From Russ Kelly's latest What the Experts Think page, it appears that in the opinion of 24 experts y2k will be a 7 out of 10 in severity. The scale is defined in broad terms as

Ranking of problem ranges from 0 for absolutely no concern, to 10 for a belief that the problem is so serious that major worldwide social, economic, and technological disruptions will occur.

but one of the survey participants suggests the following gradations:

1 = annoying minor problems with little to no impact
3 = 1970's level recession, minor utility problems
6 = 1930's level depression, significant utility problems
10 = Gary North (serious global power outages, TEOTWAWKI)

Recent surveys by Triaxis and Yardeni have produced similar results.

Notes:

The survey data is as follows:

8.2
7.4
10
6
7.1
8.5
7.5
7
9
7.2
7
6
8.9
7.25
3
8
2.75
4.5
6
5.8
9.2
8

The high (Gary North=10) and low (Nicholas Zvegintzov=0.8) were discarded. The average is 7.0. Some participants gave a range of possible outcomes. When the extreme was used, the average is 7.2

-- a (a@a.a), May 19, 1999

Answers

I am not a poly as those who read my posts will know, however this particular poll is a bit slanted to the 10 side of the scale... The public reaction is that Y2K is a Ho Hum... Non event, (I can still buy enough beer)

There appears to be a split beteen the GI and DGI camp and the spin is decidely DGI...

Keep your powder dry...Do not shoot till you see the whites of their eyes... (and all that other sort of preperation stuff) Time will tell..Be quiet little ones it is nite, but I promise that the sun WILL rise tomorrow... But that is about all I know

Keep the faith Helium

-- helium (heliumavid@yahoo.com), May 19, 1999.

Give me a break. There are several figures in there that haven't been updated in months (approaching a year in some cases). No spin is needed for this; it's ludicrous.

Anyone who would be convinced by something like this wouldn't be convinced by any "spin" from me, so why bother?

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 19, 1999.

It's also worthwhile to read any explanatory text these experts provide with their numbers. When you do, you find that the definition of "major" is pretty nonuniform. To an economist, "major" economic disruption means a big decline in the GDP *growth* rate. That's why someone suggested that a 6 should be equal to a 1930's style depression. A 6 to most of them mapped to about a 2.5 on the Yourdon scale. These experts were definitely grading on a curve, and they all used their own curves.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 19, 1999.

It is also worthwhile to note that a couple of the figures on there are selling Y2K preps - and I am not talking about people selling books or such - I am talking about food and generators and suchlike. They have a right to make a profit, but for that reason cannot be considered to make impartial statements about Y2K potential problems either.

To put it another way - just how much trust do you place in a used car salesman? Do you buy a used car with or without taking it for a test drive? Do you have a mechanic look it over or not? Do you pull the dipstick and see whether or not the oil has been changed? Do you listen to the engine? If you trust the guy - why do you do any of the above? Be skeptical about everyones claims - but more skeptical of the claims of the people with a business whose profit margins are directly impacted by Y2K sales hysteria.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), May 19, 1999.

Paul,

I once bought a car from a guy named "Ace."

Seriously. No kidding. :)

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 20, 1999.

Stephen,

Yourdon is a 7-9 as of May. Average is a 6.9. See Ed Yourdon Shifts Outlook to Include Possible "9"

-- Current (up@to.date), May 20, 1999.

Current,

I've seen that. I also read that article in the Seattle Times where Yourdon agreed that food supplies wouldn't be disrupted (except for some imported items).

This survey itself is just a collection of opinions. Several of the people in the poll have been terribly wrong about OTHER Y2K predictions in the recent past, so that tells you how accurate their numbers must be. :)

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 20, 1999.

Any honest expert, like Ed or Cory, will tell you that they don't really know. Any "expert" who says otherwise is a fool or is "spinning" (ie lying through his teeth on orders). An honest answer is a wide range.

Jornalists, and most of the public, hate uncertainty. Hence all these useless attempts at averages, and journalists taking words out of context, and misquotes like substituting "will" for "might". Hence the apparent polarisation between "no problem" and "end is nigh", because mostly only bigots and liars (of either persuasion) are prepared to say anything definite on record.

We won't know until it happens. Prepare for something bad, hope that it's throw-away money thrown away. You ask how bad? I don't know, it depends in any case a lot on your finances and personality. Draw a line that you're least unhappy with, then prepare for that as your worst case.

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), May 20, 1999.