Where are Shmuel, Infomagic, and the like...I would love to hear one of them about now. My personal perceptions about what will occur this year are not important. They are only 1 opinion of so many. However, I have been a visitor on this forum for about 6 months...and I might say..more times than I care to admit. I find it fascinating, insightful, and hopefully, truthful. I don't understand the ridicule from some of the DGI's. Were they to be honest.....but they speak from fear, and don't want bad things to happen. Understandable, but not honest..because of weighing things...I have a prediction... Stock Market burst in October...of historic proportions Run on the banks...before or after crash..not sure Y2K fears escalate things as we near 2000..then..who knows? To me..."PANIC WILL ENSUE LONG BEFORE THE DATE ARRIVES!!!!!"..and it's not all gonna be because of Y2K....

-- rick shade (Rickoshade@aol.com), May 17, 1999

Answers

I disagree. This is pure speculation on my part but I think that the current PR campaign has been quite effective. I doubt there will be much panic at all unless a real, significant event (large loss of life or other?) occurs that is clearly and unmistakeably linked to Y2K.

Besides, it's pretty much too late for any proactive 'panic'. At this point, whatever mass behavior we see will be reactive and ugly.

If those who come down on the 'no big problem' side are correct, then this situation is arguably for the best - i.e. it offers the least amount of disruption in our day-to-day lives. Unfortunately, if they are wrong, things will be far worse than they needed to be. Pascal's wager.

Only an insignificant portion of the population will have taken any steps at all to survive disruption of basic services. Should any significant disruptions materialize, those that haven't bothered to make preparations could very well panic. They will say that they've been lied to, that they were mislead. The targets of such anger will be many.

Perhaps even more ominous, there are a thousand lunatic elements (both in and out of governments) waiting in the wings who would use such a chaos to further their own agenda.

But I like hot showers, airplanes, computer technology, imported food and petroleum. I am no less a product of my culture than millions of those around me. I have no desire to see even minor inconveniences.

Clearly though, we've had sufficient warning and sufficient time to prepare. The only thing lacking was sufficient will to make the hard choices and minimize the risk. For this collective negligence, we may get lucky and have only a little trouble or we may pay dearly. Either way, we will know soon enough.

I think Ed hit the nail on the head last year when he said a small amount of panic at that point would be better than waiting until events unfold. But I hope for a lot of peoples' sake that Ed was wrong. I suspect even Ed is hoping he is wrong.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), May 18, 1999.

The sheeple will not know anything happened until 2010, when still President, Clinton says it happened.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), May 18, 1999.

I agree with Arnie.

I also believe we have enough general awareness and cooperative resolve at all levels of government, business, and "we-the-people" to responsibly address wildfire issues requiring containment.

Land Ho! Middle Ground's in sight.

Critt

-- Critt Jarvis (middleground@critt.com), May 18, 1999.

Arnie, I agree with you and Critt, except I would very respectfully and slightly disagree on one of your points, Arnie:

"I doubt there will be much panic at all unless a real, significant event (large loss of life or other?) occurs that is clearly and unmistakeably linked to Y2K."

True, if Y2k were the only worry on the horizon. However, I think contemporary serious events are happening so quickly and so frequently (very much as Toffler decribed in Third Wave about 20 years ago), people are overloaded--their disk drives are full. There really isn't any room left to think clearly; there are grinding sounds and little gray boxes with blue and mauve bits in them to designate inaccessible links and graphics.

I fear there is a chance of isolated incident(s) not as serious as large loss of life and unconnected to Y2K which will spark some sort of civil disorder, not necessarily a violent riot. If, as fall arrives, there are increasing reports of looming problems vis a vis Y2K, then, yes, I think you can say any disorder will be Y2K-connected. but there also will be some influence from the daily crises pounding our perceptions.

I keep thinking about Dickens' lines for Sidney Carton, written in 1859 (A Tale of Two Cities): "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times." Let's hope many of us and many others can later use Dickens' words again: "It is a far, far better thing that I do than I have ever done." But, not I hope, before a guillotining! Dickens really was a good social commentator!

Y2K or not, it is PRUDENT to stash some supplies in case there IS a civil problem, so we do not have to venture out for a few days. Sorry to be gloomy, but if you acknowledge the possibility and prepare for it (as best you can), it's not so frightening.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), May 18, 1999.

I'm afraid I agree with Rick. The people have already been programmed to run to the ATM and the gas station on New Year's Eve. Well, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that not everybody can get in line that evening. In the remote event that people stayed complacent long enough to wait that long, panic would ensue among the folks who were 200th in line at the ATM.

Having to choose between Y2K effects, or Y2K effects and a pre-panic, the government would choose (and probably has chosen) to prevent a panic if at all possible. But it's already too late for that because of the stupid three-day storm advice they have given.

Given the Y2K disaster movies set for release this fall, and the probability that some noticeable Y2K effects may be felt going into the century turnover, the public will begin to wake up. All it will take is a single report of a bank run, true or not. Think about it. What will you do if you hear such a report? You'd head to the bank. So will everyone else and the SHTF. It's just a matter of when.

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), May 18, 1999.

Critt;

Isn't the Middle Ground about 60nm East of New Foundland. Still pretty deep waters!

Charon, it will be so good to see you.

-- Charon (Thatplace@downbelow.com), May 18, 1999.