* * * 19990519 Wednesday Re: How much is too much to prepare for: Detroit Edison ( DTE ) and MichCon ( MCN ) Y2K preparations? ... Answer: 6-to-9 MONTHS!

I attended a very enlightening Y2K public forum in Dearborn, Michigan last night with a panel of representatives from Wayne County (MI), Dearborn (MI), MichCon (MCN; NG provider to 1.2M customers in SE and rural Michigan-of 9M state population), Detroit Edison ( DTE; Electric for 2.3M customers in Michigan), SSA (local office rep).

For Pollys and GI's, a (_LOW-END_!--IMHO) "benchmark"--for lack of a better term--for preparedness has been nailed down ... Finally!

From the horses ... er, mouths, this:

* Detroit Edison is "stockpiling" ( their description! ) "6-to-9 MONTHS supply of coal" at their sites in Michigan!

* MichCon is "stockpiling" ( again, their term ) roughly "6 MONTHS supply of NG" ( for this region )--about 650 Bcf (=Billion cubic feet)! Normal "reserve" is 150Bcf!

Ergo, deductive reasoning would lead to the reasonable and prudent deduction that we--JQP--should be doing the same without derision from politicians, bureaucratic flaks and any media types.

These reserves are intended for customer use unless usurped by EO #12919 and a declaration of national state of emergency!

Spin spewing forth from any quarter, calling for Y2K preparations of 72 hours, 5 days, or seven days is immoral, evil, bankrupt, without basis or foundation, not in the remote area of any Y2K ballpark event ... you get the idea?

These direct statements from each entity ( public officials and public held corporations are is they are willing to admit publicly--but not in their SEC 10K Year 2000 statements!

JQP should be well advised that 6-to-9 months is not "hoarding" but prudent stockpiling in light of the evidence and demonstrated behavior.

Any questions? ...

To all you Pollys: Get off your dead asses ... or perish.

If you are not prepared for Y2K BEFORE it arrives, be prepared to be forcibly moved to Public Shelters, courtesy of FEMA. You'll spend the "undetermined duration" in converted public living quarters at the otherwise-useless malls, schools, churches, warehouses, etc.

... Fair warning!! ...

Regards, Bob Mangus < rmangus@hotmail > * * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@hotmail.com), May 19, 1999

Answers

good they they are stockpiling so much

this talk of forcible relocation is silly

-- Gus (ykk@usa.net), May 19, 1999.

Now wait a minute. The crucial question is what is their normal amount of stockpiled coal. Thirty years ago that supply of coal would be vower than normal in some stations. That was before the bean-counters took over the CEO and boardrooms. Stockpiles of coal have been reduced over the years, non-performing assests and all that.

So before you can say that the 6-9 months means anything, you have to know what the stockpiles have traditionally been over the last decade or so.

-- Ken Seger (kenseger@earthlink.net), May 19, 1999.

* * * 19990519 Wednesday

Apologies for the error of omission: "normal" coal "reserve" is 30 DAYS!

The numbers speak for themselves, folks! This is NOT MY OPINION! These utilities are preparing--by allegedly digging into current profits--to accrue these out-of-the-ordinary stockpiles for Y2K.

Read it! ... Then weep! ...

Regards, Bob Mangus * * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@hotmail.com), May 19, 1999.

I also attended a Y2K meeting at local city council - Loveland, Ohio is a suburb of Cincinnati:

Cinergy is local electric and natural gas provider and advised they:

1. have 70 days of coal in stock. 2. determined that the Ohio River locks and dams work independent of computers or embedded chips. 3. will have all plants running at 11,000 mega watts on 12/31/1999 and 12/31/1998 local demand was 3,000 mega watt. 4. will have staff at all sub stations, compressors during rollover. 5. are confident they can stay connected to grid to help other utilities. 6. started Y2K in 1995.

SO, while I agree there is a need to prepare, I think you may be over reacting BUT Detroit may be harder hit than Cincinnati.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), May 19, 1999.

Bob,

I assume you are referring to the following meeting: (Please correct me if I'm wrong)

Justice Pro-Se Of Michigan

Tuesday, May 18th, 1999

* * Y2K UPDATE * * Franklin Frith, Moderator

Invited Panelists:

U.S. Coast Guard Y2K Manager for the City of Dearborn Y2K Manager for the City of Dearborn Heights Detroit Water Board McKesson Pharmacy Systems City of Detroit Fire Department Office of Emergency Management Michigan Consolidated Gas Co. Social Security Detroit Edison

7:00 To 10:00 PM EDT Tuesday May 18th, 1999 Henry Ford Centennial Library Auditorium 16301 Michigan Ave., Dearborn, Michigan

With all respect, Bob (because I try to make it a point not to disrespect anyone who posts heartfelt views in this forum), I am confused. Isn't it a good thing that these utilities are stockpiling reserves? Doesn't that indicate that they are attempting to insure continued service?

