More happy news. One of these days I will get hyped and provide Gifs of the charts

GAO United States General Accounting Office Report to the Special Committee
on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, U. S. Senate May 1999

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/ai99162.pdf

YEAR 2000 COMPUTING CRISIS
 

In February 1999, following an industrywide survey, the nation's oil and
gas industries reported that, on average, they were 40 percent finished
validating their embedded systems. However, over a quarter of the oil and
gas industries reported that they did not expect to be Year 2000 ready until
the second half of 1999 leaving little time for resolving unexpected
problems.

Snip

While individual domestic companies reported that they are developing
Year 2000 contingency plans, there are no plans to perform a national-level
risk assessment and develop contingency plans to deal with potential
shortages or disruptions in the nation's overall oil and gas supply.

Snip

Oil and Gas Industries Are Vulnerable to Year
2000 Failures
 

The oil and gas industries are dependent on computer control systems and
embedded systems that are susceptible to Year 2000 failures. The
industries' analysis has shown that Year 2000 failures can occur at many
links in the chain of oil and gas operations. The oil and gas industries rely
on computer monitoring and control systems, including supervisory
control and data acquisition systems (SCADA) and embedded devices.
SCADA systems monitor and control remote terminal units and equipment
that may also have date-sensitive embedded systems.
 

Virtually all of the SCADA systems and many of the devices use embedded
microprocessors and systems that may have, or are known to have, Year
2000 problems. All phases of the petroleum production cycle--oil and gas
extraction, refining, transportation, and delivery--use control systems and
equipment that are subject to Year 2000 failures.

Snip

Year 2000 Vulnerability
Year 2000 failures can occur at many
links in the chain of oil and gas
operations.
 

The oil and gas industries are dependent on control and embedded
systems that are subject to Year 2000 failures. These systems include the
 

° Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA), and
 

° embedded devices
These systems are present in all phases of the petroleum production
cycle--oil and gas extraction, refining, transportation, and delivery.
 

Control Center for Offshore Oil Platform Monitoring and Control
 

Year 2000 Vulnerability (continued) SCADA systems monitor and control
remote terminal units and equipment that may also have date-sensitive
embedded systems.
 

Remote terminal units monitor and control a range of equipment, including
motorized valves, switches, and other elements of oil and gas production.
 

Remote Terminal Unit Controlling Motorized Gas Valve 
 

Embedded systems are also found in equipment throughout the extraction,
refining, transportation, and delivery operations.
 

Embedded system containing "real-time clocks" may malfunction or
cause equipment failures.
 

Computer-controlled Motorized Gas Valve

Because over half of our oil is imported, the nation's oil industry is also
vulnerable to Year 2000 risks in the production and transportation
operations of other countries.
 

Imported oil is transported by pipelines and marine tankers. Modern
tankers are heavily dependent on embedded systems for navigation and
cargo management, which are subject to Year 2000 failures.

Snip

Year 2000 Readiness -Estimated Dates of Readiness

Oil and gas industry surveys show that 72 percent of reporting
companies expected to have their embedded systems Year 2000
ready in the 2nd quarter and 94 percent in the 3rd quarter of 1999.

Snip

The APGA survey stated that 37 percent of the publicly owned
distributors did not provide an expected readiness date for embedded systems and only 23 percent of the respondents expected
to be ready in September 1999.

(APGA -publicly owned natural gas distribution companies.)

-- Brian (imager@home.com), May 21, 1999

Answers

"...no plans to perform a national-level risk assessment and develop contingency plans to deal with potential shortages or disruptions in the nation's overall oil and gas supply."

*Sigh*

Somebody, better plan something... nationally and internationally.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), May 21, 1999.

Brian,

This report sounds ominously similar to the recent US Commerce Dept. report on everything from telecom,shipping,metals,IPOs, Health, but specifically Oil. Two of the countries that we export the majority of our oil from (Saudi Arabia,Venezuela) are at the bottom of the list of prepared countries on everyones list from the gartner group to Sen.Bennet and Dodd. An exercise I would recommend to anyone is to just make a phone call to Venezuela and listen to the quality of the call and then draw the parallels with your imagination. Very troubling!!

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), May 21, 1999.

"...no plans to perform a national-level risk assessment and develop contingency plans to deal with potential shortages or disruptions in the nation's overall oil and gas supply."

Central planning, isn't that what screwed up the USSR?

Just as well, central planning is worthless in a messy and complicated place like the USA. Even Napoleon didnt do it. His various armies each had its own logistics and support units.

-- hunchback (quasimodo@belltower.com), May 21, 1999.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve in USA has currently 563 million bbl of crude oil. We use about 15 million bbl of oil per day. The SPR can draw down crude at the rate of about 4-5 million bbl per day.

Problems?

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), May 21, 1999.

No,No problem! Drawing down our strategic reserves can be done very systematically through all of the normal distribution chains that we are currently using--- pipelines,jobbers,pricing,trucking Service stations etc. Not to mention how effortless and streamlined it would all be!!! Much like all the cheese the government has stored up in warehouses. So now we'll all have lots to eat and plenty of fuel. Problem? No-- no--problem!!

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), May 21, 1999.

I have read that 80% of homes in the US are heated by natural gas. Information on the state of the industry has been difficult to find. Thanks Brian.

Snip

The APGA survey stated that 37 percent of the publicly owned distributors did not provide an expected readiness date for embedded systems and only 23 percent of the respondents expected to be ready in September 1999.

