greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

There have been times in recent days, I really wanted to pin down exactly what a person thought might happen due to Y2K. So, I decided to ask....

1. If the power grid fails, how long and what percentage of the U.S. will be impacted?

2. How many U.S. banks will fail in the year 2000?

3. What percentage of businesses will fail between Jan. 1, 2000, and December 31, 2000?

4. What will the U.S. unemployment rate be on July 1, 2000?

5. How far will the S&P 500 fall (percentage)?

6. How many of the 150 largest MSAs (metropolitan statistical areas) will experience serious rioting or social unrest between Jan. 1, 2000 and March 31, 2000?

7. At what level will the U.S. railroads run as of February 1, 2000 (percentage of capacity)?

8. How much will GDP drop by the end of 2000?

9. How long will it take a traveler to go from New York to Los Angeles on July 1, 2000?

10. How much will a gallon of whole milk, a loaf of white bread and dozen eggs cost on July 1, 2000?

For the sake of those who are really interested in the answers, can we just pretend someone else posted this?

Regards,

-- Mr Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 07, 1999

If any one can answer all ten of his questions will you post 6 of tomorrows lottery numbers. Thanks!

-- && (&&@&&.&), May 07, 1999.

1. If the power grid fails, how long and what percentage of the U.S. will be impacted?

Every bank will be 'impacted'. The system will collapse.

2. How many U.S. banks will fail in the year 2000?

It matters not. Enough will to render the point moot.

3. What percentage of businesses will fail between Jan. 1, 2000, and December 31, 2000?

How many are there?

4. What will the U.S. unemployment rate be on July 1, 2000?

I will be fully employed. I have my livestock to tend, my garden to cultivate and my firewood to cut. Did I need anything else?

5. How far will the S&P 500 fall (percentage)?

Again, irrelevant. It will descend far enough to render the point moot.

6. How many of the 150 largest MSAs (metropolitan statistical areas) will experience serious rioting or social unrest between Jan. 1, 2000 and March 31, 2000?

The rioting will die down as the cities burn and the population stabilizes at a fractional amount. As to the date.... The effects will kick in over a period of time. It will not be a sudden jump off a cliff. It depends on how few people actually did prepare.

7. At what level will the U.S. railroads run as of February 1, 2000 (percentage of capacity)?

A meaningless amount. The date again...see number 6. Oh, and you forgot Aiports, Airlines, Public transportation, shipping, parcel services etc etc.

8. How much will GDP drop by the end of 2000?

Do you think you will be worried about GDP? Food will occupy your thoughs.

9. How long will it take a traveler to go from New York to Los Angeles on July 1, 2000?

What difference will it make? You won't be leaving the detention camp after you are caught looting because you did not prepare. That is if you are not shot on sight.

10. How much will a gallon of whole milk, a loaf of white bread and dozen eggs cost on July 1, 2000?

For me....

Milk: Free. Dairy cows, dontcha know. Bread: Free: We bake our own bread from wheat that we grind, dontcha know. Eggs: Free. Rhode Island Reds, dontcha know.

For you: How much do you got? I like chunks of gold. Make sure you bring a sackful.

Now I have one for you.

If you have not made substantial preparations and it all goes down, even though you did not think it would, how long will you live?

Kinda makes your first ten questions pale, doesn't it?

-- Paul Milne (fedonfo@halifax.com), May 07, 1999.

Uh...yep!

-- . (.@...), May 07, 1999.

Paul,

Well, there's no question where you stand. I appreciate the candor. In response to you, I hope to live many more years regardless of what happens with Y2K. Thanks.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 07, 1999.

Mr. Decker,

Since a number of the folks here have come to the conclusion that you participate merely to bait the forum, perhaps you could prove them wrong by answering your own questions.

Mr. Elbow Grease

-- Elbow Grease (Elbow_Grease@AutoShop.com), May 07, 1999.

Mr. Decker,

I cannot answer any of those questions with any authority. I do not believe that any one person could.

That is why I have this uneasy feeling in my innards.

Regards,

-- Mr Deedah (used2B@unkeeD.B4civility), May 07, 1999.

What a hypocrite...

"In response to you, I hope to live many more years regardless of what happens with Y2K."

I'm all right Jack, screw the rest of you who listened to me...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 07, 1999.

Yup, and still asking I guess... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), May 07, 1999.

Thanks Paul. There are to many people here these days that think this is a place to practice debating skills. Issues are a sideline. If I had the answers to those inane questions I would know what to do. The fact is that I do not know so I have prepared for as many contingencies as possible. To do otherwise is irrational. It may also, as you put it so well, be lethal. There are no guarentees.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), May 07, 1999.

1. First three months - 50%, Second three months - 25%

2. 50%

3. 75%

4. 30%

5. 80%

6. 50

7. 30%

8. 50%

9. If they have a lot of money, only about 6 hours.

10. \$8, \$4, \$5

NO.

-- @ (@@@.@), May 07, 1999.

Mr. Elbow Grease,

For the record, these are "late night" guesses. Your mileage may vary.

There will be a late 1999 correction of the U.S. market, perhaps 10 to 20 percent. The post-correction jitters will depress the holiday buying season and exacerbate Y2K fears. December will be a very crazy month.

Despite this, New Year's Eve will be the biggest party in recent memory.

On Jan 1st, the grid will function, but with some service issues. At least one utility worker will die because a generator was plugged into a residential wiring system. With the lights on, there will a short-lived "relief" rally in January, but it will fade in days as businesses and public agencies struggle with Y2K problems.

Some small independent banks will have problems, but the Federal Reserve will take immediate control and resolve liquidity issues. Some will "fail" eventually, but the true number will not be known until well after 2000, much like the S&L crisis. The government will pressure the media not to report bank problems, but an Internet-based rumor will crush at least one otherwise sound bank.

By spring, the economy will lapse into a sharp recession. We will be in a bear market and stock prices will drop to rational levels. It will hurt. Some "boomers" will delay retirement due to investment losses.

Businesses will fail throughout the year (as they always do), but there will be substantial argument over the reasons. Many firms will be seriously damaged by Y2K, but the damage will accrue over time. Some will hide it better than others. The point will be argued by economists long after everyone else is done caring about it.

By July unemployment will have doubled to over 8 percent, the S&P will be down over 30 percent. The sitting President will blame the last President. Welfare rolls will have exploded creating a new budget deficit. Democrats will propose raising taxes.

At least three major cities will suffer social unrest due to economic woes and racial tensions. This will happen when the weather is hot, not cold.

Jet service will still run between New York and Los Angeles and it will take about six hours... depending on headwinds. Milk, eggs and bread will cost about \$4.00. Food banks will report record donation levels of wheat, soybeans and canned goods.

Trucks and trains will run... rail at 95 percent of normal. Fuel prices, however, will rise and create upward price pressures.

