I was curious this morning to find some information on y2k in another newspaper in another country. I don't know if some of these stories was picked up in the US news or not. I found this in the Bolivian Times archives, dated April 15, 1999.

Bolivia Not OK for Y2K by Ralph Ossa

Although Bolivias infrastructure is not as reliant on computer technology as more developed nations, it is still not known exactly what effect the turning of the millennial calendar will have on our country. Ralph Ossa talked to representatives of commerce and government to find out what has been done, and what is being done about the most infamous three-character acronym of recent times: Y2K. Computer specialists worldwide have not tired of pointing out that a tiny date-error in the worlds computing systems known as the Y2K bug could have devastating consequences.

The problem is the inability of most computers and embedded chips to process dates beyond December 31, 1999. The majority of computer operating systems and programs in use have six-digit date fields with only two digits for the year (YYMMDD), which represent, for example, December 31, 1999, by 991231. The fundamental problem posed for these systems by the arrival of 2000 is that they have no way of expressing the date past the close of 1999; 000101 will be interpreted by them as January 1, 1900.

This might seem like a minor problem, but according to experts the implications could be catastrophic on a global level. In a largely computer-based world a computers failure could mean the paralysis of important services. Bank accounts could be changed or partially deleted, flight safety could be degraded and telecommunication systems affected. Even hospital apparatus are exposed to the risk of failure.

Most Bolivians do not have time to be worried about the year 2000, said German priest and Presidential Delegate for El Alto Sebastian Obermaier, pointing to the busy work-day of an El Alto resident.

Indeed, most people asked on the street either did not know of the Y2K issue at all or were confident that the problem will be solved on time. One Aymara man had heard of the problem but believed that everything will be normal. A bank worker also supposed that his bank already took the respective precautions. Admitting that he does not know much about Y2K, a retired man did not intend to do anything because he does not use computers.

The Y2K problem in Bolivia cannot be compared to the Y2K problem in developed countries. Due to the countrys low level in computing technologies, Bolivia is not exposed to the same risks as are North American and European countries. Bolivia is a very small country, as far as computers go, and thus we have better chances to tackle the problem successfully, said Rosario Barrios, the National Coordinator of the Y2K problem.

Her position is backed up by Armando Gonzales, who is in charge of the network systems in the Ministry of Sustainable Development and Planning. According to Gonzales, Bolivias level of computer technology is still low and the economy is not yet organized in networks comparable to those of companies in developed countries. He said that if the systems of one company have problems [because of the Y2K], this does not necessarily imply that other companies will also be affected.

However, Jorge Quevedo, chairman of IBM-Bolivia, foresaw a potential dilemma that could be produced by communication between businesses. He said, [Bolivian] companies do not work as isolated entities, but...as entities that are intercommunicating with other national or foreign enterprises. This means that if one business is not prepared for the year 2000, others will be necessarily affected, too.

Nilo Pablo Castaqo, a colleague of Gonzales in the Ministry of Sustainable Development and Planning, added that Bolivians only recently started to invest in computer systems. According to Castaqo, most computers in Bolivia are of a newer generation and therefore not so difficult to update.

However, no one denied the Y2K risks to which Bolivia is exposed, nor that much remains to be done.

According to Barrios, Bolivia started organizing a plan to confront the Y2K issue in July 1998. Initiated by the Ministry of Sustainable Development and Planning, the Council of Ministers established an informal committee that was authorized in January 1999 by Supreme Decree as the National Emergency Committee for Y2K. This assembly is now officially in charge of the coordination of the Y2K problem nationwide.

National Y2K coordinator Barrios said that in July 1998 information on the state of preparation for Y2K was available from half of all government entities. Barrios said, With this information we went to the first Latin American forum on Y2K in Colombia. There we saw that, at that time, many people...didn't know anything about the problem.

She explained that the committee tried to disseminate information, especially to the superintendencies, since they supervise and regularize basic services. According to Barrios, they started to contact the regulators frequently and tried to get information on the update of their states of preparation. She said that only then did the Superintendency of Telecommunications (SITTEL), the Superintendency of Banks and Financial Institutions (SBEF) and the Superintendency of Insurance and Reinsurance (SISR) advance. Referring to the financial sector Barrios found it to be quite well prepared, but a little late. Acalinovic was also content with the development in the banking systems and found the measures taken to be fairly appropriate.

In August 1997 the SBEF launched a program to avoid problems in the banking sector. As of September 30, 1997, all financial institutions had to present a schedule of their plans to tackle the Y2K problem, but only 80 percent of the institutions presented a document on time. As of June 30, 1998, the banks were supposed to present their results to the SBEF.

