When I arrived at work today a couple of people were discussing the 60 minutes y2k spot. One person said the government would not allow DC to suffer a breakdown. Another said that the US would be alright. The first person said Montgomery County(next to DC and where we live and work) would be fine.

Often on this board I read posts that are so narrow in focus that they remind me of these people. If we are unable to see this as a worldwide problem, then how can we expect those that are new to this to understand the concept.

What brings this up is the increasing amount of bad news worldwide. The stock downgrade today was predicated on the inability of third-party emerging country banks being non-compliant. If the analysts on the street can see this, why should I not be able to see the same. These money-center banks are owed billions of dollars by countries like Brazil and Mexico etc. What happens if these banks cannot collect their loans? That was the question being asked today. For years the IMF has loaned these countries enough money to pay the interest on the loans. That happy game is about to end.

I worry about the utilities, food, medicine, telecommunications etc. If we are worried for ourselves, and we are ahead of the rest of the world, then where will these countries be in 7 months?

Now I have to face the mirage. The US is ahead of the world and will recover quickly. I think not. Much has been made of the splendid ability of this country to be an economic miracle in the middle of worldwide problems. This false perspective is based on an economic policy that is becoming harder to balance. It will not survive y2k.

I really need to understand that the problem exists. I need to know that y2k is the straw.

Much has been mentioned of the condition of this country. Factoring all that I have learned, do I have an opinion on the condition of the world? Yes, I do. It is not pretty.

So for every business that I see is compliant, there are a thousand, maybe many thousands in the rest of the world that are not compliant.

The US is not an island.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), May 24, 1999

Answers

it must be a "Mike" thing, bud...I'm right there with you.

Mike ====================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), May 24, 1999.

Agree.

-- Big "MIKE" Dog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 24, 1999.

Well said.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna (perhaps, formerly known as Mike in a previous life)

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), May 24, 1999.

'Much has been made of the splendid ability of this country to be an economic miracle in the middle of worldwide problems. This false perspective is based on an economic policy that is becoming harder to balance.'

When our country's access to cheap labor and physical resources provided by emerging markets recedes -- then we will see where the balance is. Who has been giving and who has been taking? I think our illusions of our own history will be challenged and forever changed.

Economic miracles usually benefit only the ruling class. I remember a inlaw who traveled to Peru and Columbia on summer educational grants, who told us of the Care Packages and blankets that still set in the church basement of a village while the people were homeless after an earthquake.

so many of our perceptions of ourselves and our place in the world is already being challenged.

-- Shelia (Shelia@active-stream.com), May 25, 1999.

I saw something a few months ago but cant find the link to a study by Capers Jones that predicted Y2K impact as function of Y2K % Compliance. If memory serves the following is an approxiamtion of his findings:

IF 80% to 90% is compliant than MILD RECESSION. If 70% to 80% is compliant than SEVERE RECESSION. IF 60% to 70% is compliant than DEPRESSION. IF 50% to 60% is compliant than SEVERE DEPRESSION. IF less than 50% compliant than total collapse of government and possible famine.

If memory serves, he estimated a 75-85% as best case for the USA, Canada and UK. And a 65-75% for Europe and most of the rest of the world as best case.

I'll look for the link and post as soon as I find it.

Peace,

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), May 25, 1999.

Yup.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 25, 1999.

There is just too much knowledge for any one person to have a good well-rounded understanding of the world. So, we specialize.

As for the "bottom-line", let's hope the Pollys are correct!

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), May 25, 1999.