Where are you, in May, 1999 on Y2K impacts on the 1 to 10 scale, but with this alteration:

1. By or on Dec. 15, 1999 (separately for U.S., world)

2. By Jan. 15, 1999 (separately for U.S., world)

3. By April 1, 2000 (separately for U.S., world)

4. By Jan. 1, 2001 (separately for U.S., world)

That is, on those dates, what will be the then CURRENT impact of Y2K on people (not cumulative but effect being felt on the date requested). A "0" means "no effect" or "effects over".

For example, for number 2, these figures: 5, 8 would mean you expect a 5 impact for U.S. by 1/15/2000 and an 8 impact for world.

May be someone could post the 1 to 10 scale again so we have that in common. I'll post my opinions later so there is no influence on others from the top.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 14, 1999

Answers

(Slap to head) Jan. 15, 1999 should read Jan. 15, 2000, OBVIOUSLY.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 14, 1999.

This is the scale used by a Washington DC Y2K group:

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1 Local impact for some enterprises

2 Significant impact for many enterprises

3 Significant market adjustment (20%+ drop); some bankruptcies

4 Economic slowdown; rise in unemployment; isolated social incidents

5 Mild recession; isolated supply/infrastructure problems; runs on banks

6 Strong recession; local social disruptions; many bankruptcies

7 Political crises; regional supply/infrastructure problems and social disruptions

8 Depression; infrastructure crippled; markets collapse; local martial law

9 Supply/infrastructure collapse; widespread social disruptions and martial law

10 Collapse of U.S. government; possible famine

[NOTE: "social incidents" and "disruptions" have to do with demonstrations, work stoppages, strikes, organized vandalism, looting, and riots]

[NOTE: "supply/infrastructure problems" have to do with food shortages, fuel/heating oil shortages, disruptions in public utilities (power, gas, telecom), disruptions in transportation (airlines, trucking), and so on.]

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-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), May 14, 1999.

1. 4,3

2. 7,8

3. 8,10

4. 9,10

The U.S. is worse in 12/99 than the rest of the world, because the Y2K panic hits harder here (Italians are still oblivious as they plan Jubilee).

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), May 14, 1999.

1. By 12/15/1999 I would say 2, 4 2. By 1/15/2000 I would say 7, 9 3. By 3/1/2000 I would say 8 , 9.5 4. By 1/1/2001 I would say 8-8.5,9-9.5 and finally I would expect the US to return to "pre-y2k" conditions by about 2010, and the third world by 2025 - 2050 or so, if at all...

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), May 14, 1999.

Gosh, folks. Tough question every time. I'm a 3 before the year turn's over and don't think I get over 7 at any point. I will be fully prepared for higher.

-- Dave "Cornell" (dbc100@cornell.edu), May 14, 1999.

1. 3,4 (overseas money flowing to $ from countries behind us worsens things for overseas economies in comparison to US, UK & Canada) 2. 5,7 (two weeks into the collapse of infrastructure - many people and governments have prepared for this period) 3. 7,8 (too many things aren't fixed) 4. 8,8 (I never wanted to live in the great depression)

-- noel (ngoyette@csc.com), May 14, 1999.

Big Dog...here is how I see it in my part of the world (North Central Florida)

1. Stock mkt going to hell with massive selloffs with people like me just not taking a chance and figuring I can by in at a lower price later. Lots of people taking their money out of bank but no riots yet. Grocery stores really having to scramble with their JIT system and lots of things in short supply. Gas prices up and people sweating the supply. Gov't very vocal about "all is well, not to panic".

1a. Bank runs in Japan, the UK pretty much the same as US, 3rd world still unaware.Eastern Europe a mess.

2. People really getting pissed off as there have been regulations come down re cash withdrawls; mkt continues to head south and has had days of suspended trading. More shortages as it begins to finally sink in that their life style (which is pretty affluent and spent at the country club/golf course) is going to change as they see their investments, etc., erode away or become inaccessible. Our area will increase in population over the usual "snow birds". I expect to see tents, campers, etc all over our forest. as people in the north flee the cold. We will see some efforts from the gov't, but not a lot here due to lower density of population and lack of cold. Gov'....t as in NG and FEMA will be mostly in the large cities. Handing out food and water and trying to get the raw sewage in the streets under control.

2a More of the same, some riots, etc in Asia, news of starving and freezing to death of thousands in Russia and eastern Europe.

3. People are starting to get organized within their own family groups and coming to grips with the situation and pooling resources, labor, money, etc. Grocery stores are no longer concerned with all the "frilly stuff." Forget the frozen pies, garlic bread, etc. They will be selling corn meal, flour, beans, rice, shortening, lard, baking powder, yeast, baking soda, powdered milk, etc in bulk size units. Water will be the number one item and will be right up front just like when a hurricane heads our way. Briqettes, propane gas will be in great demand. Fights from frustration with everything will become common. Word will be on the street that the last place you want to be is the hospital. People will be staying out of sight as much as possible, reminiscent of the polio epidemics. Rumors will run rampent re plague, riots, etc. Many who could work will choose to stay home with family and keep a low profile. Some looting will begin. There will be lots of rioting in the large cities. Primarily because of frustration and anger of having to stand in a line for basic life support. Lots of purse snatching, burning, gangs forming, etc. General rage will be the emotion of the day. Cops and firemen will be stoned, shot, etc. NG and Army will have to bring in the big guns and tanks to finally get some control. But the support will only be there for the very large cities. Cities that are under a million will have little or no support from gov't and military by this time. Desertions in Army and NG will be common. Hoodlums will control the streets while everyone else hides behind closed doors. Small towns in farming areas will have gotten their acts together to support themselves and even make a few bucks. Communications, except for some gov't stations, will be pretty well nil. Rumors will rule.

