Hi:

I've been off the web a little while. After a number of confessions from the perspective at a University (that's a hint to my previous alias), I now realize that many more people were watching my posts than I could have imagined. I now fully understand why you guys don't give details of what's happening at your companies. Enough said on that. My pseudonym has now changed to "Dave" from one that included evidence of my University affiliation. (Not that this makes me any more hidden, but it may keep me out of trouble a little better.) I'm guessing that these postings on this site are being quietly monitored by some very curious organizations.

To the point. I now realize why I find myself rooting for serious problems in the market. It's not the greed of being out of the market (at least not totally). After following previous postings on the frustration of trying to convince your neighbors to plan, I realize that, to me, Wall St. respresents the collective wisdom of millions of seemingly intelligent people failing to perceive the problem and failing to plan.

Dave

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), May 21, 1999

Answers

It doesn't matter Dave. We can't all plan. 24% of those polled say that they probably will buy wood stoves. Yeah, right. There aren't 50 million stoves out there to be bought. Probably not even 5% of that number.

We'd like to save our fellow countrymen. Thanks to a late start and a disingenuous government, it's too late except for contingency planning. Maybe we'll have a mild winter. That'd help.

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), May 21, 1999.

Screw Wall Street, and your money! When the sleepeles wake up, it will do none of us any good!

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), May 21, 1999.

Welcome back, "Dave"! There have probably been many reincarnations on this forum.

I got out of the market at the beginning of the year. I have never been one to see the writing on the wall ahead of the financial geniuses, so when it became very clear to me the market was about to hit trouble, I scooted. What is still "very clear" to me is being entirely ignored by Wall Street. I don't regret my decision (I am sleeping far better at night, and I still expect a major downswing in the Dow by early next year), but the disconnect truly baffles me!

With all the global and national instability, I question whether a Y2K impact on Wall Street would translate to greater preparations, since the connection might not be obvious. Also, it would need to happen soon enough this year for people to have time to prepare. On the other hand, it is difficult to get people's attention on Y2K with the Dow reaching for the ozone layer, especially where the most likely Y2K impact will be economic.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), May 21, 1999.

Dave,

"Wall St. respresents the collective wisdom of millions of seemingly intelligent people failing to perceive the problem and failing to plan"

Hmmm.

Seems to me that with Rubin retiring and The Execs at Goldman Sachs reporting to have bouhgt Generators, etc. That there are some who are planning.

It is doubtful that there is not a Connection.

It's likely they want to keep their money working for them as long as they possibly can.

Preserve the wealth of the rich and disenfranchise the poor. (through lack of information or disinformation)

Its a common political theme.

Does anyone know what Berkshire Hathaway is doing? Are they buying silver? As they were a year or two ago?

Father

-- Thomas G. Hale (hale.t@att.net), May 21, 1999.

It appears to me that if the market goes south, which I think it will then Wall St. will be looking for a scape goat, and what better scape goat then y2k. The so called sheeples will not admit that they aren't ready or didn't see this comming. They will see y2k as the perfect crash excuse. They will blame the survivalists and anything else that is tied to them. What does that mean well you know the legislators will use any excuse to write more laws and control more of our world. I think we better prepare for survival and blame. justthinkin

-- justthink com (y2kaok@justthink.com), May 21, 1999.

No question that the USA equity market is a first cousin of the Dutch Tulip bulb Mania. We are in totally uncharted waters with respect to P/E, yield, ratio of equities to GDP, you name it, and the stats are surely in the twilight zone. The customary wisdom is that the street cannot look more than 6 months ahead. It clearly has not factored in y2k. With the Gartner group now estimating that 50% of companies in Germany will go under, at some point the street wakes up. And the crash will be horrific. I'm about to go short the market, something I've never done before. I think it is a no-brainer once in a lifetime opportunity to make oodles of $. Read Charles Mackays 1848 (no typo!) book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds." A classic. Bernard Baruch credited this book with saving his forture. I'm about to order John Kenneth Galbraith's book on the 1929 crash. This is a golden opportunity to make money. Do not waste it!

-- Tennessean (holladayl@aol.com), May 21, 1999.

Dave, just don't go to the Bird Sanctuary with out SEVERAL friends. e-me at the below, I think we may have some mutual acquaintences (who probably type/spell better than me LOL).

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), May 22, 1999.

HA I've been making money hand over fist on the record high Dow's! thanks for pulling out, extremists; your making me a bundle! (my home is paid for now; I have no debt. even if the market tanked tomorrow, I'm still set. and this all happend in the last two years! wild ride!)

-- (money@grubber.mass), May 22, 1999.