David Eddy exposes a little problem with Statistics Canada's y2k predictions

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread


relevant quote:

"But what these numbers from Statistics Canada show us is that, in order to make the necessary Y2K deadlines, Canadian companies are planning on increasing their project productivity by factors of 200, 300, and 400 percent. The top line of the exhibit, which summarizes all industry segments into an 18-percent completion status, seems believable enough (certainly far more believable than the U.S. government's recent claims of 92-percent completion). Not shown in this table is the fact that in April 1998, the completion percentage was just 15 percent.

It's taken an entire year to move from 15-percent to 18-percent complete. That's a very respectable 20 percent increase.

Yet the exhibit shows that in order to reach 100-percent completion in the remaining 8 months of 1999, Canadian organizations are planning on increasing their project productivity in the April-to-August period by 272 percent. Newsflash! Individual organizations may, under extraordinary circumstances, be able to achieve that sort of productivity ramp-up in a potato chip factory, but it simply does not happen with complex intellectual work like Y2K projects."

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 06, 1999


Productivity will actually decrease this year, due to a number of factors, such as individuals taking time off to prepare, increasing y2k system failures, obsession with forums like this one, etc..

-- a (a@a.a), May 06, 1999.

Hah! There isn't enough people in all of Canada to sort out the problems in 8 months. The States probably have as many computer programmers as we have people up here in Canada...and our systems are almost as big....

-- Laura (concerned@home.com), May 06, 1999.

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