Let me throw this out for conjecture. Though I have reasearched this subject for only a short while, it has been thorough enough to notice that the preparation tilt in this forum is decidedly toward fundmental disruptions in our societal foundations, i.e. in commerce, banking, civil unrest, possible relocation, vary degrees of shortages of staple products, with the possiblity of a complete unraveling of civilization and heading towards something short of individual survivalism.

While the intent is not to debate the outcome level caused by Y2k-induced disruptions, it is to offer a sounding board; not for the level of preparations, but their graduation.

Several contributors to these threads, outside of the Milnesian sect, have offered a variety of prepardness ranges, usually basing at six months and going up from there. But what I've noticed is that these preparations are constructed on complete disruptions of services, phones, power, banking. People may say they have a six month supply of food (presumably earmarked to get through to the next growing season) and an amble supply of firewood. Others are prepared to take on their own doctoring and that of others (a noble jesture in my view) while even more are preparing themselves for different types of careers.

The idea of career change, again presumably to a more agrarian lifestyle, brings me to this question. What if the Milnesian senario dones't play out (no offense, Mr. Milne)? What if instead of a societal collapse, we fall into some type of extended severe recession, depression situation. Say food is available, gas is available, banks work on some order, and there is order in society.

Say the financial systems stays in tact to the point that the bills you owe still come do. This calls for preparation on a different level than what is most often projected on this site. It calls for reduced debt, a restrucing of lifestyle to live on less income. It calls for many things that are outside the bounds of traditional survivalists, rebuild society preparations.

Are people making a quantum leap here, going for the all out style of readiness and not considering a lesser senario? I fully understand that for people like Mr. Milne, either outcome matters little, because his lifestyle was predisposed his Y2k predictions long before he became aware of it. So to that, his way will experience little change.

But for everyone else, are you preparing for different levels of outcome, in a more graduated fashion? Seems to me, and tell me differently, that preparing for a six-year or so severe downturn in an economy and society that stays in tact is different from the six-nine-twelve months or twelve year preparations for no power, food or phones.

This is an exercise in curiousty. I am aware of Mr. Hamasaki's three point fallback plan and Scott Olmstead's bugout retreat. But to my knowledge, Olmstead hasn't sold his home in San Diego as of yet. Are other people on this site staging their plans in similar fashion?

I'm always curious, because I'm...

-- Don't Know Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 27, 1999

Answers

"Are people making a quantum leap here, going for the all out style of readiness and not considering a lesser senario? "

Spending a coupla hundred bucks on rice, beans, mac & cheese, dried milk, tuna etc and a cord of firewood ain't exactly going all out. I dare say many here have blown more on pizza & beer in the last six months than on preparation.

You seem to presume we're (on average) stockpiling freeze-dried chateaubriand and cabernet sauvignon.

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), May 27, 1999.

No, I don't Liza. That's not my presumption at all. "All out style of readiness" means preparing for extended disruptions.

-- Don't Know Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 27, 1999.

Loved your phrase "an amble supply of firewood".Conjures up a gentle stroll picking up the odd piece of wood to bring home.

I'm sure many people here are doing their best to plan for as many different scenarios as possible.Despite the number of posts and answers,probably only a fraction of what individuals are actually doing and planning has been put up for public consumption & then only as a reply to a specific query. You might get a more balanced view by referring to the archives.

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), May 27, 1999.

No, many of us are preparing for the subsequent long-term challenges posed by the "short"-term disruptions in service. Ya know, economic cause ---> effect. Many of us think Y2K is gonna do to the economy what the queue ball does to the rest of the rack.

-- Lisa (hello@hey.joe_wanna_give_it_a_go?), May 27, 1999.

I am preparing for what I consider to be the full spectrum of disasters. I have spent more money (investment capital) on depression planning than on apocalyptic planning, but I also have a full range of fire and theft insurance on my house and its contents. I am far from finished with my preparations, but I have just begun to ramp up and hope to have enough time to complete them before significant problems start occurring and prices start to rise meaningfully. I have been slowly withdrawing money from the bank and the markets now for the last 3 weeks.

