Reponse to Mr. Poole re: Oil and well heads : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Mr. Poole--

Ever been to a well head Mr. Poole? I have, over 100 of them! Been to a Command and control center Mr. Poole?

I have! Been to an Emergency Spill Response Center? Been to an oil field Mr. Poole? I have, Kuparak, in

Alaska, right nex t door to Prudoe Bay. Been to an off shore platform? Been to a refinery? Been to a load facility

Mr. Pole? Ever seen a refrigeration unit, a pumping station, a monitoring station, a "Pig" (separates product)?

Ever driven an 18 wheeler, shifted a Road Ranger, pulled a set of doubles, low boy, pup, or a container...Mr Poole?

I have.

Can you make a compound miter cut...Mr Poole. Any idea of what a Vernier is for? How about calipers, inside or

out? How many pieces in a Plumb bob... Mr. Poole? Ever owned a Poulan.. Mr. Poole? Maybe a Stihl or

Husqvarna, Mc Culloch, or a Homelite?

Know the difference between 2 phase and 3 phase? Ever honed a cylinder , polished a crank, replaced a throwout

bearing, turned a drum, split a rim, choked a log, run a bead, laminated a board, Mr. Poole?

Ever run a gang punch, typed at a keypunch, wired an interpreter board, queued a batch job, converted hex, written

BAL, debugged JCL, used CPM, heard of Holleriths' code, run a sorter. MR. POOLE? I have.

How about run a Chicago, a 5 ton brake, been in a coffin, stabbed a pipe, walked a plate, formed a walk, screeded a

slab, muck raked a pour, insulated an attic, laid down 3-tab, cut a broach, turned a lathe, seen a Cincinnati, pulled a

tranny, ridden a freight, read Karl by Karl, sung a Wobblies song, gutted a deer, milked a cow, formed a curb, sweat

some copper, soldered a stator, polarized a regulator, made a cold call, prospected a client, posted to the GL,

reconciled an invoice, called up an AR, bucked a cord, rolled a 90, split a shake, plumbed a wall, cut a stringer,

pulled a crab pot, shucked a bushel, picked a flat, pulled green chain, wired a J box, installed a pad,

tied a rebar, run a stinger, set up a batter board, laid a course, filet a fish, baked from scratch, planted a tree,

configured a bread board, degaussed a part, peaned a pipe, flushed a line, purged a system, milled a part, set a stop

bit, checked the parity, sent a packet, jumpered a switch, worked on a token ring, posted a JE, packed a bearing,

pulled a differential, tacked some TYVEK, snapped a bean, cooked a casserole, kneaded dough, cleaned a stall,

squawked a transponder, called a tower, filed a plan, crabbed an approach, taken a bearing, recovered a spin,

packed a 'shute, tuck and rolled, trimmed a flap, shut down 1 mag', filed a cross country, ridden in a crummy, tapped

a thread, died a thread, threaded a pipe, laid down sod, set a post, aerated a yard, picked some crawlers, tilled a field,

bucked a bale, repelled a face, pulled a piston, written SPS, nested a loop, polled a station, set an

accumulator,called a SUBR, pulled a chain, wiggled a line, walked a section, set a corner, changed a diaper, darned a

sock, starched a shirt, changed a mantle, bet a horse, called a bluff, hit 17, wired a panel, trimmed a door, sewn a

button, faced a shelf, flipped a burger, set blue tops, papered a wall, routered an edge, trimmed a sail, set a dwell,

changed the points, traced a short, built a matrix, cut some hair, read a blue print, pulled a Layton box, installed an

irrigation system, pulled an order, shipped UPS, issued PO's, expedited B/O's, searched secondary source of supply,

LIFO'ed, FIFO'ed, bartered, negotiated, MR. POOLE!!!!???? . ....

Know the difference between a helix and a spur gear? Could you draw a pinion or an impeller, tell me how many

orbitals in an automatic? Do you know the difference between a winding and a brush, a bendix and a flywheel, a

ho-axe and a fro? Can you give me the formula for head pressure or horse power? Mr. Poole? Still here? Good!!

Can you sharpen a saw, gap a plug, change a ring, build a rheostat, fix a toaster, cut a gasket from a sheet, caulk a tub,

pull a trap, install a header , cut a truss, use an optical comparator, glaze a window, submitted a MRO, dun a

vendor, drive a Jitney, ..... Mr. Poole?

