For over two years I have written that finacial collapse is inevitable. The main two issues are fractional reserve banking and debt. Fractional reserve banking allows for fiat money, which is NO money at all. Just blue smoke and mirrors. Eight years ago, I saw the already unbelievable levels of debt skyrocketing. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to understand the consequences. Fiat debt can NOT be repaid. Ever. It only creates the principal and NOT the interest. Sooner or later it MUST collapse. No fiat money system EVER utilized has, yet, NOT failed to collapse, except the ones presently being used which are only waiting to collapse.

Mr Yen warns of deep flaws in global capitalism

By Peter Hartcher and Andrew Cornell One of the world's top finance officials has declared that the system of global capitalism could collapse if the US economy slumps.

The warning came from Japan's , Dr Eisuke Sakakibara, nicknamed Mr Yen for his influence on world markets. leading international economic and financial negotiator He said that while last year's international crisis had passed, deep structural flaws remained in the world capitalist system.

And he said that the US economy had some worrying elements, including "a bubble aspect", a lack of domestic savings, and a sharp run-up in international indebtedness.

These flaws in the system and the vulnerability of the US economy could come together to bring about a collapse in the system of global capitalism.

"The US, right now, is the centre of global capitalism, and if the centre collapses, the world system could collapse. And the situation in the US is not sustainable," he told The Australian Financial Review in an interview in Tokyo.

"Their savings rate is negative, and their net indebtedness has increased dramatically it has doubled in recent years. It has to stop somewhere."

=====

This is no more than I have been saying about our morally bankrupt capitalism. Coupled with specious fractional reserve banking and unredeemable mountains of debt a collapse is absolutely 100% unavoidable.

HE covers his as by saying 'could' happen. I have no compunction about saying it WILL happen.

Oh, but don't take Japan's "leading international economic and financial negotiator's" understanding to heart. Nah, nothing bad is going to happen. Y2K will not dramatically escalate the already excruciating high probability of such an economic collpase.

He is correct. The situation in the US is mosy asuredly NOT sustainable.

So sit on your fat asses and do nothing. Do nothing at all. Y2k will not be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Nahhhhhh. Everything is rosy. Trust your bank. Don't prepare. Your kids will be just fine.

It won't happen because the conclusion that 'it will' is unpalatable and unpleasant. Nahhh.

So long suckers.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/990524/world/world1.html

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), May 26, 1999

Answers

I don't know about "Collpase" but collapse is inevitable. The current world system is based on a financial sham and Y2K will most probably present the final bill. But whether Y2K or not (better minds than mine are occupied with propping the contraption up), the collapse is certain. Only the date is unknown. It is not archaic whatsoever to state that an immorally devised mechanism must collapse ultimately. That is the way the world works, despite the cynics, IN THE END.

It is by no means incidental that preventing market panic and bank collapse is the entire world elite strategy for Y2K or, at least, preventing it until it might suit their interest. After all, prevention of banking panic in 1999 has also meant ensuring that a minimum of people prepare for Y2K impact.

Whether one believes in conspiracies or mere incompetence, the result will most likely be similar.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 26, 1999.

Robert Rubin, Alan Greenspan and Friends have a bag full of tricks. They will keep the lady suspended as long as humanly possible. As in any illusion though she will eventually come back to earth and the reality of the most massive speculative stock market and debt bubble in the history of the world. It won't be pretty.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 26, 1999.

You're telling me that Monoply isn't a real game!

-- Richard Westerlind (Astral-Acres@webtv.net), May 26, 1999.

For the markets, currencies, et al, one possible theory is TPTB will (try to) keep it afloat until 1/1/00, and then let it collapse, using the ensuing chaos to hide all the "dead bodies" created over the last few decades. Then TPTB can attempt to crank it up all over again.

-- Nathan (nospam@all.com), May 26, 1999.

Yes, Paul, but I understand that Dr. Eisuke Sakakibara raises pigs in his spare time and has a brother that claims he is not stable. Furthermore, I heard this "Mr. Yen" practices revisionist Presbyterianism and spooked the world years ago by claiming that AIDS would become an epidemic. I also think the good Doctor is trying to scare people so they will buy his book...

LOL

The more writing that appears on the wall, the faster and more furious the pollyannas try to paint over it.

-- a (a@a.a), May 26, 1999.

As I noted in an earlier thread, while there have been cosmetic stock market rallies in various countries during the past six months, the underlying economic problems remain. The Japanese banking system remains in severe trouble.

