Somewhere during the past three months, it became non-Y2K PC to use the word TEOTWAWKI. This seems odd to me, since I see nothing to alter its realistic possibility during that time frame. Some of this probably centers around confusion surrounding the term itself, though I'm not sure why (the end of the world as we KNOW it, not the end of the world, duh).

Yourdon's prediction of depression is TEOTWAWKI in my book. Certainly, for my father and mother, the 30s depression was the end of their world for over a decade. How much more true will this be for our country? And how much more true still for countries far less prepared to weather Y2K?

When the international perils are factored in, TEOTWAWKI is pre-eminently a realistic possibility for the year 2000. Indeed, we may be entering a period of time when TEOTWAWKI from cyber-terrorism is a persistent possibility. Whether it is a probability is unknowable.

My reasons for stating this are as follows (I am not going to rehash polly arguments; I'm sure we'll get more than enough of them as a rejoinder).

1. The predicted Y2K trajectory for 1999 from 1997-98 is taking place almost to the letter with everything that counts (ie, remediation, compliance and testing). The passage of so-called critical dates is encouraging but trivial.

2. If anything, the rest of the world is farther behind than we expected it to be at this time.

3. Most GIs expected far more support for international preparation by this time, instead of near-universal denial. This will make Y2K societal reaction worse than originally projected.

4. Once again, the amazingly worse international situation as compared to 1997-98, makes TEOTWAWKI still more likely.

On the plus side, embedded systems *seem* to be less of a threat in the aggregate, although their specific impact on vital infrastructure cannot be known ahead of the fact (ie., refineries and the like). Likewise the grid.

The financial system (banking) is about where I expected it to be: claiming everything is OK but no way to be sure, either with respect to panic or corrupted databases.

Late 1999 and into 2000 is the first year since 1962 (Cuban Missile Crisis) where TEOTWAWKI has been a realistic possibility in my life. Consequently, while I continue to work normally and hedge my concerns by hoping for a bump (ie, haven't quit my job), I am blessed by already living more than five miles from a 7-11 and by 18 months of intense preparation. You may not be so lucky.

I consider myself responsible to prepare up to the limit possible AND A BIT BEYOND to fulfill my responsibilities to my wife and five children. My four-year old son will thank me (actually he already does because he loves some of our preps).

While I "enjoy" the give-and-take on this forum, quite a bit of it has an unreal quality, an AS-IF that is common when lots of techies gather together. Calculations. Pissing contests. Inability to see connections.

Y2K is incalculable for my family. I can't "quantify" it as "10 bags of rice" instead of "15", though I have distastefully made various calculations of time, money and material. As with most of us, 90% of our preparations are fully usable. We don't need to eat all our "beans" next year: they'll keep for 7 to 10 years. And so it goes.

Moreover, our gain in self-reliance (and we were already fairly self-reliant) has proven a treasure in itself.

Y2K is incalculable for my community. So we have purchased enough non-hybrid seed to feed about 500 people (obviously, we will share seed with nearby farmers) and my wife, a CNM, has been hoarding (or is it "planning"?) to help many women have their babies at home if the local rural hospital tanks.

It remains inconceivable to me that people on this forum, even some regulars, mock those who prepare and/or patronize them, rather than extol them as model citizens in a country with a negative saving rate where everyone considers themselves "entitled" to be rescued by others. (By "prepare", I don't mean the silly hurricane analogy, but the type of preparation I have outlined here. Praise THAT.)

Y2K is not a game. People will die from it directly. Whether 1,000 will die, 1,000,000 or 100,000,000 is unknown to me.

For example, my elderly parents, who foolishly moved to San Diego last month, may die if water fails. While their decisions are their responsibility, they remain my parents and I honor them in their foolishness.

Old Git may die if she can't get access to needed medicine.

And so it goes.

If our adversaries decide to take advantage of our national folly and the Y2K "fog of war" to attack this country, you and I may die.

Do you GI yet?

INVAR used to say, "don't tread on me." I can identify with that.

Frankly, I expect the usual mocking or condescension from the DGIs here ("I think it's fine if people have three days of food hoarded.") If I have, at times, become angry at various posters, I have no fundamental apology, though I recognize that others mis-take that anger as something personal. It is, precisely, not personal. Or, rather, it is beyond personal.

I don't know whether TEOTWAWKI, analyzed from the vantage point of 2001, had a 1999 probability of 2%, 10%, 30% or 80%. Any of those numbers are possible, given the incomplete state of the data and the perilous year we are passing through globally.

I do know I'm not ashamed of the word, just ashamed of a world, and a forum, too blind to see the obvious and respect those who are doing their best to be faithful CITIZENS. As Churchill said, "sometimes it isn't enough to do the right thing, you have to do what is necessary."

I do quite personally exhort anyone who has not yet prepared for Y2K to bend every effort and spare no reasonable expense for yourself and your family. You may have six months to do so. You may have one month to do so.

Do what is necessary.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 25, 1999

Answers

well said, Big Dog. i concur 100%.

-- Cowardly Lion (cl0001@hotmail.com), May 25, 1999.

TEOTWAWKI never went out of style with me. I suspect that most people do not realize what the As We Know It part of that phrase means. As We Know It means cheap clothes made in China, never ending sources for Propane and medications. 100 varieties of cola. I suspect many people cannot imagine such a world without these things because they have limited powers of imagination.

They can only picture two options. The Way Things Are Now or Armegeddon. Neither of these are worth preparing for.

TEOTWAWKI requires work, critical thinking and budgeting. Any other scenario requires sitting on your butt and waiting. Guess which one is the most popular?

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), May 25, 1999.

R said: "TEOTWAWKI requires work, critical thinking and budgeting."

That is exactly so. And, in a way unknown to most, it requires true optimism long-term or else one would be simply paralyzed and fail to prepare (most of you who have prepared know exactly what I mean).