I may be missing something, but it seems to me that they are prepared to abandon "just in time" delivery, in order to do their best to provide continued service.

Is there some reason we should not believe them? Is that why you are saying the public should do the same? Again, I am confused.

Also, exactly what is EO #12919? It is my understanding that--for example--given a shortage of power, critical services (hospitals, police, etc.) are supplied first, followed by residents, followed by businesses. Is there some reason this executive order ( I presume that's what EO means) would change that?

Also, did anyone ask these panelists what the public should do to prepare for UNEXPECTED problems? If so, what did they say?

:)

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), May 19, 1999.

Thanks Bob, that was the missing piece of the puzzle.

30 days is normal, sheesh! How things have changed.

My typo - should have read, 30 years ago that amount of coal would be LOWER than usual.

FM makes a good point. It is great that they are stocking up. It is bad that they think they need to.

-- Ken Seger (kenseger@earthlink.net), May 19, 1999.

So they finally went with that 30 day requirement? Shoot, used to be 3 months was the minimum where you didn't get chewed out by NERC or somebody.

I have seen stockpiles as large as 4 million tons - that is a lot of soft rock any way you pile it up.

It might be worth noting here that the US runs about 20% over generation capacity (which doesn't mean what you think and I am not going into it here), while Japan runs about 10%. The difference lies in quality standards for maintainence in Japan - they keep more of their stuff online for longer periods, but replace more equipment instead of keeping the stuff running until it is completely worn out.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), May 19, 1999.

FM, to elaborate on your comments:

Local Red Cross identified priority of service restoration as:

1. Hospital and Emergency Rooms (Critical Care Facilities)

2. Police, Fire and Emergency Services

3. Public Shelter (Schools, Churches, or other bldgs with large number of people.

4. Residential areas by population density. Rural areas would be addressed after urban and suburban.

5. Businesses/Local Govt. with a Non-Interupt of Power Contract.

6. Businesses/Local Govt. with an Interruptible Power Contract.

My understanding of Executive Orders includes a scenario where feds could order a utility not to voluntarily disconnect from the power grid (a practice called islanding and touted by some utilities as part of their contingency IF other utilities experience an outage). The EOs allow govt to nationalize the means of production as part of a declared emergency for application for the greatest good. I suppose "the greatest good" is open to interpretation. BUT the intent is if city A is without power and freezing while cities B,C, and D are at full power than govt could institute power sharing or rolling brownouts. While islanding may be in the interest of the compliant utility, the EOs could force a utility to attempt to energize the grid. Some utilities have expressed concern that they could be forced to put their compliant equipment at risk.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), May 19, 1999.

Bill,

Those are some very interesting comments and I'd be most interested in the sources for you understanding of the following:

6. Businesses/Local Govt. with an Interruptible Power Contract.

(I assume this means they've negotiated lower rate in exchange for occasional interruptions of service based upon unexpected demand, etc.)

You also wrote:

"The EOs allow govt to nationalize the means of production as part of a declared emergency for application for the greatest good. I suppose "the greatest good" is open to interpretation."

So, based upon that (and what you wrote following that quote) it might seem likely that--if there are "localized" outages--(as we've heard there might be) people in danger of freezing to death without heat might be spared at the expense of those who only need to keep their refrigerators running? Interesting. Again--I'd be interested in learning more about your sources.

:)

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), May 19, 1999.

* * * 19990519 Wednesday

Item #1:

Polly-"Gus": Using a fraudulant e-mail address. Won't dignify his I/O any longer.

Item #2:

Fm ( aka vidprof ): That was the meeting, indeed. Franklin and I are collaborating ( sharing resources and expertise ) in prep for the Y2K live WTVS-PBS Detroit "Back to Back" shows. I'm scheduled for Tuesday, May 25; Franklin is scheduled for Tuesday, June 1.

My intent was to identify the logical Achille's (sp?) heels for public exposure on live, call-in TV. A rare opportunity, don't you think? I've got too much ammunition to squeeze into my 13 minute segment. I have to go to a smaller "magazine" load using only high- power ammo! I need to shake up the foundations based on the level of incompetence and ineptitude exhibited last night. It was pathetic and down right scary!

Item #2:

JIT deliveries and inventory costs have dramatically changed the "norms" in each and every segment of our infrastructure. Doesn't matter where you look. However, _in the JIT scheme of things today_, the fact that they plan on 6-to-9 MONTHS of "stockpile" actually speaks volumes in magnitudes about how "bad" their anal_ysts think the Y2K scenario _should_ be. ( One would think that one would not typically act on whims! THERE MUST BE A HIGH DEGREE OF CERTITUDE FOR THESE GUYS TO BE "STOCKPILING" ON SUCH AN [RELATIVELY!] ENORMOUS SCALE! )

Things have changed a lot with universal implementation of computer- dependent processes since the '70's. The essential problem is that management hasn't obviated viable contingency plans in favor of technology dependence/addiction. They will dramatically change for the worst ( circa 1900 ) as the Y2K meltdown progresses.

