The hills are alive, not with the sound of music, but with the anticipated sound of the upcoming Sunday nights "60 Minutes."

In one of my previous posts I suggested that the national desire to prepare would slowly accelerate as the year unfolds with virtually everyone by the end of the year engaging in some level of preparation. I further suggested that if my contention turns out to be accurate then it would precipitate a response from those in "authority" to take measures to protect us from ourselves. I termed these overall phenomena "the hedging of our respective bets." As 1999 passes, we shall certainly see.

Regardless of the content or the "angle" played, I do not believe that an airing of "Y2K perspectives" by 60 minutes will produce much in the way of a measurable public response. The quietly increasing levels of preparedness will continue with perhaps only a modest increase in the rate. Certainly nothing of note - nothing to suggest that we shall, in a wave of national discovery and concern, collectively now respond to what most of us, if not all of us, are certainly already aware.

It is likely that somewhere along the 1999 time line of slowly increasing levels of preparedness, perhaps in the fall when Labor Day has passed, when the kids have returned to school, as the amount of daily sunshine is growing noticeably shorter, with the first morning chill of the coming winter in the air, then it will dawn on a significant number of people that time is growing short.

Perhaps not. Perhaps awareness of a need to act will occur with the quiet, though emotionally deafening "crash" of billions of dollars of investment capital trying to find a safe and secure home, after the collective realization that the current version of the 16th century "Dutch tulip mania" has about run its course. Perhaps it will be neither. Perhaps all is indeed well. Perhaps it is we, with the discovery that there was after all, nothing to prepare for, it will be we who will "crash" with the realization that we "did not get it." I don't believe so, but it is indeed a possibility.

I conclude with the following advice. Use your own judgment, accept the responsibility for it, and whether "proven" right or wrong, enjoy the freedom to do so. It is a wonderful life, a great place to live, but as I have said previously, it is a time for many reasons, to keep your powder dry.

-- Dave Walden (wprop@concentric.net), May 21, 1999

Answers

David,

Good reading, could not agree more. Its interesting that the "Drudge Report" on the "60 minutes" story was actually condescending towards the "60 minutes story" saying it was typical SHOCK TV. Amazing! When will the masses react, is the question. I think that the 60 minutes story will have an effect, even if subconscious only. Wait until the stock market drops a little more and a couple more main Stream news stories i.e. dateline 20/20 etc. start to question it a little more thorougly. Then the panic--could--(god I hate that word) begin.

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), May 21, 1999.

If nothing else, 60 Minutes may be another way to help the NGIs that we know become GIs... One more "authoritative source" (to them) to cite. (Personally, I've considered Ed Yourdon authoritative for the past 15-20 years...)

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), May 21, 1999.

Greetings Dave,

Agree with your overall outlook concerning what the response may be. Sincerely hope that this will wake up everyone else to at least some degree. I would like to add also that here lately I've been approached by more of my co-workers and friends with questions about the possible problems brought on by Y2K. Maybe it's finally sinking in.

In the mean time I try to drop hints about certain programs and information that's availiable. However, living outside of a small town (pop.4000)here in the hills of north Ga., where most folks are intimidated by computers, it's hard to get to folks. Alas, you can only do so much. Take care and God bless.

-- SEMPER FI (etl@stc.net), May 22, 1999.

I read in The Washington Post this morning that the 60 Minutes piece will look at Montgomery County, MD (One of the best prepared suburban counties) and Washington, DC (one of the least prepared large cities). It should provide a good perspective of the overall situation at the urban community level.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), May 22, 1999.

This response is for Buddy:

That's very good news IMHO. I had received an E-mail from a friend who stated that the coverage was expected to be VERY pessimistic. I responded "How could it be otherwise? They're using the last-minute project from hell (D.C.) as the only source. I would really prefer that they had someone from a successful city project engage in the discussion also." I'm glad to hear that they will do so. I have always purported that it's very easy to extrapolate on the progress of one city to the progress of others but that it's incorrect to do so. Y2k is not "one size fits all."

Thanks for the update.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 22, 1999.

And if you are in the Seattle area, KOMO 4 Town Meeting on Sunday night at 6:00pm will have another hour devoted to Y2K - Ed was on the program a couple months ago. Think this is a new hour - it will be the third so far this year.

-- Valkyrie (anon@please.net), May 22, 1999.