What two experts say

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Tuesday, 25-May-1999 17:55:45 writes:




CPR: Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 7.2. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 7.0. January 1999- 6.7. February 1999- 6.7. March 1999- 5.5. April 1999- 3.5 to 4.5. May 1999- 2.0 to 3.5. B.Sc. (Physics,Chemistry,Biology), M.A.(Mathematics), Businessman,Dallas.. programs in 9 languages has been working with Computers for 20 years..

(May 1999): "Please change my evaluation of the y2k problem down again almost to the Nick Z. range: 2.0-3.5. It would take a series of major exposes about "uncomplete-able work" before I would raise that range which includes now 2/3rds due to "Y2k panic vendors". Even that is almost over. The "fever" is broken."

"Dallas is a MAJOR I.T. center and a Y2k remediation center. The DFW/DAMA Y2k group has had presentations from most major corporations, Texas Utilities and the Fed.Reserve Bank and all present the view point that they can manage their problems. The HCFA seminar show progress even in lagging Health related Enterprises, gov. and private."

"The theme here is simple: "There will be failures but they will be "managed"."

"My view now is that Y2k as a business/computer problem is OVER ...IF... work in progress continues at the increasing rates being reported. We know the knowledge base accumulated over the past five years is being deployed by the Legitimate Consultants and Vendors at increasing rates. Most of the "scary stories" now are merely about the Public or OLD re-hashes of "what-ifs" or "lets pretend". "Lets Pretend" was a radio show that went off the air by the early 1950s. Y2k is heading that way now."

"Y2k has reached the stage nicely described in Corinthians: "Why seek ye after a vain thing?" Its not over but it is "winding down". Those who don't see this are now the ones in "denial". If I have one special expertise in Y2k it is in tracking the "Extremists" and Fear Pushers and now, the "Back of Y2k Hysteria" has been broken just as de Jager discusses the REAL PROBLEM: the Computer/Embedded Systems related problems. There will always be niche panic people over any issue. NOW.....few believe the claims of the Y2k "Extremists"."

"There is now simply too much evidence that the Fortune 2000, even SMEs and the Government entities have a "problem that can be managed" no matter how many breakdowns may come from the Code or the Embedded systems problems."

"Contingency plans including inventory stockpiling would enable even the GMs of the world to function until "Weak Links" in the vendor or even customer lines can be "Fixed on Failure"."

"The NERC summary and the NRC release clears up the status of the Utilities and there is little need to debate the Telco or Bank progress. The Security Industry is on track."

"As for "Public Panic" NOT BLOODY LIKELY if the so-called "Iron Triangle" performs as now expected."

"And recently, there has been a significant drop in the commerce associated with the Web Sites pushing so-called Y2k Supplies. Business is off by their own reports."

"Just last week, Y2kNewswire.com reported that several vendors are in trouble because the PUBLIC is returning merchandise. The "purported" shortage of Honda Diesels has been corrected by Honda shipping to distributors and Honda can ramp up more if they see the need is there."

(March 1999): "The release of the Corporate information has reduced the possibility of any impacts from the Y2k computer date problem into a more than manageable range. I rate the Computer/Business problem now at 3.0. However, the public hysteria due to widespread confusion about remediation makes the Public perception now a major part of the Y2k problem. I rate that as : an additional 2.5 or almost equal to the Computer Business problem."

(August 1998): "Disclosures of the timelines of some major Corps re: completion of Y2k work. In particular: AT+T, Texas Utilities, BankBoston and the City of Dallas. In addition, the State of Texas is meeting all goals as described to Rep. Horn in testimony last Monday here in D/FW. Last but not least, private communications to me show that other Banks and Utilities are in much better shape than reported."

Alan Simpson

J Alan Simpson. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.0. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 6.0. January 1999- 6.0. February 1999- 5.5. April 1999- 5.0. May 1999- 4.5. Author. Information Technology executive. International broadcaster and speaker. Satellite communications pioneer. http://www.comlinks.com

(May 1999): "On the face of it industry and government appears to have everything under control. My concern now is that extreme groups may precipitate problems, and create an avalanche effect. The number of Y2K viruses that have been identified is cause for concern, especially as some are expertly targeted, and need extensive intelligence to create. The message: don't drop your guard, or plan that victory celebration, at least not this month."

(February 1999): "The USA appears to have sufficient critical systems fixed as to avoid any major problems. My concern is the potential slowdown around the world. We have successfully contained the Japanese economic collapse, and the Russian collapse. The unknown factor is have we sufficient reserves to weather these, what else may be looming, and problems globally caused by Y2K. My advice is "Be prepared", with a far reaching contingency, communications, and business continuity plan. That includes alternative sources of raw materials. We should not be concentrating on what may fail, but "how quickly can we fix whatever may fail, and get back to normal."

(January 1999): "Looking at the communication of Y2K, I see an orchestrated effort being made to eliminate any discussion of positive progress. Anyone not preaching a survivalist, apocalyptic message, is attacked, and their credibility questioned. Engineers who have spent a lifetime working with computers and communications, are being flamed by faceless nerds, for being referred to as "experts", and trying to bring reason to the public. Beware of intolerant extremists. Don't let Y2K become the fire at the Reichstag"

(December 1998): "Assuming that the information from industry and government is reasonably accurate, it appears even more that critical systems will function, and overall Y2K will be an annoying irritation, and not a technological disaster. The problem now is that panic, generated for profit, will create an atmosphere of hysteria, and without effective national and international leadership, this "self-fulfilling prophesy" can bring about some of the failures we are all trying to avoid. There is still much to be done, and even then there will be isolated failures. Companies with weak and poor management, especially SME's who choose to ignore all the publicity on Y2K, will have a difficult time. We can lead our horses to water, but we can't make them drink!"

(October 1998): "As I keynote customer and supplier meetings around the country, I find many success stories that lead me to believe hard work and dedication is paying off. Whilst there will be many inconveniences, and a possibility of some cascading failures, I believe the ingenuity of the workforce will prevail in finding ways to minimize the effects of Y2K. We are still not in the clear yet, and this effort must continue till 2000."

(August 1998): "We still do not have sufficient reliable information to make an accurate estimation for the United States, and we are in the dark for most of the world, our trading partners. As we move into the home stretch, we need to focus on sectors in which we have a reliable track record, so as to filter out the false information and downright lies. One suggestion is that each "expert" gives his/her rating on a specific sector, or combination of sectors, along with "USA", "Asia", "Europe", "SAmerica" and "Africa". "

"US telecommunications will have problems, but will be able to operate at a reduced percentage, same with aviation. You can have 70% of the telephone circuits, and still survive. Now take Healthcare....If you have 70% of an operation, or 45% of antibiotics, you are probably dead."


-- CT (ct@no.yr), May 25, 1999


Yes and the average of all 24 experts was a 7.

How bout that.

-- a (a@a.a), May 25, 1999.

Pollys don't want ALL the facts... They just want the ones that let them HIDE emotionally from the reality that they're SCREWED. After rollover, they'll never be able to look their loved ones in the eye again. (assuming, of course, that their loved ones survive).

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), May 25, 1999.

Good parody, Dennis. But I don't think the loonies really need to be parodied. They do well all unintentionally.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 25, 1999.

I just don't understand why you are presenting only one view of whether or not Y2K is serious. For a more realistic view, I suggest you visit: EXPERTS LINK

-- Sandmann (Sandmann@alasbab.com), May 26, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