3a. We won't really know and will certainly not even care about other countries. We will be too involved in our own survival...own meaning immediate family.

4. Cities will be gutted, civil service will be so disrupted as to be non existent, many will have died from savagery and exposure. There will have been mass immigrations to the southern tiers of the country and for those who have anything left, they will be going rural, especially if they have family on a farm somewhere. It will begin to sink in that this is not going to ever"go back to normal". People will begin to dig their way out and build a life once more, many of which will be in some type of gov't camps and others in "Hooverville" villages or camps. Organization for the good of all in the camps will begin to take place and people will begin to provide basics for themselves as well as they can. Gov't will now be providing hand tools and seed." Community" will be seen as their only mens of survivial and small groups will begin "circling the wagons" and utilizing their skills including protection of their group. Protection will include armed guards, community rules and regulations, such as not contaminating water supply, using latrines, keeping your hands off property of others and respecting space of others in the group.

4a..No one will care unless they have family abroad.

Wow!!!!! this has really been an excercise for me. I REALLY DIDN'T KNOW I THOUGHT THIS NEGATIVELY UNTIL I HAD TO WRITE IT DOWN. Jeez! I have become another Gary North and didn't recognize it. I gotta buy more beans and TVP and can more meat and expand my garden and talk more with the neighbors. I have scared the hell out of myself!!

Have nightmares???

Taz

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), May 14, 1999.

I would add to Category 6 the phrase, "many local supply/infrastructure problems".

As for estimating outcomes -- I have to plead "insufficient data."

The crystal ball in my house is full of fog.

August and September have been the months of choice this century for starting major wars.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), May 14, 1999.

1. 0-0

2. 6-8*

3. 3-5

4. 1-3

*Although I really wouldn't expect the 6-8 scenario until latter January or early Feb.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 14, 1999.

1. By ( OR before ) Dec. 15th 1999, the Japanese banks will have cashed in ALL U.S. Treasures in an attempt to remain solvent. The run on treasures in Japan will spread to Europe, and by the time YOU wake up on that fall morning, the die will be cast.If the stock market hasn't crashed totally by then , IT WILL ! As we are the largest debtor nation in the world, it will be quite apparent to the world AND our people, the long era of living on credit is over. Banks already in trouble with normal problems AND Y2K, will call all loans and the feds will try the same. However, as the government has no cash flow to placate the "masses" ( Social Security. welfare, etc. ), inner city problems will erupt on a massive scale. Troops will be called home en mass, as we can no longer support same in the field. As troops, politicians see no paychecks in their future, and the public sees the massive bureaucracy stumble, Congress in gridlock, they will read the handwriting on the wall and stop sending in taxes, paying credit card debt, taking ALL money out of banks , collapasing same with any hope of a new start up . No paychecks, NO WORK !! Troops come HOME to stand with family , including NG. Russia/China see chance to win , LAUNCH. For years after, as we dig our way through life as farmers, people will be saying, " I wonder if the computers really would have brought us down, like so many thought ?" As far as 2,3 and 4 are concerned, they really won't matter now, WILL THEY ? Eagle

-- Hal (e999eagle@freewwweb.com), May 14, 1999.

Hal

I didn't know anybody could be gloomier than Milne. Congratulations.

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), May 14, 1999.

B.D.: this is my conservative scenario.

1. 0,0 noticable - any problems will be covered as long as possible.

2. 4-5,7, but a 3 to 4 in third world countries due to lower dependence on automation in daily life.

3. 6,8, but a 4.5 to 5 in third world countries

4. 8, 8 to 10, but again a 4.5 to 5 in third world countries

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 14, 1999.

Hey BD, when I saw this question under "New Answers", I surmised Mr. Decker had asked it! Just yankin' your tail a little. ;-)

1. By or on Dec. 15, 1999 (separately for U.S., world)

1, 1

2. By Jan. 15, 1999 (separately for U.S., world)

3-4, 5

3. By April 1, 2000 (separately for U.S., world)

5-6, 7

4. By Jan. 1, 2001 (separately for U.S., world)

6-7, 8

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), May 14, 1999.

1. By Dec. 15, 1999: 2, 3

2. By Jan. 15, 2000: 5, 7

3. By April 1, 2000: 7, 9

4. By January 1, 2001: 8, 9

Arlin, I think your points about third-world are very interesting.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 14, 1999.

I think that Arlin's perspective on this is a very likely outcome...and, I believe that the ripple effect (or tidal wave) that we feel from other parts of the world will play a larger role in our ability to recover...this is where the Feds short sightedness in warning the public to better prepare will come back to bite them ...

-- Texas Terri (DeepInTheHeart@Texas.com), May 14, 1999.