Since only a few institutions could demonstrate success, an internal committee was established at the SBEF to provide the banks with information, and the process was supervised in a stricter way. For example, the banks' boards of directors were forced to discuss the Y2K problem as a measure taken by the SBEF to emphasize the importance of this issue. After March 31 all banks had to send a report on their state of preparation to the SBEF which had to be approved by an independent consultant. The information on the results is not yet available to the public, but insiders estimate that some banks need more time for their preparations.

Apart from a small delay, Barrios was also fairly content with the development in telecommunications. The SITTEL assured her that they are seriously attempting to tackle the Y2K problem, she said, and ENTEL, the most important provider in this field, is also working on this issue. Juan Lesn, company spokesman, explained that ENTEL only started to truly invest in computer systems after its privatization in 1995, and according to him, the new systems are at the moment being updated by IBM.

Despite the successful work of the Y2K National Emergency Committee and the superintendencies that regulate finance and telecommunication, Barrios said, Sadly, the other superintendencies did not do much. According to her, the Superintendency of Water (SIA) is not yet well enough prepared, and the Superintendency of Electricity (SIE) just started to work on the Y2K problem. Explaining that the Superintendency of Transportation (SIT) has not done anything, she said, We're very worried about this. The service providers, however, said they were prepared. A technician of communication systems at Lloyd Aereo Boliviano airlines said the airline is working on it and is confident they will be ready on time. An employee at Aguas del Illimani, which distributes water, said they are taking adequate measures as well. ElectroPaz said the same.

Another sector we are a little worried about is health, Barrios said. I know they haven't done anything, and we're establishing a strategy to be able to help. According to her,it is not the administrative part that is endangered but the apparati, like respirators, incubators and dialysis machines. We're trying to contact the suppliers.... They have to have a solution, she said.

According to IBM-Bolivia chairman Quevedo, the updating of computers and computer-based systems is expensive and time-consuming, [rather] than difficult. The US Gartner Group, a market analysis organization, estimates that worldwide costs to combat the Y2K bug could approach US$600 billion. For older computers, hardware and software have to be adjusted, but for newer models a software update is sufficient.

Rather than replacing or updating parts of the system, a Bolivian expert in data systems, Gonzalo Riveros, said he has found a much simpler solution. According to Riveros, every 28th year has exactly the same calendar, as far as dates and days are concerned. Consequently the calendars of 1916, 1944, 1972 and 2000 are identical. According to Riveros theory, it is sufficient to re-program a computer back to one of these years to avoid any problems, as the year 2000 will be perfectly simulated. Then the computer user will have 28 more years to think of a permanent solution.

For Barrios it is difficult to predict whether Bolivia will have problems on January 1, 2000. It's possible, but hard to say...and we are obviously late, she said. If the respective measures are not taken, New Years Day could become a catastrophe, but we dont believe that itll go so far, she said. We've never had such a problem before, and nobody knows what will happen. The only thing we can try is to prevent as much as possible, Barrios said.

Quevedo also found the real consequences to be unpredictable. Some companies are seriously attempting to tackle the Y2K issue, but a problem could still occur that was not taken into account, he said.

*Although infastructure failure in Boliva, as an isolated incident, may not directly effect us here in the USA, how many "Bolivas" will it take until it does?

*If as stated, the Superintendency of Transportation (SIT)in Boliva hasn't started any y2k plan as of April 15, 1999, one could possibly guess not to many US airlines would feel to comfortable flying into those airports after the first of next year.

-- Lilly (homesteader145@yahoo.com), May 18, 1999

Answers

Excellent post, Lilly!

I don't know if we import anything other than cocaine from Bolivia, but it's pretty obvious that they won't have the problem under control by the end of the year. Perhaps they don't have as far to fall as some more-developed countries, but that isn't much comfort.

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), May 18, 1999.

Tin came immediately to mind.

X-URL: http://aw.wk.or.at/awo/thema/whis/AWSTATE/BOAHAT.HTM

Bolivian exports:

1996, in 1000's of dollars: Food and live animals - 3 988 Crude materials, inedible, except fuels - 655

Chemicals and related products - 9

Manufactured goods, chiefly by material - 661 Machinery and transport equipment - 8 Misc. manufactured articles - 188

Total: 5 512

Source: UNO/Comtrade, ) WKOe/WHIS

Please also consider US exports to Bolivia. If there is any interruption in trade, the result will be lost jobs and income.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), May 18, 1999.

While the USA may not have tremendous trade with Bolivia, we do import some materials (tin comes to mind) that we would have to find alternate sources for. Our exports would also be cut back by the failure of their economy. For some, the impact would be significant.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), May 18, 1999.

Tin isn't considered a strategic metal, is it? Didn't we quit making "tin cans" about 30 years ago?

I'm not asking anybody to look up something I can't find out for myself, but if you know off the top of your head, is this a big deal?

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), May 18, 1999.