Subject:	Kiss Your Asses Good-Bye
Date:	1999/05/27
Author:	fedinfo <fedinfo@halifax.com>
	Posting History

Venezuela Faces $1.5 Billion Y2K Computer Problem Full Coverage Year 2000 Problem     CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela needs to spend $1.5 billion in an effort to prevent possible computer chaos coinciding with the change to the year 2000, with the nation's electrical system particularly vulnerable, senior officials said Wednesday.   Presidential Chief of Staff Alfredo Pena said the previous government, which left office in February, made absolutely no preparations for a problem that requires urgent attention.   ``Public services could be paralyzed, mainly because of problems with electricity,'' he said.   The head of the government Central Office of Statistics and Computing, Gustavo Mendez, said Venezuela was one of the least well-prepared countries in the world.   ``We are very behind and it is very, very serious. We need $1.5 billion for this, which was not approved by the previous government,'' Pena told journalists at the Miraflores presidential palace.   ========     Look, Pollyannas are IDIOTS. Not mistaken. Not confused. Not misguided.   IDIOTS.   The US gets 17% of its OIL from Venezuela. In a few more months it will get NONE from Venezuela.   Are the middle eastern countries, from which we obtain OIL, ready? No.   We will not be getting ONE DROP of OIL from overseas. NOT ONE DROP.   This country collapses in a heartbeat without OIL.   Not only that, but the OIL is worthless within refining capability. Name ONE refiner that is remdiated, tested and back in production.   Not one.   Only an IDIOT does not understand the consequrnces of this. Hence, Pollyannas. It is not POSSIBLE to overlook the gravity of the impending Venezuelan collapse. ONLY someone who deceives and LIES to oneself can explain it away.   Like brock, egan, dechert, echristi, slider, et al.  They are liars and deceivers. They dissuade people from preparing their families.   "Nothing bad will happen". "Only local problems overseas will occur"   Millions and millions of people are going to die as a direct and indirect result of Y2K. Most will do absolutely nothing to prepare themselves and their families.   Now.....   Name one significant OIL exporting country that is PROVEN to be compliant in their OIL exporting capability. That capability to include all the myriad of dependencies.   NOT one.   Only clueless, abject idiots, HAVING the ability to prepare, will remain in populated areas.   Now we will anticipate the obligatory whining by brock . Devoid of any facts, depleted of information, egan will rear his consumately ignorant keyboard. Then, the master of cognitive dissonance, echristi will regale us with self-deceptive blather. While dechert will counsel yet another unsuspecting,  drooling moron not to prepare. Like my own brother.     Not one of them will explain why the as yet to begin Venezuelans, by their own admission without the funds, are not toast.   The answer is that they simply do not LIKE the conclusion that we are certain to experience complete economic collapse. The are utterly ignorant of the incredibly precarious financial context of Y2K, the mountains of debt, the totally unprepared global banking system.   Collapse is inevitable. Get out of populated areas now, with your families, if you have any common sense left at all.     http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990526/tc/yk _venezuela_1.html -- Paul Milne If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast. --== Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/ ==-- ---Share what you know. Learn what you don't.---

-- a (a@a.a), May 27, 1999

Answers

My sister-in-law is from South America. The economy in Brazil is so bad that her father had his banking account confiscated by the government. He had to make due on the cash he had stashed in his house. This is the honest to God truth.

A little off the oil topic, but oh well.

-- GeeGee (GeeGee@madtown.com), May 27, 1999.

Can anyone give me a working link to this Reuters article?

-- Reporter (reporter_atlarge@hotmail.com), May 27, 1999.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990526/tc/ yk_venezuela_1.html

-- a (a@a.a), May 27, 1999.

My guess is that the $1.5 billion would do nothing but expatriate the elites' backsides to Montana or some private Carribean isles. I have not heard any good news about Venezuela.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 27, 1999.

This link might last longer than the one from Yahoo!:

http://infoseek.go.com/Content?arn=a3276rittz- 19990526&qt=venezuela&sv=IS&lk=noframes&col=NX&kt=A&ak=news1486

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), May 27, 1999.

Puddintame, One of my best friends is from Caracas. She's a WONDERFUL person. Now you can't say you haven't heard any good news about Venezuela.

-- Malcolm Drake (jumpoff@echoweb.com), May 27, 1999.

Minus the paranoid ravings, we are left with the solid prediction that US oil imports will drop to ZERO (NOT ONE DROP) within "a few months". I'd like to toss out a couple questions for those here:

1) How many months should we let pass before we decide if this prediction has come true (which would ruin Milne's perfect record)? I'd suggest 18. Anyone else?

2) What is the probability that US oil imports will fall more than 50% below 1998 levels for ANY 12-month period during the next five years? I'd place this probability at <5%. Anyone else?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 27, 1999.

Yes, there are many wonderful people in Venezuela. I used to live there while my dad helped drill those oil wells ...he risked his life to drill I might add. Things are bad enough there now...I'd hate to think they could get worse. Six months is not enough time for Venezuelans to do anything. They are so slow...and there is so much corruption in the government. Well, Paul...I'm beginning to see your points of view more clearly...thanks for posting this a@a.a...

-- lurker 13 (lurker13@not.now), May 27, 1999.

Paul posts articles to back up his predictions. No one seems to be denying the sorry condition of these countries. I have been stressing the international ramifications for many months and I have difficulty arguing against massive problems in many industries. To expect the US will not suffer as a result of these issues is to have one's head in the sand.

