I agree with Ed's general pessimism, and I am not swayed by the good news postings of Y2K Pro and people like him. First, to the extent these optimists are influenced by the blab of the Clinton administration, they are on very shaky ground in my opinion. But for the sake of argument, let us assume that all their good news really does pan out. What do you get when you have a mixture of good news and demonstrable bad news (such as how far behind are not only small businesses, but also a great many intermediate sized businesses)? What you have overall is a very bad situation. And that's just considering the United States in isolation.

Now let us consider the rest of the global economy. There is Europe, where Euro conversion has been scheduled for this year, the year leading up to Jan. 1, 2000. Was this decision not total insanity? And it gets worse as you go around the world. I simply cannot avoid the conclusion that the global economy, in bad shape already due to recent meltdowns in Asia and elsewhere, is going to take one hell of a hit. I don't know if there will be a depression or merely a very severe recession. I would love to be proven wrong on all this. I'd stay up all night drinking champagne. But I can't for the life of me see any way out of this situation.

I do disagree with Ed, though, when he writes that software remediation efforts which are way behind cannot be rescued. This disagreement is based on my belief that the year-field expansion approach is horribly and unnecessarily laborious.

I do not wish on this sad occasion to toot my own horn and mention my own website, so I won't. Let me just say that for a year-field expansion project that's in a mess, there are alternatives, and they are explained by many more people than just myself. Use your pumpkin to evaluate, that's why God gave it to you. Do not be dissuaded by counterarguments given by the proponents of year-field expansion (e.g. "why, your approach is just postponing the problem".) These counterarguments I regard as empty spin worthy of the Clinton administration.I

-- Peter Errington (petere@ricochet.net), May 31, 1999