Sakakibara has the global situation pegged accurately. The world financial system already came to the brink of a liquidity crisis last year, a fact that most Americans still don't realize. Camdessus and Fischer of the IMF certainly realized it, however (whatever you might think of the IMF's specific policies!).

Y2K questions and debates aside, I don't know whether all this necessarily translates into a global economic "collapse" in the near future, but it does suggest, at the very least, some major trouble ahead. Not only does the U.S. sit atop one of the biggest stock market bubbles in its history (by any traditional valuation model), but also the world's financial system sits atop $55 trillion in derivatives. Some of those derivative chains can turn very ugly, very fast--as LTCM discovered last fall. You will note that it was a manager of a hedge fund that moved quickest to criticize Mayo's "SELL" recommendation for shares of Citigroup, J. P. Morgan, and Bank One. Those fellows understand what is at stake.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), May 26, 1999.

Y2K is not the issue. Milne, BD, et al simply think the world is a rocket sled to Hell... Y2K is just a signpost on the trip down. The more I read of the pessimists on this forum, the more convinced I am of their unbridled hatred of modern America. Bad economics, bad politics, bad government, bad business, bad technology, bad ideas, bad culture, bad, bad, bad....

Why don't you end the suspense and tell us your real vision for 21st century America. Start with your economic system... after you dissolve the Fed, impose a 100% reserve requirement and reestablish the gold standard, what next? C'mon... I know you have given this some thought... in your after-hours chats.

By the way, good to see you, Don. I agree that there are serious economic imbalances AND that those chickens will come home to roost. The Fed bias suggests they will try to take air out of the market slowly, but personally, I'd think short-term T's for ride down.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 26, 1999.

Don --- IMO, even a relatively slight (I admit that is very vague) disconnect between financial systems due to Y2K breakdowns, added to other Y2K impacts, could very quickly send everyone to the exits in a mad dash of uncertainty and cause the derivative chains to unwind far faster than can be controlled.

All these concepts are more-or-less relative. My view of "collapse" is probably different than Milne's or yours. Indeed, I find little to question in your post and much I agree with.

What continues to be so striking about Y2K is that it is a "wicked problem", that is, one that reappears with seeming unpredictability at all the intersections of technology, infrastructure and culture. Any one, taken alone, appears manageable.

Put them together ..... and it is difficult to see how anything other than a massive loss of confidence, however "temporary", will accrue in world markets. Once confidence is lost, the system will devolve rapidly.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 26, 1999.

Decker said [I reply, Milne can speak for himself, I speak for me],

"Y2K is not the issue.

[Dead wrong. "It's Y2K, stupid."]

Milne, BD, et al simply think the world is a rocket sled to Hell... Y2K is just a signpost on the trip down. The more I read of the pessimists on this forum, the more convinced I am of their unbridled hatred of modern America. Bad economics, bad politics, bad government, bad business, bad technology, bad ideas, bad culture, bad, bad, bad....

[I have no hatred of modern America, not even a little bit. Yes, as a Christian, I don't feel "at home" in modern American culture, but I wouldn't in Roman culture either. Repeating the word "bad" is a good way to smear, but means nothing in this context. I do believe our culture is at a low point, but this is hardly a matter of hatred. And no matter how many times you use the word "pessimist" about me, it doesn't wash. And the regulars here, heck most of the lurkers, know that by now.]

Why don't you end the suspense and tell us your real vision for 21st century America. Start with your economic system... after you dissolve the Fed, impose a 100% reserve requirement and reestablish the gold standard, what next? C'mon... I know you have given this some thought... in your after-hours chats."

[Gee, I like your ideas for our economy next century. Thanks! That will do quite well enough for starters. While your implication is that these are crackpot concepts, I happen to disagree. We have destroyed the soundness of our money in the 20th century and it needs to be restored.

I'm not sure of the motivation behind your post? If the financial system does collapse, I don't think it will be my fault? Nor do I welcome such a collapse (that is, I would much prefer we solved our financial woes worldwide honorably), or necessarily expect it will give birth to a "classic" system.

But all my wishing won't make the current situation disappear. It is people like you by the millions (only with more power than yourself) who scoffed at Y2K for years and punted on it as trivial in 1997 and 1998. Are still punting on it.

If you're unhappy with the situation, look in the mirror.]

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 26, 1999.

Bad Decker bad Decker bad Decker

-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), May 26, 1999.

BigDog, I'm sure you've probably explained this before, but just what is immoral about our current system?

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), May 26, 1999.