Make no mistake, times will be hard, particularly for a "soft" public used to good times. On the Ed Yourdon forum, the pessimists will say their preparations were worth every penny.

For this economic downturn, Y2K will receive only some of the blame. Most will simply say the longest economic party in history had to end some time... Y2K was just a contributing factor in an economy driven by a speculative bubble and consumer confidence high enough to be considered crack-induced.

Of course, I could be wrong.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 07, 1999.

Mr. Double-decker,

I have long thought you are a person living in deep denial. When a person is seeking to prepare for anything you post and make it sound as if nothing could ever happen to this wonderful machine we have going. I hope your life has been wonderful, but I can hardly imagine it has been a bed of roses. Surely you have had some shortcomings!

This past summer I bought a new '99Chevy truck. Brand new, perfect! Drove about 7500 miles and the transmission went out. Towed it to the dealership for service and waited. Seems like the UAW went on strike and just in time inventory didn't allow for my trans. to go out. weeks later I got my truck back.

Now just think about IF and I repeat IF all those Cutler- Hammer,Square-d, and any other value added manufacturer who only used the chip but bought it from someone else and doesn't have a CLUE how to replace it but will be glad to sell you a new controller for 6 times the price it was in 99 but there is a shortage now and no they can't guareentee delivery because the workers are on strike cause the bank won't cash their checks cause there ain't no cash. And they couldn't come to work anyway because no one will watch their kids who aren't in school cause the teachers ain't getting paidcause the economy has slowed down to a stand-still because everyones waiting on new controllers from Cutler-Hammer, Square-d and whoever else manufactures and installs them but can't manufacture them with just one worker showing up for a promisary note.

My Grandfather told me one time " Don't catch a falling Knife" You, Sir are a falling Knife and you are cutting through many a good person who is just trying to prepare. There's a special place in HELL for people like you.

Come on Decker, Come Be a GI! You want to I can hear it in the submit button. Let go of that DENIAL and go buy a bag of beans,some extra gas some matches.

THE TRUTH SHALL SET YOU FREE!

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), May 07, 1999.

Mr.Decker,

Oh for goodness sakes, no need to struggle so hard over these matters. Just use the KISS principle: There will be a year of disruptions followed by 10 years of depression. Now get cracking on your contingency plans and best of luck to you!

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), May 07, 1999.

Oh, man. I was hoping it'd be multiple choice.

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), May 07, 1999.

With all due respect, these questions (or those like them) are profoundly important for those who talk about preparation. "Smart living" will serve me well (and others) through the "hard recession" scenario. When you take the Milne scenario, you are talking about an economic and social meltdown far worse than any in American history including the Civil War and the Great Depression. If you read history, the exchange of goods and services continued even in the darkest days of the Republic. In my opinion, Milne (and others) are saying Y2K is the equivalent of a nuclear war. This is a remarkable prediction, especially in light of what constitutes rational preparation.

Regards,

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 07, 1999.

Mr Decker, as someone who is not a christian but nevertheless moral person, I would like to think as I am prepared I would not turn away from someone in need. You would be the exception. Your questions are about as usefull as picking the Kentucky Derby winner.This planet has become less and less concerned every year with what the future holds by the very actions of it's people.Hide your money, stock your cupboards, educate yourselves, and you will live on. Sit on your ass pondering these questions and be a sitting duck.....

-- ayayay (want@out.com), May 07, 1999.

DENIAL AIN'T JUST A RIVER IN EGYPT

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), May 07, 1999.

Johnny,

Buy a '52 Chevy... 5 window cab, straight six (216 with dippers), Weber downdraft carb, vacuum wipers and 6 volt system. OK, it only goes 60 mph on a good downhill run, but it's a picture of simplicity.

Every time I read the "want of a nail" argument, I wonder why more people don't understand the power and beauty of capitalism. You need a part for a Chevy, someone else probably does as well. If enough people need a part, some smart fella comes along and builds one. He'll sell it to you for a dear price... but the more he charges (and makes), the more some other smart fella is tempted to make the same part. Ah, competition. Without some central planning office, billions of things work every day... all because there's profit in the mix.

Let's take illegal drugs. There are entire agencies of federal law enforcement agents dedicated to wiping out drugs. Huge penalties if you are caught. And I can go to any city in the U.S. and buy drugs. Why? Because demand creates the supply... the enforcement just increases the price I have to pay. The cost of illegal activity is factored into the final price. So, enterprising young criminals can ship massive quantities of drugs in every day and get it to your street corner despite the best and brightest agents trying to stop them. You think if you need to score a transmission chip, you won't be able to find one? Never underestimate the power of profit.

Regards,

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 08, 1999.

THE SADDLE FELL OFF THE HORSE THAT MR. DOUBLE DECKER PICKED FOR THE DERBY.

COME ON OUT OF YOUR DENIAL DECKER. BUY A BAG OF BEANS

THE TRUTH SHALL SET YOU FREE!

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), May 08, 1999.

By the way, may we have more numbers? Until now, it's Mr. Milne and me.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 08, 1999.

Mr. Decker:
Hope that you didn't find that to be snide remark. I always hated essay answers :-) I certainly couldn't answer these questions, but they did cause me to stop and think about the possibilities...

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), May 08, 1999.

Mr.Decker,

Stop already. You are just so befuddled by all this that you are driving yourself crazy, can't you see that? Haven't people close to you been saying this to you? When a person starts asking all the questions that you did (as if they didn't have the answers) and then proceeds to ramble through a bunch of speculations (as if they were answers) it is the first sign of bi-polar disorder. But don't start to panic now. I told you what you must do. KISS, KISS, KISS. It's your only hope.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), May 08, 1999.

Mr. Decker:

Considering your questions take a gamblers answers, since we have alot of unknowns, here is my answers, thought out the way I always do when I have to figure the odds.

Since I know for a fact that that when you fix something, it always leads to another part of of something that has to be fixed, Along with the fix you started to fix. It is not always knowing how to fix something , But having the money and time to do it right. So will Y2k BE SUCH A BLUNDER.

1-If power fails for 10 days it will cause a depression and k-oss.

2-If one bank fails all the rest will follow starting in Japan and moving around the world until all will fail. I would say many are close to failing right now due to lack of interest in credit cards, and non or late payments on same.

3-Since noone takes Y2K VERY SERIOUSLY, I would say 50% will fail because they don't understand what a chip or computer is connected to.

4- 25% and rising until the lack of fund and faith fades in good time forever mentatilty.

5-Since stocks are not a have to have thing, and people are losing money which they need for everyday expenses to eat and stay alive, the outlook is for 1500. When a thing starts falling its hard to catch before it hits the ground.

6- Almost all cites will become war zones when faith is lost. Since there is no faith except in goverment and tv shows. What will be the point of waiting for someone to rescue you when you have already been taken?

7- Playing catchup will be the problem of all transportation which will eventually fall to 15-25%.