I'm able.

Bet ya don't know the difference between a cat head and a rat hole, a chain hand from a motor hand , a tool pusher

from a down holer, sweet gas from sour apples! No, I don't imagine you've ever been to a well head,... No, I don't

imagine intelligentsia would? So why then are you so sure it's A OK?

How *will* you help the community, Mr. Poole? What *do* you have to offer?

I need to know how to extract alchol from wood. I need to know the proper parabola to maximize the rays of the sun.

I need to know about frictionless bearings, magnetic trains, tomatilles, edible tubers, extract heat from soil, grind a

glass into a magnifier. Can you help me with these things.... Mr. Poole CET?

I can't repay you in denari, but perhaps I can impart some small thing in return.

When did you lose sentience and arrive at sententious...

Have you been a lifelong boor, or are you rather hiding timidity in the face of tumultuousness...

Come... are we beings of consciousness ..or merely conjugational...

Cry a little for the species...Concieved in love and dignity..

Now relegated to indignation.. reduced to chaos..

Is it randomness, these selections we make...

Is it evolution these propensities...

How, oh how have we become so self centered....

So self important, so impotent...

Mere vibrations over vocal chords invoke the irrevocable...

And now, now then, having arrived here....

After all the cycles, of risings and fallings, of sun and stars...

All these eons of preparation ... heading toward destiny...

Please tell me where we are...

It comes to mind a video about a young child that fell into a cage, no bars, but no less a cage. San Diego Zoo, I think.

Lying unconscious and lifeless, one of the tribe of gorilla, picked up the strange, yet, familiar babe and nutured it,

protected it from possible harm. What instinct, what spirit, has waned from our consciousness? How far have we

evolved? Too far?? A Spirit of goodness, a Spirit of greatness awaits.....But it will not impart itself to us until we


Good health and God Bless Mr. Poole.

P.S>Historically intelligentsia are the first to be purged ya know. Got baseball hats? Trade ya one of mine.

-- spun@lright (, May 06, 1999



I, for one, am sincerely impressed by your awesome skills.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (, May 06, 1999.

Uh, Mikey, any chance you have a few months free from December 1999 on? We've got the master bedroom prepared and will take real good care of you .....

-- BigDog (, May 06, 1999.

Yeah - you can keep watch at "The Retreat".

You realise of course that CET-mind will want PROOF of all of the above with HOT LINKS (and I don't mean sausages!)

Great post! LOL

(But oh so true...)

-- Andy (, May 06, 1999.

Damn man! It might have been easier to list the things that you don't know how to do! The others are right, you'd better be able to provide linked references ;) Tee hee...

-- d (d@dgi.old), May 06, 1999.

Big Dog,

Most of us generalists can do 80% of that list and have skills that aren't listed,,, just depends on where you been and what you been doin' for the last 40-50 years.

Another Martha's son,

-- CT (ct@no.yr), May 06, 1999.



But then you should be in a perfect position to answer the question that Andy can't: name some of these things that will fail due to Y2K bugs and cut off the flow of oil.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (, May 06, 1999.

CT, most can do 80% of that list, but can most do 80% right?

Don't feel bad. I only have 75% of those listed, but I am learning!

BigDog, you ole pup, you...

-- J (, May 06, 1999.

Thank you for the honest answer Mr. Poole You have already answered your own question.

-- spun@lright (, May 06, 1999.


If you can't do it right, you can't do it.

Know your way around things that go boom? Can you make it in your kitchen.

Ever put together an 18 wheeler from a box?

Ever built a foundation, put in a well, a triple loop electical system that meets county codes,,, in 10 countys?

Do you have a contractors lic. in two states?

Did you grow up on a farm/ranch and get your first job at age 12,, at a bigger ranch?

Have you tatooed, branded, taged, casterated, or polled cattle?,,, or traded them in the commodity pits? Do you know the differance between an intermucular, subcutainiose, and venos shot? ( I learned how to do them,,, not spell them ). Do you know what a Put or a call is,,, can you soup up your own PC?