TEOTWAWKI assumes a world on the other side, but one "bent" more or less unpredictably from this one (cf Rob Michaels' thread, TBOTWAWKI: link?).

This is why posting speculations about Y2K impacts, though they *can* be relevant to critical thinking, cannot substitute for preparation. We know all we need to know about Y2K, regrettably, to undergird the most serious preparation possible.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 25, 1999.

BigDog,

From your mouth to God's ears....

220 days remain.

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), May 25, 1999.

No problem with the term TEOTWAWKI, as Y2K as already changed our internal world and life permanently. Previous threads about that. And at this point who cares about politically correct? All that matters is realistically correct, logical, prudent, common-sense, wise. Take responsibility and PREPARE !! DUH !! Unravelling coming sooner than seems possible ...

xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), May 25, 1999.

Being three years older than dirt, from a generation when being self-sufficient wasn't considered to be anything other than "average" I truly commend you for your sane, sensiable approach to what indeed may well be the End Of The World, as we know it. The prospect of no electricity doesn't bother me. Nor does the thought that all of living will slow down and hopefully take a deep breath bother me. I wish you and your family all the best.

-- Richard Westerlind (Astral-Acres@webtv.net), May 25, 1999.

BD, I would agree that the factual basis of remediation has not been communicated. The conclusions have been communicated, but who relies on conclusions without knowledge of the underlying factual basis?

My reflex is to cite de Jager here, but he still advocates a month of supplies, so he is not the best example. I'll use Koskinen instead. Koskinen conjures images of the cartoon characters who, while speaking to a foreigner, repeat their phrases loudly thinking that volume will overcome the language barrier.

We need facts, not conclusions. The flaks can shout their conclusions louder and louder, but it will be of no avail to a thinking person. A thinking person is not listening to the language of manipulation. A thinking person is listening to the language of persuasion. A thinking person hears only the sounds of silence in 1999.

Alas, it is clear by now that there will be no facts. The facts, like the victim in The Cask of Amontillado, have been walled in, not to see the light of day. Only when the dust settles will we be able to determine the facts.

Commerce is a demanding taskmaster. In many ways our system of commerce is a wonderful wonderful state. But it has big flaws. Its inability to perform critical self-evaluation which is unrelated to an obvious short term profit motive is a flaw which is now at the forefront. The taskmaster is too demanding to allow this "nonproductive" behavior.

Well, BD, I could continue rambling for a while, but I'll cut it short for the night and simply say that I agree. The T word is still a possibility. The pundits have not refuted their earlier case. The last time I looked, the Grand Canyon was not yet filled with marbles.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 25, 1999.

Big Dog,

I would encourage you to post this view often. I agree, life will not be as we have known it, and the bottome line of this forum is to prepare, whatever our individual perception of what that means. For myself, this forum keeps me focused on what I need to do to prepare while disinformation reigns. Please feel inclined to repost this perspective from time to time...these are helpful thoughts.

-- Leslie (***@***.net), May 25, 1999.

Puddintame said, "A thinking person hears only the sounds of silence in 1999." Yes. That is why I am at least as alarmed now as I was this time last year, if not more. The silence is eerie.

Puddintame also said, "Commerce is a demanding taskmaster. In many ways our system of commerce is a wonderful wonderful state. But it has big flaws. Its inability to perform critical self-evaluation which is unrelated to an obvious short term profit motive is a flaw which is now at the forefront. The taskmaster is too demanding to allow this "nonproductive" behavior."

Quite so. I'm not terribly optimistic that a post-TEOTWAWKI world will be peaceful enough to learn the short-term/long-term lesson, but it is possible. Y2K was eminently fixable but it was too "trivial" to muster notice until too late to avoid the possibility (remember, I'm not prophesying TEOTWAWKI) of a worldwide train wreck.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 25, 1999.

Thanks, BD.

-- Jim the Window Washer (Rational@man.com), May 25, 1999.

You're right, BigDog, the end of the world as WE know it IS a possibility. You mentioned me and medicine. As it happens, I had scheduled a complete physical about ten days ago, "just in case." Everything is okay except a note from my doc on the Pap smear. I need to go back in 6 months. Want to bet I'm back in five???

Got the message? SCHEDULE A PHYSICAL, QUICK!

The other somewhat disturbing news is this: the crucial tablet I take is made by a Merck subsidiary--in France. I notice Eli Lilley has come out with a statement about how all their insulin is made in the US, etc., etc., no problem. Cool. But the world's largest insulin manufacturer is a Danish company, Novo Nordisk.

According to the American Diabetes Association, there are 8 million known diabetics in the US. Another 8 million are diabetic but don't know it yet. Fifty is around the right age for Type II diabetes, you boomers. Have your glucose level checked--just in case.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), May 25, 1999.

Thanks BigDog.

The first time I posted here seems quite a long time ago. I remember it vividly. The thread was the one, you know..."tell us about you"? I remember writing that if one person dies from Y2k it is obviously TEOTWAWKI for them and their families. Yet, to put it more personally, if someone you know dies as a direct result of Y2k then it is TEOTWA YOU KI. Actually, if you loose your job because of a Y2k related decision then that is TEOTWAWKI to me.

From that post until now I can honestly say I haven't seen a lot of information that would make me change my point of view regarding what may occur in the future. What has really changed for me is that I've come to the conclusion that, what ever occurs, I WILL get myself and my family through it. I'm always the optimist.

I cannot afford to make the deep kinds of preparations many here are doing. And, in some respects, I don't even think it would be prudent for me to do so living in L.A. I'm not sure I will even be here in this city to see the turn.

However, making the mental commitment to "make it" regardless of what occurs is incredibly important. I realized long ago that I don't own or possess anything I wouldn't give up in a heartbeat for the welfare and safety of my family. There was a moment of clarity for me when my whole life became crystal and all the truly important aspects became even more important. That moment happened before I was even aware of Y2k.

