The Increasing Speed of the Cyclegreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I attended a seminar held by Microsoft in 1993, where they were touting their latest and greatest software to soon arrive. While the software show was fine, one statement made stuck with me:
The business cycle has moved from 7 to 10 years to 18 to 24 months, roughly in synch with the release of new operating systems/Intel chips. The reason is technology. And everything will continue to speed up as a result as our world moves faster and faster.
Bill Gates recent book, Business at the Speed of Thought, seconds and forwards this idea.
In short, this opens the idea that a revolution in business and industry in a relatively short period of time only 1 to 2 years. Its now the norm, where in the 50s it was unheard.
Senator Inhofe of Oklahoma gave a speech in March where he spoke of a general who assured him that we would have three years warning before intercontinental ballistic capability was attained by any currently non-capable nation. Seven days later, on Aug. 31, North Korea launched a three-stage Taepo Dong I missile, that scattered a small payload off the coast of Alaska.
Our government, set into fixed election cycles, is not able to keep up with the speed of our age. The revolution that rapidly occurs in business cannot occur quickly enough in our government to keep pace with our world. Too many in government grew up in these slower cycles and still try to operate in these slower cycles.
The rapidity of these cycles prohibits us citizens from steering our nation via election cycles that dont allow a revolution at the ballot box often enough. Maybe the wealth of information (noise) at that high level simply deters anyone from gaining enough clarity to adequately steer anything. But if thats true, then the sheer speed of our society outruns our capabilities and Y2K or not, were heading for a fall.
-- Brett (email@example.com), May 06, 1999
Couldn't agree more. If only we would all realize that Y2k is a wake- up call! Whether you are a doomer or a polly ... there is a southbound trajectory about our country. Use some common sense and prudently prepare --- we're going to see some challenges in our future.
-- tim daniels (firstname.lastname@example.org), May 06, 1999.
Couldn't agree more.That's why it is always an "us & them"scenario.
Another example of the time lag in thinking between governments & business is the concept of nationalism.Many businesses think of the world as their marketplace(E-Commerce has something to do with this shift in perception) and the physical location of the business itself is more and more determined by economic factors rather than sentiment/loyalty/nationalism.
This change in attitude on the part of business,represents a very grave threat to taxation revenue.
You also have to ask whether a career politician is ever going to have the aptitude/inclination/time to keep up to date with technology when they are so busy fossiking around.
-- Chris (email@example.com), May 06, 1999.
I think our congress is very aware of the business cycle thing. Their foreign policy shows that. Nationalist = bomb em. Socialist = buy em.
The real ? is can "they" keep the rich rich on the backs of the poor, without the poor getting too violent.
Good topic. I think limiting terms, and controlling contributions would level the playing field. The sheer speed of our society also limits the damage of economic falls.
-- R. Wright (firstname.lastname@example.org), May 07, 1999.
R. Wright -
On what do you base that last statement? Speed is a mixed blessing. As has been pointed out elsewhere, if you're driving Formula 1, a "bump in the road" results in absolute havoc. The stock market moves both up and down in massive volumes at great speed. "Information velocity" would seem to be very much a two-edged sword.
-- Mac (email@example.com), May 07, 1999.