Can you build a water wheel? A forge,,, can you shape, aneel, braze, solder, weld, cut, temper, or cast with a homemade forge?,,, Can you fish? Can you TIG, MIG, Gas, and Zap?,,, can you carbon arc?

Have you ever cut down a 20' in dia. Redwood tree?,,, and then delt with it? How about draging $150,000 worth of Mobil home thru 2' of mud up a hill with a D-8 cat in the dead of winter,,, in a rain forest?

Been there, done that,,, just don't spell too good,

-- CT (ct@no.yr), May 06, 1999.

"Ever run a gang punch, typed at a keypunch, wired an interpreter board, queued a batch job, converted hex, written BAL, debugged JCL, used CPM, heard of Holleriths' code, run a sorter. MR. POOLE? I have."

Hey, yea, me too, all of the above! I have!!! Am I in? <:)=

PS - Nice post, spun@lright.

-- Sysman (, May 06, 1999.

As someone living in California where the price of gasoline has increased some 40% in the last month and still continues to climb...

Mr. Poole wrote, "name some of these things that will fail due to Y2K bugs and cut off the flow of oil"

The way I see it the flow of oil does not need to be cut off in order to impact people and cause a negative shift in the economy. If there is a decrease in availability or the desire of the oil companies to simply increase their profits by taking advantage of the publics perception of Y2k disruptions then there will be an impact on people and it will cause discomfort.

With my recent experience, here in California, I am sure from first hand experience that things break within the production and shipping of oil products and that these disruptions can have a direct impact.

Are you so sure that things don't break in this industry? Are you so sure that things wont break due to y2k within this industry? Can you offer proof that this is the case? Can you offer proof that nothing will occur within the oil industry that will cause me to pay $2.50 or higher for a gallon of gas? I don't think so.

How will that impact this city where everyone drives a car? How will that hurt the average consumer when they must spend more of their money to commute to their jobs and less on other goods such as food?

Right now the average price for regular unleaded gasoline in my area is about $1.55. Supreme is up around $1.73. This is because of two refineries that had "difficulties" and there was no mention of Y2k as being a cause. The news said that one refinery went off line for a month to do some maintenance and when they came back up things just didn't work right so they went down again. I'm not sure if they are back up yet.

So, refineries break. Shortages happen. Oh, and maybe the oil companies have a profit motive too (maybe they can make up a little of that revenue they spent on solving their Y2k problems if there are some "shortages")

Factor in a couple of simple y2k problems, not only nationwide but possibly worldwide, that would have a few refineries down for a period of time and things might get ugly.

Mike ========================================

-- Michael Taylor (, May 06, 1999.

You wrote,,,,

"Ever run a gang punch, typed at a keypunch, wired an interpreter board, queued a batch job, converted hex, written BAL, debugged JCL, used CPM, heard of Holleriths' code, run a sorter. MR. POOLE? I have."

Hey, yea, me too, all of the above! I have!!! Am I in? <:)=


Sure,,, but I'd be quiet about it after the roll-over if it goe's bad.

-- CT (ct@no.yr), May 06, 1999.

CT - Believe me, I know.

Signed, John Do... err, Sysman. <:)=

-- Sysman (, May 06, 1999.


It is a sad but true truth,,, no matter what happens, you will be blamed ,,I hope the rest of us little guys can hold it together long enough to contain the lightning.

-- CT (ct@no.yr), May 06, 1999.


Of COURSE things break now; that's a point that I make repeatedly at my Web site. In fact, that mitigates AGAINST Y2K doom and gloom, because these systems fail NOW, and we work around them.

When a Doomlit points to something and says, "if a Y2K bug killed this, bad things would happen," the first question out of my mouth is, "OK, so what do they do NOW when that thing fails?" ... because the answer to that question will usually demonstrate that the Doomlit scenarios are almost always overstated.

And just for the record, I wasn't talking about the flow of oil stopping abruptly and completely; I was indeed talking about a reduction in overall imports due to a flow stoppage at one or two points.

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (, May 06, 1999.


Would you like to address why you think all ports and etc. will work?

The ships?,,, cover things like 'puter controlled balast,,,, you know they turn turtle if balast is wrong. How bout Nav,,, got radar,,, gps... a clock?,,, are they compliant?,,, do you have any idea what it takes to make a pencil?,,, a piece of paper?,, a supertanker?,,, and make it work?,,, all of it?