Technology-dependent societies will experience "Technological Remorse"--my term--when it all caves in around us.

Have to get more ammo ...

Regards, Bob Mangus * * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@hotmail.com), May 19, 1999.

Quick link ..

Search Executive Orders

http://www.pub.whitehouse.gov/search/executive-orders.html

Executive Order # 12919 on National Defense Resources -- 1994-06-03

http://www.pub.whitehouse.gov/uri- res/I2R?urn:pdi://oma.eop.gov.us/1994/6/7/3.text.2

Dont have time to read at the mo.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), May 19, 1999.

FM,

AN Interruptible Power Contract is quite common among large users of power. Many steel plants use enormous amounts of electricity to melt scrap metal into liquid steel for reforming as a new bar or beam or wire. These "Electric Furnace" shops buy power in blocks at much lower price per KW and agree to allow the utility to interupt power during peak demand. Interupts frequently occur in summer hot weather during which many electric furnaca shops take an extensive outage for repair or melt at night when demand is lower. THE EF shops also have a strict power consumption control because if they use 1 KW more than the block of power they have contracted their rates go up fast.

My sources - 25 years in heavy manufacturing and lots of reading and listening.

Peace,

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), May 19, 1999.

FM, "it might seem likely that--if there are "localized" outages--(as we've heard there might be) people in danger of freezing to death without heat might be spared at the expense of those who only need to keep their refrigerators running?"

BTW, my read of the EOs is the INTENT is to spread the pain so no one hurts too much. How this might really be applied is up for grabs.

Based on actual vs budget expense for Y2K I expect we will see rolling brownouts if not regional blackouts. A blackout occuring not only due to software failure but rather to a utility that tries to energize the grid without all the communications and satelite timing which results in physical damage to the plant equipment ie overload and fried.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), May 19, 1999.

sorry i'm bold-challenged, but i would bold the part about the lack of compensation........... from EO 12919

never mind, apparently i'm snip/paste challenged as well......

-- sarah (qubr@aol.com), May 20, 1999.

EO 12919, Section 602

-- sarah (qubr@aol.com), May 20, 1999.

If they stock extra coal, you say, "omigosh, they must expect problems!"

If they DON'T stock extra coal, you say, "omigosh, they're ignoring the problem!"

The utilities can't win either way.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 20, 1999.

Stephen, re "the utilities can't win" ?

No one is down on the actions being taken by these utilities to stockpile. Our intellectual assessment and judgment is that this is prudent and a good thing; I think we are all agreeing on that. The emotional reaction (e.g. "they must expect problems!") is just that, a reaction -- not a judgment.

The point is that the utilities' preparation is a barometer about Y2k -- and a fairly good indication that Y2k is not the province of fools.

-- Debbie (dbspence@usa.net), May 20, 1999.

Poole -- Yet again, your comment exposes your absolutely unwillingness to learn anything about the subject in question. The thread has nothing to do with that and, as already pointed out, their prudence has been applauded.

The point was, "this kind of prudence by utilities is not evidential of what will happen but it is evidential of their own level of concern and citizens should well show an equivalent level of concern and actual preparation for themselves."

It is point-less to look for your agreement to anything which doesn't further your agenda, so I won't bother, but please stop posting statements which are clearly irrelevant to the thread.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 20, 1999.

Mr. Cesspool;

Where did you go to school? Or did you drop out last year when you were 8?

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), May 20, 1999.

Bob - sorry about the typo in my address, I chose it just for this forum and this time I got it in right

I am not a polly. obviously I don't know how bad it will be, but believe that if it is bad enough to warrant relocation in the minds of those in position to decide, then they won't have the means to carry it out

I'm much better prepared than the gov or the armed forces have any hope of being. We're prepared to feed ourselves for the rest of whatever, just have to finalize salt hoarding. Got enough ammo to last the rest of my life and I don't/won't have kids. Just because I don't expect a 10 doesn't mean I'm ignoring the possibility. Just got one of those curved handled scythes yesterday. Hard to imagine laying hay for the winter that way, but we do like milk.

that I have no faith in the government's ability to enact a forced relocation of even a small portion of the country doesn't mean I am polly - it just means I estimate their capabilities to be lower than you do

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), May 20, 1999.

Well, Mr. Poole...you have reduced me to doing something I have never done before on this forum. And I've been around here and the world far more than you:

Stephen M. Poole...You are an imbecile.You are an embarrassment to the human race and should be expelled from the planet.

