DISCLAIMER: This material is reposted from c.s.y2k to stimulate discussion of the projected scope of the y2k problem. The views expressed are the author's, not necessarily mine. However, I fail to find arguments that would persuade me to dismiss this possible scenario out of hand.

Subject:	Transcribed From 60 Minutes
Date:	1999/05/24
Author:	fedinfo <fedinfo@halifax.com>
	Posting History

The following excerpts come from the conclusion of this piece: _______________________________   CBS Correspondent Steve Kroft narration:   KROFT:   One of the prime concerns for Washington and other communities throughout the country is drinking water. Computerized water and wastewater treatment facilities use embedded computer chips in their control systems. Some of the chips in those water systems have been tested for Y2K, and have failed. Mary Ellen Hanley (sp) believes that Washingtons water system can run without its computer controls, but she acknowledged she may have to develop contingency plans, for water rationing.   KROFT: WHAT WOULD CAUSE WATER TO BE RATIONED?   HANLEY (Washingtons year 2000 Program Manager:): If we lose power, through the power grid, as any other state or city around us, including Montgomery County, we will not be able to function normally, and will have to go to considerable slowdowns that will produce--could produce, uh, rationing, for example.   KROFT: Youre preparing contingency plans that there might be no power?   HANLEY: Yes.   KROFT: For how long?   HANLEY: Were looking roughly at what we would consider national averages, uh, one to two weeks.   KROFT: One to two weeks without power?   HANLEY: One to two weeks.   ===========================     If one to two weeks are 'averages' then there are going to be much longer outages in places. How about NYC, LA, Chicago, Boston?   NYC can not go two weeks without power. Neither can any major city.   Then again, the government has vociferously DENIED that there would be more than 72 hour blackouts and this woman talks about national averages of one to two weeks being bandied about.   Think of the progression, folks. At first they said they would get it all fixed. Then they said most of it would get fixed. Then they said that the Mission critical systems would get fixed. Then, they said 'most' of the mission critical systems would get fixed...and all along they laughed at extended outages and now they are talking about one to two week average outages.   The facts are that they will be far far longer than that.   No major city will remain standing. No electricity. No water. No food. No sewerage.   And don't forget that Bennett said that martial law was beyond the capability of the Federal machinery and that states and local municipalities would have to fend for themselves.   When power was out in NYC for ONLY a mere 24 hours there was looting and rioting.   One week? Two weeks? More. NYC and every major city will burn to the ground.   When Mary Ellen Hanley says she 'believes' that then DC water sytem can run without its computer controls, you have to laugh. How long does it run without power as well? Her 'belief' is one thing. She did not back it up with ANYTHING at all.   Think about this too. 85% percent of all projects of this scope and magnitude FAIL. Yet, amazingly, not one single major entity has admitted that it will not make it. Is this not wonderful? 30 years of IT track record OUT THE WINDOW just this once. Let's say that we turned the statistics completely on their head and allowed that 85% actually DID get it done and only a mere fifteen percent failed. Where are they? Not even 15% have admitted serious trouble.   The truth is that it is far far far worse than is being let on. Most will not even KNOW that they have failed until right at the very end, when they find out that they are hopeless. And even THEN they will not go public, exacerbating the problems and the panics that will come because they FAILED to disclose the TRUTH.   They have spent less than HALF of what is necessary to do even a marginal job.   If you live in DC or in ANY major city, you are dead meat.     -- Paul Milne If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast. --== Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/ ==-- ---Share what you know. Learn what you don't.---

-- a (a@a.a), May 24, 1999

Answers

Well, maybe we will soon find out. The news today is that Belgrade (maybe the whole country, I don't remember) is now without any water or power. I wonder how many had the sense to store away some water and food before the lights went out? If the people in Belgrade didn't prepare after the first bomb fell, how can you expect Americans to prepare for anything re y2k? I hope the CNN reporters in Belgrade tell us how it is living in such circumstances.

Got beans and water and a potty box??

