On a scale of one to ten on the y2k scale, what number do think would; a. Cause panic b. cause death of the unprepared? Most experts think y2k will be between a 7 and an 8.

I say 5= panic and 8= death to a portion of the unprepared.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), May 12, 1999

Answers

Panic, even a 4 would probably do it. I expect somewhere around an 8, but not immedieately on rollover unless we get nuked ( a rather likely possibility IMHO). But we have deaths from every hurricane and every severe blizzard. I suspect the real issue will be oil imports and the collapse of the overseas supply lines.

-- Tennessean (holladayl@aol.com), May 12, 1999.

When the Titanic fell in the water, another boat came to rescue the people in four hours. But without lifeboats, they were dead when the rescue team arrived.

People will panic in a week without electricity. That would only take a 2 or 3 on the scale. Once they panic, they start killing each other. There's a great explanation of how that happened in Hurricane Andrew in Florida at http://www.drivezero.com/herbal/framee/hcogreve.html

-- Alice Richmond (alicebrown@yahoo.com), May 12, 1999.

Great link Alice.

Eyewitness Account

Several members of my family went thru Andrew and the aftermath. They don't want to go there again. They are preparing for y2k. mb in NC

-- mb (mdbutler@coastalnet.com), May 12, 1999.

"People will panic in a week without electricity."

Since virtually no one outside of the most intransigent doomers believe this is going to happen, why state it? It's like saying "People will panic in a week when the flying saucer lands in N.Y."

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), May 12, 1999.

y2k pro...where were you born? Under a turnip wagon? People WILL PANIC BIG TIME when they are cold, have hungry/thirsty babies, etc. Especially if they are aware that the rest of the world isn't standing by to help them out and that they are on their own. First place, they are going to be ANGRY... having been told that* all was well*. If the grid goes down Jan 1, forget it!!. If JQP can't get up and go have breakfst at McDonalds and pick up chips and beer at the grocerey store and go home and watch the Rose Bowl, he will really be PO big time. Do you have a family? Children of your own? Any preparations? Or are you just one of these guys that has little self worth and gets off by tormenting the rest of us.? Can't you find some other place to go play? Or have they already run you out of those? THIS IS A Y2K GI FORUM. Its not your forum and from what you say, should be of little interest to you. So it must massage your ego to be such an ass.

Taz

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), May 12, 1999.

Tazzie: another "Heavens Gate" GI. Regardless of the facts, you will ignore them. "If the grid goes down Jan 1, forget it!!."

Don't you get tired of trotting out this old morsel? How much more proof do you need that the grid is not going down? Do you still believe there was a spaceship following the Hale-Bopp comet?

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), May 12, 1999.

No, Y2K Pro...you don't get it! I am prepared....either way! Just as I have always managed to save a little, work a lot, have more than one option, in my back pocket, or more than one iron in the fire. I am ready for y2k and I am ready for non y2k. But the bottom line is that this is a y2k forum and you have no interest in Y2K. Your only interest is in hasseling people. I would imagine you have the same problem with people of different colors and lifestyles and religion. Its called by lots of name, my friend. Some of which come to mind are *smallness*, self hatred, low self esteem, and down right meaness. The fact that you have a different opinion is fine. But go find a forum that agrees with you and quit massaging your ego here. We neither ask for or want your opinion. You are not a productive addition to this forum.

Taz

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), May 12, 1999.

Y2kpro, you are such an asshole. Why don't you offer FACTS to back your worthless ass up, rather than just insulting people?? IMHO, It would take a 3 to cause panic, and a 5 to cause deaths(THE MEDICAL INDUSTRY IS WAY BEHIND). I feel that y2k will be at least a 7, and probably an 8 or higher.

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), May 12, 1999.

Every year we go through the spring storms and everybody knows we may loose power. Its a passage of spring. Last year we had bad wind damage and my part of town was severally hit. In my neighborhood the power was out for a week. No one panicked. No one rioted. But we knew that spring storms always happen and the power co. always brings it back on. We won't know that with y2ka. The only thing we will know is that the power co.'s couldn't be for certain that the power would stay on during and after the rollover, so how will we be for certain they will be able to bring it back up? Funny story- when the power went out last year I was in line at Kroger (they were on a different circuit and had power) This overweight lady in line in front of my was talking to everyone about how bad on was on her, it was so terrible she was having to go outside and sit in her car with the air on so she could be comfortable. I think about her all the time.