There are days now when I may suffer through incredible difficulty with work or what ever else but I am so very grateful and thankful that my family is here and safe with me. There are days now when I look up at the night sky and thank God for all the blessings in my life. There are more days like this for me now than there were before I made that first post here. There are more nights when I thank God and think, "if I die tonight, that will be absolutley fine." There are more opportunities now for tears to flow just because I caught a glimpse of my son's smile.

My priorities are different. My appreciation for life is elevated. My ability to comprehend joy, understand pain and roll with the punches have all been heightened. Is this the talk of a doomer bent on seeing the world destruct in a heap of twisted, unremediated code? I have know idea. If it is, I couldn't be happier.

I can say, without hesitation, that I will get myself and my family through what ever happens. We will be resilient. We will adapt and overcome.

I'm on a mission to make sure that my 3 year old son has a better life than I have had.

I'm on a mission to make sure that the mistakes of people we never knew will not hinder his opportunities in the future.

There is no pressure for me in striving for this. This mission gives me absolute joy. You can't appreciate joy until you've suffered through real pain.

Even with the pain of TEOTWAWKI we'll have a new world full of fresh opportunities. It may be different. It may be scary to consider that life will change. But, (unless something really stupid like nuclear war occurs) I think you're right BigDog, it wont be the end of the world.

Mike ==========================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), May 25, 1999.

Michael said, "However, making the mental commitment to "make it" regardless of what occurs is incredibly important. I realized long ago that I don't own or possess anything I wouldn't give up in a heartbeat for the welfare and safety of my family."

Hey, do me a favor and get out of L.A. by December 15 if at all possible?

I believe that we must be prepared, in a worst case, to leave all our physical preparations behind in a heartbeat should the situation demand it. Undoubtedly, our own resilience is far more important than, though no substitute for, concrete preparations.

Again, one of the ironies here is that those who prepare the most are, in a real sense, the LEAST "doomer-like". We expect to live and thrive, no matter what, no matter where.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 25, 1999.

BigDog,

What a fine gift you've given us tonight. My mind popped open when I read "So we have purchased enough non-hybrid seed to feed about 500 people (obviously, we will share seed with nearby farmers) ..."

Tomorrow I order more seeds. And I'll read your post one more time ... thanks.

-- Ron Rodgers (RonRodgers@Resilience2000.com), May 25, 1999.

What agony for a well-prepped bugger to have to precipitously leave his fortress! Gotta mentally plan for that too. Ouch, ouch, ouch, it all hurts.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), May 25, 1999.

Ron -- It cost us about $750, I think, something not everyone can do. My feeling is, if we throw some out later, I will still feel good. Also, by drying, bagging and freezing the seed carefully, we're pretty confident we can use a lot of it ourselves over the next four to six years or more. We may lose some germination quality, but that's cool.

However, in general, I think seed is a wonderful way to lay up something for helping others. I may or may not choose (or be able) to share various physical foodstuffs, but that $750 in NON-HYBRID seed could be an "investment" in my community that pays off 100-fold if TEOTWAWKI becomes a reality.

As another example of a "prep" that was costly but valuable, we got a great deal on a 40 x 20 greenhouse and also purchased back-up poly for it. My beloved one has been hoping for a greenhouse for fifteen years anyway and is having a wonderful time with it.

Plus, as often happens in life, this has put us in regular contact with other folks in the area that have commercial greenhouses, enhancing our skills and standing us in good stead for next year and beyond.

A little more self-reliance .....

-- BigDog (BigDog@Duffer.com), May 25, 1999.

Ashton & Leska --- Yeah, but you're still in the Cascades even if you have to hightail it somewhere. I've got to keep my rear away from the "iron triangle" of NYC, Philadelphia and Albany-Binghamton. Not a very romantic idea ....

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 25, 1999.

Hey Big Dog:

I am not scared. I always shaakkee like thisssss. Plain and simple to understand. RIGHT on. If I lose anything to Y2K it's EOTWAIKI.

Lon

-- Lon (Lon1937@aol.com), May 25, 1999.

Nice essay Big Dog,

Funny thing is that it is already TEOTWAWKI in our household. Making the preps. Spending more money than I wanted. Thinking about medicine without a handy doctor. Becoming prepared (if not at all wanting) to become self- reliant.

Even if I were convinced tomorrow that this was a fabulous hoax, my life and perspective have been changed forever.

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), May 25, 1999.

Thanks for another good post and what has turned into an interesting thread BigDog.

I have never lost my concern for TEOTWAWKI as a possibility. You wrote about how ironic it is that those preparing the most are the least doomer-like. I think it is also ironic that just the possibility of TEOTWAWKI, when considered seriously, leaves us with little alternative but to abandon forever the illusion of what we thought was always our nice little constant take-it-for-granted world. Over the last year or so, I have already undergone such a significant change that it has been, in this context, TEOTW as I knew it. And I think of this period of my life as just the coming attraction, to the main event, which may be TEOTWAWKI wholesale.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@com.net), May 25, 1999.

B.D.

Well said!

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 25, 1999.

Well, I have had a concern for some time, and I suppose this is the place for it, rather than a thread written for a newbie GI.

It is my humble opinion that the proper response to a meltdown scenario would be a new homesteading/agrarian lifestyle.

I believe that all GI's should be preparing to be productive in the new society.

By productive, I am thinking of growing and raising food, and engaging in crafts such as carpentry and knitting/sewing/clothing-making; even cooking on a fire.

By preparing, I mean learning (beginning to learn) these skills now.

Unfortunately (as I see it), the world of GI's doesn't seem to feel the way I do. Nearly all advertisements (other than those of the non-hybrid seed purveyors) and most comments I've seen envision the GI and his family holing up with non-perishable food. No productivity envisioned.

I see this to be a Rip Van Winkle approach. The advocate of the holing up scenario would prefer to sleep through the problem, and awake when it's over, ready to resume life as before. And if life cannot be resumed as is, that bridge will be crossed when the time comes.

