Just curious. Your feedback (pro/con) appreciated.

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

Answers

How's this for an answer: I don't know! [g]

The volume of both new posts and replies to posts has definitely been in decline for the past few weeks.

I think that most of the regulars (posters and lurkers) know the issues quite well now and there has not been a lot of "newsy" stuff to chew on recently. (Unlike some other Y2K forums, postings here don't degenerate into the personal invective that keep threads alive and start new threads [g].)

IMHO the "usefulness" of this site to the regulars will diminish in direct proportion to the amount of "good" news that is released. (I think this has happened already to some extent.) Unless there is some unexpected bad news (perhaps in regard to the nukes) then I think the pattern is set.

Having said that, I think there is value in having some sort of resource that Y2K newbies can go to for decent information about the electricity industry and Y2K. I know that one of the things that has helped me deal with Y2K have been the postings of FactFinder, Art, CL and other people who are actually working on the problem. With the honourable exception of Dan the Power Man on the EY forum, this has been the only place that I have found with a more balanced perspective.

Rick, whatever you decide to do about the forum, I just want to say thanks for providing the venue.

Regards

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

I think this site has been an excellent source of info, both technical and common, and I would hate to see it go down until we are out of the woods. There has been enough disinformation in the mainstream media, that some of these cold hard facts help me to determine my course of action. Keep up the the great work. (I know it is a lot of work)

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

It is still a regular stop for me. If some new reports are released about the power industry, I like to come here for some insight into what they are really saying. It's May and not much time is left until the big day, might as well see it thru the end imho.

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

The archives will always be useful.

Additionally, I feel islanding and electricity usage/rationing with respect to as yet undetermined regions may become appropriate.

~C~

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

rick,

i do/did spin...most in a position of responsibility within an organization end up, at one time or another, doing spin. it doesn't mean that he/she is a bad person with evil intent; most likely it is someone trying to maintain a sense of order in a rather difficult situation.

years ago, in manhattan, i worked for a large service bureau. on many different occasions, whether it was a new software application or the installation of new hardware...we encountered *MAJOR* problems.

part of my job was to placate the client base and *NOT* have them on the ceiling fearing the worst. many a night we went down to the wire.

sometimes we didn't quite make it. but we never told the client...yes, something is dreadfully wrong, there is a good chance that we have lost a years worth of financial data but there is a remote possibility that we can recreate it...i'll call you in a couple of days.

the point is...most out there are doing the same thing, sure it might not be teotwawki but it is not going to be a walk in the park either. when the people started to get the picture that all was not right in the world they reacted quickly and it was growing exponentially...that was when the spin was turned on full force.

that is precisely why this forum should forge onward. yes, we are in a lull right now and the spinmeisters have worked their magic but we are still approximately 7 months from d day.

we need balance...and this forum provides both sides of the issue. that is all one can ask for in this environment. there are new gi's out there everyday and they need to have a place to research both sides of the issue in order to make an educated decision.

remember, electricity relies on more than itself to provide the services that we have all come to depend on.

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

Rick,

I have derived a great deal of help from this site, mostly as an observer ("lurker" has too many voyeuristic, sordid overtones for me. If you "lurk" on THIS site, I know some head doctors who would just love to, um..."speak" with you). The technical inability which dogs my attempts to make rational, knowledgeable judgements and conclusions regarding power issues has been mollified by the contributors to this site. Thank you all much.

Because I know something of your background (viva la Rayfish!) and your current involvement in the power industry, you provide a unique and balanced analysis of all this brew-haha bubbling around. Such analysis is still very much needed (notwithstanding the likes of CL, Factfinder, et al), and will continue to be needed as long as there is the likelyhood that bovine feces will continue to be purveyed by bovine-feces-purveyors.

So, as time, motive and opportunity (not to mention your family) allow, keep the "zoomies" flowing.

Damn the torpedoes...

Knute

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

Knute,

Thanks - I needed that right about now. Your sense of timing is impeccable (it always was).

Rick

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

no, this site has not outlived it's usefulness. i suspect the lull in the action is temporary. if many companies fail to meet the june 1999 deadline for remediation, we will surely see more activity here as folks try to learn what's causing the delays.

i surf many sites looking for y2k information and euy2k.com is always my first stop. i am grateful for all your efforts, and the efforts of all the contributors, to add to the body of knowledge about y2k and it's effects on the electric utilities. don't go. pretty please.

mag

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

This only one of a few places on the net that I have been able to find balanced information on 2K.