Poor Decker. When confronted with more FACTS of an impending cataclysm, by people who know more than he ever will on the subject, he accuses the messengers of being malcontents. Maybe Mr. Yen hasn't been serviced by Mrs. Yen lately, is that it Decker?

-- a (a@a.a), May 26, 1999.

Decker & anyone interested . Bad means 'Rotten' . Decker , their seems to be a lot of " Rot " on your mind ( or is it in it ?? ) Eagle

-- Hal Walker (e999eagle@freewwweb.com), May 26, 1999.

ah gentlemen, but decker is the very quintessential man of the 1990's - he functions from the perspective that there are no absolutes, in fact his entire existance (and all of his arguments) are based on that concept. Thus when he is confronted with the evidence supporting the view that there are absolutes, including absolute limits, he *must* find a way to ignore that evidence - thus his attack on B.D. and Paul Milne....

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 26, 1999.

[BigDog, I'm sure you've probably explained this before, but just what is immoral about our current system?

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), May 26, 1999.]

It's called "Usury" you dumb ass!

-- (cujo@baddog.com), May 26, 1999.

Now let's see. I could at least FOUR separate posters attacking Decker. And *Decker* is criticized for attacking! Can't anyone here count?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 26, 1999.

Here's a link to an excellent article that discusses current debt market spread and faltering liquidity:

Increasing Signs of Systemic Stress

by David Tice

=============================================

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 26, 1999.

Shouldn't this thread be called "Financial Collapse Inevitable - I Hope"?

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), May 26, 1999.

LOL

Paul Milne, your so sure aren't you? I'll tell you what is unpalatable and unpleasant...the thought of the likes of you, who will probably survive if the world goes Mad Max. Will you be the next Adam? Are you taking your Viagra regularly?

BWAAAAAAHAHA

What a freak of nature!

-- The Antimilne (lol@milnes.antics), May 26, 1999.

Decker, if you want a vision of what America should look like, read the U.S. Constitution and Federal Law with everything from the Sherman Act removed, excepting only the extension of suffrage to women, the end of slavery, and the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Read Ayn Rand, pre-1960 Robert Heinlein, and Robert Ringer, to name only a few.

Paul, you are brilliant, and I have never read anything you have written that I disagree with, but I wish one thing about your posts: please become a bit more dignified in your expression, as some aspects of them interfere a bit with the message. This is from a fellow hard-core GI and techno, please remember.

For anyone who wants to read another (also TEOTWAWKI in its conclusions) short summary of the effects of Y2K, please look at the article entitled "An Introduction" on my website.

site: www.y2ksafeminnesota.com OR http://y2ksafeminnesota.hypermart.net

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), May 26, 1999.

Yes Paul, I agree with minnesota. "Goodbye, ignorami" has a nicer ring than "So long suckers"

LOL

-- a (a@a.a), May 26, 1999.

Flint: I'm not sure whether you counted me as attacking Decker or not? I certainly experienced his post as an "attack", though I don't really tote those things up one way or the other, since I've been known to bark and bite too.

Interesting quote in the Tice article from Paul Volcker:

"We will conclude with a quote made this week by legendary Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volker. "The fate of the world economy is now totally dependent on the growth of the U.S. economy, which is dependent on the stock market, whose growth is dependent on about 50 stocks, half of which have never reported any earnings."

Now, if I had said this on the forum, I believe it would probably have been derided or written off as typical doomer talk. Read it again. Look at the words "fate", "totally dependent", "dependent on the stock market" (rather than the 'real economy'), "never reported any earnings".

Mix in Y2K anticipation as the year proceeds, stir in authentic Y2K impact realities and future uncertainties AS Y2K UNFOLDS and .... what?

We'll all find out.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 26, 1999.

Big Dog:

No, I didn't see what you wrote as an attack at all. I counted Johnny, Ray, 'a', and Arlin.

Also, I didn't count what Decker wrote about you as an attack either. You may disagree with his assessment of your position, but he makes a genuine attempt to support what he says. The attackers are just personal, ignoring the issues to attack the person.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 26, 1999.

In the post by Ray, above, be sure to read the last paragraph twice.

-- dave (wootendave@hotmail.com), May 26, 1999.

Flint,

Here's my point, again, in less "attacking" language. In my opinion, some of the people who believe Y2K will destroy our society ALSO detest modern America. It seems glaringly obvious to me that Big Dog, Arlin, etc. have bones to pick with our current economic and social systems (no pun intended.)

