[snip]

Subj: Panic and other myths
Date: Wednesday, April 28, 1999 5:33:59 PM
From: (Kali Grosberg)

Hello -

You may be interested in information I received at a Red Cross Disaster Mental Health training workshop since it refutes the reason most often given by corporate and government officials for holding back information about Y2k -- they don't want people to panic.

This is from their training manual for Disaster Action Team (DAT)members.

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(from DISASTER MYTHS by Stan Bush)

"One of the most surprising discoveries made in studying citizen responses is that people do not panic. Other myths are mentioned below, but this is paramount. Many officials presume they will, but study of over 300 cases just does not bear this out. There is panic under certain conditions: 1) when individuals are under immediate and severe danger; 2) when there are limited or closed escape routes; 3)when there is a lack of communication about what is happening. But all three conditions must be present. More typically people seek to take actions to protect themselves, friends and relatives based on the information and experience they have.

"What at times looks like panic to use (sic) is actually these protective actions which are a very small percentage of the thousands of cases studied so apparently our conception of how people will respond is incorrect. Rather, the opposite tends to happen if there is an extended time of warning...

"Remember, there are always individual exceptions. What is being presented here deals with the behavior of the majority of citizens--but it appears to be the vast majority."

a couple of other myths...

"CRIME. Crime falls drastically during and immediately after a disaster. It dropped 26.6 percent in New Orleans immediately following Hurricane Betsy.

"LOOTING. This is one of the most interesting myths identified. Records show it to be very low. In one disaster, only three percent of the citizens reported cases of possible looting. It is widespread in civil disorders, but there is just no evidence to show that it is a major problem in a disaster. The major problem appears to be the FEAR (their caps) of looting by officials and citizens. However, police must secure the area to safeguard against the possibility and to reassure the citizens."

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Note: Given the above, we might consider the possibility that if safety officials realize that fear of looting, rather than actual looting, is the biggest problem, they might be able to reduce violent confrontations by integrating this information into their disaster training.

Another interesting myth that was relayed to us verbally but was not in the handout is the myth about the primacy of strong leadership. The reality seems to be that coordination and cooperation is more important. Sounds like research proves respecting and trusting others' abilities wins out over top-down command. Again, I assume the study refers to disaster situations.

[/snip]

~C~

-- Critt Jarvis (middleground@critt.com), May 05, 1999

Answers

Excellent. The real reason our government (heck, it applies to companies, families and any entity) use the panic excuse is control. Open communication risks the loss of control over those you communicate with. An alternative or complementary explanation is that the panic takes place at the top, ironically, and they project their own fear onto the citizenry. Generally, citizens are more mature and less narcissistic or neurotic than their leaders.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 05, 1999.

Great point Big Dog. I think the government is more likely to go into a panic mode than the people are.

I think we would see more of a frenzy than panic with the masses. Have you seen the feeding frenzy over the new Star Wars stuff? Can you imagine what it would be like if that was food or vital goods? Can you imagine the frenzy at the banks if some event or rumor struck fear or shot down confidence in the average account holder? What about the sell off frenzy on Wall Street?

Wow, now that I think of it, maybe people will panic. What about all the people that can't take part in the original frenzy? What if they can't make it to the supermarket in time? What if they can't make it to the back in time to get some cash before it goes on holiday? What about those investors that can't make the deal that saves their investment? I really think they might panic.

Critt, this seems like absolute spin to me. Kind of like taking the word panic and making it politically correct. Read these next three points and then apply them to the situations above.

" There is panic under certain conditions:

1) when individuals are under immediate and severe danger;

2) when there are limited or closed escape routes;

3) when there is a lack of communication about what is happening"

Wow, those struck me as hitting right at the heart of what might cause panic as a result of disruptions or even the rumor or perception of disruptions due to Y2k. Project yourself into that feeling of fear, confusion, isolation, with limited options (if any) and you might feel a little panic take over.