(APGA -publicly owned natural gas distribution companies.)

I am not betting the life of family members in the coldest months on the ability of the natural gas industry to pull this one off. A problem far away can make a cold cold home.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), May 21, 1999.

Something has been troubling me about those oil "reserves" we are told are waiting for us. They are stored in underground caves, salt mines, and such. They know how much they put down there. Do they know how much they can retrieve? I mean, it's not like that stuff is sitting in huge metal tanks. And as they pump it out, how does it get to the refineries? Are there pipelines in place to move it quickly to the refineries? Can't be true. Refineries are all over the place, but the underground oil storage is only in a couple of spots. So do they truck it to refineries? And if they are taking it back out of the storage "holes" then it would mean we are involved in an import shortfall situation. Not enough oil to "go around" to all who want it. So who gets first grabs on the stored stuff? Can we say military? So why should I feel comfy about that storage news? None of that whole business makes much sense to me, other than it's great PR.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), May 22, 1999.

Mike

Yes Natural gas seems to be at risk and not a known industry amoung most. The % of homes heated is alot less than 80% but it is significant. I think around a third or more, it would not be hard to find out. I will look into the matter a bit more. In Canada they count on gas to heat and create power. Not good in the winter to find out there is no gas coming in.

As a Canadian I have not much interest in the US oil situation but the reserved oil is about 2 years at 2 million barrels a day for uses guys.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), May 22, 1999.

Gordon,

>Something has been troubling me about those oil "reserves" we are told are waiting for us.

First, let's not confuse oil "reserves" (lowercase generic term) with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The generic term "reserves" refers to oil that is still in its original natural reservoirs, not yet piped out, and usually means one of various types of estimate of the amount of oil remaining in those reservoirs.

I used to have precise definitions of "proved reserves", "probable reserves", and so forth, but can't find them right now.

E.g., one type of "reserves" estimate is the amount of oil that is recoverable with present technology and prices. (I think this is usually called "proved".) Why prices? Because if it costs more to get the oil out of the ground than it can be sold for, you're going to have a hard time finding a company willing to consistently lose money by doing so. Not all oil is as inexpensive to produce as it is in the Persian Gulf, where it is just a few hundred meters below the surface. So when prices rise, this type of "reserves" estimate rises, and when they fall, it falls.

This estimate is based on actually-discovered reservoirs. Also, improvements in the technology for producing oil can make it feasible to produce it from reservoirs where it was formerly known to be, but infeasible to recover.

Another type of "reserves" estimate is the amount that includes a guess as to what oil reservoirs might be discovered in the future. (This might be called "potential reserves", but I'm not sure.) This "reserves" figure will, of course, always be larger than the preceding "reserves" figure, because it has a more-inclusive basis.

>They are stored in underground caves, salt mines, and such. They know how much they put down there.

Now, apparently, you're referring to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This is not at all the same as the generic lowercase "reserves".

>They know how much they put down there. Do they know how much they can retrieve? I mean, it's not like that stuff is sitting in huge metal tanks.

It's sitting in underground rock formations surrounded by relatively impermeable rock, so that the amount that would be seeping out is negligible.

>And as they pump it out, how does it get to the refineries? Are there pipelines in place to move it quickly to the refineries? Can't be true.

Actually, since the oil arrived there via pipeline in the first place, yes, there are pipelines in place. The pipeline network includes many connections and valves by which the flow may be routed as desired.

However, I read several years ago that there were not yet any pumps in place for extracting the oil from the SPR. I presume and hope that such pumps have been installed since then, but do not know that for sure.

>Refineries are all over the place, but the underground oil storage is only in a couple of spots. So do they truck it to refineries?

No, no, it's much more efficient to move it through pipelines. I think there are more than a million miles of pipeline in the U.S. -- don't know how much of that is devoted to crude oil.

-- No Spam Please (No_Spam_Please@anon_ymous.com), May 23, 1999.

No Spam,

Thanks for the clarification. Yes, I was trying to talk about the SPR. My point on how much is recoverable is basically a question of how much will be able to be pumped back out, given the the probable many pockets and side pools it will be laying in. Even if they can eventually get 90% of it back out, it won't be in the large quantities per day that we would need. It could certainly fuel the military needs, but how much else will be fueled by this slow process of recovery and refining? That's my major concern. Will it do the common public any real good?

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), May 23, 1999.

Gordon - you are correct in your assumptions and questions about the Stategic reserves (captial letters) - recovery equipment (pumps, power supplies, transition tanks, pipelins, and processing facilities that can "pump down" are not the same as can "pump out" - similar, of course, but not the same.

These reserves are not neglible, they are very large, but htey will not suffice for any length of time. Also, consider that they are deliberately strategic in nature - not large enough to take care of commercial needs, but enough to support military needs for a while. The recovery effort needs to include "cracking (refining)" and cleaning, processing to lube oil, diesel oil, gasoline, jet fuel, etc.

The oil stored in raw crude, not refined products, and so cannot be immediately used anyway without the full infrastructure that would refine LA, CA, OK, or TX crude oil anyway. At best, the reserves could delay the impact of losing overseas sources for a while, at the cost of then having nothing to supply military needs that might be much more urgent - after all, when do attack somebody's allies? When he has existing oil supplies and and is trying to stretch existing reserves; or when he has run out of existing easy-to-get supplies and has no available reserves?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), May 23, 1999.