-- CT (ct@no.yr), May 06, 1999.

"Of COURSE things break now; that's a point that I make repeatedly at my Web site."

Yes, we know Stephen. This is one link that you do know how to post. Does your site get paid by hit or something? dO yoU NOt THinK tHaT MosT oF THe RegUlarS have been there?

We have about 50 PCs, and our mainframe where I work. In the past 5 years we have lost 2 PC hard drives, 3 PC monitors, and 1 mainframe drive. Failures.

We develope systems, in other words, write programs. The developers have software "failures" hourly, until they get the program doing what it should. No big deal, part of the development process.

We also have production systems. Programs that have been debugged, declared "ready" and running, usually having run many times. We also have production "failures." All kinds, usually data related. This is when people start looking funny, working late, and just being generally grumpy. It's no fun when production fails, whatever the reason, software or hardware.

Y2K is going to bring many failures, many many more than business as usual. All at relatively the same time. So many, that no one knows.

Accidents happen all the time, usually two cars running into each other. Every once in a while, under just the right conditions, fog on a freeway for example, we have a hundred car accident. The conditions will be here in less than eight months.

What your point on normal failures has to do yith Y2K leaves me clueless. <:)=

-- Sysman (, May 06, 1999.

Stephen, the question has never been "Will they all fail at once?" because the answer to that is clearly "NO." (simple test psych, any "all" or"none" has to be false in the real world.

The proper question is "Will we be able to work around whatever percentage does break?"

I am CERTAIN we can work around the first 4 or 5 things that break in any organization. doesn't matter what they are, we can get around them. The more valid question is HOW fault tolerant are we, in each organization. Can we get around a 3% failure rate? 10%? 20%?

NONE of us has been able to quantify the fault tolerance of ANY of the organizations that have been discussed in a coon's age here on the forum.


-- chuck, a Night Driver (, May 06, 1999.

Turn TURTLE? Oh come on CT, I was LOL at a towboat just yesterday. The engineer forgot to shut off the pump to the bow-starboard trim tank and the overflow had popped up and was putting a hundred gallons or so a minute on the forward deck. PS - she did not sink - just tipped a bit. And you want to know something - they don't have just computers to steer ships - they have backup systems.

-- Paul Davis (, May 06, 1999.

Mikey...I just want to know one thing. Do you already have a wife??? I am one of the lucky ones. Hubby can do all those things too. You learn alot when you are from Alaska. But if something should happen to hubby, be nice to have a back up. LOL

Gotta handy man?? Fortunately I do


-- Taz (Tassie, May 06, 1999.


Over heard recently on board the Valdez II during inyourendo testing of backup NAVCOM communication systems. Exxon said, "the test was deemed a "GREAT SUCCESS"


First Mate --Aye capin, but whit way duz ya rekon N x nw is???

Captain --- Jus look at that little thingy there, the won that sez, NEWS on it, sheeesh!!!

-- spun@lright (, May 06, 1999.


On this thread we now have not one, but two, of the concepts that are used to argue that nothing bad will result from Y2K:

1. We have routine failures or errors now and are able to work through them.

2. We can simply revert to manual or backup modes.

Mssrs. Poole and Davis -- the untenable weak point in your positions is that you attempt to extrapolate the capability of working around one program error or one failed control to an equal capabillity given any number of errors or failures.

And, although several people have called this to your attention, you ignore this weakness in the hope that if a lie is repeated often enough it will be believed.

Surely, even you recognize that at some point in time the number of failures in a system becomes overwhelming to that system. You do, don't you? You haven't mentioned this.

No one here claims that every line of code or every control circuit is going to fail, and, speaking only for myself, I don't claim that single failures will be disasterous for the human race. So, we're not talking about single point failures. We're talking about cumulative failures.

As you point out we have single point failures daily.

Of course you don't point out that some of these result in explosions or other losses of life -- we've all seen reports of explosions and deaths at various industrial sites this year.

You are rightly quick to note that not all such incidents can be attributed to Y2K.

But, they do serve notice that any process failure can result in death, injury and/or property damage.

Rather than try to think up cute new labels for those of us who don't think we're going to get through the next couple of years without serious problems (e.g., 'doomlits'), why don't you try to address the weakness of your arguments?

