"We need to be reminded that the responsibility to care for ourselves and each other truly and rightly rests with us."

- Paloma O' Riley, Director of Research for the Cassandra Project, Testimony to the United States Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, May 25, 1999.

Introduction

Read this post if you are concerned that that the Year 2000 Technology Problem may impact your safety and the safety of those you love.  It will take the average reader about 15 minutes to read.  If you are a regular, you've probably already read this post in another form or a previous post. This post offers suggestions on how you might approach your preparations for the potential wide-spread and local problems that may result from the failure of computers and computer chips.  Whatever you imagine the extent of Y2K failures to be (3 days to much longer disruptions in banking, employment, grocery shopping, health care, power, public safety, water, sanitation, etc.), you will want to prepare intelligently for potential Y2K problems.  The time remaing to prepare and your current resources (money, time, and lack of skills) may not allow for bad decisions and poor planning.

First Things

In a past response to my original thread on preparations, Arnie Rimmer identified the basic issues of Y2K preparation. They are as follows:

Location
Water
Food
Shelter
Heat
Sanitation

Focus on these first things as you plan out what you need and how you are going to get it. Otherwise, you might spend hard-earned cash or savings that (1) could have been better spent on other preparations or (2) saved for the potential hard economic times ahead.  Be frugal.  Your resources may be such that mistakes can not be afforded in the problem-solving process. Ask a lot of questions. Also, pay your bills. You want to stay out of trouble as you make preparations.

The new GI (one who "gets it"; one who prepares in the face of Y2K threats) needs general and local expertise in order not to waste time and money. Ask questions. Get an idea of how you are going to address these basic issues. Where will you be as Y2K problems unfold and how does your location determine what you will need and how you will store it? How much water is needed? How much food? How will you keep warm? What if your toilet didn't work? How will you cook?

Think it through

Will you be taking in family, relatives, and neighbors? Knowing how many people you will take care of and how long you plan to depend on your preparations will help you determine how much water and food you need to store. The Red Cross and F.E.M.A. recommends about one gallon of water and 2000 calories per day per person. Does anyone have allergies to any foods that you might be storing? Get this information, write it down, make decisions based on these facts.

You will need to consider the nutritional value of the food you store, how long this nutrition can be stored, and how to store it properly. Are you getting food that you already eat or food that is going to be difficult to eat and digest?  When storing water, what precautions are you taking against algae and bacteria? Map these things out on paper. Make mind maps of basic needs and the questions and issues associated with each answer that fits. Do this before you go shopping.

Stick to the plan

Narrowing one's focus to first things is not just good advice. It is great advice for the new GI who has a tight budget!  Staying focused, however, may be difficult in practice.  For example, you drive by the camping store (that you've driven by a thousand times)and you're curious enough to turn around and check the place out (since you know from your copy of the F.E.M.A. disaster preparedness check list that you should consider getting some camping gear).

You pull in, go inside, and start looking around at the four person- 4 season tents, sleeping bags, and other stuff. You see a fantastic four person tent that is on sale at 50% discount (say, it's now selling for $250) and, heck, why shouldn't you get it now! Don't get it now: you need to focus on first things. I would have if I hadn't considered Big Dog's advice about not worrying about the things I might not get. Stick to the plan-- however, nervous or thrilled you may be.

Those with the coolest preps will not necessarily win

Ok, so you are a new GI and you are focusing on first things, but you may be focusing too hard on getting the "best in breed" (preps that seem to be the best preps). Unless you have the financial position, going for the "best in breed" is not a reasonable way to proceed. Such a strategy will lead you to early defeat: some things may be way out of your price range. If you can't afford a $US 1,600 wood stove from Vermont Castings, you can still be prepared for the worst.

Do you need the armored Ford Explorer from Kroll O'Gara capable of shielding you from light machine gun fire or grenade blasts? Of course not!  Do you need the fancy cooking wood stove, 30 kw generators, the biggest polyethelene water and residential fuel tanks, dehydrated canned food that supposedly will store for 20 years if stored properly? Most likely, the answer is no.  If you have money for it, knock yourself out. I don't have money to burn. You may not either.