As I see it, that attitude is essentially "fix on failure". Thus we have GI's apparently holding the same attitude as the Russians they condemn.

Well, this is a generalization, and you may feel that my analysis is not appropriate for most GI's. And as is so often said, everyone is responsible for himself,

Still, I wish I saw more going on in the GI community about learning skills of a pre-Industrial Revolution nature.

-- GA Russell (garussell@russellga.com), May 25, 1999.

Doug said, "Funny thing is that it is already TEOTWAWKI in our household."

Yes, many of us have experienced that. "Thinking" and "planning" our way through the possibility of it (a kind of simulation) is challenging (still shakkkking Lon?) but it is also an investment in response flexibility next year.

By contrast, all the mind-gaming in the world on this forum by DGIs (and even, though I hope not, by some GIs) won't substitute for hard preparation when it comes to making it through worst-case scenarios.

I admit, I'm having a harder time conceptualizing cyber-terrorism and/or nuke scenarios than Y2K itself but, fortunately, most of the Y2K preps do double duty by definition.

You know, I have heard fallout shelters mocked on this forum, yet the Cuban Missile Crisis WAS one step away from catastrophe. I remember the fear on the faces of adults quite vividly. The world literally held its breath for a week or so. In fact, folks who built those shelters WERE prudent, not nuts, given the history as we found out about it LATER.

Cheap prediction: if TEOTWAWKI doesn't happen next year, I'll bet we discover subsequently that various events brought the world to the brink of it in early 2000 in any case ......

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 25, 1999.

GA Russell -- I think more skill-building is going on in the GI community than we see reflected on this forum (which is heavily weighted towards tech folks involved in hard remediation). But you make a good point.

Anyone preparing for TEOTWAWKI should, by definition, be considering and LEARNING a new skill or two (whether there is a return to a pre-industrial situation is not, IMO, a necessary consequence of TEOTWAWKI, however. I happen to believe programming skills will be in even more demand in a world of TEOTWAWKI chaos and rebuilding).

Alas, time is limited, however, and many folks have to support their families this year (and last) while also putting in enormous hours on the basic "see it through" preparations.

However, as a word to GIs who are > 80% prepared, there is still six months or so to think "skills".

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 25, 1999.

Don't know if my post even fits here but I found BigDog's post incredibly thought-provoking. I feel I have been sort of thrown off in our Y2K preps in the last month, though we already have so much prepared we are having trouble figuring out what we still need. First of all, I am pregnant, much to our suprise, and due in early February. This was not intentional, though we are happy and worried. We have a 4 1/2 yr old daughter and thought we could not even have more children. We have ordered an emergency surgical kit with clamps and curved needle and such for a possible at-home delivery, which I am pretty comfortable with. I know how to deliver babies and I've done it before, on both sides of the "table". The thing I worry about is that babies get sick a lot, and if we have an infant, I feel we will be more vulnerable. (In the case of social unrest.) But I just take deep breaths and pray and get through each day.

Something else to throw me off: yesterday, my daughter's little playmate across the street, a 6 year old boy, was run over by a garbage collection truck and killed. We are all in shock. I thought that kind of thing happened *other* places. I had to explain to my daughter, through my own tears, what happened to Patrick. Then I make the mistake tonight of watching "World's Most Horrendous Videos 3" or some such trash getting me even more down. And a storm is on its way, a wonderful late spring storm with baseball sized hail so I better get off this computer. Sorry if this note was a downer, I am glad to see so many are still preparing. And that this forum looks a little more normal now (I dropped out of sight for a while when everyone was posting troll crap.)

-- Preparing (preparing@home.com), May 25, 1999.

Preparing --- Will pray for you and the family you mention. Tonight.

As the husband of a CNM and father of five (two home births), I know more about birth than I should (or want to). Real heartbreak like you saw yesterday plus, um, hormones are a rough combination.

If you'd like to email me, I can have my wife get in touch and brainstorm supplies that you might need and/or put you in touch with folks in your area that might be able to help.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 25, 1999.

BigDog,

You're right on target again. TEOTWAWKI may not be PC, but it's still a sure bet. The question is, "How different will it be?"

Judging from the replies, not much of anyone is too enamoured of the world the way it is; let's just hope that whatever changes come our way are ones that we can handle.

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), May 25, 1999.

Big Dog

Oh so right. Thanks. Preparation is the logical approach. I make these decisions based on the facts as I am able to find them. What I no longer concern myself about are the facts that are being hidden.

My perception of my family has changed. Michael Taylor mentioned his heightened awareness and appreciation of life. I, too, feel that these days.

I have been preparing for a while. No longer do I spend time worrying about TEOTWAWKI. Instead, I enjoy the day and know that I am doing the best I can with what I have available. A simple way to survive.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), May 25, 1999.

Hardliner -- we've had threads that have speculated, but I have been thinking about your question, "how different will it be?" and am judging that one certainty will be vastly heightened UNcertainty about a world that we had taken for granted.

Will the post office deliver my letter?

What happened to my bank deposit?

Will we have fruit delivered this year?

What is happening in Russia now that we have a communications black-out?

Will I ever be called back to work?

.... multiplied hundreds of times.

"Uncertainty", at a minimum, will generate enormous personal and societal stress. History is not encouraging about peaceful exits from that stress, at least short-term exits.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 26, 1999.

B.D.

I'd like to broach another aspect of this, if I might? Y'see, more than the loss of some technology TEOTWAWKI scenario [our preps have included stuff along the lines of what G.A. Russel suggested above], or the severe econonomic depression TEOTWAWKI scenario [already having made those adjustments due to other circumstances], my primary concern is the very distinct possibility of a socio-political TEOTWAWKI. [and man if you think *your* TEOTWAWKI is unpopular...]