Taz

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), May 24, 1999.

got guns?

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), May 24, 1999.

Actually, DC (or LA) CAN go without power and water for two weeks... the problem is that the results of such a situation (panic, dehydration, disease, rioting, etc.) wouldn't be pretty.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), May 24, 1999.

I'm new to all this. Who is Paul Milne and what are his credentials?

Thank you.

-- Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 24, 1999.

Scoll down to Uncategorized Threads and search on Milne.

-- a (a@a.a), May 24, 1999.

I found the uncategorized thread but I'm at a loss as to how you do a search. Suggestions?

-- Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 24, 1999.

Triple "a" with an "@":

You seem to be pretty impressed with Mr. Milne's qualifications since most of your posts are reposts of what he has said. Go ahead and list them, of should I do it for you?

-- Bob Brock (bbrock@i-america.net), May 24, 1999.

As has been often posted, Mr. Milne is a former commodities broker from the New York City area. He has done extensive research into Y2K and is not embarrassed to state his conclusions based upon the evidence. His opinions have been written about in just about every major newspaper and magazine in this country as well as having been featured on television and radio in this and many foreign countries.

He has a small but vocal group of detractors headed by one Mr. Brock. The difference between the two, as I have observed, is that Mr. Milne cites voluminous evidence and documentation in support of his opinions, while Mr. Brock follows behind, whining and moaning about the conclusions and documents absolutely none of his opinions.

The main thrust of Mr. Milne's remarks is that personal preparation is absolutely paramount.

The main thrust of Mr. brock is to detract from anything and everything that Mr. Milne has to say regardless of the content or documentation provided by Mr. Milne.

I am not sure yet how it will unfold, but of one thing I am sure. Mr. Brock has contibuted nothing at all to anyone's understanding of the situation. On the otherhand, Mr. Milne has clearly and rationally documented the overwhelming failure of the global remediation effort and the co-responding necessity for substantial personal preparation.

As long as Mr. Brock heads up the 'carp and whine' school of Y2K, you are far far better of taking very seriously what Mr. Milne has to say. At least he backs up everything he says with evidence.

-- Eyes Open (objective@observer.com), May 24, 1999.

Answering Joe, who asks about Milne:

I have ben reading Milne's comments here and in CSY2K for about 2 years. As far as I can tell, he is closer to being on the mark than just about anyone else that I have read.

Brock is a pollyanna detractor who cares nothing for any of the evidence that Milne cites. The more evidence accumulated by Milne, the more crying you get from Brock, especially in CSY2K. In here, Flint is the big crybaby. You can be sure that wherever Milne surfaces here, Flint will be sure to raise his ugly head and vomit.

The main thing as far as I am concerned is simply the evidence. Milne supplies it in SPADES. Flint and Brock supply nothing but pissing and moaning at the conclusions.

My advice, read the evidence supplied by Milne and draw your own conclusions. I just happen to believe, after having read the evidence that he supplies, that his conclusions are correct.

-- Jonsey (who knows@Y2k.com), May 24, 1999.

Eyes: Thanks for our response. You say Mr. Milne is a former commodities broker. What does he do now and why did he leave his commodities job? Better yet, since you say he has been in the news, is there a story about him I could link to, to save you some trouble?

Thanks.

-- Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 24, 1999.

Answering Joe, who asks about Milne:

I have been reading Milne's comments here and in CSY2K for about 2 years. As far as I can tell, he is closer to being on the mark than just about anyone else that I have read.

Brock is a pollyanna detractor who cares nothing for any of the evidence that Milne cites. The more evidence accumulated by Milne, the more crying you get from Brock, especially in CSY2K. In here, Flint is the big crybaby. You can be sure that wherever Milne surfaces here, Flint will be sure to raise his ugly head and vomit.

The main thing as far as I am concerned is simply the evidence. Milne supplies it in SPADES. Flint and Brock supply nothing but pissing and moaning at the conclusions.