As you can see, Big Dog has not elaborated on his economic theories or answered Hoff's question about the "immorality" of the free market. If he stepped to the plate, I think we'd see much more than opinions about Y2K... and more about his "constitutionalist" views. I am of an increasing mind that they (and others) have agendas outside the scope of Y2K.

Every other post Big Dog write about me, he accuses me of being disingenuous. This is the civilized way to a call a man a liar. [On the positive side, he seems to have dropped the "coward" label.] Arlin seems to have settled on the "stupid" theme.

Personally, I do not think Big Dog, Arlin, etc. are liars or idiots. In fact, they seem bright fellows, and I'd like to hear more about Big Dog's economic vision and the Arlin's thought on good government. Oh, and I'd like to hear about Arlin's paramilitary group... the one where he is a PsyOps officer. So Flint, do you suppose I get answers or just more round of "It's Y2K, Stupid?"

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 26, 1999.

Mr. Decker

Anger and insults have not been part of your contributions. When you refer to (et al..pessimists...unbridled hatred of America) you do me an injustice. I am an optomist with a negative outlook on the repercussions of y2k. By including me and others you do me a diservice. To accuse those who have views opposing yours as being filled with an "unbridled hatred of America" is deja vu. I was thinking of a Senator who said similar things but this was in the early fifties.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), May 26, 1999.

Decker -- I'm too busy at the moment but will get to the "immoral" question. It's a good one and will require a separate thread, probably.

Otherwise, it really is just Y2K, stupid. Sorry. As for my agenda, don't have one that I know of, at least politically, though I see nothing wrong with a recovery of constitutional thought and a lot good about it.

And Mike is right. Your language here is as bad or worse than your opponents. Which isn't the end of the world, just don't be so self-righteous. Clearly, this thread made you mad and "inspired" you to launch the other one on religion. You're the one with the "free market" religion, buddy.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 26, 1999.

Mr. Milne... As usual, I pray to God that you're wrong and blustering with hyperbole. However, if you're right, I've something to tell you as a fellow West-Central Virginian: please don't shoot me if I wander too close to your farm while I forage for grass seeds, acorns, and small game. I have to admit, though. There is a perverse part of me that is going to welcome TEOTWAWKI in whatever form it will be manifest. There are some things about post-modern existence in the decadent West that I will be more than happy to see die out. Keep scaring us, you curmudgeon. You have to admit, you rank at "11" on the Y2k Richter Scale. I can't help but admire someone who who has the guts to state their opinion, no matter how bizarre it sounds.

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), May 26, 1999.

Deck said:

Every other post Big Dog write about me, he accuses me of being disingenuous. This is the civilized way to a call a man a liar. [On the positive side, he seems to have dropped the "coward" label.] Arlin seems to have settled on the "stupid" theme.

Just a reminder, I'm still in the "Pompous Ass" camp :)

-- a (a@a.a), May 26, 1999.

Mike,

I apologize. There are thoughtful pessimists on this forum who's views I respect. Dave Walden and Stan Faryna will serve as good examples.

It was not my intent to slur you personally. Nor do I impugn those who disagree with me. I do think there is more than Y2K bubbling in the stew pot for Mssrs. Big Dog and Adams. And I think Milne's opinion of America and "morally bankrupt capitalism" is rather clear.

[To help Big Dog, here, capitalism is an amoral system. There are markets for Bibles and crack cocaine. The marketplace does not differentiate between moral "goods" and "bads." The laws of supply and demand work equally with the noble and the base. In fact, Gary Becker has an interesting microeconomic piece on how freedom of religion actually generates higher church attendance.]

Honestly, I have not read enough of your writing to reach any conclusions about how you feel about America or modern culture. Again, I apologize if you felt insulted.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 27, 1999.

"I do think there is more than Y2K bubbling in the stew pot for Mssrs. Big Dog and Adams."

Oh, boy. No smearing or innuendo there. Nooooooo. Care to say what you "think" it is, Decker? Besides that we haven't kissed up to you on the forum?

Do you know how silly you are getting?

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 27, 1999.

What about me Deck! When I read that you said I wanted to see the end of civilization I just about soaked my crying towel.

Now say you're sorry you big bastard.

Regards,

-- Mr. a (a@a.a), May 27, 1999.

Flint -

my criticisms of decker are consistent in that I only criticize after he's done his best to derail the topic of a thread and try to redirect the entire discussion toward the motives of posters, rather than toward the nature of the material posted. Since he does this sort of thing consistently, and since he has obviously lied at times in the past, I have only contempt for his motives... I simply choose, from time to time, to restate just how contemptuous I find his behavior, lest he somehow fantasize that no-one has noticed his hypocrisy; or worse - lest some innocent be deceived into thinking him an honorable man.

sorry if that bothers you,

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 27, 1999.