While some believe the good news they hear in the mainstream press, anyone who analyzes media for a living, (and I do) knows that you must always look for the story's angle and the prejudice of the writer. We need to continue to talk about these issues, because so few are interested and there is so much noise out there. The average citizen doesn't have a clue about the seriousness of 2K, and indeed there are some otherwise intelligent people (mostly technophobes) who have come to conclusions based on worthless optimism. It comes down to this question, "Do you believe everything you read or do you do your own homework?" ANSWER: I believe a lot of what I've read here, because I do my own homework. Keep up the great work, this country needs a couple million more like yourself.

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

Rick,

Your site is an excellent resource. I look at it almost daily. I have worked two many years as a project planner to buy the spin meeisters spiel. There are two many unresloved power issues that need to be discussed. Hang in there!

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

Rick,

A lull is just that: a lull. Spring is on the trees, Monica Lewinsky is history, the bombs are dropping in Kosovo (at least for now), plenty of reasons for a drop in posts.

Come summer--or certainly fall--many people will begin to wonder about many things with regard to this thing called Y2k.

Keep the forum going, and many thanks for so doing. I've learned a lot.

:)

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

Rick,

I can relate to the deal with your family. Vocation as husband and father come first. (Try taking a break from this insanity and check out http://www.dads.org)

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

Rick,

This was, I believe, the first website I came to when I first heard of "y2k". It's been a huge learning curve for a "civie" like me and I am so thankful you were here to give such knowledgeable analyses of the reports. Because of this I have made modest preparations and I feel this will smooth out the "bump" in the proverbial road.

Also, I keep those articles by my computer about the "spin" doctors hired by the government and FDIC. The spin almost took me under, but because I kept coming here and there are solid posts pointing out weaknesses and underlying problems, I have held on to the preparations. We need you. We need Bonnie, and marianne and FM and Critt and all the many others who, as marianne said so well, bring balance to our understanding of all this confusion and rhetoric.

I personally hope the forum stays up.

thanks, LindaO

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

Rick, I am, what most would call, a lucker, almost from the beginning. I hope that you would not give up this forum. I have learned so very much from reading the posts daily. Not saying that I fully understand all that I read but when people like you and Bonnie and others take the time to post on here, I read all and try to gain a better understand. I have gained alot from this forum that I would not have learned. I have only posted once and that was to ask a question, to which I thank those that answered me. I just recently attended my first y2k seminar and it is cause of this forum that I was able to understand what was being said. They did not permit question from the floor but rather had people write down questions and selected from them. It was very interesting and I am planning on attending the other seminars that they have. Please do not stop this forum, I think it is very useful. I know it is a lot of work for all but a benefit for so many. Thanks for all of your hard work, time and effort that you have put into this. The best to all for the future.

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

Not by at least another ten or twelve months!

Take a breath please. Enjoy the lull.

There very well may be panic brewing in five or six months over Y2K in general and this site could do a lot to answer questions and calm fears should the need arise.

I'm very happy with the reassurances we've gotten but hasn't this whole affair been one of raising questions, getting answers, dealing with emotions, facts, rumors, and all the rest as the days, weeks and months unwind. Taking good news, bad news and indecipherable news as it comes?

I recall a lot of fear and anger and other coarse emotions being played out here. Boredom is another emotion. Let it play out. Interest in this will fluctuate. Shoot, wildly ecstatic is yet another emotion. Why not hang in there until we get that high up the scale?

Also, next year we're gonna need a post-game wrap-up! All sorts of questions will be waiting for us on the other side.

Of course the decision is yours Rick, if you are burned out on this then shoot some hoops, take the phone off the hook, put the forum on auto-pilot if you can. Or, as my 16 year old son might say; "Chill- out".

Just in case you choose to quit I'd like to say thanks to you and Bonnie and the other regulars and everyone else who contributed. You've all been my main source of Y2K news. It took a while to find you and if you go I'll have to go through all that hassle of finding a new set of friends to listen to, (or ignore if I feel like it).

Steve

-- Anonymous, May 06, 1999

Rick:

Please keep going. I check this site frequently. I heard you speak in Maryland a couple of months ago and truly respect you. I know it is difficult to keep going. I attended a meeting a GWU last week and heard a panel of community organizers talk about how the "happy talk" has dimished the size of their meeings. I see this myself. Novay2k gave yet another intro to y2k meeting tonight and had 4 people show up (3 from the same family).

Most of us here realize that there will be disruptions and need to have a bit of rationality to hang on to.