-- PNG (png@gol.com), May 20, 1999.

Concerning the *volumn* of materials stockpiled:

Where are they _putting_ all this stuff? The quanities mentioned a physically LARGE. Like REALLY L A R G E ...

Anyone local to these companies seen appropriate activity? You're not going to just throw a tarp over it out in the back lot...

J

-- j (fire_water5@yahoo.com), May 20, 1999.

Robert,

Looks like you're famous. Gary North has picked up this thread. <:)=

Detroit Edison: 6-9 Months of Coal in Reserve. How?

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), May 20, 1999.

gotta go along with PNG on this one :)

-- a (a@a.a), May 20, 1999.

Thanks for this post Robert. I gotta agree with you, there is a real message there when they disclosed their stockpiles.

I don't have any confidence in coordinated govt/military/police to enforce any EO come y2k and after. There could easily be "rogue" units however, for a period of time, who will either help or hinder people.

Y2k _better_ be just a bump in the road cuz we ain't prepared as a nation for anything more than that.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), May 20, 1999.

I am a long time lurker, first time poster. This thead interested me because I live in the Detroit area. After reading Gary North's doubts on the amount of coal being stored, I called Detroit Edison (1-888- 464-3376) and asked where is the coal stored. The year 2000 information person put me on hold and came back and told me that the coal is stored at each individual plant. She confirmed that there is indeed a 6-9 month supply of coal. For any further questions,and for recorded messages about Detroit Edison's year 2000 program you can call this number.

-- Brenda Looney (blooney@aol.com), May 20, 1999.

* * * 19990520@12:20PM-ET, Thursday

The Y2K public meeting ran from 7:30-10:30pm with a 10 minute break. Longer and more intense than anticipated. The gracious panelists ( that had the gumption to show up ) were grilled pretty good with some very good questions ( all caught on video tape ) from the audience. ( after a full day at work, too. ) There was nowhere near enough time to get into arguments re the veracity of statements and claims espoused. What that there had been.

Detroit Edison (DTE) did not address the logistics of storage facilities. MichCon (MCN), however, indicated they were building new (to be completed before the end of 1999), underground storage facilities in St. Clair, MI county (just to the north of Detroit- proper).

Having hosted many of these forums myself ( in 1998 ), I can tell you that discussions could go on forever because of the scope of the Y2K computer problem; historically unprecedented.

It would be nice to verify how much and where any utility is storing their contingency raw materials. In southeastern Michigan there are many closed (abandoned?) factories and other facilities that could probably be leased/purchased for a song and a dance.

Storing Bcf's of "COMPRESSED" NG in underground caverns, on the other hand is another matter. This is not something done overnight. Years of planning and acquiring access rights (?) to underground caverns that "are thousands of feet below the surface," too?! I have reason to doubt the veracity of these claims, too. DTE didn't start their Y2K remediation until 1995 (their one-of-many-dates-I've-heard claim)! Can they possibly excavate/build that much capacity in 3-4 years. They had not completed their Y2K inventory until July of 1999! That certainly does not seem to comport with the Y2K preparation story lines and claims. Hmmm...

I would characterize the panelists at this forum as technology challenged. They regurgitated their respective organization story-- as PR flaks are expected to do. They usually are given "cleansed" (filtered/scripted) information. Unless they possess the appropriate knowledgebase, their statements are self-exposing to critical thinkers.

For instance, one does not have to be a technical wizard to recognize the disparity/dissonance of IRS published reports in Aug/Sep 1997 newspapers that they claimed ~400,000,000 lines of code (LOC) to remediate for Y2K. Subsequently, at a Troy, MI, Lutheran church public Y2K panel forum ( that I attended in March, 1999! ), the IRS representative (flak) unabashedly stated that they HAD COMPLETED their Y2K remediation on their inventory of ~30,000,000 LOC!! Huh?!? What happened to that whopping (400,000,000 - 30,000,000 =) ~370,000,000 LOC previously and publicly reported?! It was pathetically laughable.

Y2K PR campaigns of disinformation is bewildering. Personal experience informs me that gross disparities are generated by redefinition of the scope and domain of Y2K responsibilities by the party/parties to someone else's domain. In the case of the IRS, I believe they disowned/reassigned "ownership" and responsibility for, out to the states for computer system code provided to the state by the IRS. How convenient, eh?

...

Y2K relocation of large populations ...

Read the published FEMA Y2K plans. Their Y2K-delusional plans are publicly documented.

I, too, am of the humble opinion that _no_ government is capable of dealing with relocation of populations to "public shelters" for Y2K- care and feeding. That said, the prospects of sinister government actions/options/reactions are likely to result from sheer, base desperation. (Unintended consequences from otherwise acts of "helping". Sheesh ... Just look at the current Kosovar refugee debacle by US/NATO.)