Something, perhaps, of what Big Dog and others are (suspect) responding to, may be found in William Kotke's book, The Final Empire,(available through Amazon.com). Representative extracts follow---

All of us have to struggle to throw off the mind conditioning that we have received in civilization. Our reality molding would have us believe that there are environmental problems such as toxic chemicals, radiation and acid rain. The fact is that our life crisis began with empire/civilization. The environmental crisis began thousands of years ago, when the Han Chinese began to destroy the vast forests of China and when the Indo-Europeans began to overgraze the vegetation and exhaust the soils of central Asia. For two to three million years humans lived on the planet in a stable condition then suddenly with the cultural inversion to civilization, the earth began to die.

If the problem were simply one of ecology, it would not be so difficult to address, even solve. But the problem is deeper than that. It is in the dark soul of Empire. It is in the cultural dynamics, imbedded in the language, entangled in the psychology of the modern social being. It results from the very behavioral modification of multi-raced aborigines to fit into homogenized human ghettos of asphalt, rebar, and concrete. It is in the unstoppable momentum of a material system wound up on profit at the expense of all. It is Empire.

The materialistic values of civilization teach us that the accumulation of wealth is progress. The material wealth of the civilization is derived from the death of the earth, the soils, the forests, the fish stocks, the 'free resources' of flora and fauna. The ultimate end of this is for all human species to live in giant parasitical cities of cement and metal while surrounded by deserts of exhausted soils. The simple polar opposites are: the richness and wealth of the natural life of earth versus the material wealth of people living out their lives in artificial environments.

This book is not just a tract. It's well documented and cogently argued. Kotke even suggests some remedial measures.

(I recommend reading the book before starting to throw pillows around the room.)

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), May 27, 1999.

Arlin,

Your contempt, Arlin, is honor worth having.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 27, 1999.

Score, Decker.

-- Lurkin' (LurkI@lurk.on), May 27, 1999.

Big Dog,

You gave up coward? Well, I'll claim that one for my own then, but he already knows that, maybe I'll add craven to it.

-- CT (ct@no.yr), May 27, 1999.

Minnesota,

That was the first post of yours, I really enjoyed, now if you would please stop trying to sell yourself............

-- R. Wright (blaklodg@hotmail.com), May 27, 1999.

Hoffmeister,

You asked BigDog, "I'm sure you've probably explained this before, but just what is immoral about our current system?"

I'll throw my two bits in and keep it simple because thats the way I am. I could tab these to the Bible but...

1) You make some money and get to keep some of it.

2) You are taxed on property you own.

3) You are taxed on almost every item you purchase.

4) You are taxed to fish.

5) You are taxed to hunt.

6) You are taxed to phone.

7) You are taxed to heat.

8) You are taxed to cook.

9) You are taxed to cool.

10) You are taxed to drive.

11) You are taxed to fly.

12) You are taxed to smoke.

13) You are taxed to work.

14) You are taxed to park.

15) You are taxed to die.

16) You are forced to purchase insurance.

17) You are forced to comply or die...Waco, Ruby Ridge, etc.

This is just a quick list of the "immorality" of the system. Many Christians, if surveyed and asked, "What is the big bad thing in the earth?" Most would say it has something to do with "sex". I say it is involved in the above list of TAXES etc. EVIL to the max.

-- Mark Hillyard (foster@inreach.com), May 27, 1999.

If we make it through Y2K (A big "if"), there may be hope. Stayed up last night finishing "The Sovereign Individual". The corrupt and bloated nation-states (e.g., U.S., Canada, England, Germany, France, Italy) will COLLAPSE. (with or without the help of Y2K). But, if the power and phones stay up, we will rapdily be able to get free of many taxes, by shopping for protection, just as we shop for beer.

Taxation nowadays has two components. One is for protection. The other is extortion, plain and simple. The extortion portion is major compared to the protection portion.

And maybe the NWO isn't a sure thing. I actually feel semi-optimistic (provided we get throught Y2K -- and by that I mean -- I don't care about the maintenance of the U.S. or state governments -- just as long as we have a least sporadic power and phone service.)

"The Sovereign Individual" by James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg. Check it out by searching on Amazon (http://www.amazon.com)

-- A (A@AisA.com), May 27, 1999.