I thought the economic crisis was over. How can this be so with Brazil Bovespa dropping 10% this week so far and Argentina on the verge of a currency devaluation. I'm looking forward to hearing what other forum members think about this.

-- cw (cwiowa@uiowa.edu), May 25, 1999

Answers

Hi cw,

It's all about hype and lies. You might want to ask why the Brazilian Bovespa Index had been rising at all these last three months. Who is stupid enough to purchase shares from a country with toilet paper quality money? Clinton, Greenspan, Rubin, Summers, etc. have been propping up all of the sick and lame economies on Earth in order to try to convince the sheeple that all is well and the bull market will continue forever. Rising interest rates, the stupid war in Yugoslavia, and Y2K are about to end all of that.

-- Incredulous (ytt000@aol.com), May 25, 1999.

forgive me, but the "economic crisis " has yet to begin; e.g. - once the DJIA hits 5000 or so, we might assume we're probably in the beginning stages...

sorry

Perry

-- Perry Arnett (pjarnett@pdqnet.net), May 25, 1999.

The Bovespa, at one point was up 72% for the year. 10% is not much. Yet.

Perry is about where I am. 5000 on the Dow. Tick-Tick-Tick

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), May 26, 1999.

"once the DJIA hits 5000 or so, we might assume we're probably in the beginning stages... "

Agreed. I see this ordering 1) energy & utilities go down in many countries (not in the USA of course, BJ Clinton feels our pain, and won't let that happen), 2) economic meltdown comes, the 3) war starts.

This pre-supposes the "use 'em or lose 'em" (nukes) predictions are wrong.

Wasn't the Dow about at about 2,000 in 1992?

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), May 26, 1999.

Although the global economic situation has stabilized somewhat, it has not yet started to improve. Market commentators have been emphasizing the improvement in Korea and a few other smaller economies. However, Japan and China, the two dominant economies of east Asia continue to deteriorate in spite of massive governemnt spending. All of South America is now in recession. The economies of Germany, UK, and Italy have weakened significantly over the last year, and are now near recession.

The stock market "experts" keep saying that they expect a significant recovery late this year. Except for Ed Yardeni, they are completely ignoring the effects of y2k on the global economy.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmsil.com), May 26, 1999.

I second Perry's thoughts. There is great potential for extensive, future "profit taking".

-- A. Hambley (a.hambley@usa.net), May 26, 1999.

Remember that recent Time Magazine cover story about the global economy? They front cover showed a picture of 3 guys, Greenspan, Rubin, and some other (Summers?). These were the 3 who reputedly rescued the world from a global economic crisis. This implies that the global economy is intrinsically unstable and can collapse at any moment. The governments of the world can come up with accounting tricks for only so long before we come to "The Great Reckoning."

-- Joe O (ozarkjoe@yahoo.com), May 26, 1999.

CW,

Nope. There's still one more ice cube to go. Hint: you're standing on it.

-- Lee (lplapin@hotmail.com), May 26, 1999.

The underlying problems are still there, despite some cosmetic stock market rallies in the past six months. In particular, the Japanese banking system is still in severe trouble.

One point to keep in mind in the months ahead: the world's financial systems are currently perched atop $55 trillion in derivatives. No, that is not a typo.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), May 26, 1999.