Gary North's REALITY CHECK

Issue 39 May 19, 1999

WHAT KEY ITEMS WILL RUN OUT FIRST?

I read the original comet-strikes-the-earth novel, LUCIFER'S HAMMER, about 15 years ago. I re-read it last year. I remembered only four things about it. But the item that had stuck in my mind most tenaciously was the incident of the wristwatch:

Senator Jellison looked at his electric watch and grimaced. It was good for another year, but then. . . . Why didn't he have an old- fashioned windup? The watch told him it was 10:38 and 35 seconds, and it wouldn't be off by more than a second until the battery ran out (p. 354).

Two weeks ago, I was tipped off that the Wal-Mart Supercenter in Springdale sells Gruen self-winding watches for $80. The store in Fayetteville doesn't sell them. So, the watches are specialty items -- so special that the generic directions that come in the case talk about the battery. There isn't one. There are three models: the Hollywood film mogul model, the macho underwater diver model, and the Mr. Cool model with the cobalt blue dial. Mr. Cool was for me. It has a second hand and a day-date box.

If I had not read LUCIFER'S HAMMER, and had I not for some strange reason remembered that incident, I would never have thought about buying a self-winding watch. I'll bet you would never have thought of it, either. But now you have. Where can you buy one? If not at Wal-Mart, then where?

I'll tell you where: in a pawnshop. That's the kind of item pawn shops have: high quality old technology. The item isn't worth much any more, but not because it doesn't work. It's there because it was made obsolescent. Offer the seller half of what the price tag says. There is no line in front of the counter. He'll bargain. He paid 25% of its present market value, which is at best problematical.

Pawn shops are great places to buy used CB radios, which are good for rural neighborhood watch groups. If you have a solar panel and a car battery charger, you can become the communications agent in the area.

Sometimes men pawn their tools. Tools will be very important in a society that has to patch up existing equipment. We will no longer be living in a throwaway society. People will learn to make do.

Here is a list of items that I think you would be wise to buy. If you know of alternatives, fine, but these will do just fine. We are in the middle of a Y2K breather, so supplies are available. This list was prepared in part by Mark Machuszek.

* * * * * * * * * * *

Ketadyn Water Filter: Pure water is necessary in nearly every emergency situation. It is required for everything from food preparation to wound-cleaning. Dependability, simplicity and production purity are key components for an emergency water filtration system. The Swiss made portable Katadyn is the industry leader, used by NATO, the Red Cross and certified by the EPA. The Katadyn ceramic reusable filter will produce up to 13,000 gallon of water making it the highest output system available. Price: approx. $250. Availability: Scarce. Most resellers say you will get one in 3-4 months. The reality however is 6-8 months. Any additional demand will outstrip supply fast because of the slow manufacturing process and its importation from Europe will create bottlenecks. These units are available at sporting goods stores, army surplus and camping supply stores, or you can order from Lehmans (330) 857-5757, http://www.Lehmans.com or Ready Made Resources (800) 627-3809, or Real Goods Trading Company (800) 919-2400 http://www.RealGoods.com. An alternative is the British Berkefeld, which is not on back-order. It's $280. Call WAVE (800) 528-0559.

E Still: This is a newly designed product that purifies water from any available heat source. The unit removes 99% of water contaminates making it usable in medical situations as well. Made of stainless steel, similar in look to a double boiler, it evaporates questionable water, condenses it and delivers pure distilled drinking water. The unit has no moving parts and produces 3/4 of an ounce of water per minute! Additionally, it can be used everyday for eliminating costly water filters or home bottled water delivery. Price: Approx. $190.00. Availability: limited. One company makes it and there are no commercial alternatives. Although you can receive one now, a small rise in demand would make this product unavailable. Order from http://www.The-Natural-Answer.com or write or call The Natural Answer, 1108 Camino Real #301, Redondo Beach CA. 90277, (310) 545-7676.

Water Storage: Storing water for an emergency situation is quite critical. Safe storage vessels need to be health department or EPA approved, therefore you cannot simply put drinking water into a new plastic trash can and think everything is ok! Water storage tanks are widely available from 55 gallon soft drink syrup barrels to 10,000 gallon and up fiberglass underground cistern systems. The $10.00, 55 gallon syrup drums are purchased used, need to be cleaned, have long waiting lists up to 7 months(due to their low costs) and need to be picked up by you. New FDA approved 55 gallon barrels are still available, but not for long if demand picks up because shipping these units from the manufacture, distributor to end user will take money and space if more important items need to be shipped (like food). If Y2K demand grows, you will see the logistical problem moving these containers will present. Price: Approx. $60.00. Availability: Moderate. Try to obtain barrels locally to save cost and/or get your home on a waiting list at a local bottling company. Water barrels and tanks are available at surplus stores, some camping/boating supply houses or call Major surplus (800) 441-8855 or contact http://www.watertanks.com . This is one component in our emergency preparation which must not be overlooked. Alternative: Aqua-flex manufactures a flat, expandable EPA approved water storage systems that range in size from pillowcase to water bed size. They fold up flat or roll-up and expand like a balloon but will not pop. Price: $39.00-$250.00 plus S/H. Availability: Scarce, new product and little distribution network. Contact http://www.The-Natural-Answer.com or write to The Natural Answer, 1108 Camino Real, #301, Redondo Beach, CA 90277.