Thanks for your hard work.

sally www.y2kkitchen.com

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

Rick:

What would Admiral Rickover's response be, if he were alive today and could be asked for his counsel? His answer would be very direct and very simple: Carry on, Mr. Cowles.

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

In the last two or three months there has been an escalation on most Y2K forums of digs, vitriol, and other demonstrations of the nasty side of human nature. A meeting of minds more often becomes a "Na na, na Na nah, I'm right and you're wrong." clash of emotions, with no middle ground allowed. It's a credit to this forum that this type of thing happens infrequently here, but it does happen. Industry insiders are stung by "I don't believe you at all" implications in posts. On the other hand, I have noticed a few posts from the "we've found no problems" sector, the tenor of which might be described as a game of one-up manship, tinged with the attitude of "there can be no other valid view but mine because I work here and you don't." This is spotty and is not applied across the board. However, in my view, a desire seems to exist in some for validation of the premise that since reports of embedded systems problems have not been found to the extent first expected, then electric utilities will have no trouble. In some cases, a pattern of thought follows that premise, like the tail on a kite: If the electric industry is in good shape, then the rest of any potential Y2K problems will not be severe either. Lengthening that kite's tail is a preponderance of focus on embedded systems, as if that were the end all and be all of the potential for Y2K problems.

On this forum, and on others, I have seen rational posts from "outsiders" which accept that the electric industry embedded systems data to date has validity. Unfortunately, when this acceptance contains any hint of reservation, either because of other views on the ability to test for certain embeddeds, or because a person chooses a wider focus and perhaps can't follow the kite tail ideas, that is not an acceptable "victory" for some.

Well, I'm of the opinion that there are not two people anywhere on the face of this earth who will agree about everything. Anyone adopting an all or nothing attitude about convincing others to agree with them is practically doomed to disappointment and anger, whatever "side" they are on. People like Rick are the ones who get caught in the middle of the emotions attending a "my way or the highway" mindset.

Whatever position you take about the impact or non-impact of Y2K on electric utilities, I'd like to remind you of something. I was reading everything I could find about Y2K about a year and a half ago. There wasn't all that much; most people were asleep at the wheel, including those in electric utilities. Back then, there were industry folks who thought the whole thing was a hoax, and there were utilities which didn't have any organized Y2K project at all. Most of those which did were only working on mainframe remediation, and not with any fervor even for that.

I didn't see any posts or articles from engineers working in utilities back then, advocating an investigation into embedded systems, or prodding for more industry awareness. I did find this one guy who was trying his best to kick the industry in the pants and get them to CHECK things out. DO the tests before it was too late. FIND out what you have to fix before it's too late. Don't ASSUME anything! He was called a fear-monger by some.

And you know what? We don't even have to go into any of the arguments about embedded systems status right now, because from my vantage point, the good news is that the industry GOT LUCKY. Utilities finally did get on the ball and started looking, assessing, testing. They finally started finding out what the problems might or might not be. And God help us if those findings had turned out to be different, because if the tests had brought bad news the debate about whether the lights would stay on would have become pretty one-sided considering how slack the industry was in getting started.

Some industry insiders have readily acknowledged that without Rick Cowles' kick in the pants the utility situation likely would have been very different today. A few others appear to hate his guts because he had the audacity to scare them awake. I remember early 1998, and I admit I have a bit of bias left over from then. I'm going to try to explain why I don't feel completely comfortable accepting assurances from industry people, although I try my best to factor the good news reports into the overall situation. The bias I have left takes the form of nagging thoughts which surface sometimes when I read those "lights will absolutely stay on" assurances. One thought is, "Where were you a year and a half ago?" Another one is, "If the industry management and its engineers are so competent, why are we even discussing Y2K and utilities now? Why wasn't this all taken care of in plenty of time?" Another thought says, "Why are you so surprised and angry when some people doubt you? Being late to the big party makes your date wonder if you take committments seriously and responsibly. And will you show up late the next time, too, or not?"

I don't know if anyone has ever read Morris West's novel, "The Devil's Advocate". It's about a person assigned by the Vatican to investigate every nook and cranny of the life of someone who has been proposed for sainthood. The job of a devil's advocate is to be ruthless in looking for what might be amiss; to push and prod and investigate everything, to leave no stone unturned, no involved person not interrogated, no detail overlooked, until there is not a single shred or shadow of doubt remaining as a disqualifying factor. The character of a devil's advocate has to be forged in iron because anger and vilification always accompany the performance of his job. People want to believe the good, yet the devil's advocate must make them contemplate the possibility of bad. And most importantly, once he begins his appointed task, not the Pope himself may stop him from completing it, because whether good or bad is found, the investigation itself is to the ultimate benefit of all.

