Y2K Computer Scare Doesn't Bug Bay Area

Chronicle poll finds most blame media hype

Michael Taylor, Chronicle Staff Writer

Friday, May 14, 1999

Who's afraid of Y2K? Not too many around the Bay Area.

A Chronicle poll of Bay Area residents shows that only one in five expects major problems from the year 2000 computer glitch that, some say, could wreak hav- oc when computers' internal date mechanisms fail to roll over correctly on Jan. 1, 2000.

Two-thirds of those polled feel there will be minor problems, while one in 10 thinks there will be no problems. Women are more apprehensive about Y2K than men.

There is little fear that there will be food shortages, but there is a greater concern -- albeit in a minority of those polled -- that Bay Area public transit systems and airports will have widespread disruptions and that gas, electric and phone service will be interrupted.

Nonetheless, nearly three- fourths of the 600 people who were questioned in The Chronicle poll, directed by Cheryl Katz of Baldassare Associates, think the Y2K computer problem has been blown way out of proportion by the media.

``I don't know what the problem is going to be,'' said Morey Quilici, 80, a retired roofer who lives in Novato. Quilici was one of the people polled by The Chronicle. ``Why should there be a problem? It's just another year. What the hell -- we got from last year to this year without a problem. I think we'll get to the next one without a problem.''

That feeling was strongest in Silicon Valley, home of the high-tech industry and, by extension, a place where one would expect informed opinions about the Y2K problem. Some four out of five people in the heart of computer land felt that the Y2K glitch has been exaggerated by newspapers, magazines and television.

Only two weeks ago, most high- tech executives interviewed by The Chronicle said Y2K is not very high on their list of the world's problems.

``I consider (Y2K) a complete ruse promulgated by consulting companies to drum up business,'' said Jim Clark, co-founder of Netscape Communications Corp., Silicon Graphics Inc. and Healtheon Corp. ``I think the problem is way overblown. This is a good example of the press piling on. Y2K is the bogeyman.'`

More than half of Bay Area residents think any problems that do occur will not last more than several weeks.

The poll showed that people in the Bay Area think pretty much the same about Y2K as people around the rest of the country. In most cases, the Bay Area poll figures were within a few percentage points of figures gathered in national polls.

But more people seemed concerned about Y2K when asked about specific problems.

In an area that is somewhat dependent on public transportation, nearly four out of 10 Bay Area people think there will be widespread transportation system problems, and one in three thinks there will be substantial disruptions in telephone, gas and electric service.

At BART, spokesman Ron Rodriguez said, ``We will wind up spending about $5 million over the last several years, either upgrading aging equipment or making existing equipment Y2K compliant. The computers that run the trains are new and are Y2K compliant.''

San Francisco International Airport officials say their systems will be Y2K compliant by the end of June. At San Francisco's Municipal Railway, however, officials say that because Muni vehicles depend on many different suppliers of energy and parts, ``we can't say 100 percent'' that the trolleys or other vehicles will be running.

Younger people, it turns out, are more fearful than their elders about Y2K, and North Bay residents have more qualms about Y2K than people who live anywhere else in the Bay Area.

A major difference between the Bay Area and the rest of the nation, however, is that while only one in nine U.S. residents is stockpiling extra food, water and other emergency supplies for any Y2K-related disaster, one in four in the Bay Area is stocking up. One explanation for the difference is that many Bay Area residents say they have been stockpiling supplies for future earthquakes.

``As the son of someone who grew up during the Depression, I've always had basic staples, like rice and canned goods,'' said Barry Brinkley, a 52-year-old public health administrator who lives in Berkeley. ``We're not dependent on a grocery store.'' Brinkley said he lives in a condominium where the residents association has stockpiled enough cases of bottled water ``to last each unit five days.''

Brinkley said that on the whole, he does not ``expect problems with the utilities or the banks. Whatever adjustments are needed will be made between now and then.''

As for Quilici, the Novato retiree, the problems of Y2K seem petty when viewed through the prism of 20th century history.

``What can they do? Banks closing? Problems with groceries? I put 4 1/2 years in the South Pacific during the war, and we got by on hardly nothing. We'll get through this one.''

-- Norm (nwo@hotmail.com), May 14, 1999

Answers

"Chronicle poll finds most blame media hype"

That darn media! If they'd just stop talking about that y2k thing, then everything would be fine.

``Why should there be a problem? It's just another year. What the hell -- we got from last year to this year without a problem. I think we'll get to the next one without a problem.''

Is this the pollyanna mentality?

Fuck you Norm.

-- a (a@a.a), May 14, 1999.

That feeling was strongest in Silicon Valley, home of the high-tech industry and, by extension, a place where one would expect informed opinions about the Y2K problem. Some four out of five people in the heart of computer land felt that the Y2K glitch has been exaggerated by newspapers, magazines and television.

