Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, Project Director for the Year 2000 International Security Dimension Projectoffers these thoughts in response to questions I emailed to him about content published on the project's website.

[snips from email]

What we hear from intell agencies and Joint Staff planners is that our material has significantly shaped their approaches to framing the problem. As such, we felt it was essential to make our contributions transparent to the public. Unfortunately, columnist Jack Anderson has already identified me as leading a "secret US government plan" to prep the military for quelling public disturbances in the US. Bottom line: you are open and people will do their best to distort your effort, but such is the phenomenon of Y2K and the millennial events.

As for identifying elites, I use the term very broadly in our work. Much as with our definition of what constitutes robustness in a country, where we view this issue not just in terms of networks (as so many Y2K experts do), but also in terms of politics, economics, and social response, our definition of elites would naturally cover these four broad areas. So an elite of note WRT Y2K would be anyone in a key decision-making or opinion-shape position in the world of networks (i.e., anything that moves anything), business (especially financial players, who view Y2K with a very particular perspective--see our recent postings at our web site), politics, and social organizations (to include religion, mass media, etc.). One key thing that defines our work, and thus explains the broad approach we favor, is that we're looking at Y2K as something different from everyday reality only in degree--not in kind. In short, Y2K is not the once-in-forever event, but a crystalizing experience that reveals much to us about the future of our interconnected world (networks), our New Economy (business), our post-Cold War power relationships (politics), and our post-industrial culture (social response). That's why, to us both speed-bump and TEOTWAWKI are asinine. Y2K is nothing more than a concentrated version of life as we know it (a classic definition of a crisis). Some will do well. Some will do very poorly. Some will learn. Some will ignore.

But much will be revealed.

Funny thing I always note about predictions on Y2K: no one ever predicts disaster for anything they love, respect, or admire--only for things they dislike, hate, or fear. What does that tell us?

The future is transparency, love it or leave it.

[/snips]

Critt

-- Critt Jarvis (middleground@critt.com), May 19, 1999

Answers

Critt,

Thank you for the eliciting a response from the doctor and posting it. Though I was disturbed by some of the content on their website I am actually pleased that there ARE thinktanks working on this.

-- Kristi (securx@Succeed.Net), May 19, 1999.

Funny thing I always note about predictions on Y2K: no one ever predicts disaster for anything they love, respect, or admire--only for things they dislike, hate, or fear. What does that tell us?

Interesting observation. But, if true, does that indicate that Doomers are all malcontents, or that Pollys are blinded by their love of the status quo?

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), May 19, 1999.

*W *O *W !!! Thanks Crit!!!! WHOOOEEE!

THe next large question is, can he back up the observation with anything like numbers? That closing is fairly powerfully interesting.


I am ALSO interested in the definition of Elites, as it's a slightly different one than I have seen used in things of this type. I Do like the differences, though.

chuck

-- chuck, a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), May 19, 1999.

"That's why, to us both speed-bump and TEOTWAWKI are asinine."

This quote describes the position of most of the so-called pollys.

-- Buddy (.@...), May 19, 1999.

and lots of the so-called doomers.

-- humpty (no.6@thevillage.com), May 19, 1999.

My favorite saying: The truth is always somewhere in the middle.

Taz

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), May 19, 1999.

Thanks Critt,

"Y2K is nothing more than a concentrated version of life as we know it (a classic definition of a crisis). Some will do well. Some will do very poorly. Some will learn. Some will ignore. ... But much will be revealed."

Isn't that what we've been discussing all along? And trying to identify who/what/when/where/how/why?

Buddy,

Maybe by year end we'll all meet in the "middle ground."

What a thought!

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), May 19, 1999.

Diane -

Yes, that "Y2K is nothing more than a concentrated version of life as we know it..." line caught my eye as well. Succinct and profound.

In Dr. Barnett's bio, there's a link to his on-line manuscript, The Emily Updates: A Year in the Life of a Three-Year-Old Battling Cancer. This is a man who knows about crisis...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), May 19, 1999.