On Friday (5/21) Ron Blue (never heard of him)spoke on Dobsons "Focus on the Family". This program reaches millions if not tens of millions of people. I respect and enjoy Dobson very much. He had Michael Hyatt on last fall. Mr. Blue said the follwing typical lines:

"All the business men I talk to say they're OK --- they worry about their suppliers"

"Even thou the DOD has big problems, I have to trust they are working on it energetically and will be fine."

"Overseas will have trouble, including banks, but ours have no problem --- just in case they'll have extra staff on duty 12/31/99-pm."

"It would be OK to store food for an extra day or two just in case."

Not exact quotes, but accurate in content.

The point: several million people have again been told not to prepare. People really LISTEN and pay attention to Dobsons program, and will now bwe convinced "I didn't have to worry after all." This will counter any awareness raised by 60 Mins - Dobson has at least twice as many listeners, and they will act on what they hear.

So its depressing, but I'm still preparing.

Can be heard at Broadcast.com or FOF.ORG on RealAudio.

PS --- no facts were given, just "I'm assured it'll be ok."

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), May 22, 1999

Answers

Jesus answered: "Watch out that no one [like Dobson, Falwell, Hewitt, or Poole] deceives you. For many will come in my name, claiming I am the Christ, and will deceive many [about Y2K]" (Matt. 24:4-5).

-- White Horse (first@seal.rev), May 22, 1999.

Ignore this troll named White Horse.

-- I'm Anomonous Too (NotAReal@email.address), May 22, 1999.

ignoring the whitehorse troll (who is quoting Scripture completely out of context, btw), I wouldn't worry too much yet Jon - Dobson did two series of programs (one in October and the Other in Februrary which *did* document the significant problems we face). I've used those tapes extensively with conservative Christians as motivational tools to get them to prepare...said tapes having been loaned and reloaned and re-re-loaned...one nonfactual presentation by Ron Blue isn't going to counteract all of that.

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 22, 1999.

I, too, heard the program yesterday (was told by my doubting husband that the program was on) and wasn't surprised by Blue's assessment of the situation. I've seen a video put out in January by D. James Kennedy's ministry and out of all of the 'guest speakers', including Hyatt, de Jaeger, Steve Hewitt, Larry Burkett, etc, Blue was very, very low key and basically pooh-poohed the whole idea that something may go wrong.

I will be more interested to hear the up-date broadcast that Focus on the Family will air in November.

I told my husband that the broadcast didn't change my outlook in the least. (I'm already at the 3 month mark in my "hoarding"-ooh, how I hate that word!) Gratefully, DH and I have agreed to disagree about the y2k scenario. He trusts me spend his hard-earned money anyway I see fit and because of that trust, I am really careful to get the most bang for my buck. It's a good compromise.

Still prepping, Linda

-- newbiebutnodummy (Linda@home.com), May 22, 1999.

You know, I must be slow or something ... or maybe I just didn't want to believe what I was seeing here.

You think that people NEED to be frightened, or they won't prepare, is that it? THAT'S why anyone who posts good news here is immediately attacked; you're don't WANT people to think things are getting better, because you're afraid they'll stop preparing for the worst.

Silly me. I could NOT for the life of me figure out why I was being accused of trying to get people "not to prepare" -- especially given that I've clearly said (especially at my Web site) that EVERYONE should make common-sense preparations for emergencies (and shouldn't have waited for Y2K to do it). I've been a "be prepared" guy for YEARS.

But now I understand. You WANT people to remain frightened. Admit it.

Fine; let me give you some objective advice. IT WON'T WORK. Fear is a transient thing. It will either grow into full-blown panic (which NO ONE wants, not even you), or the people WILL get burnt out. That's just human nature.

I hate to tell you this, but most Americans aren't going to listen when you start talking about a year's worth of supplies (and ESPECIALLY not if you talk about selling houses and moving into the woods). They'll tune you out as a nut to start with.

You need to make your argument rationally. Carefully and politely explain WHY you think they should set aside a REASONABLE amount of food, water, medicine and other supplies.

Some of you here have done that here, and that's to your credit. But just as many others think that they're somehow helping their argument by attacking and calling people like me names, and telling me that "I want people to die!" and other such stuff.

The average person -- who has more common sense than you think -- sees that and thinks, "sheesh, these people are NUTS."

(Common sense tells them that, if multi-state flooding, category 5 hurricanes, world wars and other calamities can't destroy society, a computer bug probably won't have a much better chance of doing it. THAT is the mentality that you need to address.)

You need a new approach. That's a little objective advice for you.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 22, 1999.