Y2k PRO You are a despicable vermin who will feel the wrath of GOD ALMIGHTY for the disservice you do here. I spit on you.

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), May 12, 1999.

The people are going to panic whether there is a Y2K effect or not. If they follow government advice, 250 million people are going to be in line at a gas station and an ATM on New Years Eve. Oops, were outta gas, people. No pushing and shoving.

Yeah, right.

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), May 12, 1999.

"We neither ask for or want your opinion. You are not a productive addition to this forum." said Tassie stamping his/her tiny feet

I would beg to differ.

There are people who have come to this forum who have been fooled into believing it is presenting balanced information. It is not.

It is full of small-minded, hillbilly, doofus Crackers such as you. People who would rather dismiss facts with hysterical nonsense about:

The NWO

Clinton enacting Martial Law China and/or the Russians nuking us

Bill Klinton is a secret Chinese agent

Black Helicopters

Concentration camps

Poisonous contrails

Paid government trolls

The Trilateral Commission

The Jewish controlled media AND The grid going offline(to name just a few of the inanities...)

If you lot of fart-catchers can discuss this ad nauseum, then I am entitled to disagree - still a free country - no?

"On January 1, 1999 they will experience many more, and it will be much more difficult to sweep them under the rug. On April 1, 1999 we will all watch anxiously as the governments of Japan and Canada, as well as the state of New York, begin their 1999-2000 fiscal year; at that moment, the speculation about Y2K will end, and we will have tangible evidence of whether governmental computer systems work or not."-- Ed Yourdon

"So, of course I want to see y2k bring down the system, all over the world. I have hoped for this all of my adult life." -- Gary North

-- Y2K pro (2@641.com), May 12, 1999.

It always amazes me at the spectrum of OPINION regarding Year 2000. I believe that ANY number on the scale of one to ten has the capability to cause panic and death, just to what degree, and the circumstances surrounding the so-called number. We could have a "1" on Y2K and if some renegade in a foreign land decides a major US city needs to be a glass parking lot around 01/01/00, panic and death will become a reality.

The key is NOBODY knows what will befall us in 2000. We have lots of OPINIONS, a nebulous mix of facts, lies, predictions, and guesstimations. Only a fool would not prepare for the worst, just in case.

My entire life is put on hold until/if this millenium madness thing blows over because the most important thing to me is the preservation and security of my family. There are so many "luxury and comfort items" I have postponed purchasing this year as a result of my "ass hanging out in the breeze". I will never go back to the way it was. From now on I will be prepared for disaster and emergencies.

And anyone who tells you it is not necessary is a fool.

We are about to embark on a change of lifestyle, like it or not. Our wonderful government is pissing off our neighbor and trading partners on a daily basis. The world economy is in a shambles. It is only a matter of time before our glorious overvalued stock market plummets like a rock due to the outside pressures of the vast economy of the world. I have always been told that "no man is an island". Well no country is an island either. Not in the interconnected world we live in.

I hope Y2K is a non-issue. I hope the Yugoslavia situation is rectified. I hope Russia and China are not too pissed off at us, even though they announced they are forming an alliance. The world is a crazy place. Lots of things can and will happen. Are you prepared for what may come with the dawn???

snoozin' under the kitchen table....

The Dog

-- Dog (desert dog @-sand.com), May 12, 1999.

So the line of logic is that anytime there are problems that cause power outages, then we should have riots? In 1991, Rochester, NY was hit by a ice storm, and much of the city did not have electricity for almost a two week period. But we had no rioting.

Last September a downdraft from a thunderstorm knocked power out for many in the suburbs of Rochester that left them without electricity for a week, but no one rioted.

Evidence is everywhere that the grid will be maintained. Go check out the latest NERC report, Monday in the LA times had a great article that for some reason many won't even acknowledge here. I see the Year2000 rollover as a 4. The scary thing is that while I consider myself a middle of the roader(3 weeks of preps) anyone that doesn't believe a 8 or 9 is completely wrong.

-- Pat (BAMECW@aol.com), May 12, 1999.

"Y2k PRO You are a despicable vermin who will feel the wrath of GOD ALMIGHTY for the disservice you do here. I spit on you. -- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), May 12, 1999.