I spent my lunch hour practicing for societal breakdown by learning how to fire a shotgun. I managed to jam the breach. I can now take it back to the store where I purchased it to have them fix it. I'm glad that I'm starting now instead of in the fall.

I don't know what's going to happen (except for a stock market collapse which I know will happen), but how can people not be preparing or already prepared?

-- nothere nothere (nothere@nothere.com), May 27, 1999.

Sorry Chris. Dyslexia you know. Still, your right. It does bring back nince memories of when we used to do that as kids. The cool Fall breeze. The golden and burgundy hued leaves twisting in the cool Fall breeze. The glistening of oozing maple sap in the late evening before sunset. A broken in pair of jeans and a plaid overcoat. Dogs running ahead as we gathered scrap wood for the woodstove. The sounds of a train going through the pass in the distant valley.

Oops. Sorry folks.

-- Don't Know Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 27, 1999.

try this...

On preparation (Optimist's view)

and this...

Debunky

-- avg joe (.@...), May 27, 1999.

Reminds me that I have a load of firewood being delivered tomorrow, so I get to spend the holiday weekend "ambling" between the mess in my driveway and the woodshed.

DKJ - The preps for the abrupt disruptions (no power, water) are really the most straight forward, and I'm guessing therefore the ones that most people start with. OTOH, a stash of food helps out whether the store shelves are empty or if you have lost your job or if prices have gone up severely.

I have found the area of prepping you brought up to be the most difficult - thinking of what it might entail and prioritizing what to do. I will be going into the rollover with no debt, and with lots of kinds of extra supplies, from clothes to toys (meaning, anything to do with my garden) to vaguely specialty items I might have trouble finding for a while. I'm staying with my job as long as they'll have me, but I think I am also prepared for a long period of unemployment. It is the retirement stage that concerns me if Social Security is gone and my 401k isn't what it needs to be to support me then.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), May 27, 1999.

Joe,

Try talking to folks who've lived through an extended depression. There's nothing we're storing that can't be used later, and given a severe recession/ economic depression scenario, it really wont matter if the financial institutions et al are still open, if one doesn't have the income to make use of them...and *that* is why it will pay off to prepare as extensively as possible.

Arlin Adams

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 27, 1999.

Mr. Decker, er, I mean Joe...

Certainly, your want for a good discussion on economic preparations is welcome. How would one prepare for hard times? Myself, I haven't done much reading on the Great Depression yet, but I realize that me, my partner, and my shareholders may find that our company has no clients if things get bad next year. Bankruptcy would be likely in such times and then... what do I do, then? Paying down my credit card debt now is not an option, but perhaps it will be closer to the end of the year. I was hoping that the bull market would help me out here, but it hasn't.

What skills can I get? What variety of the small and/or home-run type businesses are depression-proof or thrive in a depression? These are questions I'd like answered. Perhaps, we can re-engineer our company to thrive in such a grim landscape where the bills are still getting collected. As for what legislation might come to protect mortgage holders, renter, and credit-card holders, I imagine that something would happen before a registered voter ever got near a voting booth. Certainly, the days of another Great Depression might go differently.

I'm holding the can up and looking forward to everyone's contribution.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), May 27, 1999.

As I've mentioned before, we do need to be prepared to be wrong. This objective has certainly shaped our preparations. If nothing at all happens, we will be in great shape. Except for our house, we have worked hard to get ourselves out of debt. We finally reached that golden point at the end of last month and let me tell you, it feels pretty darn good regardless of how Y2K personally affects us. We had been slowly working towards this for several years anyway but Y2K made us accelerate those plans and sacrifice a few luxuries for the purpose of reaching that goal sooner.