Let me be clear from the outset that I DO NOT mean some mythical invasion by external military forces, nor am I afraid of some arcane manipulations by small groups of people belonging to fraternal organizations, or any of the other conmmon conspiracy sorts of things. Sorry, but having been on the inside, and having a clear understanding how things work in the real world, all that grand unified conspiracy stuff is hogwash.

On the other hand, we are facing a very real problem in that here in the United States our social fabric is very frayed, our society is polarized, and there are any number of conflicting groups which are *not* at all happy with the current set of circumstances. This is the fundamental problem when attempting to run large groups by compromise - most of the time *nobody* gets what they want, and in the end most people end up more aware of what they are missing than of what they may still be holding onto. Only the fact that most people are unwilling to risk their current comfortable lives in defense of their ideals prevented the situation from deteriorating further, faster. Should y2k related problems remove access to those oh-so-comfortable perks, many will discover both that they don't seem to have as much to lose as they did before, AND that they really are willing to do something to prevent things from getting away from them further.

Given a federal government which is completely discredited in certain parts of our society. A government which also has a tendency to adopt repressive/paternalistic attitudes, the stage could easily be set for something a lot more 'unrestful' than simply a bunch of poor folks who have nothing to eat due to their welfare checks being late.

and that, in turn, could result in the most nonlinear form of TEOTWAWKI of them all.

just my 2 cents' worth,

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 26, 1999.

Arlin,

I agree and I'll take it a step farther and say that that has to be the larger fear of the PsTB. After all, in any scenario in which the existence of a banking system is meaningful, they'll be able to control it, even if only by shutting it down.

We all may well soon see that indeed, "Freedom's just another word for nothin' left to lose. . ."

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), May 26, 1999.

Arlin said, "Should y2k related problems remove access to those oh-so-comfortable perks, many will discover both that they don't seem to have as much to lose as they did before, AND that they really are willing to do something to prevent things from getting away from them further.

Given a federal government which is completely discredited in certain parts of our society. A government which also has a tendency to adopt repressive/paternalistic attitudes, the stage could easily be set for something a lot more 'unrestful' than simply a bunch of poor folks who have nothing to eat due to their welfare checks being late.

and that, in turn, could result in the most nonlinear form of TEOTWAWKI of them all."

In some respects, Koskinen's continued statements that "communities will be on their own" and Bennett's that "martial law is not possible because there is no way to pull it off logistically" have a double edge to them. I'm relieved that the Feds are unlikely to have the resources for major intervention but, yes, fearful, that the flip side is a slide, however temporary or permanent, into a kind of regional and local feudalism.

BTW, to my way of thinking, their comments illustrate the VITAL necessity of thinking carefully about the community one wants to be found in around Dec. 15 or so. Listen, folks, Y2K is a singular event. Don't be embarrassed or think you're a fanatic if you make plans now for a month or so bug-out while you monitor events (if not Dec. 15, maybe Jan. 5 when the first results start trickling in, but you do run a risk it may be too late). That's assuming you can't relocate.

Arlin, can you be a bit more specific on your speculations as to what could happen (scenarios), without compromising your sources, as we've discussed privately?

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 26, 1999.

Well put, Big Dog. No sort of certainty is visible yet. Don't waste your time and mental energy fretting about disrespect from others. Literally, "they know not what they do." We are part of a disturbed and dissociated society and all anyone can do is the best they know how.

GA Russell:

...the proper response to a meltdown scenario would be a new homesteading/agrarian lifestyle. I believe that all GI's should be preparing to be productive in the new society. By productive, I am thinking of growing and raising food, and engaging in crafts such as carpentry and knitting/sewing/clothing-making; even cooking on a fire.

Given the current level and distribution of population in the major industrialized countries, this could only come about following a massive population reduction, and even then I think a disorderly interregnum of some length would precede any new balance.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), May 26, 1999.

Big Dog, thanks again for starting this thread. This thread demonstrates the kind of community thoughtfulness that I felt here from the start. Oh, and don't worry about me, I have bug out plans ready to go to various locations. By the way Ashton and Leska...where are you exactly in Cascadia? : )

Arlin, you touched on something that I have thought about often. In a way, I feel that the shift to a public more independent and less reliant on the federal government is one of the things the government fears the most. Thus, the panic about panic they are currently under. You want to know fear and panic? I'm sure it's evident behind closed doors in D.C.

And Preparing...my heart goes out to you, your daughter and the family of Patrick.

Mike =============================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), May 26, 1999.

Preparing, my prayers go with you, your family and your neighbours. Death is always difficult in our society. Be prepared for your daughter to ask about Patrick again, down the road; children sometimes have difficulty grasping death's finality.

Bigdog, thanks for a thought provoking thread. I've quit using TEOTWAWKI mostly because it covers such a large range of possibilities. As more than one person has already said, Y2K has been TEOTWAIKI already. However, just the passage of time changes our world, often unrecognizably (read Future Shock, or talk to someone who's been overseas in a small village); it's hard for me to define what changes are from Y2K and what changes were coming anyway. I think that next year it will be difficult to tell what changes were due to 2 digits, and what changes were not. Some things will be obvious - for example, the grid does fail - some things will be not as clear - for example, a large economic downturn.

As for being optomistic about the other side; we'll get what we build, just as our current society is what we have built it to be. Those of us who are not happy with it have a responsibility to change it, or find/found one more to our liking. Sniping and snarking are not going to get the job done (as I daily remind myself *sigh*).

-- Tricia the Canuck (jayles@telusplanet.net), May 26, 1999.

BD, posted the first response to your thread last night, and checked again this morning to be pleasantly surprised at the quantity and quality of responses to follow. again, good job, you sparked the kind of thread we all dream of.

GARussell (or anyone)- are there discussions or sites related to the type of rebuilding you envision? my wife and i were working on self- reliance before y2k appeared on the horizon, and we have a pretty good start, but are always hungry for more info. i am working on pedal-powered tools as an alternative to 120vac, and i have general do-it-yourselfer type skills, but suggestions and direction are very much appreciated.