8- -3%

9- Ninty days plus

10- Due to shortages of deliveriers of neded every day necessaties, lack of farmers to acess, prices will rise by X 10 X50 times its regular price.

Thank you for your question, I don't think that most people realize that if even one large link breaks that leads to many links, then a hell breaks loose. Exampale would be GM, FORD, CHRYSLER or A LARGE BANK, WATER OR POWER. Chances of failure now is close to 95% due to PR trhat needs no PR if all was well with the these instutions.

Good day,

Lon

-- Lon (Lon1937@aol.com), May 08, 1999.

"Want of nail", "Illegal drugs"? Is the same person writing both of these paragraphs?

I think it is the second shift Mr. Double Decker due to get off at about 12 central.

Who can that be knocking at my door? FBI go away! don't come round here no more- But Mr Decker said can't you see that its late at night feeling tired and sometimes I don't type so write

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), May 08, 1999.

Mr. Decker,

As I have no way of assessing accurately the "big picture" and the impact of multiple "little problems" I have settled into a routine of working towards a self sustaining lifestyle for my family.

I attended our local water agency board mtg last night and they are still scrambling to figure out what size a generator would need to be to run even 1 well, just put the "plug" in so that they may utilize a generator if one is made available from Office of Emergency Svc. All were getting very frustrated. A board member stated that he had consulted with Pacific Gas & Electric and they instructed him to prepare for at least 3 days of outages - apparently because we are rural. Also a sophisticated system of valves, pumps, etc. with multiple embedded chips and they are relying completely on manufacturers assurances of compliance. Some names I saw mentioned: Tesco & Cutler Hammer. The secretary raised her eyebrows and shrugged when I asked about testing - no \$ resources available.

When I called local co. OES director he began to reassure me that all emergency agencys were prepared for Y2K. I mentioned that the ambulance service for our 2 counties which I worked for as a dispatcher is just now shopping for new compliant dispatching software upgrades he got really quiet. He then started chatting with me for over 1 hour and in the end laughed self deprecatingly and stated that sometimes he thinks "Cassandra Project" goes too far (with prep recommendations) but then wonders if they go far enough. He stated several times during our conversation that they were very concerned about causing public panic ----- so am I. I do feel, however, that people should be given honest, open information instead of "sheeple food" and then they choose how to prepare.

These two experiences which resulted when I followed Koskinen's advice to ask my community services about readiness did not do much to reassure me. Perhaps other communities are doing better. I can only base my preps on what I feel is appropriate.

My guess:

Dramatic, devastating sell off and market crash late this fall - profit taking and then panic; Panicked consumers creating shortages for food (and other supplies); Serious bank runs caused by sincere, hardworking folks just not wanting to take a chance with their life savings; Y2K Brings unknown numbers of problems with a slight to moderate chance of cascading problems across the country, "some" localized electrical outages (do we really know how many it would take to cause a huge problem when added together?).

I think there is only a slight (5-10%) chance of huge changes in our socio/economic picture but that is enough to make me very concerned.

Sincerely,

Kristi

-- Kristi (securx@Succeed.Net), May 08, 1999.

I guess you are not familiar with the "for the want a nail the kingdom was lost" story. You are right, though, I am too tired to tell it.

Gordon... You can stop trying to convince me. And you may want to pick up the DSM and check out bi-polar disorder (once known as manic- depression). First, it's a real problem for many people, though treatable. Tossing around pyschological terms is reckless and potentially hurtful. Second, what you are accusing me of has nothing to do with bi-polar disorder. Not only is it inappropriate; it is inaccurate.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 08, 1999.

Why, thank you, Mr. Decker.

Just a little additional info, if you please. You did not answer your first three questions *as asked.* Percentages or real numbers please? And Q8 was not answered at all. Qs 1 and 9 appear to be "trick" questions. Also, there seem to be inconsistencies between answers 5 and 7 and between 6 and 10. Could you elaborate?

1. IF *the* power grid goes down, 100% of the US will be impacted.

2. Who knows?

3. Somewhere between 5% and 50%

4. Less than 25%

5. 30% (Seriously)

6. Many

7. Above 70%

8. Not more than 10%

9. 6 hours (off the ground) more or less, but only if the traveler is in an aircraft.

10. Whatever the market will bear.

Mr. Elbow Grease

-- Elbow Grease (Elbow_Grease@AutoShop.com), May 08, 1999.

You See the other DOUBLE DECKER is on break now.

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), May 08, 1999.

"And I can go to any city in the U.S. and buy drugs. Why? "

Because the CIA/PTB have it set up that way.

The drug war could be stopped overnight be legalisation.

But then there would be no money-laundering opportunities.

It's a phoney war - as are you Mr. Decker, ill-informed, phoney and dangerous.

Sleep well.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 08, 1999.

Decker

You see how long this thread is? Just come on over to our side and see how many people you could bring with you.

THE TRUTH SHALL SET YOU FREE!!

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), May 08, 1999.

Wow,

Where are my hipwaders when I need them!? I know it is late but I was hoping to get a response from Mr. Decker re: my post. However I can see I was completely run over by all the angry, bileous (sp? seems appropriate even if I can't spell it!) responses. Oh well.....

Kristi

-- Kristi (securx@Succeed.Net), May 08, 1999.

Mr. Elbow Grease,

I am very tired, but let me slog forth. The grid (the whole tamale) will not fail. Less than 20 percent of the country will experience Y2K service disruptions of not more than three days.

We will not know how many banks fail, because the Fed will prop up the weak sisters long enough to stave off crises. When it all said and done, no more than five percent will actually dissolve.

Here's a tough one. I don't think we'll every know whether businesses have failed because of Y2K or a combination of other factors. If they are not Y2K ready, I'd say poor management was partly to blame. This stuff is an economist's dream. Let's say a 50 percent increase in the RATE of failure over 1999.

GDP, off six to eight percent by the end of 2000 from the high water mark... but we'll start seeing positive signs in the last quarter of 2000.

One of the measures of progress is how far a man can travel in a day. If one suggests we are turning back the clock because of a cataclysmic Y2K, the length of time should increase. I really have heard people who have said we'll all be back in horse-drawn buggies.

The grid question is so important. So much depends on what you see happening with power supply grid. But I have read and read... and the way I see it, we will have glitches, but the juice will flow. No tricks.

It's too late for me to find inconsistencies. If you can help me here and point them out, I'll try to address them. zzzzzzzz

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 08, 1999.

Kristi,

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 08, 1999.

Certainly.

And to all a good night.

Kristi

(hey it's only 10:00 out here in CA!) I think everyone would benefit from a good night's sleep.....

-- Kristi (securx@Succeed.net), May 08, 1999.