I think the panic about panic in the government engine is building and spin control and the disinformation...er...uh...informing of the public is on full throttle.

Mike ================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), May 05, 1999.

In regards to looting and the ability of police to control, I would like to add a personal experience which may shed some light on this.

Two years ago, my in-laws neighborhood was hit by three tornadoes severely damaging 70+ homes. At first, the police were instrumental in controlling access to the roads and homes in a way similar to martial law. Within just 2 days, the police presence quickly dissipated due to pressing priorities leaving the citizens to fend for themselves as strangers from all around wandered through the neighborhood. At night, groups of non-resident teenagers walked the streets and some of the residents sat on their front porches with shotguns occasionally calling out a warning that they were armed. Looting did indeed occur, but was curtailed mostly by the residents. Police were repeatedly notified, but did not have the manpower to help beyond stepping up patrols a few times every hour.

I guess my point is that the ability of police to effectively deter looting for any extended period of time may be very limited even on a small scale and that at least in this experience, the citizens were legitmately afraid, but the government officials were either unwilling or unable to help.

-- David (David@BankPacman.com), May 05, 1999.

Do NOT panic. There will be NO panic. Y2K is NOT a panic event. We see NO panic buying or stockpiling as a result of Y2K awareness.

FEAR of a panic will cause one. So think happy thoughts. Be at peace. Trust us when we tell you that people only panic on sinking ships or theatres afire.

Pay no attention to doomers inciting panic for profit or cult status!!

There will be plenty of plenty forever, so relax!

This is so irresponsible it makes me sick. The Socialists, Pollyanna's and Powers-that-be that propagate this kind of crap are leading people to their graves.

They're comparing a localized disaster and reactions folks have in this country towards recovery and rebuilding. Disaster victims have hope of help amongst each other for the short term, then a need for help from the outside to rebuild.

No panic buying, yeah right. I've experienced panic buying myself two nights ago at a Toys R Us waiting for the doors to open at midnight. 150 people rushed and stormed the aisles, shoving and pushing abounded at frenzied nuts trying to get the "rare" figurines and dolls. 4 were arrested for fighting. The horde ignored screams from store employees of "There's plenty for everyone" and signs posting limits were ignored. I watched the crazed throng shove a dad and seven year-old boy back and stack series of figures and dolls into their arms - some of them second-market dealers who will sell their caches at toy shows for ridiculously inflated prices.

Mind you I have no objection to the Free Market, but not at the expense of a boy or others who simply wanted one to open and play with.

You see, this panic was over the PERCEPTION that there was a limited quantity of some items.

Some abandoned all decency and standards to obtain their prize for profit. Money is a huge motivator.

Then again, so is hunger and thirst.

Especially in a nation that has no memory of true hunger and thirst en-masse.

The intensity I experienced on Sunday night was OVER TOYS (I hear Beanie Babies are the same way)....I can only imagine what things will be like when folks are hungry and cold.

Either by perception or by shortage, panic of the worst kind sets in when it's too late. Prudent measures taken in advance will keep you out of rioting mobs and lines at food trucks and shelters for whatever arises

The prudent man sees danger afar off and makes ready, while the fool rushes headlong into disaster and is destroyed.

We're kind of living in the zeitgeist of the days of Noah before the flood.

Wait until the rain starts.

Then you'll really see panic.

"Do not weep for me, but for yourselves and children. For if they do this to me when the tree is green, what will they do TO YOU when the tree is dry?" - Jesus ...The Christ

Wisdom there whatever beliefs you hold.

-- INVAR (gundark@sw.net), May 05, 1999.

"You see, this panic was over the PERCEPTION that there was a limited quantity of some items."

What a gem Ivar.

I took my 3 year old son to my local Target store yesterday...Mother's Day is coming up : )

We walk in and right in front of us is a huge display of new, "limited edition" stuff. Amazing what location, day, time of day and perception can do!!! I bet a few days before it was not unlike what you discribed.