BD (or anyone)- home-birthing skills are also something i would like to learn. is there a very good manual you can recommend? i don't expect to have to do this except in an emergency, but after 4q99 that may be more often than now.

my e-mail is real, and i would love to correspond with anyone wishing to share educational resources on rebuilding / agrarian / home- medical skills.

thanx again, Big Dog, and congratulations on this thread.

-- Cowardly Lion (cl0001@hotmail.com), May 26, 1999.

Big Dog...

Let me add my voice to those of all the others: great thread! Keep up the good work.

Sandmann

-- Sandmann (Sandmann@alasbab.com), May 26, 1999.

BigDog- Big hug. Thanks.

Arlin- Yes.

Preparing- God Bless you, your family and the wee one. Prayers for your neighbors for their horrific loss.

Great thread. Thanks everyone.

Blessings...Mercy

-- Mercy (prepare@now.com), May 26, 1999.

Michael Taylor, where exactly are we in Cascadia? Well, since we live with our patients, we've been all over Cascadia, never know where we'll be.
But we're trying to more & more stay on the West side of the greater Portland area in Oregon as D-Day approaches. Remember, our D-Day up here will be that 8-9+ Cascadian Subduction Zone Earthquake, and we don't want to have to deal with getting over all the rivers with bridges down, so ...

But when we get a really good job, we still work from Northern California through British Columbia -- even got a job offer from Alaska once but didn't take it -- on an island, and they have big earthquakes too, and we're not boat experts ;-)

Still pray that you & Mac and your families end up near here in December.

TEOTWAWKI -- revolve around that, nowadays we're either enmeshed in a patient's End Of This World, or on this Forum, or trying to implement the great tips discussed here, or attending Y2K committees, Councils, FEMA, CERT, NET trainings, all preparing for the great unknown. And we're still not ready! even with preps not even beginning to approach the country bug-out ideal.

This takes commitment, time, unflagging energy, mental fortitude, and brackish humor ;^) Love the comradery here, BD & all!

xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), May 26, 1999.

I think the term is "TEOTW as we NOW know it". We are being chastised for rejecting a JIT culture and attempting to return to a level of personal responsibility and self-sufficiency that Richard "older than dirt" Westerlind and Bonnie Camp remind us was the way the world functioned a mere generation or so ago.

The scenario I believe is most likely for next year is a barrage of incessant whining by those who don't like the prices or unavailability of goods or the third worldlike environment where lots of things just don't work very well, etc. I think that qualifies as "TEOTW as THEY know it", but clearly not armageddon. To the extent that these are not life-threatening situations, I expect I will be extremely unsympathetic, having spent more than a year troubleshooting and preparing for what I can so that I can avoid as many bumps next year as possible and start a new life's adventure.

For me, it will be TEOTWAIKI the moment my parents move in. If Y2K is the cause of their relocation, then it will have had a dramatic impact on my life. I suspect I will survive, though (and I hope they are still around next winter to drive me crazy).

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), May 26, 1999.

Thanks for starting this thread. It looks as if Im the first polly to jump in it, but here goes. TEOTWAWKI is very undefined. It means different things to different people. If you believe as R believes, then your title (T still a possibility) is true. I too can believe that next year supplies will be limited (no longer 100 kinds of cola) and more expensive. I can also believe that some will suffer hardships on a personal level, especially in countries not taking Y2K seriously. So we part of that term doesnt necessarily mean all of us will suffer the same consequences.

TEOTWAWKI means we will each find some parts of our lives changed and this will vary with each individual. Some may not suffer as much as others. If this is the true definition of T then of course there will be disruptions and our lives will be affected. I might further guess that even all pollys will agree with the threads title. Based on this definition, the infrastructure can remain in tact, yet T can happen for some of us. Did I get this right?

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), May 26, 1999.

I think that's the overall message of the thread, Maria. If at some point in January I have to wait in line an hour to get gas, then there is some substance to the notion that, as far as I'm concerned, it's the end of the world as I know it. If next spring I couldn't get seeds and planted a tomato seed from this year's crop and ended up with a rose, it would be TEOTWAIKI. Know what I mean?

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), May 26, 1999.

BigDog,

You couldn't have put it better.

Keep up the good work. You will have inspired someone to prepare through a logical examination of reality rather than spin.

Prayers anyone?

Father

-- Thomas G. Hale (hale.t@att.net), May 26, 1999.

Maria said [I reply]

Thanks for starting this thread. It looks as if Im the first polly to jump in it, but here goes. TEOTWAWKI is very undefined. It means different things to different people. If you believe as R believes, then your title (T still a possibility) is true.

[I implicitly defined TEOTAWAKI for the purposes of this thread along the lines of Yourdon's expectation of a genuine depression, intensity somewhat undefined, but lasting five to ten years before done. Note: one can have a depression without the grid going down, martial law, etc.]

I too can believe that next year supplies will be limited (no longer 100 kinds of cola) and more expensive. I can also believe that some will suffer hardships on a personal level, especially in countries not taking Y2K seriously. So we part of that term doesnt necessarily mean all of us will suffer the same consequences.

[Agreed. I expect conditions in some countries around the world to be majorly worse than here, though I believe we will see a devolutionary cycle for some time in U.S., but dragging us down at a somewhat higher "comfort" level" than others.]

TEOTWAWKI means we will each find some parts of our lives changed and this will vary with each individual. Some may not suffer as much as others. If this is the true definition of T then of course there will be disruptions and our lives will be affected. I might further guess that even all pollys will agree with the threads title. Based on this definition, the infrastructure can remain in tact, yet T can happen for some of us. Did I get this right?

[Agreed. OTOH, if we void TEOTWAWKI of any serious content, so that it applies to an individual losing a job this year, say, we are not in the realm I am speaking of. I am (and this is how the term has generally been understood) talking about wide-scale and very serious SOCIETAL problems. The 73-74 recession was not "TEOTAWAKI" even though many individuals had problems. Nor was the Vietnam War. The Depression plus WWII was, IMO (remember, "as we know it"). In fact, WWI was such for Europe.