Only two weeks ago, most high- tech executives interviewed by The Chronicle said Y2K is not very high on their list of the world's problems.

Telling comments. The radical doom brood may not appreciate this one!

-- Helen Wheels (helen@wheel.s), May 14, 1999.

So, Y2K will not be a problem. I agree with that.
It's just the lack of water, food, power, transportation ... that could be a problem. :)

-- A (A@AisA.com), May 14, 1999.

I wish they'd published a full table of results, rather than this op-ed piece with two interviewees who say, "No biggie", and a chart using such clear terms as "minor problems". This whole article just seems disconnected and poorly thought-out:

66% - "minor problems"

10% - "no problems"

40% - "widespread transportation problems"

33% - "substantial disruptions in telephone, gas and electric"

75% - "Y2K blown out of proportion"

Doesn't mesh very well. For example, does this mean that some percentage of the respondents consider "widespread transportation problems" to be "minor"? Or that "substantial disruptions in telephone, gas and electric" have been "blown out of proportion" by the media?

Seems like a poorly-worded survey, especially if they didn't define "major" and "minor".

Reminiscent of the poll results reported by Dave Barry earlier this year:

The American public is still deeply divided, according to a recent Gallup Poll showing that:

72 percent of the public agrees with the statement ``President Clinton has been punished enough.''

71 percent of the public agrees with the statement ``President Clinton has not been punished enough.''

73 percent of the public agrees with the statement ``The Grand Canyon was created by a race of fierce, prune-eating hamsters from space.''

These poll results remind us, as if we needed reminding, that the public cannot be trusted to decide any issue more complex than ``eat in'' vs. ``take out.''

8-}]

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), May 14, 1999.

Speaking as one who lives here ... yes ... its pretty Y2K all quiet on the Western front.

At least ... in front of the local press.

Patience.

Californians will start paying attention again after the weather turns, long about October/November.

Diane

See thread (and the disconnect at) ...

Most Silicon Valley High-Tech Execs Not Bugged By Y2K Fears And Won't Take Major Steps To Prepare

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 000oG9

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), May 14, 1999.

Norm,

"More than half of Bay Area residents think any problems that do occur will not last more than several weeks."

I think I will win the Lottery??? Doesn't mean much.

I work in the Bay Area as a Kitchen Cabinet Refinishing Contractor, for conversation I ask most of my customers if they know anything about Y2K. Most say something like, "The government wouldn't be that stupid as to allow a computer failure to ruin the economy." One said, "If Y2K and WAR come all this work I'm doing on my Kitchen will be meaningless."

Usually the conversation starts over a radio ad on Y2K and I don't push anything I just ask them what they think.

It doesn't matter what you or I "think". If the situation is as bad as the computer experts are saying then perhaps it would be wise to, at least, hedge your bet and prepare...Y2K, earthquake, tornado, hurricane, flood, stock market crash, sky falling, WAR, take your pick and get yourself a good weapon and some food and stop being a SILLY!

-- Mark Hillyard (foster@inreach.com), May 14, 1999.

I wonder if the are still using some of the Z80 controls in manufacturing. Lots 3 years ago.

-- && (&&@&&.&), May 14, 1999.

Helen,

Re: "That feeling was strongest in Silicon Valley, home of the high-tech industry and, by extension, a place where one would expect informed opinions about the Y2K problem. Some four out of five people in the heart of computer land felt that the Y2K glitch has been exaggerated by newspapers, magazines and television."

>Telling comments. The radical doom brood may not appreciate this one!

Keep in mind, though, that Silicon Valley is PC-oriented, and at least some of the "radical doom brood" (notably, Cory Hamasaki) recognizes that the heart of the Y2K problem is in the mainframes, the Big Iron machines that predate the PeeCees.

-- No Spam Please (No_Spam_Please@anon_ymous.com), May 15, 1999.

From a previous thread:_

Rob Morse writes for the Chronicle (or maybe the examiner), and he constantly takes the mickey out of the y2k-aware.

Pretty sad that he would do this but it doesn't surprise me at all. Ignorance and stupidy and greed are rife in Silicon Valley.

Why am I not surprised at these maroons that have never worked in the real world (or out of the USA for that matter) in their lives. The stupidity of these folks (and I know what I'm talking about as I worked in the valley with these simpleton know-nothings for six years) is truly awesome to behold.

Same goes for the VAST majority in SV- all sucked in by the greed and stock options and beemers a la carte - boy they are gonna come down HARD next year.

And it's a real shame as I have a bunch of otherwise extremely intelligent, gifted friends still working out there for the almighty greenback - totally oblivious to what is going down (and yes, I had many late night talks with them, to no avail).

What is wrong with people???????

Glad I'm not in CA anymore - population far too big, especially in LA, no water - it will be a nightmare.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 15, 1999.