My advice, read the evidence supplied by Milne and draw your own conclusions. I just happen to believe, after having read the evidence that he supplies, that his conclusions are correct.

-- Jonsey (who knows@Y2k.com), May 24, 1999.

Brock: How's that?

Joe: You can use your browsers Edit>Find menu option to do the search.

-- a (a@a.a), May 24, 1999.

I don't read this forum every day and so I might not be up to speed all the time about the infighting on this forum. Almost everything What I.ve read from Flint does not have the above flavor that the above poster seems to be stating. From what I have read Flint is very well prepared and that indicates to me at least that he expects something to happen with this Y2K thing. I don't quite understand why anyone would be "flaming him" Maybe my reading comprehension is not up to par but I do have a "Canadian Education" so I can't blame my lack of reading skills on that. Maybe its a "senior monent" but at such a young age I hope not.

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), May 24, 1999.

Thany you, Jonsey. Someone just sent me an email saying that Milne was in fact a commodities broker until about 1993, when he realized something was about to "go wrong" in a big way (presumably it had something to do with international financial systems collapse).

The email continued saying that Milne was so convinced of a coming global financial calamity that he quit his job, moved to some rural location in Virginia, and began living off the land, home schooling his kids and became an electrician to make extra money. They said this occurred three years before Milne knew anything about Y2k.

As far as you know, is this correct?

Thank you.

-- Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 24, 1999.

As far as it goes, it is correct.

Presently, I earn my living as an electrician. I moved to Virginia before I was aware of Y2K, principally because of my understanding of the grotesquely huge debt problem that is only waiting to explode. My concern was that south eastern Asia was ready to implode. It did, but it is far from over yet. Japan has yet to go the final mile. It will, very soon, now.

I wanted my family to be in a place where we had reduced our dependencies and live in an isolated place of relative safety.

I was in a fortunate environment when I found out about Y2K. Since then I have done extensive reasearch. From the evidence, not only concerning Y2k, but the horrendous economic environment and context in which it will occur, that we will experience a socio-economic collapse. No hedging. No ifs, ands or buts.

Most people do not 'like' this conclusion. Rather than debate the evidence, they attack the messenger. No skin off my nose.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), May 24, 1999.

Well, Mr. Milne, let me say I'm both surprised and honored that you would responde to me directly, considering your following on the Internet and your apparent celebrity status regarding Y2k.

As a professional researcher, I am still sorting things out concerning this phenomenon, and I suspect I will be questioning everyone from all side of this issue, and rightly so. Therefore, if you are willing, I will take you to task.

But let me say this. There is a vitriolic aire in some of your responses and responses directed at you to which I don't not wish, nor will enter into. Understand, from the inception of my questioning to it's conclusion, that I fault no man who does what he thinks best to protect his family.

With that, hopefully we will enter into a spirited discovery.

Sincerely,

Don't Know Joe (Cory named me that)

-- Don't Know Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 24, 1999.

Paul,
What is your take on the "sell ratings" given to some of the banks today?
Mr.K

-- Mr. Kennedy (Mr.K@a.crossroad), May 24, 1999.

Joe, In all honesty, there is little left to discover except the actual unfolding of the events.

They will be severe. Of that there is no doubt. Will a bank run precipitate things? Will a Fortune 500 Co go belly up? Will there be a spectacular failure fomenting a panic? I don't know.

It makes little difference. The only thating that CAN make a difference is removing one's family from populated areas and making substantial preparations.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), May 24, 1999.

Mr. Kennedy, My take is this:

It is plain common sense. The reason given for the sell recommendation was no more than that the risks of holding the stock were outweighed by the risks. This is not rocket science. It is identical, in every way, to what I have said all along.

The individual compliance of any institution is completely moot. They are subject to their vendors, suppliers, customers, utilities and all manner of other third parties over which they have absolutely no control whatsoever.

The risk of holding ANY stock at all, at this point in time, is far outweighed by the risk of loss.