Remember, I am not predicting TEOTWAWKI, but stating with deep conviction that the CHANCES of it have never been higher in my lifetime, even if that "chance" is, say, 2%. The problem is, Y2K uncertainties PLUS international uncertainties may (if we were omniscient) really constitute a 10% chance or an 80% chance. This is by contrast to the year 1998, say. While we can never be sure the world won't blow up, 1998 chances of TETOWAWKI from infrastructure devolution were, perhaps, .5% or less.

I do agree that an intact infrastructure (grid, telecom, banking) can exist in parallel with TEOTAWAKI, though in fairness to pollys, it is hard to see how one would have intense supply chain breakdown worldwide without some of these core iron triangle breakdowns alongside. What might be more accurate is to say that different countries will experience anywhere from 5% to 100% infrastructure breakdown in a TEOTWAWKI scenario.

Arlin's post is a reminder that none of us understand or can predict the nonlinear social-political consequences of 'x' breakdown. Of course, everything can/will be fixed (I repeat as I often do that computer skills will probably be more, not less, desperately needed in a TEOTWAWKI scenario for national security and economic survival) over TIME, but time may stretch to one, two or ten years globally.

In a trivial sense, we are bound to be fixing Y2K globally for the next five to ten years, given the FOF approach around the world: we don't know yet whether that means "bump" or "TEOTWAWKI".

My core argument is that this time period really is singular (I mean, even if embedded systems turn out to be utterly trivial, when have we EVER had to worry our little heads over that, not to mention many similar matters?) and that a singular intensity of personal and community preparation is warranted ... and, more important, deserves to be honored in spirit.

While there are a few doomer "trolls" (and they are just that) who rant about blowing people away, I don't personally know a single so-called doomer (and I know about 40 personally) who haven't also made sacrifices financially so they are prepared to help others next year consistent with safety. That says something about them and, by bitter contradiction, the way they/I are portrayed by our media.]

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 26, 1999.

Mike - I believe you are absolutely correct in that all of the current federal government's activities are based on the goal of *increasing* power at the federal level and decreasing it at the individual level - they're power gluttons, control addicts if you will...and now they face the distinct possibility of losing that control.

Hardliner - no kidding, but by the time they get up the guts to do that it will only act as an accellerant.

BD -

There are possibilities for both intentional and and unintentional destabilization of the system. The following is a short list of the more obvious ones.

1. Intentional destabilization could be caused by:

A. External forces. Folks this country has a lot of enemies, and not nearly as many friends as we used to have. The environment at rollover promises to be a fruitful one for terrorists, with decreased security and the possibility of multiplying the effectiveness of any terrorist strike due to possible cascade effects resulting from a more fragile than usual infrastructure. In other words the terrorists stand a real chance of getting much more bang for their buck than they normally would.

Unlike the naive suggestions one has seen concerning a hypothetical nuclear attack or some sort of invasion, a well planned and executed terrorist strike could leave this country reeling, with little or no capacity to even begin to locate the perpetrators, much less strike back at them. At the same time emergency services, already functioning at a reduced capacity, would be strained to the breaking point and infrastructural losses could be incurred which might take a decade or more to regain.

Lest you think this scenario to be totally off the wall, let me give you a *relatively* simple method whereby all of the above might be easily attained, were one of the mindset to do such a thing:

We already know that the former soviet union lost control of upwards of 100 small nuclear devices during the transition to the current CIS. *One* such device could placed in a *heavily cushioned and shielded* standard cargo container, and set to detonate on January 15th (after initial emergency resources have already been allocated to emergencies which developed at the rollover). Then simply shipped as standard containerized cargo via a reliable shipping company from any one of a number of third world ports; FOB New York City with a guaranteed pickup date at the dock of January 15th. ...and that's just one possibility.

B. Internal forces. The most obvious source of intentional destabilization activities in this country would be from the various white supremacist groups (aryan nations, national front, the identity cultists, etc. The folks who funded the OKC bombing are still around. One of their stated goals is to force the federal government to become so repressive that it engenders a general uprising among the population. The supremacists don't give a hoot about the rest of us, but they're hoping that they can sieze and hold territory of their own, if the federal government is pinned down or otherwise distracted.

[NOTE TO ASHTON AND LESKA: one of the areas the supremacists lust after is Cascadia. If you see people walking around in black BDU's with a patch shaped like a white hand on their chest LEAVE THEM ALONE! Those are Aryan Nations paramilitaries (which have been known to operate in your area) Call the sheriff and report them, but do NOT go near them.]

2. Unintentional destabilization could be caused by:

A. An overwhelming number of refugees within a given area. Folks it's gonna be the middle of winter. If a rural area, even a well prepared rural area, suddenly finds itself inundated by a significant percentage of the population of a major urban area, there can be no doubt that local emergency services will quickly be overwhelmed. Once that occurs, there will be problems. Same goes for one functional urban area if it becomes the destination of a significant portion of the population of one or more dysfunctional urban areas. Of what intensity and for how long such problems may continue are difficult to determine, due to all of the other variables involved.

[Note to those planning on bugging out at the last moment: You might want to reconsider your timing lest you find your favorite off-ramp to your destination blocked by a couple dump truck loads of sand and gravel. If you're north of the snow line, that sand may well have been soaked down with water in the bargin.]

2. Any attempt by the federal government to exert forceful influence over a given area will undoubtedly cause unrest. While martial law is impossible on a national scale, it would still be possible within a few urban areas. Additionally, the current federal administration's attitude towards firearms owners might lead it to consider some form of suppression or confiscation in a long term emergency - were this to occur there would be violent reactions both within and outside of the effected region. Attempts to sieze and "redistribute" private property would be met with similar reactions.