1. 3 months...35% 2. enough of them to make you wish you had taken your money out a stupid question. who cares...a run on the banks makes that irrelevant. 3. 10-25%...but many will be created in the chaos 4. 10%, but it will get worse as time goes by. 5. 40% 6. it will depend on the power grid. and that no one knows.. 7. who cares? 8. a lot 9. If he reads your questions...forever 10. the going black market rate. Mr Decker...I agree with others. You are uneasy about this Y2K thing. Consider the government debt of 5-6 trillion. consider what it will do in a recession. DEFLATION....cash will be king...but it too will become worthless, if the Gary North's are correct!

Decker,

OK, I see you have been in that DSM. I was only guessing about your disorder but perhaps now that you have personally researched the book for more definitive information you will share with us what your true problem really is. Whatever it is, you need help. If you can't afford it yourself there are some government programs available. However, be warned that it takes about 6 weeks minimum to get approved, so that means you'll only have about 6 months of counselling available to you this year. I don't wish to alarm you, but the probability of receiving any government entitlement payments next year is very low. Still, 6 months of intense work and you may find yourself ready to face the tough realities coming. Getting rid of your non-productive fantasies could be a blessing in disguise. I say all this under the assumption that you are not simply a fraud, as many have accussed you. All I know is that you are very troubled by what is happening to you and coming to this web site with your confused thinking is not good for you. Honestly.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), May 08, 1999.

Mr. Decker,

1. I don't know.

2. I don't know.

3. I don't know.

4. I don't know.

5. I don't know.

6. I don't know.

7. I don't know.

8. I don't know.

9. I don't know.

10. I don't know.

I wish I DID know. I read a lot of opinions on this forum, sprinkled with a *few* referenced verifiable facts. In the face of so many conflicting uncertainties, and my own understanding of the problem, I have decided that erring on the side of caution is warranted.

How much caution? That is an individual consideration, but in my case, I will do anything in my power to reduce the risk to my family to as close to ZERO as I can possibly manage.

If I were only responsible for myself alone, I might choose a more liberal level of preparedness. But I am directly responsible for my family, by love, by choice, and by sworn promise.

I don't know if it is enough; I only know that it is the best I can do for my family.

Spindoc'

-- Spindoctor (spindoc_99_2000@yahoo.com), May 08, 1999.

Spindoc,

Keep on keeping on!

DOUBLEDECKERS A DIPSTICK WITH HIS HEAD UP HIS STOCK PORTFOLIO! He's scared but won't buy any beans.

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), May 08, 1999.

GOD DAMN MOTHER LOVING SONS OF CAMMELS AND SHEEP HERDERS!!!!!! I AM SO FURIOUS WITH THE LIKES OF PEOPLE I THOUGHT I COULD TRUST AND LISTEN TO!!!!!

CAN WE, JUST FOR THE MOMENT, REMEMBER THAT WE ARE NOT IN THE EFFING 3RD GRADE????

FOR GOD'S SAKE THE MAN ASKS A TRULY FU**ING REASONABLE QUESTION, WHICH SHOULD ****FORCE**** US TO BE OBJECTIVE ABOUT WHERE WE ARE GOING TO EVENTUALLY HAVE TO PUT OUR F***ING MONEY IN THE REAL NEAR FUTURE AND WHAT HAPPENS. . . . . . . . . . . . .A GRAND TOTAL OF 3 (GO BACK AND COUNT EM I MIGHT HAVE MISSED 1 OR 2) NON-BRAIN DEAD, NON- BLINDED BY THEIR OWN SHINING WIT POSTERS TRY TO ANSWER THE QUESTION.

THE QUESTION STARTED OUT AS ON TOPIC AS ANYTHING POSTED BY ME OR ANYONE ELSE IN THIS WHOLE DAMN FORUM.

and , no, my caps button is not stuck. I am furious with the lot of you.

Chuck Rienzo

-- chuck, a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), May 08, 1999.

and, no, I did NOT accidently hit the Post button before the Delete button, C

-- chuck, a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), May 08, 1999.

Sorry Chuck but IMHO "gentleman" decker has abrogated his right to garnish the respect of us Yourdonites.

Why?

Because he has been rumbled, outed if you like.

He's admitted what he has been up to - and now he's trying to weasel hiw way back in to everyone's favour.

Sorry but a lot of folks have principles and can see a fraud and charalatan like this character a mile away.

He'll have to report back that a lot of us aren't playing his games anymore.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 08, 1999.

Night Driver,

Sorry you got offended but in my opinion, the only reason DECKER started this thread was so he could "debunke" each one indiviually. As a long time lurker and sometimes poster (recently dropped my alias how bout you do the same,who do you fear?) I must admit I'm kinda surprised at your response knowing decker.

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), May 08, 1999.

Why In The Hell Are You People Even Talking To This Government Troll?

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), May 08, 1999.

Gordan (and Mr. Decker)

Be very careful about quoting the DSM-IV (is that the version you are referring to?), as it is primarily a billing tool, rather than a true diagnostic guideline. Are either of you psychologists, trained in its' use? I don't claim to be. I am a Cognitive Research (not Clinical) Psychologist. Hovever, I am aware of DSM's limitations. Are you? Tread softly, unless from knowledge...

Spindoc'

-- Spindoctor (spindoc_99_2000@yahoo.com), May 08, 1999.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 08, 1999.

Give Decker some credit here. Some good questions, which I said earlier, I cannot easily answer, even after some serious reflection so far. There was no intent of sarcasm, and if someone misinterpreted it as such, my apologies.

Voice inflection sure would come in handy at times here.

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), May 08, 1999.

Johnny, You missed a deleted (thankfully) thread that posted my name and address. there ain't no alias there, the e-mail works,and I DID sign with my true name. My true name has ALWAYS been on my posts, as you will see if you look at the name and e-mail address.

Chuck

-- chuck, a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), May 08, 1999.

Dear Wormwood,

What a splendid feat! You have done more harm than I could have ever imagined of you. You must tell me more about how you divided Ed Yourdon's forum? From the reports I am now receiving from our intelligences positioned in the near future, you will be pleased to know that shortly after your infamous post on the numbers, quite a few devils were dispatched to pick up the suicides. Hold on... I'm getting something on the wire. There is now a request for several trucks!

Wormwood, you may get your horns yet! Indeed, the good news gets even better! There is also whispering about further casualties... more casualties than were expected. As you know, the future is wonderfully uncertain that way. That's how we will win the war! But tell me now, did you realize then that when you threw down that cleverly gauntlet of questions that it would rock the forum like a 500 megaton bomb exploded on the ground? The fall out took many more than the blast.

What surprises me is that none of the usual suspects came in and saved the day. Not even Ed Yourdon, I am told. Indeed, I have a report right here. "The dim-witted were not rescued from their overwhelming inadequacy to answer Wormwood and this fueled wild rumors that no one was really up to the challenge." I must only assume that you have made the usual suspects so mad that they left you alone in hopes that you would eventually go away. Or did you make unsuspecting chum of them?