I want that ultimate benefit. There are devil's advocates in the Y2K arena, Rick Cowles among them, and their jobs should continue to the end. Declaring Y2K sainthood upon the electric utility industry can wait a little while. It might make us uncomfortable, it may raise emotions, we may find ourselves in the eventual position of revising previous conceptions, or we may have to compromise and find a valid middle ground. Or (horror of horrors!) we may have to agree to disagree, hopefully with civility, until the truth presents itself next year.

Do we still need this forum? Do we still need the investigation? I say, "Absolutely."

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

I have been following y2k for the past year (just a regular citizen - not in the electric industry)....The few sites I follow for truth (and not spin) include this forum.... The other sites I have faithfully followed for information that is sorely lacking in our local newspaper include General Accounting Office, Center for Strategic & International Studies, Dr. Ed Yardeni and a few others.... Please don't stop the forum,,,,there are many of us lurking about.... Truth is sorely lacking the public with regard to electric, nuclear power (as well as the chemical industry)..,,, Besides,,,,truth about the nuclear power plants should be forthcoming in July,,,,,we need this forum to set the facts straight !

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

Rick:

It ain't over till it's over. Still here. Appreciate the info.

Steve King

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

Rick,

Are you kidding? The best is yet to come. If you pull the plug now it will be like watching the NCAA finals, score is tied, there are 30 seconds left on the clock and your mother walks in the room, turns off the TV and tells you is time to go to bed!! You know you will be missing the best 30 seconds of basketball anywhere.

Power companies, as other industries, have been projecting that they will be Y2K "compliant" or "ready" anywhere between July and December 1999. Come July, should'nt we start knocking on doors asking if they met their goals? I cannot think of any better place to share that information than here.

I agree that most regulars to this forum, whether participants or lurkers, probably have a pretty good grasp on the problem and have made up their minds one way or the other on whether or how to prepare. And with the database of threads you have built, most newbies can come up to speed fairly quickly. Perhaps, then, the natural evolution of this forum will be from educating and alerting about the problem to checking if remediation efforts were successful.

No matter what you chose to do, you do have my gratitude for your efforts. Even if Y2K fizzles, I have learned a great deal about the power industry and the tremendous impact it has in our everyday life.

Thank you.

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

Rick: A note to say thanks for your hard work. We needed a respected sounding board to talk of our ideas of a possibly fearful future. I humbly propose, we will need a respected sounding board even more next year as some indviduals, companies, or governmental bodies crash becouse of the 'Y2K speed bump'. Richard Hurley

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

Rick, I feel this forum has directly contributed to your daughter's future and she can be very proud of her dad's courage and ideals. You have certainly set a lifelong example for her of tackling critical issues with global impact. Your "leading the charge" for so long to get utilities and nuclear plants up and moving on Y2k has directly altered the playing field for the good of all concerned.

This forum is, IMHO, the best resource for balanced, reliable, technical analysis and informed debate regarding Y2k. It is a daily "must read" for me and many others. I have learned a lot from both sides of the fence in many issues raised in this forum, particularly nuclear power, where the stakes are so high and the spin-free facts so rarely encountered. **THANK YOU, Rick and Bonnie!!!*** Also appreciated is the general absence here of mud-slinging plaguing other y2k boards.

Euy2k is an invaluable resource for disseminating information. Remember NERC's internal memos documenting its intent to: (1) withhold "readiness exceptions" data reported by certain utilities while reporting those utilities y2k ready in June 1999, as well as simultaneously (2) withholding data from DOE and the public regarding noncompliant utilities? Rick, your forum steered the course of this issue into public awareness as well. I had emailed several news outlets in February regarding these documents and was amazed at total lack of response from anyone. Next, impressed with the integrity and intelligence of the euy2k forum, I posted a "NERC info blackout/readiness exceptions" thread in mid-March and response was immediate. Over the next several weeks, NERC's memos were analyzed in depth here, and eventually even (gasp) reported in the main media. Obviously, NERC's current published data must still be viewed as incomplete, and it is far too soon to succumb to the warm fuzzies regarding readiness. What *about* those non-compliant utilities?? How *credible* are NERC's recent assurances that all "readiness exceptions" are trivial or irrelevant to y2k transitions?