Cover all bases, equally

For example, you decide to bring in a back hoe, drop a 3000 gallon plastic cistern/tank into your backyard, fit the tank with a solar pump, and all for $US 2,000. But if you only have $2,000 for Y2K preps, this is a bad decision-- regardless of all the funny looks you'll get from your neighbors. In terms of first things, you need to focus on getting all bases covered equally. You may have water, but you may also have to relocate to a shelter because there's no heat or food after a week.

As Anita (another regular) and others have recommended, keep it simple.  Some suggest preparing for two weeks and then, enlarging these basic preparations to one month, and so forth according to your decision of how long and how bad the Y2K failures might be. Depending on when you get started on your preps, this strategy would allow you to weather unexpected and temporary problems if large Y2K failures begin occuring (on and off) before the New year.

Don't panic

Try to sort out your apprehensions and emotions before you begin planning your preparations. Those on a tight budget or who find themselves beginning preparations for serious and long-lasting failures (with less than six months to go) will find it hard to think things through and sort things out. Take time to live and enjoy life, family, and good friends. Make time to live and enjoy your life as you plan out and make preparations. You'll make better decisions about what you need and need to do.

When you first GI, there are a lot of emotions going on and this is a bad time to be making decisions. Your anxieties, fears, and regrets may get in the way of your thinking clearly and thinking things through. In fact, there is no need to get everything done, today. There is no general panic. Many of the things that you need are still available-- though there may be some delay in their delivery.  Don't obsess over Y2K.  If you are on welfare or not, there is time for you to prepare intelligently.

Do the research

Sometimes, rumors can panic new GIs who just feel like they need to be doing something now and fast! A few months ago, I was at a web site that said that gold coins of the 1/10th and 1/4 ounce American Eagle and Canadian Maple variety were not going to be available for much longer. Another site had a post saying the same. "Move it or lose it!" the author of that post exclaimed. It made me nervous.  I called around, but there wasn't any shortage of supply.

Whether you are concerned with rumors of shortages in the supply of things like 55 gallon plastic barrels for water or rumors about unexpected and/or greater Y2K failures, don't leave your list at home, rush out, and buy things in a panic. Try to find out if the rumors are good or not.  Search the web for expert opinions and the opinions of those people you may trust (online and offline). Ask the obvious question on this forum and elsewhere: "Should I be concerned?"

Use your time well

The fact is that there isn't time for most people to do the kind of research on the Y2K technology problem and Y2K preparations that many regulars did when they GIed.  This year, I took the month of February off from work to study the problem and begin my thinking on what I felt that I could afford and how much prepreparation I thought was necessary. Since February, I've logged several more hundred hours on the Internet and in books during the time I should've been sleeping.

Planning and making time for research remains important if you want to make educated, thoughtful, and smart decisions. Put reseach time into your schedule. But focus on accessing information that you need to know as opposed to lavishing time on debating outcomes or reading every post and article on every forum. Be frugal with how you spend your time online.  Y2K is not a moveable deadline.  Move forward in your preparation planning and actions; the countdown stops for no one.

Home base

On Ed Yourdon's discussion forum, most of us have made a real effort to evaluate information and opinions. This committment results in a open forum where new and old GIs (those who "get it") and DGIs (those that don't believe that Y2K failures require too much concern) communicate their opinions about...

Actual and potential Y2K problems and remediation
News stories, editorials, and features
Corporate and government reports
Senate testimony and hearings,
Actual and rumored availabilities and shortages of goods
Delivery delays of Y2K supplies and national resources
Experiences with Y2K suppliers and other vendors

Make this your home base. Look for information and advice here. If you still can't find it here. Then, scrub the web. Maybe, it took you time to get here. Don't lose more time by spending too much attention on all the other Y2K web sites out there.