Let me read more of the report to you. "Rumors fed more rumors until most of the dim-wits believed that if no one was adequate to give an answer, then, who could be trusted among the usual suspects to argue well that the latest official government reports (that all was fine) were untrue? And if no arguments were adequate, then their concern was all for nothing." I realize now that you must have also assisted the dim-wits in logically arriving at this perfectly rational conclusion.

What a bold and daring move. How foolish! Though you may gloat now, I should not have to remind you that leading human beings to reasonable conclusions doesn't always work. Dim-wits are irrational creatures, despite the rational powers in their possession. Indeed, the careful argument of many a devil has been undone with a little divine grace. Be vigilant! A little divine grace may undo the discord now sewn. The future is terribly uncertain! This, Wormwood, is how the war was lost.

Don't worry too much about this. Your horns are practically yours. I am getting in a new report from our intelligences in the near future and all is well for us. "As the dim-wits had more pressing concerns, jumping in on the stock market as it hit 12,000 in 1999 and spending this new paper wealth on faster computers and other coolities (I envy them, at times), interest in Y2K was lost. The dim-wits that might have otherwise escaped a truckful fate, did, in fact, go for a ride."

Stay put, Wormwood! I don't trust these reports. There is a bit more humor than usual. There is something wrong. I will join you shortly. Do not be much afraid, I won't eat you yet. However, I am bringing along a few tablets of Tums-- just in case you have failed miserably. There are times that even an archdevil like myself has to do things himself... if he wants it done well. Don't do anything more until I get there. You might screw it up. The future is painfully unclear!

Sincerely, Uncle Screwtape

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), May 08, 1999.

Decker,

1. If the power grid fails, how long and what percentage of the U.S. will be impacted?

There will be some brief interrupts and scattered outages from Dec 31, 1999 through January 1, 2000 (ie, during the primary transition). Hard to assign a percentage, because I believe they'll be scattered. One or two remote locations will lose power for as much as a week, making the news for a few nights.

How many U.S. banks will fail in the year 2000?

None will fail due to Y2K.

What percentage of businesses will fail between Jan. 1, 2000, and December 31, 2000?

Hard to say; it's been a while since I've seen figures for business failures in general. It also depends on the business; a marginal operation that's been robbing Peter to pay Paul might find a computer crash to be the straw on the camel's back. Just to give you a number, I'd say maybe 5% of all business failures will be linked (directly or indirectly -- and correctly or not[g]) to Y2K.

What will the U.S. unemployment rate be on July 1, 2000?

How far will the S&P 500 fall (percentage)?

I think it will fluctuate for several months, but 2000 should finish up.

How many of the 150 largest MSAs (metropolitan statistical areas) will experience serious rioting or social unrest between Jan. 1, 2000 and March 31, 2000?

Specifically due to Y2K? Zero.

At what level will the U.S. railroads run as of February 1, 2000 (percentage of capacity)?

I think Y2K effects may reduce it a bit for a few weeks; but this depends on lots of other factors.

How much will GDP drop by the end of 2000?

It will go up.

How long will it take a traveler to go from New York to Los Angeles on July 1, 2000?

The same as it does now.

How much will a gallon of whole milk, a loaf of white bread and dozen eggs cost on July 1, 2000?

Approximately the same as they do now, adjusted for inflation.

You asked, so there you go. :)

Sorry I couldn't assign percentages to all of these, and remember, I assumed that you were talking about the effects of Y2K specifically.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 08, 1999.

I thought I might check in before I enjoy a camping weekend on my rural property. Among other tasks, I will plant some peonies. You cannot eat them; they have no purpose other than beauty. Let's call it an act of faith.

Kristi... if the power stays on, I think the "panic" will moderate. In my opinion, I think we'll see more panicky behavior in December than in January. Speculation about Y2K will be worse than Y2K itself for some.

Y2K already has a high enough awareness level to become part of pop culture (KIA ads, etc.) By December, we'll also be suffering from the same issue-fatigue the nation had during the impeachment process. The impeachment process took so long, and pushed so many other issues aside, by the end most Americans just wanted the whole mess over. By November, we'll see the Y2K movie of the week. There will a 60 minutes special on Y2K scams and how Y2K has ruined some marriages. You may wish you'd never heard of Y2K. Still, December will be a high anxiety month. Most Americans procrastinate, so they will wait to worry until this last minute.

Most economists are predicting a Y2K-related loss of half a point. Most, however, do not see it as a contributing event to a recession. You'll see my numbers reflect a sharp recession... but only partially- attributable to Y2K.

Like Warren Buffet, I have lost my ability to make sense out of this economy...

As I have pointed out, the "maximum impact" scenarios described here are unprecedented. Combine the Civil War (U.S. death toll) with the Great Depression (market crash, 25% unemployment), add martial law and a half dozen other dark periods in our history. This level of prediction is so remarkable it is hard to find an analogy.

Think about it. We are talking about an event that makes the collapse of the former Soviet Union look like a walk in the park. (And that was horribly unsound, totalarian state trying to enforce a communist economic system.) I'd like to hear your thoughts (and a good analogy).

Gordon & Andy... Just a note, serious people focus on the issue. Every time you ignore the issue (as Chuck so eloquently noted) and attack me, it is your credibility that suffers. Why don't you post some numbers, step to the plate and make a few predictions. Stay on the issue. If you want to send hate mail, email me and save people the time of wading through it to get to the real posts.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 08, 1999.

"Just a note, serious people focus on the issue. Every time you ignore the issue (as Chuck so eloquently noted) and attack me, it is your credibility that suffers. Why don't you post some numbers, step to the plate and make a few predictions. Stay on the issue. If you want to send hate mail, email me and save people the time of wading through it to get to the real posts."

Go plant some pansies you big phoney tosser.

You're fooling nobody here.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 08, 1999.

And for people of principle - the majority on this forum, this one is rich coming from you...

"it is your credibility that suffers"

Coming from you, that says a lot about who is paying you.

You've been rumbled and you don't like it.

Tough, I will continue to reminf everybody just what you're up to.

Have a fantastic weekend on your "rural property".

Tosser.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 08, 1999.

Andy,

Thanks.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 08, 1999.

Sorry - peonies, cos' that's what your doing to this forum you smarmy git.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 08, 1999.

Mr. Poole,

Surely you cannot be so sim-poole. Read Mr. Decker's own answers and reconsider whether the questions are purely about Y2K-induced effects. They come from an *economist* after all. At least his responses acknowledge that things will change over the next year or two. But yours reminded me of those referred to in 2nd Peter 3:3-5. Previously, I admonished Mr. Decker for speaking ignorantly outside his area of expertise, primarily because he had ridiculed others for doing that very thing. Just a word to the wise. No one is a Y2K expert. But I have no hesitation exploring an area of the problem where he *may* provide some depth. BTW, what is your area of expertise? The know-it-all attitudes from both sides around here have gotten very old.

-- Elbow Grease (Elbow_Grease@AutoShop.com), May 08, 1999.