Dobson is in general, clueless. Its nice to see he finally did something right for a change.

-- (psychobabblers@FOTF.tobad), May 22, 1999.

Arlin,

Not to be the sceptic, but could he be backpedaling?

I'm not familiar with the guy, but I'm concerned about prominent media figures who may be presured to report a dictated view of Y2K.

That is not reporting. I'll leave that judgment to you, I just don't know the man.

Poole,

Arlin does not want to scare people into preparing. It seems though you have a challenge, in that you personify or your contrary belief of fear mongering, on your opponents, to a different extreme.

Would you call recommending Ed Yardini a scare tactic?

Those with compassion are those who have a care to see that through any challenge their community faces they see it prepared rather than with their pants down. (Visualize that just for fun.)

Father

-- Thomas G. Hale (hale.t@att.net), May 22, 1999.

Mr. Poole:

Either you misunderstood me or you are as big a jerk as people have been trying to tell me. No one here wants to motivate people by "fear", as you use that term. I was pointing out that once again, millions of people who can't get a lot of information are told by what they see as a reliable source that "its all over" --- Y2K is solved so forget it.

I don't believe thats true. And there isn't any "news" in a lot of polyanna type broadcasts, just "I'm sure everything will be fine".

There has been some good news (even by you or Norm) but most articles/interviews are sadly lacking any depth.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), May 22, 1999.

Ya know Jon, I am SOOOOO reassured that banks will have extra staff on duty :) Yep, thye'l be able to get broken code cranking in no time. You know, those minimum wage tellers that understand Assembler and Cobol.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 22, 1999.

Thomas,

When someone posts good news about Y2K in this forum (or challenges the bad news), the most common objection is "you don't want people to prepare." BigDog has as much as stated this to me.

Look at Robin Messing's post, "Calling out Cornell Dave." The VERY FIRST response was, "state whether you're preparing."

For many of the people here, that is the litmus test for one's position: either you believe in heavy preparations, or you're a Polly Troll who Doesn't Get It.

From that, it only logically follows: if I do or say ANYTHING that would discourage anyone from preparing, I am a Dangerous Man.

Beware: this fellow doesn't believe as we do. He is A Threat.

I'm sure you'd like to believe what you've asserted, but ... well, read what your friends are actually saying here. :)

It's painfully obvious: if I do or say anything that dissuades someone from buying a years' worth of beans and wheat -- even though, by any rational measure, and in any other time, any reasonable person would consider this a GROSS overreaction -- I am Evil.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 22, 1999.

Jon,

I wasn't necessarily responding directly to you. I was speaking in general.

But since you asked, let me ask you: what type of "facts" would satisfy you? Let me warn you to start with: I DON'T play the compliance numbers game. Never have, never will, because it is virtually USELESS in determining whether (and in particular, what type of) failures will occur.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 22, 1999.

Ron Blue is the managing partner of a financial advisory firm. Ron and his wife, Judy Blue actually have a book published by Focus on the Family Publishing, called "A Woman's Guide to Financial Peace of Mind". Ron has also written "Mastering Your Money" and "The Debt Squeeze". He speaks regularly on the Focus on the Family radio program, & probably is Dr. Dobson's favorite financial expert. He is held in much esteem by regular listeners. It is unfortunate that James Dobson allows him to minimize the dangers of Y2K.

-- Wallflower (y2kwallflr@aol.com), May 22, 1999.

Stephen,

on the off chance that I was one of the 'you' addressed by your first post in this thread: y2k preparation is not bipolar - i.e. it isn't either somnolance or panic. At no time have I suggested that panicking anyone was a good thing. Raising people's awareness and educating them to the serious nature of y2k related issues, is, however a good thing. Had you ever listened to either of the first two Dobson series on Y2K you would realize that they were intentionally structured to do just that...which is why I used them.

Y2K is a problem that has the potential to cause serious disruptions and must be prepared for in a serious manner. It is very difficult to get most people to take anything seriously today. It is exactly because of the misperceptions you call the results of common sense, to whit:

["if multi-state flooding, category 5 hurricanes, world wars and other calamities can't destroy society, a computer bug probably won't have a much better chance of doing it. THAT is the mentality that you need to address"]

let's unpack this and see just how many ways you are wrong here:

1. In *all* severe hurricanes and floods, property is damaged, peoples livelihoods are destroyed and innocent people die. In those situations where there are insufficient resources to rescue and rebuild, people continue to die for a very long time afterwards, while it takes years, or even decades to rebuild a shattered society. If you doubt this - look at the third world countries which were hit by hurricanes last year - look at their casualty rates and look at how many people are still living (and dying) on the far side of poverty. In order to be truthful, this part of your statement should have been "Because of the wealth of North America and Western Europe, Americans and Western Europeans have generally been able to recover from major natural disasters, primarily due to the relatively isolated nature of those disasters, and the wide variety of assets donated from unaffected areas. Since most American and Western European news media have downplayed or totally avoided any real explanation of the systemic nature of y2k effects, Americans and Western Europeans are also unaware that y2k will not cause merely a few short, discrete, and widely seperated problems which can be fixed by resources sent from elsewhere. Rather there is every reason to believe that resources will be initially scarce, as overlapping and cascading problems and effects of problems must be dealt with simultaneosly in a wide variety of settings and geographic locations.