We have focused on the basics: food, water, heat, shelter, clothing. The majority of the money we've spent over the course of the past year (has it been a year already? shheesh) will not have been wasted regardless of how Y2K turns out.

Yes, it's true that we will have spent some money on things that were not needed, should there be no disruptions. But that would have been the case anyway - the home theatre system we had been drooling over a year ago now seems a terribly frivolous waste of hard-earned money.

We will continue to prepare for the remainder of this year. But we are prepared for a range of possibilities including no disruptions at all. As we have worked towards this goal over the past year, two questions guided us:

"What will be the result of our actions if nothing at all happens?"

and,

"What will be the result of our actions if it turns out worse that what we have planned for?"

There is no perfect solution. To prepare to the extent that we have meant making sacrifices in other areas. But I know what the last year has been like for us. I just don't think serious (multiple month) preparations can be made with anything less than a full year to do it. Yes, you have to spend some money to do it and doing so is much 'easier' if you have a full year to stretch it over. But much more significant is time required to think things through and gain new knowledge. The learning curve for those of us who have never considered such disruptions a real possibility before is tremendous.

If it were only a matter of just buying a few things, it would be easy but that is simply not the case. But no matter how Y2K unfolds, I think the time that we spent aquiring new (or is it 'old') knowledge and skills was well spent. It requires a change in the basic way you think and it is this change that is perhaps the hardest obstacle to overcome. I suspect that change in thinking will follow us the rest of our lives. I see it as a positive change.

Yes, I would be most happy if nothing at all happened. I don't think that is the most likely outcome given the incredibly arrogant response of those who should know better, but Mrs. Rimmer and I will certainly be prepared for that contingency as well.

BTW, we have not sold our home. We simply don't think the risk of being forced to leave it is huge. But we are making contingency plans just in case we are wrong about that...

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), May 27, 1999.

Interesting responses so far. Thank you. Debt reduction and flexibility seem to be key. We shall see how it all unfolds.

As for speaking to people who lived through the depression, well, my father graduated from high school in 1934. He was lucky enough to get into college, but during his first semester, he had to return home to manage the family farm because his fathered died. All this at the ripe age of 17, in the height of the depression.

What I learned from him is that you work hard, worry alot, and learn on the job, do with what you have, spend as little as possible. Sounds like good advice (except maybe for the worrying part). Take care.

-- Don't Know Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 27, 1999.

Don't Know Joe,

Your locality could have electricity and water from the very first day of 2000, and yet there could still be gasoline or food shortages that last for months. Y2K is about a lot more than just electricity being out for x number of days. It's also about supply chains and the domino effect.

Americans farmers are said to be hurting now because Asia isn't buying agricultural products as much as it did two years ago. It doesn't hurt anyone to buy a little extra at the supermarket each week and set it aside for next year.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), May 27, 1999.

The trick is to prep for a range of disasters.

I'm going into Y2K debt free with the exeption of the house, and I have enough cash and gold to pay the mortgage+taxes for two years if necessary (and that's with gold at current levels). I have food for 18 months, water for 90 days + rainwater catchment, solar power for the necessities, so I can run that house completely off the grid for at least a year no problem.

We have a hidey hole that I just finished stocking with air filtration systems power & light, food and water for two weeks in case of nuclear fallout. It's become a concern to me recently, and I have my weather radio monitoring for alerts on my nightstand these days.

For the recovery period, I have my computer geek skills if that job is still around, and I have the shop and HAND TOOLS necessary to be the local cabinetmaker / furniture maker / toy maker. If things go Infomagic, I have some nice bartering capability, including solar distilled water and colloidal silver.

See how it works? Backups within backups within backups. Takes many years to assemble the skills / tools, even if money is no object. Those who are just starting to prepare won't be able to do this. Just focus on water, food, sanitiation and defense capability. There will be opportunities to work for others like me when the recovery period gets underway. The trick is to be there and still standing.