I'm embarrassed that the character assassination of Mr. Decker continues unabated. Chuck shouted his disgust. Ditto for me.

DEMENTIA: mental deterioration, especially when due to physical causes.

Perhaps this is a temporary dementia caused in part by a lack of roughage. I hereby order every Yourdonite to cook & eat an entire pot of three bean chili by this time tomorrow.

Oy Vey!

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), May 08, 1999.

Mr. Decker,

Last night I referred to what appeared to be inconsistencies in your numbers. Specifically, a fall of 30% on the S&P would dictate more severe economic effects, and a lower level of railroad activity, yet you indicate no inflationary or deflationary pressures, and minimal social upheaval. Can you explain?

Mr. Elbow Grease

-- Elbow Grease (Elbow_Grease@AutoShop.com), May 08, 1999.

I read the bickering,and I expect that this is the level of co- operation being experienced world wide.I'm buying more beans

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com`), May 08, 1999.

1. If the power grid fails, how long and what percentage of the U.S. will be impacted?

Unlikely that there will be any interruptions from Y2K. I am more worried about radical Death Lovers who seek the end of the world - specifically, a disciple of GN may decide to resort to terrorism to "help things along".

How many U.S. banks will fail in the year 2000?

The same percentage that failed in 99 or 98

What percentage of businesses will fail between Jan. 1, 2000, and December 31, 2000?

None related to Y2K - except perhaps for the sheister-meisters that have made a fortune selling third rate dried foods to the rubes. I don't imagine they will be very popular next year...

What will the U.S. unemployment rate be on July 1, 2000?

3.5%

How far will the S&P 500 fall (percentage)?

If I knew the answer to this I would be a richer man. Any deviation from its current course will have nothing to do with Y2K.

How many of the 150 largest MSAs (metropolitan statistical areas) will experience serious rioting or social unrest between Jan. 1, 2000 and March 31, 2000?

Due to Y2K? 0%

At what level will the U.S. railroads run as of February 1, 2000 (percentage of capacity)?

At whatever capacity they are running now.

How much will GDP drop by the end of 2000?

It will rise 2%.

How long will it take a traveler to go from New York to Los Angeles on July 1, 2000?

Walking, driving or flying, one must allow the same length of time next year as one does now. Why would it be any different?

How much will a gallon of whole milk, a loaf of white bread and dozen eggs cost on July 1, 2000?

1% increase - less in some areas...

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), May 08, 1999.

Chuck

Before you tear us all a new rectal opening, perhaps you would be so kind as to answer the questions yourself!

As to my own "BRAIN DEAD, BLINDED BY MY OWN WIT" answer, it is the truth. I cannot say where this will put the S+P 500, or unemployment figures, or how many cities will experience rioting! Can you?

Holy cow man! Would you rather that I pull numbers out of my ass? And then be accused the fool because there is no way to back them up?

I do not think that the night shift is your friend Chuck, get some shuteye.

Regards,

-- Mr Deedah (used2B@unkeeD.B4civility), May 08, 1999.

Mr Decker:

I have no problem with your question. Likewise, your answers are as easy to support as any I might give. Only one statement makes me question you: Weber downdraft carb! Had a car in the 60's with multiple Weber's. It is still painful to think about.

Z1X4Y7

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), May 08, 1999.

1. If the power grid fails, how long and what percentage of the U.S. will be impacted?

The grid will not fail. There may be isolated short outages. Whether these are caused by y2k issues won't be known for a while, but will be blamed on y2k anyway. Even if the cause is obviously lightning, solar flares, or falling trees.

2. How many U.S. banks will fail in the year 2000?

Federal actions, forced mergers, reassignment of accounts, etc. will reduce the total number of banks by about 5%. Banking services will be reduced. The error rate will be newsworthy.

3. What percentage of businesses will fail between Jan. 1, 2000, and December 31, 2000?

5-10% more than the usual number of failures. But new businesses will start up at an abnormal rate as well. The total number of businesses at the end of the year will be about what it was at the start.

4. What will the U.S. unemployment rate be on July 1, 2000?

5-6% But productivity per worker will drop, as will effective wages. 5% more people will be employed outside their area of expertise than is currently the case.

5. How far will the S&P 500 fall (percentage)?

12

6. How many of the 150 largest MSAs (metropolitan statistical areas) will experience serious rioting or social unrest between Jan. 1, 2000 and March 31, 2000?

None.

7. At what level will the U.S. railroads run as of February 1, 2000 (percentage of capacity)?

15% below current percentage.

8. How much will GDP drop by the end of 2000?

3%

9. How long will it take a traveler to go from New York to Los Angeles on July 1, 2000?

Same as now. But 20% fewer people doing so.

10. How much will a gallon of whole milk, a loaf of white bread and dozen eggs cost on July 1, 2000?

This is a hard one. I expect these staples will be subjected to price controls if they threaten to rise too much. The result will be price tags of \$2.50/gallon pasted on empty shelves.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 08, 1999.

Stan Faryna,

Brilliant!

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), May 08, 1999.

Hardliner,

Sincerely, Dim Wit

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), May 08, 1999.

I don't claim to be good at predictions and BTW these are not predictions. Let's just say my answers here give an idea of the overall impact level we might feel. Many of these estimates will of course turn out to be wrong.

1. If the power grid fails, how long and what percentage of the U.S. will be impacted?

Everyone will be affected as least temporarily if the actual grid itself fails. I think as much as 20% of the U.S. will lose electricity anywhere from three days to three weeks.

2. How many U.S. banks will fail in the year 2000?

Very few will fail due to their own bugs. As many as 20% will fail due to exposure to bad loans and due to data corruption from outside sources.

3. What percentage of businesses will fail between Jan. 1, 2000, and December 31, 2000?

As many as 30%.

4. What will the U.S. unemployment rate be on July 1, 2000?

15%.

5. How far will the S&P 500 fall (percentage)?

70%.

6. How many of the 150 largest MSAs (metropolitan statistical areas) will experience serious rioting or social unrest between Jan. 1, 2000 and March 31, 2000?

Twelve.

7. At what level will the U.S. railroads run as of February 1, 2000 (percentage of capacity)?

50%.

8. How much will GDP drop by the end of 2000?

10%.

9. How long will it take a traveler to go from New York to Los Angeles on July 1, 2000?

Not much longer than it does now -- if you can afford the ticket. Fuel will be in short supply.

10. How much will a gallon of whole milk, a loaf of white bread and dozen eggs cost on July 1, 2000?

I haven't decided yet if Y2K will be inflationary or deflationary. The better question might be to ask how much you will be making per hour. You will have to work longer hours to buy the same amount of groceries. Some foods will still be in short supply in July.

-- Surveys are fun (well@known.regular), May 08, 1999.

Unc et al:

I will admit that the scream was somewhat out of character, but only a few people have seen me truly furious. My bride of nearly 25 years has only seen it twice, once I broke a pool cue without recourse to anything but 2 hands, and once I broke a number of bed slats and 2x4's in the basement, on a support pole.