I hardly call making fun of the pinheads a disservice that deserves being spat upon, besides whose God is going to smite me Johnny-boy? Yours? Mine? The gal up the street? Please be specific...

-- Y2K pro (2@641.com), May 12, 1999.

I'm not gonna spit on you I pity you We will add you to our prayers Hope you find your way y2k pro

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), May 12, 1999.

Pat said:

"The scary thing is that while I consider myself a middle of the roader(3 weeks of preps) anyone that doesn't believe a 8 or 9 is completely wrong. "

Could not have put it better myself.

-- humpty (no.6@thevillage.com), May 12, 1999.

The Rochester example, while instructive, is flawed, for obvious reasons.

I say 4 = panic; 6 = death. Hope I don't see either.

-- regular (zzz@z.z), May 12, 1999.

FLAME AWAY,

You stated "Most experts think y2k will be between a 7 and an 8." Where do you get this information from? And who are these "experts"?

-- ~~~~ (~~~~@~.~), May 12, 1999.

Y2Kpro - it's a matter of the human condition. An unfortunate example of reaction to disruptions is hurricane Mitch. 9000 killed (by the storm) - people panicked. Robbed, looted, pilfered, and mamed and killed others who happened to make it through the hurricane alive.

Yep, I imagine when 5% of electricity goes out,5% of ATM's don't work, 5% of phones are inoperable, 5% of banking systems go belly up, 5% of transportation has problems.......the ever knowledgeable welfare sittin', OJ watchin', drug addicting, portion of the masses will stay calm. Why, they won't become panicked and come rob the grocery stores and dept. stores for blankets, candles, oil lamps, camping stoves,.....naw. People are too smart and civil for that, aren't they? Why, they wouldn't even think of breaking into Pharmacies for all those drugs in there since the 911 system and security alarms would surely be fixed in a few days, now would they?

Heheheheh, I'll bet you live in the city. heheheh. karen

-- karen (karen@karen.karen), May 12, 1999.

karen, he lives in the dang desert. in a remote, highly populated, totally-dependent-on-imported-water city that would go T-up without tourism. can't imagine what's gonna happen to him.....

-- ha (haha@ha.ha), May 12, 1999.

Pat:

A y2k power failure is one that causes riots. This is a given. Any historical power failures, regardless of how serious, that did NOT cause riots, cannot be compared. They didn't cause riots, so they don't count.

By extension, any calamity that was ever recovered from doesn't count for the same reason. y2k cannot be recovered from, so it's different. See how easy this is?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 12, 1999.

karen, he lives in the dang desert. in a remote, highly populated, totally-dependent-on-imported-water city that would go T-up without tourism. can't imagine what's gonna happen to him..... -- ha (haha@ha.ha)
hmmmm sounds like Las Vegas. Wonder what it'll be like in the city of lights.......with no lights , I'm sure it'll be a priority to get the Copa Cabana marquee blazing again.....hehehhe. karen

-- karen (karen@karen.karen), May 12, 1999.

IF the grid goes down on 01/01/2000 and you need to see the Rose Bowl, come to my place. The old Generac will be fired-up, game on the Sony big-screen, warm fire in the fire-place, large supply of beer and munchies, water stored, guns loaded, and THOSE IN NEED WILL NOT BE TURNED AWAY! A friend from church (who also is a GI)said he is looking at this as a tremendous opportunity to spread Gods word and minister to people. It is Gods will that we extend a hand to those in need. I am not at all scared of what is to come because Jesus is my savior!

-- rick (I'mset@home.house), May 12, 1999.

Hmmmm...been about 10 years since I was in Rochester. Have they grown to the size of LA or NYC or Miami so we can make comparisons now? If I were given the choice of sticking it out in Rochester or in East LA I think I'd choose Rochester, cold and all.

The point is we don't know what will happen and we're all hedging our bets. The most obvious starting point (to me, anyway) is the realtor's mantra: location, location, location. I pray every day that Y2K is a non-issue because no matter how much we prepare we have no idea what is going to go haywire.

Jeannie

-- jhollander (hollander@ij.net), May 12, 1999.

Rick:

I'm just a little curious ... roughly how many needy people will you not turn away? Ten? Twenty? Fifty? One hundred? How 'bout a thousand?