Regarding the current calm before the storm: with less than eight months to go, we must continue to research and formulate conclusions based on seeking out *all* the facts. June, July, and September deadlines and reports lie ahead, and this forum's contribution to "history in the making" of the electric utilities issue is too vital to be laid to rest before its time.

Rick and Bonnie, thanks again for all you do! VTY, Malthusienne

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

Rick-

I think the answer has been made pretty clear by now, please keep the forum up.

My power company (PGE) hasn't made any positive reports that make me feel all that warm and fuzzy. They just keep pushing out their deadline for completion.

I don't think all of us are out of the woods just yet even though there's some sun coming through the trees...

Thanks again-this is still my first stop of the morning...

Jeff

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

Rick,

I check in here almost everyday. When I come across some Y2K/Utilities news, I always log-in here knowing I will read some great dialogue about the current news.

If it's not too much of a burden on you, I feel you should continue this forum. It's one of my "reality check" sites.

Greg

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

Thank you for all of the comments! I hadn't intended that my original question be interpreted such that I was considering taking down the euy2k.com website. While I haven't been able to put as much time into it recently as I would like due to job commitments, I'm personally gratified that the website and discussion forum retains value. That value is in large part due to all of us being able to remain focused on the topic, and to address issues in a (generally) civil manner. ;-)

The next several months will indeed be interesting.

(Oh, and as for the dropoff in traffic, that's pretty much de rigur at this time of the year in the online world. The weather's warming up, and people will be concentrating on outdoor pursuits for the next few months. When I ran a dialup BBS in the early to mid-1990's, traffic would start to decrease in late March / early April, and reach a low point in August. Then, in September, traffic would start increasing again. I don't expect this year, Y2k or no Y2k, to be any different.)

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

Thank you for all of the comments! I hadn't intended that my original question be interpreted such that I was considering taking down the euy2k.com website. While I haven't been able to put as much time into it recently as I would like due to job commitments, I'm personally gratified that the website and discussion forum retains value. That value is in large part due to all of us being able to remain focused on the topic, and to address issues in a (generally) civil manner. :-)

The next several months will indeed be interesting.

(Oh, and as for the dropoff in traffic, that's pretty much de rigur at this time of the year in the online world. The weather's warming up, and people will be concentrating on outdoor pursuits for the next few months. When I ran a dialup BBS in the early to mid-1990's, traffic would start to decrease in late March / early April, and reach a low point in August. Then, in September, traffic would start increasing again. I don't expect this year, Y2k or no Y2k, to be any different.)

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

Bonnie pretty much said it. I second her motion.

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

heck, why not leave it up?

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

Just wanted to warn you that the Sysop will erase any message that does not relate to the power industry. Watch out next time :)

BTW, I also thank you for this site. And I'll still visit it during the 'summer slowdown'.

-- Anonymous, May 07, 1999

Rick, we used to have a favorite saying at the Army's Mountain Warfare Training Center that described our approach to avalanche training.

"If you want to learn about dragons, you must go to the den of dragons." To often well meaning commanders, trying to save training money would try to instruct the hazards posed by avalanches by merely showing a slide presentation. To fully understand the magnitude of an avalanche you need get out on the ground, and see and hear several. Walk amongst the avalanche debris sometimes the size of boxcars; see how far they travel, see how difficult it is to probe, dig and search for survivors or bodies. Bottom line, learn to identify the hazards, and how to avoid them.

This site is the den where I go to learn about the Y2K dragon lurking in the utility industry. It gives me a better picture of the real hazards. From this site my family now may have half a chance.

Rick, I thank you and the many contributers here who have allowed us all to better understand the dragon.

(PS: the above was not a paid advertisement for the Dragon Ranch)

-- Anonymous, May 08, 1999

Rick,

Has EUY2K outlived its usefulness? An interesting but puzzling question. One deserving considerable thought at some point in time, but at this juncture, rather premature in my view. From the perspective of someone in the industry directly involved in our Year 2000 project, I have been consistently fascinated by the level of interest, maturity of debate and tactful discussion of this important issue. Of greater fascination is the interaction between participants in this forum and the celebrity bestowed upon some by their peers. Some clearly earned and deserved.

Rick, I sincerely appreciate the enviable foresight and considerable time and effort you have expended on this undertaking. It has not been a wasted endeavor! I have learned many lessons in this forum and will continue to visit daily for as long as it lasts.