If you're in a less than robust financial situation (welfare, low income, and/or pay check to pay check lifestyle), you really can't afford to make mistakes in your preparations. You may not even be able to afford to make mistakes of the trial and error variety. Those who have done prepping (or those prepping) can help newbies avoid expensive mistakes. The regulars will be more than happy to help you make intelligent decisions and work past whatever emotions you are feeling.

Speak up, meet people

Don't be shy. Don't not post-- if you have questions. If you think your question is silly or stupid, just ask your
question and let the regulars decide if it is really silly or not. If you like, email me or another regular.  There are people on both sides (GIs and DGIs) that will try to help you answer your questions about your preparations. Ask Old Git about gardening, for example. There may even be people in your region that can help you make better decisions about your regional needs.

If you can, go to one of the get togethers of Yourdonites. There have been get togethers in Texas, Northern Virginia, and elsewhere. Other get togethers are being planned including a second Northern Virginia get together. By going, you can decide for yourself if these people are crazy or not. Most likely, you'll be surprised by how we are not one color and ethnicity, mindset, and social and professional position. But all of us share a common concern about Y2K.

Read up, Read more

In the course of determining the level of preparation that you should make in the face of Y2K risks, there are several interesting posts in the archives on the various viewpoints and predictions. You will find my thread, "Mr. Decker and I beg to differ," in the archives of this forum. There, I write about some of the differences between GIs and DGIs.  Also you might look for posts by Dave Walden, Rob Michael, and others. There are many interesting posts that explore what may happen. 

In researching what things might go into your Y2K preparations, there are hundreds of good posts on a variety of subjects from wood burning stoves to bug out bags.  Search the general archive for topics of interest to you.  Make good use of Brian's Year 2000 Preparation Archive with which you can select a category and bring up a list of relevant threads on a number of subjects including...

Personal Considerations
Preparation
Family
Home
Food
Food Storage and Preserving
Growing Food
Cooking Food
Water
Sanitation
Health
Lighting
Heat
Fuel
Alternate Power
Money
Community Preparation
Rural Living
Urban Living
Bugging Out
Security and Guns
Ham Radio
Books
Leadership
Animals

Civility and Disagreements

There will be some messages that make you wonder if this is the right place for you. In the course of our public conversation on progress of the fixing of Y2K bugs and the potential danger of unfixed computer systems and chips, a fire fight may ensue. Some even try to disrupt the conversation for reasons that we may never fully understand. Most, however, contribute thoughtful, interesting, and useful information on how to prepare, what is really happening, and what may come.

Ed's Discussion Forum is the "edge" that you will need to get these preparations done in the time remaining. You may never have imagined that the wisdom of a stranger could help you get through hard times ahead. It may even save your life and the lives of those you love. Despite the occasional breakdown of civility in some messages (this is a trying time for us all!), you'll benefit greatly by sticking around. You may even come to appreciate the drama of our disagreements.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

 

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), May 27, 1999

Answers

Stan has asked me to include the Archive for folks to investigate the prep situation more

Good luck folks!

Year 2000 Preparation Archive

Choose the category you are interested in and press Enter. The link will appear in a new page. Close window to return.

Category	Year 2000 Preparation ArchivePersonal ConsiderationsPreparationFamilyHome FoodFood Storage and PreservingGrowing FoodFood - Cooking< option>ClotheswaterSanitationHealth LightingHeatFuelAlternate powerMoney and Y2KCommunity PreparationRural LivingUrban LivingBugging outSecurity and gunsHam Radio - CommunicationsBooksLeadershipAnimals

-- Brian (imager@home.com), May 27, 1999.

Stan, nice comprehensive write-up. do i/we have permission to modify for community handout for newbies not on the web? (thus, deleting or modifying references to yourdon's site, etc).

thanx!

-- Cowardly Lion (cl0001@hotmail.com), May 27, 1999.