Malls and schools (etc.) converted to "cattle holds" is one (vain) option: lots of space, virtually self-contained (i.e., food courts, sanitation facilities, etc.), energy efficient, easy to "secure." I'm sure it'll be considered/attempted. (How will the average US citizen react?) ...

The mind boggles at the range of potentialities juxtaposed with the historical record and capacity of Man's inhumanity towards fellow Man. (Korea is experiencing cannibalism in the wake of years of famine and starvation.) ...

...

Brenda Looney:

Thanks for that DTE inquiry and input ...

Now, a third party (disinterested and knowledgeable about how much 6- 9 months worth of stockpiled coal looks like!) needs to VERIFY/CERITFY the veracity of storage inventory claims made by any entity, anywhere, via telephone/letter. (Don't forget the DoD Y2K compliance lies disclosed by the media last fall!) ...

* Are there traceable financial transactions for the purchases?

* Is something like this reported in the bowels of the SEC 10K Year 2000 statements? (I'd think so. Perhaps not. It definitely should be considered a Y2K-related "material cost" to any business. Hmmm ...)

History bodes ill for Y2K-related _claims_ (statements) of every sort ( i.e., letters and/or verbal statements "compliance" ). What [are/would be the] consequences (anyway) for boldface corporate/government Y2K associated lies at this late juncture? ...

...

The quest for "Y2K truth" from any quarter at this "late date" seems almost a moot and a futile task. The fact is, it is too late for ~270 million Americans (~140 million households) to do anything but cursory/reactionary time-compressed Y2K preparations. Acts of futility? (Perhaps some quick lessons to the Y2K-unprepared from the Kosovo refugees on US soil might be instructive?) ...

...

Perhaps threads like this will become independent (Drudge-like genre) bellwethers/barometers for Y2K event consequences? After all, every source that citizens are dependent upon for Y2K-related information is compromised and questionable from one angle or other ( i.e., stock price declines, co-opted corporate-owned news media, election and power driven politicians). Ah, the cynicism. It comes from my experiences and perception of betrayal as a Vietnam veteran by my corporate-government.

I love my country (US Constitution) ... but fear my (ANY) government!

...

I'll monitor this thread closely until "Back to Back" ShowTime next Tuesday. (Unless I'm dis-invited! )

That's it for now.

A hearty "Thank you!" to all participants/contributors to this thread.

Keep it up!

Regards, Bob Mangus < rmangus@hotmail.com > * * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@hotmail.com), May 20, 1999.

Gee, I wonder if Detroit Edison and MichCon employees wear crash helmets while driving to work...

-- Goombah (goombah@aol.com), May 20, 1999.

* * * 19990520 Thursday

Goombah,

According to the panelists responding to a question related to utility personnel security during the Q&A, Emergency Management Organizations and/or National Guard assume security responsibilities during declarations.

However, these panelist _claimed blushing ignorance_ about any Executive Orders and their impact on their business. I doubt any of them ran home to check out Executive Order 12919 as suggested from the audience.

The panelists expressed almost a childish attitude of astonishment and disbelief at the standing possibility that their ( private ) business--as well as private resources/labor as deemed necessary-- could be 'conscripted' by Uncle Sam--without compensation ( worried about shareholders stakes ). These folks, and their stockholders, should be well aware of potential government actions.

Have to get more rice and beans ...

Regards, Bob Mangus * * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@hotmail.com), May 20, 1999.

Incredible, a lonely voice of sanity in this berserk bin of loonies and hysterics, and you think he should be"expelled from the planet"??

And the rice and bean gang have the gall to say: "the worst thing that can happen if it is just a bump in the road is I'll look a bit stupid". Next year, when you finally realize who is the imbecile, I hope you send him a postcard.

-- Computer Pro (first_minister@hotmail.com), May 20, 1999.

BigDog: Poole's response is dead on topic, and makes perfect sense in the context of the subject of this thread, despite your claim to the contrary. So it would appear to me, and I'm not brain-dead. What I would say to you is, quit allowing your prejudices to blind you to what what is germane, and what is not.

PNG: Anata wa boketemas. Henna gaijin desu. (Those of you who don't speak Japanese: my apologies. PNG should understand pefectly, if he's the expert in Nihonese affairs he claims to be.) Glad you're in Japan. Stay there. Poole reduced you not a bit. You reduce yourself.

To all: stockpiling by two utilities does NOT equal Doom. No matter how far you might try to stretch it, no matter how thin you slice it.

Does P. Davis's post make no sense to anyone? 3 months' supply was formerly the NORM. Verifiable fact. So two utilities in the cold North are stockpiling 2 or 3 times that against a possible shortfall...SO WHAT?? I'd point out that they're not stockpiling TEN or TWENTY times the norm, as so many people of the Doomer persuasion would suggest that we as individuals do.