Our project team began with the clear understanding that with increased competition in the industry, the electric utility that emerged unscathed on January 1, 2000 would be aggressively selling that success on January 2, 2000. We had determined early on that one of the most critical issues to deal with was customer and employee communications. We were convinced that the only approach was to tell all, good and/or bad and were determined that our employees would know and understand the facts. To this day, we eagerly sponsor and participate in community workshops that include church groups, civic groups, schools, colleges, businesses and residential customers. We maintain a corporate website and a central point of contact for e-mail queries that are routed to the appropriate department for answers from experts. We have and will continue to participate in any contingency drills and all scheduled status updates requested or required by regulatory agencies and regional councils.

I readily admit, to my embarrassment, that I have often found interests and perspectives from industry outsiders that I had initially failed to give sufficient consideration and apply to the interest of my customers. I have since done so. To me, this has been the greatest benefit I have gained from this forum. I thank you and the forum participants for that. Just as readily, I would caution those that presume that industry insiders are self serving, misleading manipulators of fact to fiction. Without their participation, this would be a waste of time and is precisely the problem found in other forums that serve only to diminish industry credibility and destroy their own. These forums are the ones most often avoided by those in the know.

My vote is absolutely not, EUY2K has not outlived its usefulness. Besides, where would your forum participants go, regardless of the side of the fence they are on, to say I told you so!

Thanks again, JT

-- Anonymous, May 08, 1999

Rick, I feel this site is very helpful to me. I visit every day to gain new info or insite into news reports and happenings. Thanks to everyone who is a part of this site. Thanks Rick, please keep up the good work!

-- Anonymous, May 08, 1999

Rick,

While the embedded system problem certainly doesn't look as nasty as it once did, and I personally don't expect widespread, longterm power failures in the U.S., I think there's still the possibility of some unpleasant surprises. Many power companies, and even EPRI, have relied too much on type testing; I will quote to you your own words in an email to me just a few months ago, regarding one of your clients who was relying on type testing for checking the embedded components in an electrical switchyard: "Very dangerous, in my opinion." Well, if type testing was dangerous then, I assume it's dangerous now. I think that Mark Frautschi's research still stands up; I note that in the latest Kelly survey, Frautschi is a 6.2 on the WDCY2K scale, and Harlan Smith is a 8.3 or thereabouts. It's nice when an anonymous engineer gets on this forum and says he has tested 50 or 100 embedded systems and found no problems--but statistically, that info might or might not be significant. (I recollect one major power company whose inventory and assessment turned up 300,000 automated systems.) There's still ongoing, highly technical debate over, say, the "Beach bug" (which I think would be quite rare in its manifestation but not exactly impossible), and even NERC has warned power companies against relying upon type testing--to no avail, apparently. I consider Dick Mills an intelligent, rational, informed man--and he still seems worried.

I'm still not convinced we're out of the woods with the nukes, especially given the recent revelations concerning French nukes.

Overseas generally, if the NIC, CIA, UN, etc., are to be believed, there remains significant risk of power grid failures in various countries.

On a broader front, I just read the transcript of Koskinen's teleconference with the APEC Y2K summit in late April; it is the most worried I've seen him. Somebody finally, finally, gave this boy a lesson in software metrics--and I suspect it was the top expert of all, Capers Jones, who did it. Check out Scott Johnson's interview with Jones in today's (May 10th) "Y2K Today." Jones, who is in almost daily contact with Koskinen, the UN, etc., is still worried and says that the Feds' reports of progress have been "disingenuous." Three decades of software metrics indicate that many of the rosy PR reports simply can't be true. I suspect the same, to a lesser extent, with some of the power company reports.

The coming months will be interesting as reality and illusion start to collide--especially on Wall Street!

-- Anonymous, May 10, 1999

As a journalist, I have noticed a slow down in Y2K stories because there have been so many other unfortunate things happening in the world - Columbine, Oklahoma, Kosovo. I talked with the folks at Walton Foods - a supplier of bulk foods and people have actually been cancelling their orders because "They haven't heard much about it lately - so they figure everythings fixed." On the other hand, I recently interviewed one of the Public Affairs Officer for the Illinois State police because they are setting up "command posts" in each district for New Year's Eve. He said that since they don't know what's going to happen, they aren't going to take any chances. He also said that he didn't feel that any of the utility companies would tell us the "whole story" because of possible litigation. So, IMHO - we need this site. If for nothing else but a touch of sanity in the insane world of Y2K.

-- Anonymous, May 10, 1999