* * * 19990516 Sunday

Rick,

I've been invited as a guest on the WTVS-PBS (Detroit) show, "Back to Back," Tuesday, May 25, 1999 ( 5:30pm-6:00pm ), opposite ( Con- ) a ( pro-"everythings going to be alright" ) Michigan State Police Emergency Management Division, Y2K Project.

I'm not _that_ concerned about ( larger ) power _plant_ control and/or business systems that can be rolled ahead, tested, or remain running past a system date of January 1, 2000. ( That's a virtual no-brainer! )

What I am concerned about are controller components in the field--i.e., switching substations, et al--that _are_ untestable, ( Y2K ) defective, obsolete, vendor-orphaned, vendor's out-of-business or, the vendor has no time left to produce/deliver/install replacements before 01-01-00!

Is there any clear, concise, easy-to-squeese into a rational "sound bite" for this ( commercial-free ) call-in show?!

Any assistance would be greatly appreciated!

TIA and Regards, Bob Mangus

< rmangus@hotmail.com > * * *

-- Anonymous, May 16, 1999

Answers

Robert,

>What I am concerned about are controller components in the field--i.e., switching substations, et al--that _are_ untestable, ( Y2K ) defective, obsolete, vendor-orphaned, vendor's out-of-business or, the vendor has no time left to produce/deliver/install replacements before 01-01-00!

I have done inventory and tested the devices you mention above. Of over 6000 devices, in the order of 100 were "date-aware". Another 1/3 of these were not mission critical (would not put lights out, or cause an operator to improperly manually trip). At 95-99% completed with mission critical devices, NONE failed in an operational manner. (cosmetic errors on LCD readouts, improper date stamp of sequence of events etc). Others here have found similar results. EPRI participating utilities share any failures, and none beyond the type I mentioned have been found by ANY utility on the devices and applications you mention. The tests involve rolling the device's date forward to test proper operation for MANY dates. Some utilities have left the substation devices operating in 2000 similar to the power stations.

What will happen? A nationwide yard sale on "like new" one owner generators. Traditional pork and sauerkraut New Years eve dinner will be replace by vienna sausage and rice. (good sound bite!)

-- Anonymous, May 17, 1999

Robert, I'm not sure there is a good sound bite for what you're asking, but the main risks to the electrical grid are expressed quite well by Dr. Ragaller in the ABB article on this site. Multiple little simultaneous problems can ripple into large consequences.

In all industry areas, expecting that a rushed national infrastructure repair effort for critical systems only, requiring complete timeliness and competence from hundreds of thousands of human beings for everything to go off without a hitch, is way outside of what I know about the human race. That doesn't even happen in the movies! In my view, Y2K is as much a human nature problem as it is a computer problem. If humans were so smart, we wouldn't be talking about any Y2K fixes to begin with. We just hate to admit to the possibility that we may have screwed up big time by ignoring the issue for so long.

Ask the Michigan State Police Emergency Management Division rep about how little it takes for a stressful, rushed situation to get out of hand. Then ask him if he thinks all the managers and programmers and technicians haven't made any mistakes or errors of omission in their Y2K efforts.

-- Anonymous, May 17, 1999

In all industry areas, expecting that a rushed national infrastructure repair effort for critical systems only, requiring complete timeliness and competence from hundreds of thousands of human beings for everything to go off without a hitch, is way outside of what I know about the human race.

bonnie,

that was excellent, the best explanation i've seen, you've succinctly explained the problem and our inability to correct it...all that and in '50 words or less.'

-- Anonymous, May 17, 1999

Robert,

Maybe money and power is a good "sound bit". Lots of money is involved in y2k-world. Who are the winners and who are the loosers ?

-- Anonymous, May 18, 1999

Bonnie,

I agree with Marianne. Now that we are down to the wire on getting all the various loose ends wrapped up (mission critical only, in most cases) we are faced with the age old human problem of just not being exact enough in so many areas. Thus, while there can be arguments made about the technical data looking more and more positive, the larger weak links due to human error is sometimes being ignored. To take a viewpoint that everything will be fine and all those portable generators will be useless is more blind faith than logical reasoning. Even the NRC is getting very serious about having all those EDGs tested and ready. Why would they do that if the EDGs have been around for years and not considered mission critical equipment until now? Sounds like the NRC thinks the EDGs are extremely important to have standing by (with 60 days fuel) for the rollover.

-- Anonymous, May 18, 1999

* * * 19990518 Tuesday

Update: Michigan State Police have "backed off" appearing in a "confrontational" (public, face-to-face grilling) forum. WTVS-PBS Detroit has decided to split the 30 minute program into 2, but SEPARATE 15-minute segments! After a conversation with a Michigan State Police contact and attendee to several of my 1998 public iawareness/information forums, his opinion is that the format dictate is probably from "higher ups." Their intellectual and immoral cowards, folks.

Thanks, cl, marrianne, menno, and bonnie, for your salient, helpful opinions and remarks.

More are welcome, too!

Regards, Bob Mangus < rmangus@hotmail.com > * * *

-- Anonymous, May 18, 1999

Hi, Bob--

The army slides do a good job of succinctly summarizing some of the risks with power. Go to GN, here: http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/4427 and click through.

Best wishes, Faith

-- Anonymous, May 18, 1999

The link to the Army's Presentation regarding the power grid is obsolete. I was able to find it at http://cr-iiacfs1.army.mil/army-y2k/cfdocs/Download.cfm

You may need to go through the sites home page at http://cr-iiacfs1.army.mil/army-y2k/default.htm

Kind Regards, Ray

-- Anonymous, May 20, 1999