I sometimes wonder about the mental effect that actual events transpiring on or around 1-1-2000 will have on those who have gotten so carried away with this Doom scenario....some may have such adverse reactions of despair over being so terribly wrong that, (in counterpoint to this fanciful being "forcibly moved to Public Shelters, courtesy of FEMA") some of them might end up being forcibly removed to nice quiet places with padded walls....

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), May 20, 1999.

* * * 19990520 Thursday

Okay, Naysayer-Pollyannas! You've crossed the line with me and contribute nothing to the facts at hand and as truthfully presented as I can.

( Reiteration: The statements cited above approximate/paraphrase actual statements by the presenting parties. The actual statements were CAPTURED on VIDEO TAPE and CAN BE INDEPENDENTLY CORROBORATED. )

I have merely truthfully reported/conveyed personally witnessed public utterances made by ostensibly authorized Y2K representatives from MichCon--Mr. Paul Gants, of the Ann Arbor, Michigan Office--and Detroit Edison--Mr. Jim Brosen--addressing REAL Year 2000 computer- related issues and concerns. Nothing more, and nothing less.

Deal with the facts as presented and move on with Y2K information as developments occur.

If these organizations representations of their Y2K preparedness ( aka contingencies ) are false--prove so!

If these representations prove to be false--then, we have to look at the wherefore and why such alleged misrepresentations would/should be officially disseminated for deception.

Casting and flailing personal aspersions adds no value to the ostensible purpose Ed Yourdon's forum.

Put up ... Or ...!

With Respect and Regard for disseminating Y2K truth,

Bob Mangus < rmangus@hotmail.com > * * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@hotmail.com), May 20, 1999.

Well, Gary says 3 one mile long trains of coal are used at a big power plant every day. Can anyone confirm this? Mr. Cook? Dan?

So, let's say it's a medium plant, one that only needs 1 train per day. And let's go with the low side at 6 months, 180 days. I think a 1 mile long train has about 100 cars (???), so we're talking 18,000 car loads of coal. We need a RR guy here, how big is a car load? Now, I can see my house from terraserver.com, so I would think we should be able to find 18,000 loads of coal... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), May 20, 1999.

Mr. Mangus,

I do not differ with your presentation of the facts noted, not in the least.

I do differ very strongly with the inferences/conclusions you draw from those facts. Simply stated.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), May 20, 1999.

* * * 19990520 Thursday

Sysman,

Thank you ...

It looks like you're heading down the right "tracks!" I like the approach.

There would be tremendous VALUE in discrediting purveyors of disinformation with plain old-fashioned plausibility.

Quantitative analysis that can be applied by the average layman against alleged Y2K stockpiled coal "evidence" observed by anyone at a selected target organization is a solid strategy. It's universal! I like it.

Let's continue brainstorming this thing!! ... Choo-o-o-o, choo-o ...

High Regards, Bob Mangus < rmangus@hotmail.com > * * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@hotmail.com), May 20, 1999.

Bob,

Prior to your appearance on television, you may wish to check with Michigan Senator Matt Dunaskiss' office, with regard to what that office is advising Michigan residents to do to prepare for Y2k.

A few months ago, that office was quoted as advising residents to seriously consider the following statement: "You may wish to buy a generator." The reason was concern that if Michigan's many automobile plants were to shut down suddenly, there could be some sort of damage to the electric distribution system. I don't know details on how this might happen. I'm sure there are those on this forum who might be able to elaborate on that.

Dunaskiss is apparently the head of a Michigan Senate Committee charged with some sort of oversight responsibilities with regard to Detroit Edison. He is from Oakland County. His phone number can be found on the Web.

:)

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), May 21, 1999.

* * * 19990521 Friday

FM:

I have dealt directly with Sen. Dunaskiss' office re Y2K. He chairs the State Senate Science and Technology Committee. During 1998, I provided his office with much of the Y2K information that I was told moved them "off the dime" to host a series of public hearings in villages and townships throughout the Senator's district in Oakland County.

I've discussed "out of the box" ideas about the state legislature repealing laws and ordinances that would/could inadvertently inhibit citizens from prudent preparations ( e.g., overriding ordinances/bans against well digging ). He seemed amenable to this direction if events warranted.

His office hosted small business forums to present information about Y2K throughout the summer/fall months. Unfortunately to dismal turnouts ( 6-10 people )!

He's well aware of the Y2K issues and problems of awareness. He was "livid"--and quoted as such in a Detroit News print article following the hearing--when, at a public hearing in July, 1999, Detroit Edison testified to having purchased massive amounts of heavy capital equipment from Monroe Power ( a southeast Michigan power company ) that was KNOWN TO NOT BE Y2K-COMPLIANT!

