Poll finds Y2K fears subsiding

Nearly 80% expect 'little or no' impact on finances

WASHINGTON (AP) - Almost two-thirds of people questioned in a survey about the Year 2000 computer problem said they expect to set aside extra cash in the days before New Year's, but most said it won't be a large amount.

The Gallup poll of 1,606 adults, released Friday, also showed that the vast majority -- nearly 79% -- said they fully expect the Y2K problem to have ''little or no impact'' on their personal finances.

The findings reflect a shift in the nation's mood -- from early fears of Y2K problems causing widespread failures to more recent views that the date rollover will more likely present scattered inconveniences.

The poll, conducted by telephone, was commissioned by Star Systems Inc., the nation's largest electronic banking network, with its Honor and Star automated teller machines, which serve 79 million customers.

''Clearly, the public is becoming more confident as they learn more about Y2K preparations, including testing, that the financial and electronic funds transfer industries have been making,'' said Ronald V. Congemi, Star's president.

Congemi said the results showed 80% of people expect to be able to conduct transactions at ATMs or grocery stores and gas stations on New Year's Day. ''We're excited that consumer confidence has risen so high,'' he said.

Government experts have lauded the nation's financial industry for its work preparing for the technology problem, when some computers originally programmed to recognize only the last two digits of a year could interpret 2000 as 1900.

Most financial institutions -- which are federally regulated -- have set June 30 as a target date for completing all their Y2K preparations.

Sixty-four percent of those surveyed said they plan to withdraw extra cash before Jan. 1, but 52% said the amount won't exceed what they typically spend for a weekday, weekend or holiday.

''Hopefully, these people will follow the advice of numerous government and consumer organizations, recommending that people make any withdrawals in small increments well in advance of Dec. 31,'' Congemi said.

The telephone survey was conducted April 7-22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

-- Norm (nwo@hotmail.com), May 24, 1999

Answers

Norm, stop posting the sub-genius sh*t, NOW.

-- you're (gonna@get.TOSsed), May 24, 1999.

Norm, stop posting the good news sh*t, NOW.

-- Doom (er@diddler.org), May 24, 1999.

Polls of the general public mean NOTHING.

If 79% "feel" there will be no impact, it probably means that 79% got a good nights sleep or didn't overdraw their checking account this week. In other words, these polls have virtually no connection to reality --- no matter what they would say.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), May 24, 1999.

Perhaps the "root word" of "Pollyanna" is "Poll". . .

Anyone who places their faith in the "results" of polls, deserves whatever they get.

I'm as tired of repeating this as I suspect Flint must be: Polls are tools to create and shape opinion.

I prefer to form my own. You are free (even at this late date) to form your own.

Your choice--think for yourself or let someone else do your thinking for you.

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), May 24, 1999.

Why is the poll shit? OK, so it's no good as a means of predicting what Y2K will bring, but then it doesn't pretend to be. It's just a poll. So what's your objection to it?

-- Richard Dymond (rjdymond@x-stream.co.uk), May 24, 1999.

1. The survey was commissioned by an ATM machine company, i.e., an entity that has a significant interest in a positive outcome.

2. "Sixty-four percent of those surveyed said they plan to withdraw extra cash before Jan. 1, but 52% said the amount won't exceed what they typically spend for a weekday, weekend or holiday." Now here's a problem. Does that statement mean that 52% of that 64% won't withdraw more than usual, or does it mean 52% of the entire survey population said they won't take out extra? In any event, there's a problem. You're going to have either 33% or 48% withdrawing more than usual--possibly a heavy burden for the banking system.

In addition, how was the question phrased? Did it allow for those who plan to withdraw the bulk of their finances well in advance of January 1? Did it specify "significantly more" or just "more"?

Until the questions are known it's very difficult to trust the conclusions.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), May 24, 1999.

I've never met a pollyanna with business management expierience

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), May 24, 1999.

The fact that 80% of the people think that y2k is a non-event and will not be preparing is good news?

If you say so, Norm.

-- a (a@a.a), May 24, 1999.

Well, time for a new poll, after the 60 minutes show. Did you watch 60 minutes, Norm? <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), May 24, 1999.