Mr. Poole, for example, could take a major industrial process -- perhaps the process of extracting oil, pumping it to a port, loading it on tankers, sailing the tankers to another port, offloading the oil, refining it into useable petroleum products, and distributing those products to the end users. Then, he could investigate the number of computerized control circuits that typically make up this process. Finally, he could report on redundancy of these units and the number that can be operated manually, and the number of individuals available to operate the controls manually, and any loss of efficiency in the process that accrues from manual operation.

Redundancy is a key issue. Many processes use redundant controls, so that if one fails the other can take control. Works well as long as they don't both fail at the same time (Y2K mode!).

We'd also need to know how many of these controls can fail before the entire process is slowed to various levels of output; 90% of capacity, 80%, 50%, and so on.

And, of course, we should also have an economic impact statement from Poole ---- if we only get 85% of the oil supply we depend on, for example, what does this do to the price of gas at the pump.

In other words, guys, think the problem through. Do your homework before you rant about daily failures and manual bypasses. If you even honestly [key word here] consider these factors you'll be forced to abandon your cherished positions. At the very least (a very optimistic viewpoint) you'll have to admit that Y2K has great potential for major problems -- which seems to be the concensus of the rest of us.

-- De (, May 06, 1999.


You're my man. You've learned your lessons well and will have a better chance to survive that Mr. Poole.

How do I know? I've done a lot of what you have done, including being a robot on a green chain. Still have your muscles?

I commend you for being a persistent realist and wish you the best.

-- Not Again! (, May 06, 1999.

All right, ANYONE who has 75% or more of the listed skills and experience can stay with us. (I'll have to buy a lot more beans, no, not beans because of bathroom issues, uh ....)

-- BigDog (, May 06, 1999.

A blue collar guy, with the heart of a poet.

A man after my own heart. :-)

-- Deborah (, May 06, 1999.

Anybody here sick of playing 'My dingaling is bigger than yours........'


spun@lright........we're all duly impressed with you I'm forgot a couple of things........spank the monkey, yank the chicken etc.

-- Craig (, May 06, 1999.

-- Big Dog--

Thanks for the RSVP.

RE: Throne (sub- reading,office,privy,head,etc.) room;

There was an interesting project up North a few years ago addressing same. Seems, in a effort to bring a little slice of civiliztion to the natives, someone designed a self contained septic system that clarified and recycled the water. Water is a Blue Chip commmodity when your spittle freezes before it hits the ground. Also permafrost is not too condusive to perk. I'm not sure what ever happened to the project but it is widely told that if your real quiet, standing in awe of the Northern lights, you can still hear the sound of laughing and squealing in some long forgotten dialect.

-- spun@lright (, May 06, 1999.

SHEESH Craig, the only thing I can think of that he missed is Gandy Dancer. well then there's programming, and unjamming or repairing the keypunch (I STILL have an open offer for 2 Card Saws), Delivering a baby, sutured a cut, debrided a wound or burn, done an escharotomy, shoed horse/mule (*), dowsed successfully, planned a deffense, (time to get out "Time Enough For Love" to compare the lists).

(*) THis is the only item in my additions I haven't gotten to.


-- chuck, a Night Driver (, May 06, 1999.

Mikey- After adding my little items, I went back and re-read the list. I am, if not in awe of the claimed skills, at least in awe at the ability to TALK the LANGUAGE of the several skill sets. I recognize blue collar references to actions i have seen or have done, by other names.

That list is, while quite a bit longer, no less as good as Heinlein's list. though, Heinlein's list is set for a less mechanized society. (See "Time Enough For Love" Robert Heinlein).


-- chuck, a Night Driver (, May 06, 1999.


I'm very sorry that I neglected to compliment you on your post. I'm going line by line to try to highlight what I recognize but I know I wont get anywhere near 75%.

Mr. Poole,

I appreciate your response. However, I guess I didn't make my point clear so perhaps you might indulge me further.

The two "normal" problems in those refineries caused a ripple effect throughout the local economies of not only our state but the West Coast.

These problems happened at a time of relative calm. They were not compounded by problems in other areas such as the drilling for or the shipping of or the delivery of oil and certainly there were no problems in the consumer's ability to purchase gasoline at the pump. Regardless, those two "normal" failures had an impact.