"It's not paranoia when your fears are based on facts." -Tom Sullivan-

-- Tom Sullivan (thrivalist@hidey.hole), May 27, 1999.

Tom, if you don't mind my asking, what facts do you have to bolster your fears of a possible nuclear fallout? Thank you.

-- Don't Know Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 27, 1999.

I doubt it's a very wise idea to burn ALL bridges to your past life and permanently hole yourself up in a bunker. (But if you DO choose to do this it's your perogative and don't deserve to be demonized by your government and press.)

After y2k, for many of us, life will go on. Will it be the same old life? Who knows? Regardless of outcome, I tend to think that the best choices are the ones that open up the most doors and possibility for future choices. In short, you are wise to consider the possibility that y2k's effects will be milder than the End of the World or scenes from "the Postman."

In short, if you have the means to prepare for both positive and neagative y2k's, DO SO! If you can't, prepare for the worst, GN-ish outcomes as best you can. As everybody is saying here, if y2k doesn't take down the System, something else just might. You can take your pick among the following OTHER looming dangers on the horizon (bioweapon attack on US w/ smallpox or anthrax; nuclear attack; stock market crash-->liquidity crash-->bank failure-->Great Depression II; asteroid impact; World War III; ecological catastrophe; global warming-induced rise in sea level; the world runs out of drillable oil; extraterrestrial alien invasion, continuted Elvis sightings, etc. etc.)

-- coprolith II (coprolith@rocketship.com), May 27, 1999.

Coprolith II,

Is that what everyone else is saying here? That if Y2k doesn't bring down the system, something else will. Does everyone who views these threads and sees Y2k as a major threat think that way?

I'm curious, because I'm...

-- Don't Know Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 28, 1999.

Kevin:

Traditional non-edible cash crops like cotton may be produced at smaller yields to facilitate a greater margin of grains and produce, should there be strong concerns in farming/distribution. Look for numbers later in early summer of anticipated crop yields as a bellweather of concerns in this area.

-- Don't Know Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 28, 1999.

DKJ SAYS:

"Coprolith II,

Is that what everyone else is saying here? That if Y2k doesn't bring down the system, something else will. Does everyone who views these threads and sees Y2k as a major threat think that way?

I'm curious, because I'm...

-- Don't Know Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 28, 1999.

I don't know either. But please keep in mind, sir, that my operative word is "might" bring down the system, not "will." I, unlike lots of us here, still have hope that y2k will "only" be a 1-2 year long recession followed by steep growth and a long boom. I have hope that the internet will help create global peace and understanding, that revolutions in energy generation will allow cheap and non-polluting sources of energy to be tapped to the detriment of our friends in OPEC, that science will create a whole new wave of rationally-designed drugs to imrove both the quality and length of human life, that new advances in space propulsion (ie., lightcraft and Rotons) will make access to the vast, quadrillion-dollar mineral riches of the asteroid belt within reach of everyday people, that people will finally elect rulers who will respect the Constitution, that trade barriers around the world will be broken just as human rights improves, that sources of friction in the economy will dissipate and the FEd will keep interest rates at unprecedented low levels, etc.

As of now I still hope for much of this but I'm doubtful because of the truly dangerous world we live in now.

-- coprolith II (coprolith@rocketship.com), May 28, 1999.

I think that when it comes down to it, you have to do what feels right to you. Go with your gut feeling. If you've been wanting to make changes in your life, this may be the time to do it. If you think all hell will break loose, then by all means prepare for the worst. Or do less if that's your belief. I haven't done anything that I wouldn't do otherwise for the most part. I've focused on paying off debt- got the mortage paid off early- didn't want to have to worry about it next year. We're not accumulating large amounts of stuff we wouldn't use anyway- don't have the money to do that. But what we are doing is being thoughtfull, I hope, about where we are vulnerable and what we would want to have that might not be available.

-- anita (hillsidefarm@drbs.com), May 28, 1999.