The goal of the scream was to get answers. Not pulled from the air, and not necessarily numbers, but ANSWERS. I had tried, on a different thread to do it rationally, but that entry was flat ignored. I don't have a problem being ignored, (you have to know my bride), but what I was watching was the unwarranted near destruction of something that, even a week ago I would have called too robust to be destroyed by sniping and trolling. WE WERE DOING WHAT I THOUGHT WAS IMPOSSIBLE to OURSELVES!!

That was the point.

We can address topic (capital or small "T") regardless of the person bringing it up, or we can close up shop. It falls out that simply.

Chuck, who has calmed down somewhat.

-- Chuck, a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), May 09, 1999.

Folks, I asked for answers (in a rather inelegant manner) and after 24 hours I guess it would be appropo for me to give my OPINION answers here too.

1. If the power grid fails, how long and what percentage of the U.S. will be impacted?
First, defining terms, if the FULL national grid fails, it will take seven to ten days to restart it assuming that the cause of the failure was transient (Robert Cook, I do read and remember). If a sector of one of the 3 grids goes down, then it will depend on which sector or grid what percentage is impacted.
MY SWAG is that we may see no more than 45% of the grid down at any given time but that we WILL see irregularities in the power transmitted through out the country for 6 - 9 months.
this is barring civil disturbances and a rise of anything that even remotely looks like a Neo-Luddite Movement. (My current personal view of total disaster/hell is a Neo-Luddite revival.)

2. How many U.S. banks will fail in the year 2000?

Best guess at a best case would be 5 - 15% MORE than the AVERAGE of 1997, 1998, and 1999. I expect that we may find that the failure rate rises to 30 -40% of each size catagory (which parallels 1929-31) due to a similar causality. With Y2k problems contributing both directly and indirectly (Market exposure, derivitives exposure, etc.).

3. What percentage of businesses will fail between Jan. 1, 2000, and December 31, 2000?

See # 2, above. The same SWAG numbers and the same reasoning, though this may be optimistic in this case.

4. What will the U.S. unemployment rate be on July 1, 2000?

This is virtually impossible to predict as this number is so heavily cooked now, that I would expect that the determining factor wil be more what the PTB want it to be than any valid, standardized study would find.

5. How far will the S&P 500 fall (percentage)?

Being a back-of-the-privy chartist, I would expect at least a 60% fall from 7/1/1999 or a 75% fall from the top, whichever is greater. (ref most indices 1929-1933)

6. How many of the 150 largest MSAs (metropolitan statistical areas) will experience serious rioting or social unrest between Jan. 1, 2000 and March 31, 2000?
Terribly sorry to quibble, but they are SMSA's (STANDARD) METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREAS.

And I would expect that any one with significant power discontinuities will show some uunrest. I would also look for serious unrest in ALL if the situation is NOT explained to the people of the country (Fireside chats, etc.) prior to rollover. I also tend to expect that the unrest will happen in the SUMMER, when the effects of the rollover in Europe/Pacific Rim come home here to roost (Can you say Fratricidal Trading Partner Failure).

7. At what level will the U.S. railroads run as of February 1, 2000 (percentage of capacity)?

Using the average capacity of feb 1997, 1998, 1999, this is still tough to cover. SWAG looks like 70-90%, assuming that the fuel question is resolved. Fuel problems will make this an "All bets are off" situation.

7. At what level will the U.S. railroads run as of February 1, 2000 (percentage of capacity)?

this is another of the well cooked stats. It will also fall into the punch line of an ethnic accounting joke where the successful applicant closes the shades and whispers "How much do you wnat it to be?" in the ear of the manager.

9. How long will it take a traveler to go from New York to Los Angeles on July 1, 2000?

Wealthy - same as now, about 5.5 hours (helps to have a good travel agent!! LOL)
Business - 7.5 (Not such a good travel agent, and the least cost route takes longer)
Military - 4.5 or less (DUH Speed of plane, etc)
Civilian - Air travel out of reach, Train/Bus average about 4.5 days depending on route.

10. How much will a gallon of whole milk, a loaf of white bread and dozen eggs cost on July 1, 2000?

Best case: plus 3% per month from today's \$2.45. per gallon, \$1.35 per loaf and \$1.09 per dozen.
Worst case: 2 oz silver or 3 hours work per gallon, 1.5 oz silver or 1.5 hours work per loaf (if you can find someone willing to barter) and 1 oz silver per dozen if fortunate enough to find a full dozen available.

the reader is cautioned that these are primarily SWAG's (Scientific Wild Assed Guesses ) and should be taken with the proviso that, as a generalist I am somewhat more pesimistic than many, and Your Mileage May Vary.

Chuck

-- chuck, a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), May 09, 1999.

Good morning, Chuck,

I'm encouraged to see that you didn't just go away mad. ;-)

Over the past year, I've learned to hold your posts in the highest regard. This one diminishes you. Had I been in your shoes, the publishing of my personal address would have enraged me as nothing else, but not this thread.

Mr. Decker has brought a good portion of this on himself. Perhaps a recap of this thread:

might reveal Mr. Decker's early attitude toward the regulars on this forum. That attitude has moderated somewhat since then, and I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because there are only a few participants here with his avowed profession. But a great deal of suspicion remains. Clearly, I am not alone in that viewpoint.

Furthermore, most of the serious survey responses include, explicitly or implicitly, a YMMV disclaimer such as your own, since accurate prophecy is in short supply these days, especially on such a complex subject. So the responses we have seen are still nothing but opinions. Though we certainly don't have a statistically significant sampling, the range has been defined: from Poole to Milne. One cannot exceed those limits without postulating that Y2K will (1) have a *beneficial* effect during the specified time frame, or(2) ignite GTNW. What follows is speculation: I believe Mr. Decker composed his questions knowing this would happen. It was not the limits that interested him, (or me,) but the distribution within the range. I believe he was hoping to "expose" the radicalism of the forum. OTOH, I expected to see a more optimistic grouping, which could be a surprise to all concerned.

Unfortunately, due to Mr. Decker's forum persona, he has shot himself in the foot and has done us all a disservice by generating an unusually high noise level, as illustrated by this thread.

So, Chuck, maybe your concern is for the health of the forum, I don't know, but don't cast Mr. Decker in the part of a victim. It ain't so.

-- Elbow Grease (Elbow_Grease@AutoShop.com), May 09, 1999.

So rather than provide an answer to a reasonable question, Elbow Grease chooses to argue "It's all Decker's fault we're behaving like infants. He made us do it."

I repeat my earlier observation. Decker's contributions tend to separate those who view this forum as a school, from those who view it as a church. The students provide their guesses and learn from the guesses of others. The True Believers can do no better than personal attacks.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 09, 1999.

Most importantly, apology accepted.