Why the losses occur, or how they ocur is irrelevant. Some people will withdraw their funds because they are well informed. Some, becuase they see others making withdrawals. Others, becuase Elvis told them to do so. But, the bottom line is that once it begins, everyone will be rushing for the door at the same time.

The panic is inevitable.

As well, the banking system is unsound and can not be maintained.

The levels of debt are astronomical and can not be repaid.

Only an abject FOOL would be a participant in the market at this point in time. The rewards are dwarfed by the potential risks.

The ones with the highest levels of risk will see this first, as they have the most to lose. But, they will not go about their liquidation publically. You will only find out about it in the newspaper AFTER the fact. And the, quite frankly, it will be too late for the man in the street.

The ONLY way to be absolutely sure that your asets are safe is to remove them into your own physical possession. What is your risk then? To forgo the miniscule interest rate that the bank offers you? To forgo a little more upside movement in the market? As weighed against the losses of a collapse. Clearly it is unsound to remain in the market.

Even a child understands that the last one out is a rotten egg.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), May 24, 1999.

Ah, yes, I see, Mr. Milne. I should be so correct in saying that your tire of explaining your position; is that right?

Well, no matter. I do not wish for a recitation of your beliefs. I will do the proper thing and research your observations now that I know some of your background.

Suffice to say, I take it, that you have concluded by your statement above that there can be no means of mitigation, other than on a personal level, to maintain the societal structure we presently embrace. Is this correct? Is it that the human equation, that must play a role in the final conclusion of this event, plays to the more primal instincts than to the common good? In your view, have we gone that bad?

Thank you

-- Don't Know Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 24, 1999.

Yes, I tire of the repetition. It is all out there.

As I see it, there are no means of mitigation other than the personal, at this point. And this does not mean that personal preparedness gurantees anything at all other than the best chance of surviving.

If Town "A" prepares and is surrounded by unprepared towns "B", "C", "D" and "E", then Town "A" is in deep trouble.

Populated areas will be the worst places to be. Our 'society' is now become one of total interdependence, instead of what it once was, that made us great, self-reliance, individual responsibility.

And yes, most of all, it was always human nature that precluded a successful remediation, not a technical inability to do so. We have not 'gone' that bad. We always 'were' that bad.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), May 24, 1999.

Well, DKJ, people always lean toward their primal instincts. That is to survive. Some people perceive "surviving" as screwing others over so they come out on top, with the most money and toys. Self preservation. That has been the game all along.

However, the game rules are changing quickly.

Paul, I agree with your insight. Have all along. My wife, Mrs. K , handles the investments end in our family. She closed out our 401K and drastically changed our strageties months ago. To blazes with the so-called penalties and fees. We've lost more than that in commodity trading. People that smoke spend more on cigarettes in 5 years than what we lost, and we won't be wheezing. Our skeleton banking account is used for cashing, not depositing. Needless to say, she and I concur with your analysis. It would have been helpful to have reviewed some of your information mid-last year concerning some of the financial aspects, but Mrs. K formulated our plan of action reviewing the same type of financial trends and reports you tend to follow.

I posted on another thread somewhere else today, It wasn't a matter of "if", it was a matter of "when".

Thanks for your valuable input.

Mr. K

-- Mr. Kennedy (Mr.K@a.crossroad), May 24, 1999.

Paul Milne, I hope this OT question won't offend your need to deal with Y2k issues in the timely manner you see fit.

As a past commodities broker, I guess you feel the stock market will crash to some extent to a major extent. Preferred stocks are more stable than traded stocks. Do you see a major drop in value of Preferred stocks as you do commonly traded stocks and would you suggest selling all preferred stocks?

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), May 24, 1999.

Feller, Nothing personal, but thank you for the laugh. I guess I needed one.

Of what value will ANY type of stock be when it can not be traded? Of what value will a share of stock be when electricity is out and water does not flow? Will you feel more secure with preferred stock when your sewerage lines are back-flooding your home? When the dollar loses its value? When banks collapse? When cities are ablaze?

