well, here is a rather informative report for anyone with a burning desire to see 'the big picture.'

here is another dot to connect to the last one.

http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/html/powergen.htm electric

[seems they create their own electricity...i think we should send some of the mavens from this forum to show them how to do it. our electrical industry is truly blessed...we have NO problems-NONE.]

The Oil and Gas Journal (February 15th 1999) has noted that gas turbines used extensively for oil field electrical power generation and steam injectors may both be affected. Gas turbines are also often used to generate electricity at refineries.

[now that is impossible! give me NAMES, DATES, PLACES, MANUFACTURERS AND SERIAL NUMBERS!!!]

http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/html/refine.htm refining

http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/html/oilprod.htm production

http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/html/pipeline.htm pipelines

The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), has drawn attention to potential difficulties associated with widespread use of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition. (SCADA)in oil and gas pipeline sectors. SCADA are used in oil and gas pipeline sectors. SCADA are used to relay information from remote sections of pipeline, and to control the flow of fuel at remote locations by using computers linked to satellite and telephone communication systems.

Basically SCADA systems allow pipeline operators to obtain timely information on their pipelines. In view of pipeline operators reliance on SCADA, FERC has concluded that the y2k compliance of such systems is critical.

[maybe someone on this forum should call the iea and tell them that scada is 'nada' problem.]

The vulnerable nature of pipeline systems to peripheral communication and control systems was recently highlighted in Iraq. In February 1999 a missile hit a repeater station on the Kirkuk to Ceyhan oil pipeline. Although the pipeline itself was not damaged, the loss of the communications center cut the flow of oil between Iraq and Turkey. The pipelines control centres at Kirkuk and Ceyhan terminals rely on data from repeater stations to operate valves, pressure and temperature controls along various stages of the pipeline. Without data, these control centres were effectively blind, losing operational control and ordering system shutdown. An attempt was made to operate the line manually but was aborted as operationally unfeasible, thus highlighting the vulner-. ability of modern pipeline systems to computerised data and communication links. Repairs took nearly one week to complete.

[you know how those 'other' countries are...they just can't seem to get it right.]

http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/html/ship.htm shipping

http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/html/prefind.htm preliminary

-- Anonymous, May 20, 1999

Answers

Thanks, Marianne! These are about the most straightforward (even blunt) assessments I've seen written by any organization. In the Executive Summary it stated:

"The complexities of the oil supply chain, and its resultant interdependencies may cause a ripple effect with the potential to harm even those companies and nations that consider themselves fully compliant."

In the Preliminary Findings section, these findings are divided into the headings of:

Company Size Variation; Regional Variation; Not Everyone Will Be Ready; Some Y2K Problems Will Be Missed; Support Infrastructure Could Cause Problems; and Offshore Oil Production Most At Risk.

Under the Support Infrastructure Could Cause Problems this is said:

"Like any other part of the economy, the oil industry is heavily dependent on the electricity, telecommunications and water utilities. Given that these are highly complex, it is not unreasonable to expect that the oil industry will suffer some difficulties as a result of Y2K problems occurring in these sectors. Many oil refineries have their own electricity generating plants and it may therefore be possible to escape some of the worst consequences of electricity utility failures. However, some impact on the oil industry of utility related failures does appear inevitable."

Yep, they used the word "inevitable". This is an international agency, so their assessments are geared to the global situation. Combine that statement with the Executive Summary one above about ripple effects and it becomes very hard not to conclude that no one is going to be immune from the consequences of any overseas failures.

I also very much liked one of the initial statements made in the Senate testimony:

"Too few people are looking at the cumulative effect of small probability events across sectors on collective activities. This is probably, because everyone, understandably, is more concerned about their own micro-situation....However, it is the aggregate result that will affect the oil market."

-- Anonymous, May 21, 1999