Article appearing in the Kansas City Star newspaper...

http://www.kcstar.com:80/item/pages/business.pat,business/30daf2cd.430,.html

-- pdirac (pdirac@hotmail.com), May 03, 1999

Answers

While it will be a bummer watching, at best, 3rd-world countries implode from Y2K, compared with bombing the former USSR, it is difficult to get too excited about Y2K right now. However, if the international "house of cards" collapses due to Y2K problems, a lot of people are going to be spending a lot less time drinking beer, watching MTV and going to ball-games.

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), May 03, 1999.

And water boils at 20 deg. C. Our taxes at work. Looks like shepple controll at its best.

-- Rickjohn (rickjohn1@yahoo.com), May 03, 1999.

pdirac,

Whenever I see articles like this one, I have to remind myself of a few things. I have two articles that I keep by my computer all the time to help keep things in perspective.

One an article published 1/26/99 from "Wired News" titled "FEDS PLAN Y2K SPIN CONTROL". The other is from Knight Ridder Newspapers titled: "FDIC PLANS CAMPAIGN TO CALM Y2K FEARS".

One statement from the first article: "John Koskinene, assistatnt to Pres. Clinton and chariman of etc etc..has entered into discussions with a P/r firm..... The firm has recommended conducting awareness surveys and honing a "stay-calm" message based on the results."

Another statement: "The campaign is designed to thward widesprerad hoarding and extreme reactions to Y2K, including the possibility of bank runs and stockpiling-sparked shortages."

Another statement: "Officials have suggested other strategies, such as asking broadcasters to donate FREE air time and creating a media-advisory group that would work hand in hand with the federal Y2K council to soothe anxious Americans."

The campaign has worked very well.

I'm mostly a lurker here because I'm here mainly to learn from those more knowledgeable about the problem. However I do know a little about advertising campaigns and the power they have to subtly change minds and twists facts.

Another thing I remind myself is that this President has an amazing ability to run rough shod over all emergencies and problems and come out okay on the other side simply because he refuses to back down his position whether right or wrong.

He smoked, but didn't inhale, He had an orgasm (I just betcha!), but didn't have sex. He doesn't have a definite definition on most words, they mean whatever is convenient for him at them time.

He's made it through PaulaGate, MonicaGate, ChinaGate, WhitewaterGate, and now KosovoGate, without hardly batting an eyelash.

So someone tell me why I should trust anything coming out in "official" reports, other than what he wants me to hear.

I believe we are in serious trouble here, whether y2k is bad or not, I don't trust or believe these people. I think they are capable of screwing the facts to suit the agenda of a President with no morals, conscious, or integrity. And (most alarming) more ambition than any one to come down the pike in many, many years.

So, I prefer to err on the side of caution. I'm preparing for problems because there is obvious, OBVIOUS, disagreements among the only experts I read. I'm not willing to take a chance with a government that cares more about "keeping me calm" than feeding me facts. This government has proven that "facts" are things to mold and create to suit their agenda.

By the way, I'm not a right-winged, fundamentalist, Republican. Just a citizen who reads the news.

-- LindaO (noone@knows.com), May 03, 1999.

Sorry about all those typos in the quotes. I don't have my contacts in......

-- LindaO (somebody@knows.com), May 03, 1999.

The gist of this article is that most of the Y2K stuff is hype. I myself don't have any idea what's true as far as the actual state of computer source code and embedded chips.

But I did work in computer programming back in the 70's & early 80's. and I know for a fact that some of the programs I worked on would screw up in early 2000; some of them were written in BASIC and not well documented--almost impossible to go back and fix. I have reason to believe that some of this software is still being used.

I'm hearing reports that many companies have assigned in-house people without adequate skills to try to test and fix their software. These ring true. Also the reports that the employees so assigned don't want to confess to their bosses that they're in over their heads.

Based on news stories I've read about events I personally observed, I have no trouble believing that you can't always believe what you read in the papaers (also, based on the fact that you can sometimes find conflicting stories about the same event in the same newspaper, even on the same day).

Storing up some food and supplies seems to be a very low risk, low cost form of insurance--a lot cheaper than, for example, medical insurance. If there turn out to be no Y2K related shortages, you eat the stored food and use next year's grocery money for something else. So what if certain vendors are making some money off the situation? Doesn't that happen all the time anyway? Look at all the money that's made in connection with sporting events.