His office is still actively "monitoring" the Y2K situation. However, like MOST politicians, this is not an issue they can DO anything about and does not curry favor with business constituencies.

Y2K is the proverbial political "hot potato!" A lose-lose proposition.

Been there, done that.

...

I spoke with a gentleman, "Joe"--not his real name, this afternoon. He's employed as a broker of NG contracts between parties. Joe was kind enough to run some numbers and anecdotes by me in prep for the public presentations I'll be party to this weekend and next week.

I'll briefly run some of what I've learned here, FYI and to establish a level of credibility to the premises and inferences some may have:

1. 10 Mcf ( Million cubic foot ) contract of NG costs ~US$25,000 (Kilo$).

2. 1 Bcf ( Billion ... ) would extend to ~US$2,500,000 (Million$).

3. 520 Bcf would cost ~US$1,300,000,000 (Billion$).

According to my notes taken during the Tuesday, May 19, 1999 Y2K presentation:

* Mr. Paul Gants, MichCon, stated MichCon had storage on-hand of "~130 Bcf." That MichCon is building a new ~400 Bcf storage cavern in southeast Michigan; it's scheduled to be completed and filled with compressed NG as a stockpile against untoward Y2K events.

* He also said that MichCon "services ~1.2 Million families;" "about 25% of Michigan."

[ I'm Curious: How will MichCon do the accounting for such an enormous purchase? Without affecting their credit ratings, not to mention avoiding stockholder shock ( heartattacks? ) from such a financial outlay? ]

According to "Joe," a "buy" ( demand ) of the order that Mr. Gants described would drive up the price of NG enormously and have unprecedented repercussions in the larger NG markets.

"Joe" also indicated that weekly summary reports do not reflect extraordinary volumes of NG that would/could indicate that "stockpiling" on this scale has NOT BEGUN.

[ I'm Curious: Could NG companies be extended E.O. "exemptions" to these reporting mechanism? Could there also be E.O. "exemptions" from certain financial transaction reporting as well? ]

With this information, a lot of uneasy questions spring forth.

1. Does MichCon REALLY have plans to "stockpile" 520 Bcf of NG by the end of 1999?

2. If SO?: Why SO MUCH?! ( MichCon claims: typical reserve of ~130 Bcf; typical January usage at ~50 Bcf )

3. What does MichCon ( TU, et al ) SEEM to KNOW that JQP DOESN'T?

4. If/When MichCon ( or ANY/ALL of the major players ) _openly_ proceed with this extraordinary NG "stockpiling" plans, what the heck would _THAT_ do to the economy and public awareness/perceptions about Y2K consequences?

5. Are the SCADAS ( Supervisory Controllers And Data Acquisition Systems; characterized as "embedded systems" ) controlling mid-stream gas lines/flows between/among the buyers/sellers at RISK of CATASTROPHIC Y2K failures.

... Hmmm ...

That's about it ... for the time being.

I want to extend my gratitude to "Joe" for his candid consultation. ( Our contact was gracefully facilitated by Gary North within HOURS of initiative/request by yours truly! )

Let's keep those brain cells above the brainstem functioning, folks.

A general thank you for all of the constructive and useful data- turned-into-information!!

This forum is the greatest!

With My Highest Regards, Bob Mangus < rmangus@hotmail.com > * * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@hotmail.com), May 21, 1999.

* * * 19990522 Saturday

FM:

Read the EO's for ( editorial ) yourself; they're all over the 'Net, in black and white!

...

Does ( editorial ) your failure to _plan_ morally translate to transferring that failure and consequences to ( editorial ) my outcome? ... Oh really!?

I think NOT!

Let's see ... "Sacrifice the ( editorial ) smartest for the ( editorial ) dumbest." ... errr ... "Save the ( editorial ) dumbest at the expense of the ( editorial ) smartest." ... Either proposition sounds nihlistic and self-destructive.

That sounds like a sure strategy for perpetuation, doesn't it!? ( Sarcasm intended! )

Where is ( editorial ) _your_ philosophical basis for this line of thinking/action?

Regards, Bob Mangus * * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@hotmail.com), May 22, 1999.

Well one thing I have noticed, is that every website I have looked into on the utilies and banks, I have noticed that none give a simple yes or no answer, they dance around the question by saying mainly , " We are very confident that we will meet all federal regulations by the end of the year" Did someone make that statement a universal answer? Our power company in South Florida is not compliant , nor is our Telephone companies. Matter of fact one of the head engineers is "preparing" for long outages following the new year. Did anyone watch the news report on 60 minutes on Sunday May 23? on Y2k and its problems???? Keep up the good work guys I am learning more and more every minute, I for one am not going to be waiting for the government to declare it a national emergency, anyone with eyes and ears can already see that it is coming like it or not........