Folks, this surely is one of the big moral questions we all may need to deal with soon. I still don't a personal answer ... though I think about it nearly every day.

What say you?

-- Yan (no@no.no), May 12, 1999.

To all who oppose Y2K Pro,

Don't you think you're being a little hard on this person? Looking back over this thread, it seems like Y2K Pro's comments got a really good discussion going. Why do you want to exclude those of us who think y2k will not be the end of the world? Those of us who think you doombrooders are, well, just going over the top on this? What's wrong with taking a moderate position like Y2K Pro has done? I've learned a lot from his/her posts.

-- David M. Haigh (dm_haigh@yahoo.com), May 12, 1999.

There is already some panic and we haven't even hit a 1 on the scale yet.

-- Buddy (.@...), May 12, 1999.

Answer to question. Experts link;

http://www.russkelly.com/experts.html

Average the numbers.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), May 12, 1999.

For Christ's sake, will you Polly's please wake up!!!!!!!!! As for y2kpro, the former head of NERC has just said there maybe major power outages. You find it, you reach it! (Sorry Chuck)

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), May 12, 1999.

David said:
What's wrong with taking a moderate position like Y2K Pro has done?

Boy, do

YOU

not have a clue. Stop sticking up for Y2K Pro. If you get anything from his posts, I'd say you are a newbie, so hang around and get some REAL preparation tips from the truly modest folks (not me, I'm not moderate - a 9 ; still haven't talked myself into building a fallout shelter). I'm a programmer with too much insight as to what potential Y2K has and sees that Y2K Pro knows just enough to be dangerous.
karen

-- karen (karen@karen.karen), May 12, 1999.

Why do people waste a post on Y2KPro??? His immaturity is as striking as his insistence on posting if Y2K is no big deal...

I say a 9 right now, but if we don't have more prepartions from the masses in a jiffy. I go 10.

I can't imagine where you'd put millions of people in the North in January if their pipes freeze and burst or they have physical reactions from not having their meds, beer, drugs, etc. or they are isolated with phones or ill from the shock of being lied to or flooded out if sump pumps fail or starving to death.

If just the postal system fails for a significant time, how do you get checks to your personal suppliers

Some many unanswered questions and not considered scenarios for anything less than a 9.

Economy's great though......

PJC former programmer/analyst

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), May 12, 1999.

Sorry, "RESEARCH" Forgot,,,,, MORON.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), May 12, 1999.

Hey, FLAME, thanks for the link. Verrry interesting to read the reasoning behind what the experts think.

Jeannie

-- jhollander (hollander@ij.net), May 12, 1999.

i think as soon as the electricity fails in any large city the people will riot, regardless of how long it lasts. everyone in the dark will KNOW that it is because of the computers failing, will wake up to realize they may very well die because they didn't stock any food or water, and go looking for some...in any place they think they can find some. first in the grocery stores, then in other peoples homes. in that event, it really wouldn't take much at all for many deaths to occur.

-- sarah (qubr@aol.com), May 13, 1999.

y2k pro is a shill,if he was interested in actual debunking,he would answer the threads specificaly addressed to him rather than just trying to connect anyone who's decided to prepair or pull money from badly non-compliant banks with gary north.note to y2kpro I don't care if Gary North's christian views are nutbag,as a buddhist, I see all christians as a bit nut-bag,so what,that's what tolerance is all about.It's not Gary North's religious motivation that I care about,it's his assesment of y2k,and the way it's not being dealt with.sure I take G.N.'s spin with a grain of salt,I read the article that he's commenting on,and I often agree with his spin,and I don't see how it matters that G.N. wants christians to stone non-christians for a thousand years.what matters is I agree that banks,power,water,and phones will not be finished on time,every deadline has been broken,the budgets keep going up and the smiley faces keep getting bigger.think and assess for yourself,no matter what y2kpro says.....zoob-a-zoob....

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), May 13, 1999.

Yan: I figure the first people at my door will be my DGI neighbors, family members, and co-workers. After that we will keep taking in people until the house is full. Not elbow-to-elbow but cozy. Most of my neighbors have guns so if we need to do some neighborhood patrols we'll be set. I sure hope nothing like this happens though.

-- rick (I'mset@home.house), May 13, 1999.