Of what value will be the T-Bill as D.C. burns to the ground? NY, Chicago, Boston, LA, Philadelphia, Houston, Detroit, Dallas?

When the clouds of toxic chemicals emanate from the defunct and malfunctioning plants in NJ, will your stockbroker be taking your call to sell?

Or would you be far better off having purchased adequate supplies to ensure the safety of your family, hoping that you will never have to use them?

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), May 24, 1999.

So I see, Mr. Milne. That gives me the perspective concerning your conclusions that I was looking for. Thank you for your time.

-- Don't Know Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 24, 1999.

Glad to get a rise out of you Paul. I guess building a Nuke shelter would be more prudent with the sale of the stocks. Just as Don't Know Joe, thanks for your valuable time.

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), May 25, 1999.

Paul Milne's Predictions for January 1999 18 December 1997 ... The problems are not going to kick in two years from now. They have already begun and will intensify. There are tons of companies that have event horizons that will hit them starting Jan 1 1999. ... 4 August 1998 ... Maryland has only a couple of more months to get it right. But what about testing. They are not even at the integrated testing Then, what about the myriad of other systems that will fail on Jan 1 99? ... The media reports have recently exploded. There is ten times more stuff out there now than in December of last year. After January, It will be headline news everyday, and The Six O'clock news will have a daily Y2K section. Try selling your house then. ... 22 September 1998 ... ``January 1 of '99 is going to be a big one,'' said Ken Orr, who runs the Ken Orr Institute, a business technology research organization based in Topeka, Kan. ... Lotsa stuff gonna hit the fan real soon. THEN they will wake up. And THEN it will be too late as they all rush to panic at the same time. ... 23 December 1998 ... January 99 is going to be a far bigger mess than most people realize. ... References: (http://x13.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=299309458&CONTEXT=917979317.3877 76714&hitnum=2) (http://x13.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=377893530&CONTEXT=917979510.3911 84410&hitnum=3) (http://x13.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=393556116&CONTEXT=917979865.3913 81109&hitnum=0) (http://x13.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=425250618&CONTEXT=917979743.3928 88348&hitnum=2)

-- Bob Brock (bbrock@i-america.net), May 25, 1999.

The preceding links were researched by another CSY2k poster. I just used them because Paul's not worth much research.

-- Bob Brock (bbrock@i-america.net), May 25, 1999.

Brock --- and your point is? What is your record of predictions? That Y2K is a crock? That is basically the polly stance.

Here is your old-fashioned 1997-style prophecy: "Y2K is a colossal problem. Huge amounts of money will be spent. Politics will intervene. The world will not be ready. We are heading for a train wreck."

Here is your old-fashioned 1997-style polly rejoinder: "That's just a bunch of hype."

Here is your old-fashioned 1999-style prophcy: "Y2K is STILL a colossal problem. Huge amounts of money have be spent. Politics have intervened. The world will not be ready. Now it is too late: we are destined for a train wreck."

Here is your old-fashioned 1999-style polly rejoinder: "That's just a bunch of hype."

In every way that really means something, you, not Milne have been wrong. Next year, you may find that you were dead wrong.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 25, 1999.

Bob I used to read your drivel on csy2k. You are one of the main reasons I no longer bother to go there. Why don't you go back and play with your other know-nothing retards.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 25, 1999.

I was unaware that a simple inquiry would enlist such a stir. Since the name was brought up and Mr. Brock has entered into this thread, I was wondering if he would be kind enough to expound upon his credentials and the background he brings to this debate. The difficulty here is, just like in baseball, you can't tell the players without some type of program. Sometimes they'er not even real players, and that's what I need to determine. No offense. Thank you.

-- Don't Know Joe (JoeSeeky@aol.com), May 25, 1999.

Taz:

They did show some of the effects of the bombing in Belgrade on National News tonight. Major damage to power grid, which affected the water, sewer, everything we have been talking about.