Richard Dymond,

It's not clear just who you were querying with your questions, but in the event that it was me, here is my reply:

To begin with, I did not call the poll "shit". To continue, I did not accuse the poll of attempting to predict the future.

My objection is not to "the" poll, but to all polls, when used as this one was.

As Flint has well instructed us on more than one occasion, a poll is constructed for a specific purpose, and is designed to produce a pre-ordained response.

If all of the criteria are openly and honestly published along with the "results" of the poll, it will be clearly seen what the motives and intentions of the pollsters were.

If, however, only the "results" are published and the criteria remain hidden, the motives are ulterior and the intentions are unknown. This makes, by definition, for a manipulative transaction. That is, one that attempts to manipulate those who are apprised of the poll's "results".

In the instant case, it is clear that those who commissioned the poll (Star Systems Inc., the nation's largest electronic banking network, with its Honor and Star automated teller machines, which serve 79 million customers.) are well served by the "results".

As I clearly stated above, I prefer not to be so manipulated, but to form my own opinions and reach my own conclusions. Also as I stated, your choice may be different.

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), May 24, 1999.

Here's a March poll that Gallup did; Gallup may or may not publish the Star System's poll - I'll continue to check the site and link it if they do.

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), May 24, 1999.

VARIOUS RECENT POLLS ON THE WEB

YARDENI PEOPLE POLLS (FROM ONE OF THE MOST RESPECTED ECONOMISTS IN THE WORLD)

DATE: May 24, 1999 11:50 AM EST

1) Rate the economic impact of Y2K (8864 Total Votes):

Minor disruptions. Business as usual (1586) 18%

Same impact as natural disaster. Business as usual within a few weeks. (1248) 14% Multiple problems will cause modest 6 month recession. (2093) 24%

Major global recession lasting 12-24 months. (2638) 30% Depression lasting 2-5 years. (1299) 15% 2)How much extra cash do you plan to have on Jan. 1, 2000? (4262 Total Votes)

No extra cash. (554) 13% One to four weeks more than usual. (1418) 33% One to three months more than usual. (1243) 29% More than three months of extra cash. (1047) 25% (3) Over the next 12 months, which asset will offer the best return? (3154 Total Votes)

Stocks (711) 23% Bonds (573) 18% Cash (563) 18% Gold & other commodities (1075) 34% Real estate (232) 7% (4) What is the outlook for the US economy over the next 12 months? (2908 Total Votes)

Very good. (344) 12% Good. (547) 19% OK. (791) 27% Bad. (891) 31% Very bad. (335) 12%

(5) Forecast economic growth (real GDP). (2239 Total Votes)

The economy will be booming over the next 12 months. (187) 8% The economy will grow moderately over the next 12 months. (750) 33% Economic growth will be close to zero over the next 12 months. (395) 18% A mild recession is likely within 12 months. (455) 20% A severe recession is likely within 12 months. (452) 20%

(6) Forecast the change in uemployment over the next 12 months (1954 Total Votes):

Increase (1293) 66% Decrease (326) 17% Unchanged (335) 17% (7) Forecast the CPI inflation rate over the next 12 months (2134 Total Votes)

It will be higher. (950) 45% It will be lower. (197) 9% It will be the same as now. (413) 19% It will be close to zero. (161) 8% Deflation is likely. Prices will be falling. (413) 19% ...

SB CONSULTING

http://www.sbconsulting.com

Question: When will your organization be Y2K Compliant?

DATE: May 24, 1999 11:50 AM EST

Already compliant: 44.44%

Don't know: 33.33%

By Jul 99: 22.22%

By Jan 99: 0.00%

By Dec 99: 0.00%

...

Y2K UPDATE REPORT COMMUNITY POLL

http://www.y2kupdatereport.com/#poll

Question: What are you planning to do in your community to prepare for Y2K?