Next, it has been informative to see the range of answers. Please note, that I am not delving into the details and desconstructing any post in particuler. I simply find in informative for people to take Y2K thoughts and translate into a language more readily understood by me. (By the way, Mr. Elbow Grease, if you look at the post '87 recession where the market lost its head and shoulders... you'll see that a serious market correction is not necessarily linked to catastrophic loss of GDP.)

On the most-tired of subjects (me), I am not a victim. For the record, I feel my post on Debunker was twisted. My "What is the Point" post made the assertion that there are "extremists" on this forum. After reading the repugnant accusation that some writers here are child molestors (and other hateful posts), I really don't feel as if I have to defend that particular observation.

Folks, you ask me a straight question, and you'll get a straight answer. Check with Mr. Yourdon if you have lingering doubts. On other issues, I don't give "free passes" just because we may agree on Y2K. You tell me you plan to overthrow the government and replace it with a theocracy a la Gary North... and you are going to catch some flak.

Finally, for those who want to hold me responsible for the personal actions of others... don't. This is a marketplace of ideas. If my ideas are terrible, they will fail. I don't want a muzzle put on Gary North for the same reason. I respect freedom too much.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 09, 1999.

Mr. Flint,

More hyperbole. You are very good at reading what is not written, and not reading what *is* written. No, on second thought, you are great at it. I said "a good portion." How that translates in your mind into "all Decker's fault," I don't know. Perhaps the subtle difference eludes you. Now I know this is a long thread, and maybe your attention span is not quite up to it, but you will find my responses way, way up there. Furthermore, I am interested in the subject of this thread and attempted to continue the dialog ON TOPIC in spite of the noise, which, for the most part, includes Chuck's rant. By extension, that now includes my response to Chuck, your response to mine and this one to you. If you want to give the impression that you're above it all, stay on topic. Otherwise, you're down and dirty like the rest. So playing the immaturity card just doesn't wash. But, Mr. Flint, you *are* all wet.

-- Elbow Grease (Elbow_Grease@AutoShop.com), May 09, 1999.

Elbow Grease:

OK, perhaps you're right. I see valid attempts to make educated guesses here from you and me, and from Milne, @, Decker, Lon, Poole, y2k pro, surveys are fun, Rick, and Chuck. To me, these are the people who have earned the right to kibitz. And the questions and real responses are good ones, regardless of the imputed motivations of whoever posted them.

But surrounding valid replies is a whole lot of noise, almost all of it personal attacks against Decker by posters who didn't bother trying to even answer the questions. These people qualify as less than useless. They are Johnny (8 attacks), Andy (6 attacks) Gordon (2 attacks) and 1 attack each by Sysman, ayayay, Nikoli and spindoctor. And I'm not counting the responses that were thoughtful even if they didn't answer the questions.

So I'll say it again: Decker's posts separate the wheat from the chaff. And some of the nitwits here contribute an awful lot of chaff, you can't deny it.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 09, 1999.

Mr. Flint, on that we can agree.

Mr. Decker,

"head and shoulders" ... I understand. I hope you are using the phrase euphemistically. Tell me you're a chartist and you will lose what shreds of respect I may have left. :-)

Mr. Elbow Grease

-- Elbow Grease (Elbow_Grease@AutoShop.com), May 09, 1999.

Mr. Elbow Grease,

Please. The chart worshippers are part of the physics envy crowd. I am fundamentals man with a Ben Graham value-hunting pedigree. Investing, though, is just a hobby, not a vocation.

Flint,

Thanks for the defense. I enjoy reading your work... and hope you find time to write on a subject other me. (laughter) I think the responses to the "numbers" question helps me better understand. Extreme preparations are rational IF you believe we are taking a rough, ugly ride back to an earlier century.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 09, 1999.

Only 6 attacks, my oh my I must be slipping.

Decker you are a fraud.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 09, 1999.

And a smarmy git.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 09, 1999.

And have proven yourself to be so.

The rest who kow-tow to double-decker are obviously not very principled but that's there lookout.

One more.

And a liar - you've been caught red handed more tham once.

Nine. That's much better.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 09, 1999.

1. If the power grid fails, how long and what percentage of the U.S. will be impacted?

Widespread power problems. Outages of a few days in some areas, weeks in others. Pandemonium ensues.

2. How many U.S. banks will fail in the year 2000?

A global financial collapse triggered by a collapse of the US stock market, and runs on the banks in many countries, will plunge the world into the worst economic crisis since the 1930s. A total restructuring of the banking system, and of what constitutes wealth, will result.

3. What percentage of businesses will fail between Jan. 1, 2000, and December 31, 2000?

Similar to the Great Depression, but since we are predominantly a service based economy now, the effect will be much more pronounced.

4. What will the U.S. unemployment rate be on July 1, 2000?

At least 25%

5. How far will the S&P 500 fall (percentage)?

50%

6. How many of the 150 largest MSAs (metropolitan statistical areas) will experience serious rioting or social unrest between Jan. 1, 2000 and March 31, 2000?

10-20%

7. At what level will the U.S. railroads run as of February 1, 2000 (percentage of capacity)?

50%. But much of the lost capacity will not be needed because of the worsening depression.

8. How much will GDP drop by the end of 2000?

Im not an economist, so I cant juggle those numbers. But I can tell you this, contrary to what Poole and Y2K pro believe, it wont go UP.

9. How long will it take a traveler to go from New York to Los Angeles on July 1, 2000?

Commercial domestic flights will be unavailable for the first week of 2000, and only later at a premium. If you can get and afford one, it will take approximately the same amount of time as it does now, but you may be limited to specific routings/airlines .

10. How much will a gallon of whole milk, a loaf of white bread and dozen eggs cost on July 1, 2000?

This is a tough question. There will be shortages, and food will be much cheaper in the rural areas that support agriculture/horticulture. Lets just say that I believe the price of gas will top out at \$10/gallon next year. And you know what that does to the price of everything else.

-- a (a@a.a), May 10, 1999.

Hardliner,

My mistake, it was WalMart. I was annoyed and did not think of the incident, only the suggestion I was "too good" for a particular store. With my old truck, impromptu repairs are pretty common. You are right, though, and I apologize for the mistake. [Note to myself, don't post angry.]

Mr. Elbow Grease,

Are you still upset that I mistakenly assumed "Elbow Grease" was a nickname? Are you suggesting people call you "Mr. Elbow Grease?" Personally, I think the forum better served if you explain the assumptions underlying your economic predictions rather than serving as one more voice in the "Decker Sucks" chorus. Since you feel Y2K will make the Great Depression look like a walk on the beach, our time is better spent in that discussion, isn't it?

Flint,

I'll remain my own monkey. There are honest, decent, truth-seeking people on this forum. Every vicious slur on a reasonable person (like Dave Walden) simply isolates the attacker. And you know, as well as anyone, no matter how I write... someone will find fault.

But it's a far cry from torn apart.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), May 21, 1999.