2. World War I and World War II did in fact both destroy entire societies and cultures...ask anyone who lost relatives in the Holocaust, or ask anyone whose relatives were living in Central Europe prior to either World War. Ask the indigenous peoples of the southern Pacific, and South East Asia. What this part of your statement should have said was "Americans, having little or no sense of historical events such as world wars, are by and large ignorant of the level of disruption that humans are capable of wreaking upon each other. Many Americans, and other westerners, therefore assume that such disruptions cannot occur in any environment of which they are a part.

No Stephen, *we* are not trying to scare anyone. We are merely seeking to provide education and information which will allow people to prepare effectively for the potential issues ahead. If there is one factor which may cause major chaos next January, it will be all of the people who have believed the exact pollyanna line of 'ignorance is bliss, trust your prejudices not the facts' which you have espoused in your post.

May God have mercy on you for the consequences of your actions.

Arlin Adams

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 22, 1999.

Hi Thomas,

it's always possible that someone could be pressured, but with Dobson it would be very difficult to do so. His foundation is independent and his finances are squeaky clean. He tends to research a position and stick with it until hard evidence shows him otherwise. If anything he may have let Ron Blue on just to provide a counterpoint with which to compare the earlier broadcasts...as was noted, Mr. Blue cited no facts to speak of, merely his opinions.

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 22, 1999.

"It is unfortunate that James Dobson allows him to minimize the dangers of Y2K. "

You must have meant 'fortunate', since dobson screwed up so bad end of last year with his nonsense. he must have realized what he did and is trying to make amends. no reason to spread fear needlessly. in his case it would probably hurt financial donations. can't have that

-- (psychobabblers@FOTF.tobad), May 22, 1999.

My two cents worth.

I just finished listening to the Dobson show via RealAudio. The first thought I had was Drew's statement that his opinion and conclusions on Y2K were more valid that Poole's since he had so many vital contacts. I tried to point out that we were probably equal in that area, to which Drew disagreed. Ron Blue makes most of his statement of calm on the Dobson show based on WHO he is and to the credit of HIS many contacts. What does Drew say to this? Does he also think that HIS contacts with CBN is greater than that of Christian Computing and Ron Blue's ministry combined? Probably not important, huh. Just a thought.

Also, did anyone notice that Dr. Falwell's press release by me came the SAME day as this broadcast by Focus?

One more note. The question of "fear" and preparing came up again. While I do not know if anyone in this thread is actually guilty (since most of you don't have the guts to even list your real names). If you want to know WHY I campaign for the bump in the road scenario, it is because (1) I actually believe it, and (2) I know of many that HAVE purposely used FEAR to hype Y2K to encourage people to over-prepare. WHY, because of money (I still estimate the Y2K FEAR business to run around 50 billion.)

Now, IF you are not guilty of this, then don't worry. It amazes me that you will attack me and others like Poole because you think we are against you preparing. Go ahead, prepare all you like. When I was still a pastor, I always lead the churches where I served in disaster relief programs so that we could be prepared for "real" potential disaster. However, I work against those that are using this to purposely instill fear while with the other hand, sell Y2K junk to make a fortune.

Final note, I actually wish to thank a few that rebuked me for my strong reaction to the White Horse fella. You were probably right. I over-reacted. I get a little thin skinned once in a while, and that WAS the first time someone ever equated me with being a false prophet working for the Anti-Christ (grin)...

-- Steve Hewitt (steve@ccmag.com), May 23, 1999.

Steve,

Let's pick this up again in January when we will see Truth and Consequences. This sort of crap sounds to me like arguing about what the weather will be like and what it will affect seven months from now. We all have better things to do than sit in front of a computer monitor and engage in dueling speculations! Prepare as you see fit! Consider it just another type of insurance for Pete's sake!

-- Jeremiah Jetson (laterthan@uthink.y2k), May 23, 1999.

Arlin,

Y2K is a problem that has the potential to cause serious disruptions and must be prepared for in a serious manner.