-- Desere' (tcpr@gate.net), May 25, 1999.

I have the transcripts from the Michigan State Police EMD roundtable discussions....Some utilities in Michigan have 40 days stockpiled coal for winter all of the time. They ARE INCREASING THIS TO 90 - 120 days of coal STOCKPILED in case there is disruption in rail and coal supplies. It is prudent for them to do so....the point is...THE UTILITIES ARE NOT PREPARING FOR A WINTER STORM...THEY KNOW THAT Y2K IS UNIQUE AND CAN NOT BE LIKENED TO A WINTER STORM...I CAN PROVE IT WITH THE DOCUMENTS FROM THE UTILITY INDUSTRY AND FROM FEMA. I HAVE THE ORIGINAL DOCUMENTS. I was the moderator at the event in Dearborn, Michigan. I have participated in some of the EMD meetings. I have first hand information. The public is being put to sleep. It is a shame.

Franklin Frith....www.y2kcoming.com

-- Franklin Frith (franklin@y2kcoming.com), May 25, 1999.

* * * 20030816 Saturday * * * Okay! Got power back (north of Detroit) at 12:03AM-ET this morning. This historical BLACKOUT is the scenario that the top Detroit Edison (now, DTE) brass claimed, swearing up and down, in 1998 to the top brass at Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Michigan COULD NEVER HAPPEN! We knew they were deceitful about that claim; couldn't prove it at the time, however. Go figure; it took 3-1/2 years to expose the deceit. The governmental hearings should be interesting grist (a la WorldCom, Enron, etc.). Watch the squirming. (BTW: Anyone know the _direct_ body count from this "impossible" event involving 100 million innocents?) On the other hand, I have to give kudos to DTE for their efforts and success at the quick recovery from the "Y2K3 BLACK START" mode within 3 days. (Better than their 6 month estimates back in 1998!) We're teetering on disaster with 50-year-old transmission technology. This is too important for political positioning. Irony: Iraq will have a more modern electrical infrastructure than ours after we rebuild it.! Chew on that.

'Vindicatedly' Yours, Bob Mangus < rmangus1@yahoo.com >

(There is absolutely nothing to gloat about in this serious event. However, my conscience is 'cleared.')

-- Bob Mangus (rmangus1@yahoo.com), August 16, 2003.

http://www.detnews.com/2003/metro/0308/17/a06-245883.htm

The Detroit News

Sunday, August 17, 2003

For some, Y2K offered lessons

2000 forecasts, 9-11 changed Metro Detroit's response

By Mike Wowk / The Detroit News

STERLING HEIGHTS -- Within minutes of the power outage Thursday, Robert Johnson, Sterling Heights' emergency management coordinator, was summoned to a meeting with City Manager Steve Duchane.

The city's police chief, fire chief, public works director and public information officer also were present. The city leaders held a quick strategy session on how best to respond to the emergency.

The plans were implemented flawlessly, just as they had been practiced, Johnson said. His counterparts in Wayne and Oakland counties reported similar successes handling the power interruption. Except for a shortage of generators, it seemed to go as well as could be expected, officials said.

They attribute the success to their planning for Y2K, shorthand for a computer glitch that technology experts predicted would disrupt many facets of daily life on Jan. 1, 2000, because of the world's dependence on computers, which would not be able to handle the date change. The forecasted doom never materialized. Emergency planning after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks also helped manage the blackout, officials said.

"I've been here 15 years, and we've always had emergency plans," Johnson said. "But Y2K, more than 9-11, is what really (changed the situation). The loss of electricity is one of the contingencies we planned for."

Mark Hammond, assistant director for homeland security for Wayne County, said numerous face-to-face planning meetings and training sessions that began before Y2K and accelerated after 9-11 made it easier to manage the blackout.

Oakland County Sheriff's Department Capt. Donald McLellan credited citizens with being better prepared than in past years. Recent national emergencies and terrorist threats have prompted more people to buy backup generators, keep supplies of bottled water on hand and keep their vehicle gasoline tanks filled, he said.

"It doesn't have to be an event that knocks out all power in the northeastern United States," McLellan said. "It could be just a normal power outage, but people need to be more self-sufficient."

Shortly after the initial meeting Thursday in Sterling Heights, the city's police and public works vehicles fanned out to provide traffic control at major intersections, Johnson said. An emergency command center was set up in front of the Sterling Heights police headquarters on Dodge Park to coordinate the work among local, county and state officials, he added.

Similar plans were implemented by other communities throughout Metro Detroit.

-- (in@the.news), August 17, 2003.

Go to
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on this forum for more updated info. Email request for
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-- spider (spider0@myway.com), August 22, 2003.