Results Date: May 24, 1999 11:54 AM EST

Nada. I'm on vacation that week. (243) 19% Set up a fortress in my house. (313) 24% Work with my community in a practical manner. (407) 31% Head for the Hills. (174) 13% Form my own community action group/plan/committee. (161) 12%

VARIOUS PAST POLLS ON THE WEB

CNNFN POLL

http://cgi.cnnfn.com/cgi-bin/poll_new/gen_poll.cgi/analyze_me?hiddenPo llName=Y2KFears128&userEmail=&submitButton=Finished+-+Submit+survey

DATE: NOT GIVEN

Question: A global economic collapse? A worldwide technological blackout? Or will the biggest problem caused by the Millennium Bug be the inability to tape the Rose Bowl? Of all the predictions of Y2K-related mayhem, which of the following do you think are likely to occur?

1. Air traffic control systems will fail and planes will fall from the sky.

total responses to this question: 14628

No 89.49% Yes 10.51%

2. Prison cell doors will swing open.

total responses to this question: 14584

No 93.10% Yes 6.90%

3. ATMs will not accept deposits, or dispense cash.

total responses to this question: 14574

No 59.76% Yes 40.24%

4. The Internet will crash, along with telephone systems.

total responses to this question: 14574

No 75.72% Yes 24.28%

5. Computerized shipments of goods, such as food to grocery stores or medicines to hospitals and pharmacies, will be delayed. total responses to this question: 14614

Yes 60.74% No 39.26%

6. Government checks such as Social Security or military pensions will be delayed. total responses to this question: 14573

No 54.18% Yes 45.82%

7. Millions of older PCs, at schools, in small business and in homes will cease to function. total responses to this question: 14608

Yes 53.63% No 46.37%

8. VCR programming will not work.

total responses to this question: 14505

No 59.44% Yes 40.56%

9. Finally, the so-called "Y2K crisis" or "The Millennium Bug" will be:

total responses to this question: 14624

The biggest non-event of the year 68.62% The biggest event of the year 31.38%

...

ZDDN 1998 Y2K POLL

http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/stories/zdnn_smgraph_display/1,4436,2146228, 00.html

DATE: October 7, 1998

84% expressed a partial or complete understanding of Y2K problems.

61% expect serious problems for themselves and their families.

80% plan to stockpile food, fuel, batteries, and candles.

60% are considering avoid air travel and withdrawing money from the banks.

25% are considering withdrawing all their money from banks.

75% reported that their companies were doing something about Y2K.

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), May 24, 1999.

Old Git has nailed it. In polling, you get what you pay for. As only one of thousands of examples (I could write a book), let's say you usually have about $1000 in the bank and you plan to withdraw $100 of it.

Now, the pollster could ask, "Do you plan to withdraw cash before rollover?" Your answer is yes.

Alternatively, the pollster could ask "Do you plan to leave money in the bank?" Your answer is also yes.

If Andy were funding this survey, which question do you suppose you'd be asked? If Stephen Poole were funding it, which question would you expect?

So Andy's results are: 90% plan to take their money out of the bank! Poole's results are: 90% plan to leave their money in the bank!

NOTE that both results are correct! At which point Andy and Poole could beat one another over the head with 'conflicting facts.' And the rest of us, not knowing exactly what was asked, must decide who's 'telling the truth' and who's 'lying.'

This is simply a microcosm of the information we read, not necessarily applying to polls at all. These stories depend on the source of the information, the questions the reporter asked, the answers the reporter chose to present, and so on.

So the ATM company's survey shows people are deciding it's no big deal after all, while y2kNewsWire's survey shows exactly the opposite! Imagine that. Anyone who dismisses one result and accepts the other is simply pulling a Milne -- seeing what they choose to see and blinding themselves to what they don't like. But when you get right down to it, that's basically how we all operate.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 24, 1999.

Exactly! Polls mean nothing.

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), May 24, 1999.

Gilda:

Polls don't mean nothing. They have a useful positive feedback effect, they can swing elections, they can even (properly done) elicit useful information.

Also you missed this part that I wrote:

"This is simply a microcosm of the information we read, not necessarily applying to polls at all."

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 24, 1999.

If this poll is true, it's especially good news for Norm. He won't need to post here anymore. :-)

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), May 24, 1999.

Only isolated, aand local. Or, is that loco?

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), May 24, 1999.