The potential, yes. But Arlin, in my opinion, you're making the wrong kinds of preparations. The primary impact of Y2K is going to be economic in nature: some companies may fail, others will grow, there may be liquidity problems, unemployment is a wildcard, etc.

This is actually what the people in Washington are worried about. Sure, you'll find a few clueless wonders who believe that embedded systems could dump propane and blow up a large city, but most of them (of those who care, that is) are concerned about THE ECONOMY.

Now you can see what Steve Hewitt is talking about. Some people are pulling money out of retirement accounts or blowing their savings to buy wheat and generators. When they reach 65 or when it's time to ship the kids off to college, that money won't be there.

May God have mercy on you for the consequences of your actions.

Well, if we're pointing fingers, may God have mercy on you, who claim to be a minister of the Gospel, for teaching people to rely on the works of their own hands instead of relying totally on God's constant and sufficient provision.

Ok, we could have a fine little theological argument at this point; you'd quote Proverbs back at me about the "wise man preparing," and I'd come back with something else ... but what say we don't, just for the sake of those here who aren't Believers?

For God to have that mercy on me, you would have to be right. I don't think you are, because in the final analysis, you're no different from any other Doomer with whom I've corresponded about this.

You place FAR too much importance on the role of computers, and grant people FAR too little credit for their ability to work around the blasted things when they fail (which they already do, on a daily basis) ... especially given that, in this case, they've been forewarned, and will be WATCHING for the problems.

I daresay that there will be very few critical systems which aren't being closely monitored over New Year's. I know that I'll be on the job, and so will a lot of other people. We'll be there just so you WON'T have to do without power, or water, or information (radio, in my case).

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 23, 1999.

Steve,

Yes, you have to develop a thick skin to stay in this debate. I've been called names that I had to find the definition for, just so I could know whether to be offended. :)

(My particular pet peeve is when Doomers act as though they have the moral high ground. GMAB.)

Look for more people to change their minds in the future. I'm still keeping an eye on Hyatt, myself.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 23, 1999.

You are a dangerous know-nothing poole. You're web site is a disgrace. You will cost lives if things are a 6/7 plus. You are such an egocentric zealot that this doesn't bother you.

Some Christian.

Sleep well.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 23, 1999.

Point to remember folks:

"Anyone who say they KNOW what will happen at Y2K is either LYING or MISINFORMED."

ANYBODY.

ANY of you who say "it's going to be "this"...." or "it's going to be "that"..." NONE OF YOU *KNOW* A GODDAMNED THING. YOU ARE *ALL* OFFERING *OPINIONS*.

So PLEASE don't attempt self-aggrandizement by way of "expert" prognostications. NONE of you, COLLECTIVELY, have opinions worth a pitcher of warm spit.

Please try to keep that in mind....

223 days remain. About 5300 hours. Get ready. Prepare. Something's going to happen....

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), May 23, 1999.

111 working days, give or take...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 23, 1999.

111

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 23, 1999.

Under normal circumstances it would be 111 working days, but I guess you missed all the stories of remediation teams that worked Thanksgiving weekend last year. Been so long I deleted the links...silly me. Forgot there would be people like Andy still lingering around.

-- So glad you live in your own little world (111days@sure.yep.com), May 23, 1999.

Hey brainfade they don't celebrate thanksgiving in Cape Town or Sydney or Reykjavik or London or Paris or Tokyo or Hong Kong or Moscow or Buenos Aires or most of the world, ACTUALLY.

WHAT a maroon you are.

Small mind, just my back door....... I'm alright Jack...

that's three posts now with three crappy handles...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 23, 1999.

This is the May 25th Senate testimony link...

http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/hearings/052599/index.html

Check out the number of days the Senate think are left for to fix everything worldwide...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 23, 1999.

<,Hey brainfade they don't celebrate thanksgiving in Cape Town or Sydney or Reykjavik or London or Paris or Tokyo or Hong Kong or Moscow or Buenos Aires or most of the world, ACTUALLY. >>

Nope they sure don't...what I said is called "an example". Can you say "example"? Somehow I doubt you can.

<>

And the pot calls the kettle black once again

Must be nice to live in a black and white world where youa re always correct. When you decide to joint he rest of us int he world of reality let me know

-- So glad you live in your own little world (111days@sure.yep.com), May 23, 1999.

We'll be there just so you WON'T have to do without power, or water, or information (radio, in my case).

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET

So share with me, Stephen, what exactly is your fall back in the unlikely event you are wrong?

Regards,

Will

-- Will Huett (willhuett@usa.net), May 23, 1999.