This has been asked many times on this forum. IMHO, let's shoot for a July - August time frame. The down hill slide has already begun, most of us just don't know it yet. The herd will become aware during the dog days of summer. Prepare, prepare, prepare!

Flame away !!!!!!

-- SCOTTY (BLehman202@aol.com), May 06, 1999

Answers

I'd say September to December myself. I think most sheeple will try to ignore y2k until the last minute. But you could be right, and I will certainly keep my eyes open.

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), May 06, 1999.

No flame.. for sure we are approaching a mathematical singularity at an unknown rate. Panics are amazing things. Read the classic by Charles Mackay from 1848, "Extraordinary Delusions and the Madness of Crowds." Up until almost the day of the panics in 1893, 1907, and 1929, almost no one realised what was about to happen. The panic of 1999 could be triggered by any of a number of disparate events, e.g., the GPS rollover in August. It could be sooner, if we begin to suffer software failures July 1 (Gartner Group). It could result from an early crash in the equity market. Anyone who imagines that they will have ANY warning of the impending panic needs to read some serious history. IMHO, all us GI's had better be preparing as fast as we can. Do not expect any substantive warning.

-- Tennessean (holladayl@aol.com), May 06, 1999.

IMO the people who will panic will be the ones who wait until the last minute, the last week of December. you know, 'well, now we're through with Christmas, maybe we better look into this y2k thing.'

i think there will be a slow but steady increase in GI's throughout the year, but unless there comes a shortage that causes the masses to *really* sit up and take notice, it won't happen until late december.

-- Cowardly Lion (cl0001@hotmail.com), May 06, 1999.

scotty, I hope I can finish up my preparations before it hits as well(and pull myself out of the deep end)here in madison the local hobbits take a lot for granted,and being the center for government and the wisconsin national guard.I have become quite a bit martial law paranoid(thanks Invar!),so it's always nice to be told to chill from someone who is prepairing,thanks

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), May 06, 1999.

Strictly speaking, I question a single "panic" event. I agree that overall, many Y2K issues must be faced, including lack of electricity, fuel, money, water & food. However, I don't see a single event occuring. I really see a lot of "mini" panics STRICTLY CONTROLLED (WITH GUNS) by Big Brother. Even if the power goes out on New Year's Evil, that would be just one event.

I'm really keeping my eye on Russian & Chinese actions. I'm especially concerned about China decided this is a good time to re- take Taiwan. With US multinationals having a big stake in Taiwan, this will not be much fun at all.

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), May 06, 1999.

When folks go to their favorite grocery store and find a few of the items they use on a daily basis in short supply they will begin to STOCK UP.

Watch the shelves!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 06, 1999.

When will WHICH panic begin? IMO the first panic will be a bank run and a stock market crash. I'd guess it late this year, no sooner than November. But as long as the lights stay on and there is food on the store shelves there won't be a real panic. Panic around bank runs might strip the shelves temporarily but I suspect the shelves would fill up again after that, perhaps with different prices on some goods.

Governmental powers are capable of handling this sort of panic, especially as public outcry would drown out any concerns over the constitutionality of any corrective measures. But any breakdowns beyond public confidence will be harder for the government to handle. If the utilities are down or mostly down or if the supply chain is broken, then a real panic would begin.

Some folks on this forum are very concerned about what the government might do post-Y2K. I agree that is a concern, but another concern is that the government might not be able to do anything at all. Even though I don't expect it to happen, I believe that I am much better prepared than the government could ever hope to be for TSHTF.

-- Steve Hartzler (s.hartzler@usa.net), May 06, 1999.

According to our government, we are on the verge of a new era of prosperity. This is false. Look at the farmers, the trade deficit, the trade gap, consumer savings, the percentage of american households with less than 1000 dollars in the bank, and other things. My guess is the stock market will go substantially higher and then sometime in October, the reality of the situation will strike. People will see that things are not good. Money will flow from banks and the stock market will have a big drop. The world situation will be further complicated by y2k.

-- cw (cwiowa@uiowa.edu), May 06, 1999.

Hey wasn't the first panic event suppose to happen on 2/1/99 when the airline reservation systems crashed and all airline scheduling activity stopped.....DAMN THEY WORKED...what happened guys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-- wayne (wayneindallas@yahoo.com), May 06, 1999.

I'm with crono, and probably more likely December --------

UNLESS, some major crisis precipitates a Y2K unrelated panic/chaos.

People just ARE/WILL NOT pay attention and won't unless there is some major shakeup. Yardeni predicts growth until the 4th quarter.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), May 06, 1999.

late jan. or feb 00 most people need to be hit in the back of the head before they see anything

-- duh (psycho@got.ptsd), May 06, 1999.

Panic will begin whenever there is a major Y2k failure that can't be hidden.

-- No Spam Please (No_Spam_Please@anon_ymous.com), May 06, 1999.

I agree with Spam.

My gues the failures will be noticably dislike normal by mid-November or early December.

-- Jim the Window Washer (Rational@man.com), May 06, 1999.

Scotty,

I predict that the panic will begin will begin on the weekend of July 17 - 18, 1999. I base this on:

1. Most of the just-in-time manufacturing systems also use materials requirements planning (MRP) to forecast their component needs six months into the future. They will reach that event horizon in late June - early July. This will cause their production to start getting fouled up.

2. Many companies and government agencies will miss yet another deadline. It will finally dawn on the upper classes that we are not going to make it. When they start pulling their money out of market, a full-scale panic will ensue.

-- Incredulous (ytt000@aol.com), May 06, 1999.

I'm with you there Scotty. July will see a turn in the herd. August will see martial law. Count on it. Why? Gartner's estimate is that July and October will see significant failures with July being 80 times normal and October 800 times normal. Different types of systems. These failures will appear in people's work environments. GPS rollover is in August and I can only assume that the gov will try to preemptively manage that fiasco. They will use real and fomented problems of July as excuses. Watch for ruses.

-- David (C.D@I.N), May 07, 1999.