All in all, there are several possibilities that could lead to significant destabilization of our society in the short term, and almost any such destabilization will undoubtedly mark whatever sort of political and social structures emerge thereafter.

just my 2 cents' worth, Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 26, 1999.

Thank you for the warning, Arlin. The style of dress around here is very individualistic, Express Yourself, so we do ppl-watch. Please forgive our ignorance, but what are BDUs? "black BDU's with a patch shaped like a white hand on their chest." Please explain and we will gratefully heed your warning.
Of course ppl lust after Cascadia -- the most beautiful land on Earth (unless somebody has pictures to prove otherwise) ;^)
Sigh, another thing to learn and be alert about.

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), May 26, 1999.

BDU's are "Battle Dress- Utilities"

They originally came in Green and Camoflage. they now come in - whatever -. they are basicaly a reasonably loose fiting shirt of EXTREMELY STURDY fabric with both breast pockets and side hand pockets. the pants match in material, and have standard slash pockets, hip pockets, and pockets at about the knee level. If they are black, withthe patch, you might be in trouble. If the wearer is either shaven-headed, or VERY SHORT HAIRED, you could conceivably have a BIG problem.

I don't remember, Arlin, are these the single ear stud guys too?

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), May 26, 1999.

Thanks, Chuck. Sorta sounds like our uniforms, uh-oh, and we shave our heads in the summertime to support our chemo pts, hope nobody thinks we're dangerous. Nah, too nursey looking. Knowing folks in these parts, nobody has a chance of taking over. Just in our tiny patch of paradise, in the last month we have noticed ppl walking around out in the open with an arsenal array -- what the heck they're doing we have no idea, but they certainly are armed for something, and they're of all types. Hhhmmm. Thanks again.

xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), May 26, 1999.

Heads up, BD, the Pope too has tapped into your thread thoughtstream:

[ For Educational Purposes Only ]

Pope Ponders the End of the World

Pope Ponders the End of the World
Wednesday, May 26, 1999; 12:25 p.m. EDT

VATICAN CITY (AP) -- Pope John Paul II said Wednesday that it is natural for humans to wonder when the world will end, and advised all to await the day with serenity and hope. [ Uh, psst, don't forget to mention PREPS ]

``Nowadays, everything happens with incredible speed -- because of the breakthroughs in science and technology and the expanded means of communication,'' the pontiff said at his weekly audience in St. Peter's Square.

``It is therefore natural to question what humanity's destiny is and what its final goal is,'' he said.

The pontiff, who turned 79 last week, told the hundreds of pilgrims who assembled in the square on this perfectly sunny day that the tension surrounding the ``final event'' must be faced with ``calm hope.''
--------------------------------------------------------------
Wonder what he too knows and isn't telling ...

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), May 26, 1999.

A note to lurkers and/or regulars who don't know Arlin. He is not a conspiracy buff AT ALL, has military intelligence training in his past and lots of, shall we say, reliable contacts in the present.

Don't discount his post (BTW, Leska, that isn't aimed at you). In this domain, Arlin is as expert as others here are with computer systems.

At the same time, he isn't predicting a specific event. Use a post like this as more data for deciding what you personally are comfortable with as you prepare.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 26, 1999.

Fifty answers and not a troll or polly in sight. Knock on wood.

Thanks Arlin for your post. It is filled with commen sense concerns. I don't see how we'll escape terrorism. That concerns me more than y2k.

BD,

teotwawki does not mean the end of the world

Right on. A global depression will clearly be teotwawki.

-- bb (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), May 26, 1999.

Chuck - we haven't seen the earpost thing consistently, but would be interested if there was specific information on this one way or the other.

Ashton & Leska - Chuck gave a pretty good description - think of pictures you've seen of SWAT teams dressed in black - they're like that only with the white hand patch. BTW: You wont be mistaken for them, if you're known by the locals....the supremacists always stay by themselves. Other than that, there are a number of different organizations up in your area - so it's hard to say who you may have seen.

B.D. thanks for reinforcing that I wasn't suggesting a specific scenario - just general concerns.

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 26, 1999.

BigDog: Just noticed your request for the link to The Beginning of the World as we Build It (TBOTWAWBI) thread. Here it is if anyone wants to take a look:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch- msg.tcl?msg_id=000Phr

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@com.net), May 26, 1999.

The link above does not work. Don't know why, since it looks correct. Anyway, the thread is in the MISC section of the archives under TBOTWAWBI.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@com.net), May 26, 1999.

Thanks, Arlin. We're hermits but well-known to the medical community and our little storage apt complex, and don't wear a lot of black. Green is the healing therapy color ;^)
Those armed to the gills are actually our neighbors, all around us. Wow! They're busy carrying guns back & forth to their cars, never seen so many guns. Yikes! Hope the folks upstairs don't shoot us thru the ceiling accidentally.
Something is definitely up. We take walks, and every time, strolling down the sidewalks in various neighborhoods, we see people taking guns out of their trunks and nonchalantly bringing them in ... is this the red truck syndrome or something more? Are we sitting ducks? QuACK!

xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), May 26, 1999.

Leska,

If they've been transporting their firearms in vehicles for any length of time, and haven't got bullet holes in the trunk, they probably aren't going to accidentally discharge a round through your ceiling either. :-)

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 26, 1999.

We just want to thank BigDog & Arlin and all of you who have discussed issues that may very well become urgent realities in the too-near future. Many of these concerns go way beyond our comfort zone, but the Bug bites and deflates many cushy bubbles, and we do want to see and prepare and not keep our heads in the sand all the time.

Scanning the News today is one gasp and frown after another -- it certainly seems patience is in short supply and adversaries are itching to war. Things are heating up, the frog is kicking and trying to hop out, and is getting glaringly obvious:

TEOTWAWKI is roaring down the tracks, a freight train out of control.

Are there no brakes, can it not be put in reverse? Does nobody notice? Here it comes, louder ...

xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), May 27, 1999.