Oh, and my son got his mom a great set of 5 Matchbox Construction Trucks for $4.95. Seems he didn't think that $25.00 Imperial something or other would have the same appeal to his mom. I agreed, quickly!

My work is designed to manipulate the perception of the individual in a certain direction or toward a particular purchase. Design it, package it, market it! Create the illusion of it being in short supply and you'll do even better!!!

It doesn't matter if the shortages are real or rumor, really.

Mike =========================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), May 05, 1999.

While I believe very strongly that the government should be more honest and forthright with us about Y2K and I agree that the panic factor is overrated, I have some very serious reservations about the validity of the Red Cross report concerning disaster myths.

For instance, the report says: "CRIME. Crime falls drastically during and immediately after a disaster. It dropped 26.6 percent in New Orleans immediately following Hurricane Betsy." Well, yes, it very likely did because New Orleans was flooded to a depth of from 3-6' in the University/Uptown area, to 6-8' downtown, and 12-15' at the lakefront, making it very difficult to get around and commit crimes. Shopping went down too. . .

The report also dismisses as a myth the phenomenon of looting after a disaster: "LOOTING. This is one of the most interesting myths identified. Records show it to be very low. In one disaster, only three percent of the citizens reported cases of possible looting. It is widespread in civil disorders, but there is just no evidence to show that it is a major problem in a disaster. The major problem appears to be the FEAR (their caps) of looting by officials and citizens. However, police must secure the area to safeguard against the possibility and to reassure the citizens." This conclusion is not borne out by either my recollections of living in hurricane country for a total of 19 years, nor by the bit of research I just did:

http://hamptonroads.digitalcity.com/hurricane/hfrederic.htm--"In Mobile, where authorities imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew against Frederic's wrath, at least 64 people were arrested for looting overnight as National Guardsmen reinforced local police."

http://imagessence.com/St-Charles/messages/40.shtml--"During Hurricane Georges we had to evacuate the parish and when we returned our home was almost broken into. Three houses on our street were vandalized and robbed. From my understanding, 30 deputies were sitting at Harry Hurst doing NOTHING. Shouldn't they have been patrolling my subdivision. Maybe if they were, people wouldn't have lost their belongings, not to mention their trust in the St. Charles Parish [Louisiana] Sheriff's Department..."

http://vh1459.infi.net/news/docs/tough093098.htm--"A combination of Hurricane Georges' strong winds and a dusk-to-dawn curfew averted any widespread looting, though isolated cases were reported, Coast police say.

'Since the hurricane, crime has not been a problem,' Biloxi Police Chief Tommy Moffett said. 'The curfew has been a real help and, of course, the cooperation of our citizens.'

. . ."Moffett said three adults were arrested on Monday for allegedly trying to loot a business in the 200 block of Reynoir Street.

In Gulfport, Chief George Payne Jr. said 11 adults were arrested on Monday on various looting charges. Bay St. Louis police Chief Frank McNeil said people have generally obeyed the curfew.

. . . In the 48 hours since Hurricane Georges made landfall Sunday night, the Biloxi Police Department reported two arrests - only one involving looters."

These are not isolated incident; there were lots more sites. I do feel that if authorities weren't so quick to put National Guard troops in place, looting would be even more of a problem after a natural disaster. (And see personal protection from looters, above.)

I too disagree generally with the notion that if told the truth about Y2K people will panic, but I think the Red Cross needs to approach the problem from a more accurate perspective.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), May 05, 1999.

I'm not sure I'm in tune here but let's see. The fact that the government paternalistically wants to "control" the citizenry (which, again, I believe, is mainly misdirected) sure doesn't mean that the citizenry can't or won't go berserk in certain situations. My point (I think most of us agree) is we're increasing the odds of berzerk behavior through premature efforts to control so-called panic.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 05, 1999.

BigDog, no flats in that!

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), May 05, 1999.