Food: If water is your life blood, food is your fuel. As a result of Y2K, many people have been ordering food for long term storage. Many of the manufactures ranging from small family businesses to medium sized back packing food producers have been overwhelmed. Back orders are from 3-13 months out and actually deliveries are 2-3 months later. Delays are occurring in all areas of production from shortages of product to channels of distribution. Certain fruits and vegetables are very hard to get. Although there is a large network of independent retailers they all seem to get their products from the same small group of manufactures. Delivery of one year's supply of food in a unit is slow and incomplete. Warning: any small pick-up in demand by the general population will exceed the production capabilities of all the producers! There will not be a second chance. Price: variable. Purchase as many back-up supplies from your local grocery store, sporting goods stores and RV stores. Order long term storage from Sam Andy Feast at (800)331-0358, or Ready Made Resources (800)627-3809.

Emergency Generators: Emergency/backup generators produce electricity using variety of fuel sources namely gasoline, diesel or propane. These reliable, old standby generators have a long history of providing electricity in boats, campers, construction sites and used in home or business as back up. Price: $700.00 and up. Availability: Very scarce. Hi demand (relatively speaking) coupled with low volume production paints a bleak picture in obtaining lower price models like Winco. This company is sold out for the entire year. Onan, another brand is also back ordered 3 months (translation 6-8 months). If demand picks up even slightly there will be no low cost alternative available period. Currently, the large commercial generators are available but you need endless fuel storage and an endless budget to afford these. To obtain a small generator check all local resources first, like marine hardware stores, Honda Motor Corporation, Sears, Home Depot, RV Dealers or contact Real Goods Trading Company at (800)919-2400, or http://www.realgoods.com. Renew Ready Made Resources at (800) 627-3809, or try Alternative Power at (608) 637-2722.

Grain Mills: Grain mills are multi-functional units that processes grains, lentils, coffee or any product that needs to be pulverized, ground or powdered. Obviously in our modern society this essential unit has disappeared from most homes, in fact most people would not know what to do with one! Most grain mills come from small companies that are use to a slow but steady demand from Amish people, homesteaders, off-the-grinders and other independent individuals. The large demand created by Y2K has impacted the delivery schedules. Many of the highest quality models have a long waiting list 6-9 months. Although there is a lull in orders right now (the Y2K frenzy has cooled a bit), the manufactures are still in a catch-up mode from the last run. Any increase in demand within the next few months will expand the waiting list beyond the year 2000. Not only will it be to late to get one, how will the distribution infrastructure get it to you anyway. Do not buy the cheap grain mills generally under $75.00, as they do not work well or last long. Price: $75.00-350.00. The Whisper Mill is a good brand. Availability: Moderate now. Check cooking supply stores in malls, upscale retailers cooking departments or contact Major Surplus (800) 441-8855, Lehmans (330) 857-5757 or Ready Made Resources (800) 627-3809.

Surehook: A new fishing product that recently received Department of Defense approval for survival. Surehook is a small spring loaded fishing device that hooks fish on the first nibble. There is a 95% success rate at catching a fish. Price: approx. $13.00. Availability: Very limited, not available in stores. Contact The Natural Answer, (310) 545-7676 or http://www.The-Natural-Answer.com .

The following is a list of items that we may have overlooked when purchasing the larger components of our emergency preparation systems. Most parts are available locally or these vendors mentioned in this article can get them now.

Aladdin Lamps: Full line of high output, high quality, durable oil lamps. Price: $59.00 and up. Availability: Very scarce, sold out for 1999; however, some vendors have merchandise from large orders they placed in advance. Get them now or an alternative.

Wicks and Mantles and Replacement parts: You might have your lamp but what about the wicks and mantles? Aladdin is sold out and many others are back-ordered. Additionally what about a few extra glass chimneys just in case. Price: $5.00 and up. Availability: Very scarce!

Solar Battery Chargers: Charges worn out A,B,C and D batteries using the sun. Most brands from most manufactures are quite behind. Price: $5.00-35. Availability: Moderate.

Solar Panel Mounting Hardware: The brackets that hold photovoltaic panels to roofs or ground mounts are always on delay in normal times. Now it is getting worse. Price: Variable. Availability: Moderate, but will become very scarce.

For a non-crucial item that will pay for itself in a year, get a Suds Pump soap dispenser, which cuts liquid soap use by 90%. It's ideal for families with small children. Have one in each bathroom and in the kitchen. In a crisis situation, liquid soap will become like liquid gold. Soap always does. A bar of soap was a basic barter item in Germany after World War II. You can order ten of these dispensers for $74 from Jessica Johnson, 2627 Lynn St., Bellingham, WA 98225.

The list will be updated again as needed. With items mentioned in this report, try to get them now while the hysteria has cooled and before the next wave of panic settles in.

-- a (a@a.a), May 20, 1999

Answers

A WATCH? KEEPING TRACK OF TIME IS WHAT GOT US INTO TROUBLE IN THE FIRST PLACE. WE SHOULD ONLY KEEP TRACK OF THE SEASONS.

-- Arthur Washington (ARTWASH@webtv.net), May 20, 1999.

He doesn't mention it, but the Family Grain Mill is one impressive mill. Got mine and love it. Large hopper. Also has vegetable chopper/grater with attachments, roller/flaker, and meat grinder. Costs a few bucks, but half the price of the Rolls Royce (Country Living mill). In stock many places.

-- Debbie (dbspence@usa.net), May 20, 1999.

As always: Thanks, "a", for informative if not life saving info such as this.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), May 20, 1999.

Wicks, mantles, etc are plentiful in my area (SO Central PA). Try a True Value hardware store.

-- (rcarver@inacom.com), May 20, 1999.