So, what would the ripple effect to economies be like when there are "normal" failures occurring at the same time there are failures due to Y2k glitches?

Perhaps these glitches are very simple and easy to fix but they are happening at the same time as those "normal" failures.

Perhaps these glitches are not occurring in the refinement of oil but in just shipping or at the pump.

Heck, maybe there is a problem with the billing systems or the credit card systems and the oil company suffers a disruption in their normal cash flow. How would that ripple through the economy?

I don't have any answers just a whole lot of questions. Yet, when I listen to answers I understand that no one can say with absolute certainty that there will be no problems in any of the individual areas within this system due to y2k. I also understand that no one can say with absolute certainty that there will not be problems due to y2k glitches in more one area.

My personal belief is that when someone addresses an issue like y2k at only a technical level then they aren't considering the systemic nature or the interdependent nature of or the interconnected nature of this problem.

Don't get me wrong, Mr. Poole, I appreciate your expertise and the work you do. I just think we differ in how we view what constitutes a y2k problem.

Mike ==========================================

-- Michael Taylor (, May 06, 1999.

Yeah, yeah, spun@lright, but can you play pinochle?

-- Tom Carey (, May 06, 1999.

I'm from the days of EAM, JCL and Core CoBOL, and PL1, FortranII + IV We learned those # systems from Bi to Hex and back Saving keystrokes on the ol' 026 got to be a handy knack Any loop or logic trick to get right 'down and dirty' Please pass the wine and cheese, don't trust anyone over thirty We all smoked pot and inhaled too, and some of us got fried When they asked us if it's all 'debugged', perhaps sometimes we lied It wasn't on purpose, or our of malice, well maybe a little spite I'll fix that parity, check that syntax, ....anybody got a light? We had our marches, we had our riots, we even had a hero But they shot us up, and shot us down, and replaced him with their Nero Now please be kind, we didn't really mean it, well maybe just a little But now who's that guy, sittin' in the fire, strummin' on his fiddle Now in the time for all ....... to come to the aid of their country

Thanks Chuck--- I sincerely hope I can network with a lot of folks like you and others here.

Who was it, Dunn I think, that wrote " No man is an island " (open to corrective critisism here, just be gentle.)

-- spun@lright (, May 06, 1999.

"I sincerely hope I can network with a lot of folks like you and others here."

Me thinks you'll fit in just fine here. Welcome to the club. <:)=

-- Sysman (, May 06, 1999.

---Tom Carey---

You bet Double deck ..penny a point...double for a slam

Need a partner?

-- spun@lright (, May 06, 1999.

Mr Pole and co.---

Just in case you showup here again, please consider this

Y2K May Stop Oil, Start Terrorism - Senate Hearing


snip- According to Committee Ranking Democrat Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., the US depends on much of its oil supply on countries that mostly are far behind on their Year 2000 compliance efforts. The top five oil exporters to the US are Venezuela (16.2 percent), Canada (15.5 percent), Saudi Arabia (14.4 percent), Mexico (12.9 percent) and Nigeria (7.3 percent). Except for Canada, these countries are between six months to 24 months behind on their compliance efforts, Dodd said.

Now , let's see Panama is between North and South America, China is attempting to take control of the canal, China is on the list of the least y2k "ready" (better?) HMMMMM!!!! This may take a while... better go have a cup a Jo and a fag.

-- spun@lright (, May 06, 1999.

Hmmm..... It seems that Mr. Poole and Mr. Davis have exited the building with Elvis.

spun@lright, if you walk the walk as well as you talk the talk, you certainly have my admiration. Very eloquent. You have silenced the roaring and closed the mouths of the beasts, so to speak. De has also made an excellent suggestion. I would also like to hear the opinion of Mr. Decker (the EEconomist) on the impact to our economy of different levels of oil supply disruptions. Although he has an opinion on everything and everyone, he seems somewhat reluctant so speak to his area of expertise.

You have, however, given the pollys a huge opportunity to defend their position. I wonder if they even have a clue....

I've suspected for a long time that craig was a petty jerk-weed, and his "thoughtful" comments on this thread confirm it.

Mr. Elbow Grease

-- Elbow Grease (, May 06, 1999.

