions.

Richard Canfield, a physicist at Montana State University in Bozeman, said his researchers by early 2001 will operate two powerful new instruments -- a spectroscopic imager and a suite of solar telescopes -- designed to study solar flares.

In the meantime, Joselyn said her group in Boulder, Colo., will continue operating round-the-clock, using a satellite to monitor the solar winds, and can give companies and the public 30- to 60-minute advance warnings of increased solar activity incidents to help them prepare.

``So we can tell what's coming,'' she said.

-- helium (heliumavid@yahoo.com), May 31, 1999

Answers

Even worse, I believe that I have read elsewhere that the power grids of today are even more sensitive to such phenomona than a decade ago!

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), May 31, 1999.

And of course there is always the Leonid (?) meteor showers that might do some Custom by Crunch on the satelites too. They are expected to peak sometime in 2000.

-- Ken Seger (kenseger@EARTHLINK.NET), May 31, 1999.

There was a brief spot on the evening news tonight re: solar flares, with the scientist stating they expect 100+ flares per day at its peak in March 2000...grids could go down, satellites and all the attenuated technologies (pagers/cellular) could be affected. They also noted the intensity of the flares would be increasing.

-- Shelia (Shelia@active-stream.com), June 01, 1999.

Put another log on the fire... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), June 01, 1999.

I wonder if this is some kind of preimptive (sp?) strike spin control. You know " NO people the power is not out because of y2k computer problems, its because of the sun." They could buy themselves all kinds of time with this one. Everytime the power goes out or phones don't work or satellites or whatever they blame it on the sun. And where do we verify sun activity for a particular day? NASA very esy to control. Then our faith in computers is never wavered, they buy themselves more time to fix it and all the while we are told its the sun. What can you do about the sun? Its just one of those things like earthquakes or hurricanes.

-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), June 01, 1999.

There will be some very large interests with very large stakes wanting to prove the problem either is or is not Y2K-related. For instance, the insurance companies who have declined to pay for Y2K-related problems. Should make for some interesting and extended litigation battles.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), June 01, 1999.

Read all about it at Spac e Science News, Oct. 19, 1998 (NASA)

Honest, fellas, it's not a conspiracy, it's just the way things are. Sunspot cycles are not scheduled in by DOE.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), June 02, 1999.

Tom -

No, Silly - they are scheduled by the FAA!! and sunspots are known to be 100% compliant as of last October...Guarrrunteeeed!!

-- Valkyrie (anon@please.net), June 03, 1999.