Pumping oil, transporting oil, refining it, loading it , shipping it, unloading it, distributing it. All this and the electric utilities are seriously suspect.

I am playing a high stakes hand. I cannot afford to look at just one player at the table. If my view becomes too focused on one issue I will be unable to make balanced decisions.

For example, what will happen to the banks in Indonesia and Venezuela? What will happen to their economies? How about the Middle East? Everywhere at once.

Our money-center banks will not be able to take the hit.

I don't need to look at this country to see what y2k will do to us. International devastation will come home to roost.

Jump to the natural gas industry. This is the way y2k works. All over all at once. I have been assured that there may be some blackouts and brownouts. No big deal. Natural gas travels through one and a half MILLION miles of pipeline in this country and it does so under pressure maintained by having electicity available. But it will not be available eveywhere at proper levels at all times.

So what happens? You tell me. 53% of homes in this country depend on natural gas for heat. This is a high stakes hand.

How about water? That seems to be hit or miss. I don't like those odds either. But they are sitting at the table looking at me.

Do I think there will be water in the Middle East? Oil will become a second rate commodity. Remember, all at the same time.

Maybe I can call South America to see what is happenning. Odds are the phones will not work in Venezuela. And elsewhere.

Back at home the markets will be in turmoil. How about worldwide? Everywhere at once. Another player at the table.

But enough. War, hunger, anger, thirst, intentionally destructive computer viruses etc. are all players. I need to see all the players and judge the situation as I see it. This is not about playing games about who is right and who is wrong. This is about making a decision based on the little honest information available.

Sometimes I am afraid. In y2k I am only dealt one hand. I will not fail the ones I love. More than anything, I want to be wrong. Can I afford to bet on it?

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), May 27, 1999.

Mike:

Good points. Cascading catastrophes cause cave-ins.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), May 27, 1999.

Malcomb, Yes, I've met some very nice Venezuelans. The bad stuff I'm talking about is all related to y2k.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 27, 1999.

correction . . . Malcolm

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 27, 1999.

Re Flint --

Warning -- The Debunkers and their Memebuster friends are massing to disinfect us memes again. No? Okay, look at this post made by a major Boonkah player this afternoon at Der Boonkah -- is it a call to arms, or what? http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/messageboard/mbs.cgi?acct=mb237006&MyNum=9 27830917&P=Yes&TL=927824470

Debunking Y2k webboard

NEW TOPIC: LETS END THE "NO BODY KNOWS" MYTH WITH "WHAT WE KNOW NOW"

Thursday, 27-May-1999 14:48:37

151.164.57.51 writes:

LETS FORGET THIS "WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN".

LETS ASK WHAT DO WE KNOW THAT WILL WORK.

THEN ASK: "WHAT ARE **THEY** PREPARING FOR??"

The former "Iron Triangle" of North/Yourdon/rest WILL NOT FAIL.

FACT OR FICTION??

1. POWER. They started early 1998 with the Grid will fail. Then it was one of the 3 grids will fail. Now its "isolated shortages".

QUESTION: Where??

So we know that for the vast majority: there will be POWER.

2. Telcos. Power companies and everyone depend on the Telcos which depend on Power. See one above and the statements of the Telco industry.

QUESTION: does anyone know a Telephone Company that will fail?? Answer: WHERE IS THE DATA showing ANY??

3. The BANKS. MYTH ONE: was North and Yourdon's "not enough time to fix. Well it turns out there WAS ENOUGH TIME.

So now comes Myth TWO: banks will fail because of RUNS the BAnks. BUT, the Fed is not too stupid. They now have enough cash to provide a MIN. of $7,000 per household in the US.

CASH. Which inspired one Fed Reserve official to say, "let them run on a bank we are ready for them".

In reality, The average savings per cap. in DEMAND deposits is about $600;head. With the mythical American family of 2.5 thats: $1,500. DOUBLE THAT FOR SAFETY: Say the household has $3,000 in *** demand ** accounts that must be paid on the spot. That is worst case. In reality, 1/2 of the households in the US HAVE NO SAVINGS AND LIVE WEEK TO WEEK. BUT, even at $3,0000 the FED has: $7,000/household.

SOURCE: (FOR DOOMERS): FED.RESERVE BANK (DALLAS) SPOKESPEOPLE AT A DFW/DAMA meeting.

THAT's TWICE.........worst case to fund ALL THE RUNS ON ALL THE BANKS IS IT NOT?????

So, we know the banks would be in business, charge cards work, ATMs work, Telephones will work and POWER WILL BE ON.

WHAT ARE YOU "PREPARING FOR"????????

A DOOM ZOMBIE BULL s--- STORY ON AN INTERNET FORUM???

cpr

(End quote)

-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), May 27, 1999.

Interconnectedness.......the problem is that the connections are endless, and the chances of disruptions are too great to feel good about the future. Milne is certainly worried....and absolutely convinced we are headed for disaster. I appreciate the posts that are taking time to give us information...such as his. With information, even with opinions...we can assess it all and make intelligent decisions. I have a prediction to make...50/50 though..I will be right, or I will be wrong. Here I go. If you live anywhere on earth....you will be affected. Will it be as he believes. Who can be sure...but I have a bad feeling that he may be closer to the truth than I want him to be....time to go grab a Corona!!!!

-- rick shade (Rickoshade@aol.com), May 27, 1999.