Hey, Tom and Mikey, I CAN play pinochle ....

-- BigDog (, May 06, 1999.

--Big Dog--

I don't much like the sound of cut throat just know, so if we could wait for a 4th it's on buddy!!

-- spun@lright (, May 06, 1999.

An excellent list of basic starter skills for anyone wishing to prosper after a worst-case Y2K event. I might add that in addition to the items you've listed that I have on my resume, the tasks of planting, topping, priming, tying, heisting, sorting, grading and packing tobacco. In addition to your list, these may also come in as profitable endeavors in the near-term future.


-- Wildweasel (, May 06, 1999.

Nice work mikey...I'm not sure what I liked better, the sounding off to CET or the eloquent closing verse.

-- a (a@a.a), May 06, 1999.

Double deck (no nines), Jarhead style (or Navy style). Penny a point, quarter a set, dollar a game. Unsheathed bayonets on the table. Double for a "Slam"? We called taking every trick "A Boston", is that what you mean by a slam? And, yeah, cutthroat is a pain. . .

-- Hardliner (, May 06, 1999.


NO, I was was referring to trump tight double run no brainer two bucks please next game... hand, But I sure like gettin' em in a cross fire, widowed ace, table slappin Boston even better. Let's cut for partners. OK? Only one thing tougher than a jarhead, a locked down polly, playin for dessert.

-- spun@lright (, May 06, 1999.


"a locked down polly"? (A restricted-to-his-cell, inmate who thinks Y2k will be a BITR?) and "playing for dessert"? (Hope that doesn't mean what it sounds like!)

I always thought that the only two tougher things were cheap toilet paper and hobo turds. . .

-- Hardliner (, May 06, 1999.

In case there are some sheltered folk who have never read the Heinlein quote referenced above, click here: The Meaning of Life

You'll probably have to scroll down a bit to the entry from Time Enough for Love. No doubt certain other Forum participants will appreciate the other numerous quotes from Edward Abbey. 8-}]

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), May 06, 1999.


No disrespect intended, I was just imagining you play as I read your post and expected a warrior attitude that would be great to sit in on, on either side. The only thing I could imagine at the the time, that might be tougher read, would be a totally unprepared and desperate polly, sittin in an internment camp, trying to win at something.

-- spun@lright (, May 06, 1999.


I didn't take it as disrespect--it only confused me. Respect's sorta overrated anyway--if you've got it, you don't really need it.

Yeah, some of the games got rather "warrior-like", especially aboard ship in the tropics after weeks without sight of land. . .

-- Hardliner (, May 06, 1999.

Oh come on now Elbow Grease, some of us have to work for a living. As for oil prices, I have heard many many economists estimate the price of oil from 5 to 20 years ahead in my life. Every one of them was wrong, on the high side to boot. Check out the Time archive if you don't believe me - look for stories about oil in the late 70's and early 80's. Many stories predicting gas prices of $5.00/gal by the ninties. Don't miss the bit where Kennedy cried on the Capitol steps because he could not stop the deregulation of natural gas.

-- Paul Davis (, May 06, 1999.

Ah. Mr. Davis returns. Empty-handed. That would be *Mister* Elbow Grease, Mr. Davis. Yes, I know about work. My moniker has nothing to do with petroleum products and everything to do with work. [ I *would* like to know what "screeded a slab" means.... the steel industry?]

My interest is not with oil prices per se. I would like to see an analysis of how increasing disruptions to oil supplies might, stratum by stratum, affect our overall economy. So much is dependent on oil. How does a dollar a barrel increase translate into price inflation? What other factors are involved? Is there a smooth curve, or are there discontinuities, i.e. spikes in the function? How do disruptions in refining capacity, or pipeline delivery, or tanker delivery, differ from lower supplies of imported crude oil? IOW, How much of an impact, in how short a time, can our system absorb without subsequent major economic disruptions?

Now, Mr. Davis, I've dangled a clue before your eyes. The truth is, I'm tired of the polarization that has developed on the forum. Are you willing to admit that a polly guess is no better than a doomer guess? It's still just a guess. Spun@lright has handed you a compelling argument. Have you "got it" yet?

Mr. Elbow Grease

-- Elbow Grease (, May 06, 1999.

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