Lines of people waiting, one lady for six hours, to dribble some water from a small pipe fed by a spring. Six hours!! for a couple of small bottles of water.

Another clip showed a mass of people waiting in lines for a bread shop to bake and then sell it wares.

I saw no traffic, no open stores, only a mass of confused, mad, unhappy humanity.

The thought crossed my mind at the time I saw it, "they are doing this on purpose". To condition us. This is our tommorrow. This is not a story about some distant land, far far away. This is my neighborhood, your neighborhood, this is a succinct perspective of a very near future for many. A microview of post Y2K America, Canada, the whole world.

F2Q is a trip to futility. We will survive, many of us. It will not be easy, it will not be clean, but we will.

Now is the time for all...to come to the aid of *our* country!

-- spun@lright (mikeymac@uswest.net), May 25, 1999.

I suggest getting to know your neighbors very soon!!

I shudder to think what the nights are like in Belgrade.

-- spun@lright (mikeymac@uswest.net), May 25, 1999.

spun,

saw the same disgusting propaganda on the evening "news",

The worst clip (probably staged come to think of it) was a segment on an incubator unit for prem. babies - the lights went out and alarms went off as the lights went out - then the generators kicked in and nurses came running.

They said this was a major hospital in belgrade, there is another one with NO gens.

Now THIS IS US - the USA and UK - how many babies and invalids on life support and dialysis are being murdered in this way????

Disease and worse will surely follow.

sickening

absolutely sickening

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 25, 1999.

From:

http://x34.deja.com/getdoc.xp?AN=441936480&CONTEXT=927609017.121110532 1&hitnum=18

Date: 1999/02/07

Begin quote: -------------

[...] At one time I did business analysis for a large corporation as a "Business Planner". While the hard facts may be out there no one is sharing them. Survey's of the general public seem to indicate that things are going to get pretty rocky in the US. Not because of the actual techincal problem, but because of public perception of the severity of the problem. I'm hesitant to make any type of a prediction beyond that because the situation is still quite fluid and the numbers change so dramatically as project scope changes become more frequent. Should a lot of companies announce compliance or Y2k readiness this June/July, public perception will change dramatically. Unlike some others in this group, I have been in a position to make forcasts and I am accustomed to being held accountable for when those forcasts didn't pan out. It's one thing to say that something is going to happen and it's another to find yourself in a high level manager's office trying to explain why they didn't. Projections without accountability are too easy. I notice that now that those who projected failures and panic are a lot more retrospective about future predictions with one exception. Do I think that Y2k will have no impact. No I don't! Do I think that the infrastructre is going to collapse. No I don't. Do I think that it's going to be somewhere in between. Yes I do. Companies can't spend the amount of money that they have on something that isn't really going to increase productivity without some kind of an adverse impact on their profitability. I personally think that a recession is enevitable. Depression is just a term that came into being because Hoover didn't know squat about economics anyway. If you wind up being the one who is out of work for years on end, even a minor recession is a depression for you. That it's going to have some impact is a view that we both share. That there is enough data available to people like us to make anything close to an accurate analysis/prediction is something that we disagree on. However, I'm not being disingenuous. I'll just have to call it an honest difference of opinion. If you have access to hard numbers or hard data, please share them with the group.

[...]

Regardless of what I believe, I respect another persons right to make the personal decision about when/if it's time to prepare and what preperations are necessary. Some preperations for a worst case scenerio would require that people spend money that they will never recover and/or make lifestyle changes that will have dramatic impact on their lives. It's a decision that they have to make based on what they believe. Should they want any suggestions, advice, or encouragement to help them with their decisions, I will gladly help them in whatever way I can. I'm not condeming those who decide to go that route. I just want to be sure that they aren't basing such life changing decisions on mis-statement of fact or people's opinions who have already shown that they can't analyze the data and come to a correct concusion. ---------------- End quote

My opinion has changed very little since then...

-- Bob Brock (bbrock@i-america.net), May 25, 1999.