So why do the people who believe that Y2K is all hype get so upset at the people who want to make some preparations for it? The only reason I can think of is that they feel that the doomers are going to bring about doom by getting people scared, causing bank runs, food shortages and so forth.

But it seems as though the real problem is not the doomers but rather the wildly conflicting views expressed in the various media. If the doomers' had been the only voices heard, and if people had taken them seriously from the beginning, there would have been plenty of time for people to stock up on supplies and cash gradually; people in suburban and rural areas would have had several years to learn how to grow food and get gardens established. There would have been no perceived need for last-minute panic-induced preparations.

What if most of the Y2K doom-scenarios are false? I look at it this way: if I'm in a crowded room with only one door and the guy standing next to me says, "Hey, you know what? In 5 minutes I'm going to yell 'Fire! Fire!' just to see what happens," I'm heading for the door at that moment, even though I know there won't really be a fire. It seems clear by this time that the number of people taking the Y2K threat seriously enough to prepare for it is great enough to cause bank runs and food shortages. You aren't gonna change this by getting mad and cussing the doom-sayers.

Bottom line as I see it is this: No one knows what the overall picture is for sure. Common sense says that there is some possibility greater than 0 that there will be bank runs, food shortages, power outages, oil and gasoline shortages, etc. So stock up already. The sooner you do it, the less you'll be contributing to panic-buying in the latter part of '99.

--GG

-- Gal Gardner (altamira@ecpi.com), May 03, 1999.

Heres a snip:

The people who run Comdex, the nation's top technology trade show, must be wondering just what to think about this whole Y2K thing.

They flew in an expert from California to talk about Y2K contingency planning. Fewer than 20 people showed up -- that's 20 of the more than 80,000 people who attended the trade show in Chicago last week.

The story was much the same on the second day of the show. Lawyers were flown in from both coasts to talk about Y2K legal issues. Those who showed up for the panel discussion wouldn't have filled one row in a room that could hold 200.

********* End of Snip ****

Yes, Y2K IS over------- until 1/1/2000 or perhaps 9/9/99. Then the chances for a LOT of "fun" are very good.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), May 03, 1999.

And here is Michael Hyatts advice (michaelhyatt.com):

Y2K PREPTIP #24

Take advantage of the lull before the storm

by Michael S. Hyatt

For several weeks now Y2K vendors have been reporting that sales have slowed. People seem to be less interested in preparing for Y2K than at any other time in the last twelve months. I think this is due in large part to the "spin" and disinformation being promulgated by the Clinton Administration and various industry spokespeople.

And it seems to be working. Just when we began getting some momentum, the public has stuck its collective head in the sand and gone back to sleep. Or perhaps they've just "flipped the channel" to focus one of the many other diversions that are more immediate, threatening, or entertaining.

Regardless, I believe this presents a unique opportunity to those who are not asleep at the wheel. The media are currently preoccupied with the war in Kosovo and the massacre in Littleton. However, sooner or later the facts are going to come out. (In fact they are readily available now to anyone who cares to read them.) And when they do, John Q. Public is going to wake up, smell the coffee, and realize that he hasn't been the told the whole story. At that moment, I believe we will see millions of Americans scramble to make preparations "just in case." And at that moment the door of opportunity slam shut and people will regret that they were so naive as to believe everything they were told.

My PrepTip for this week is to take advantage of the lull before the storm. Make the preparations you know you need to make and do it now. You may not get this opportunity again. Don't squander it.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), May 03, 1999.

and when the cash is gone,it's gone

-- zoobie (zoobie@zoob.zab), May 03, 1999.

Over the past few months I have read about GIs saying that if Y2K is just a "bump in the road" they will eat their mistake and make big donations to the local food shelf. The question I ask is "WHY"????? Are you so sure that there won't be other problems on the horizen? We are in the midst of an extremely threatening era: Clinton, war, Klinton, Y2K, Slick, Russia/China, and did I mention the old sleeze who calls himself the president? I firmly believe we will end up with war in our own land with nuclear bombs dropped, water poisoned, disease rampant, etc. I don't want to have to worry about food, too. What I have stored will stay in my basement getting rotated to preserve quality! I don't want to look back and know that I had it all and just gave it away because Y2K was a "bump in the road."

-- winna (??@??.com), May 03, 1999.

Winna:

I think you'll find many here agree --- I intend this change in my lifestyle (not being totally reliant on "the system") to be permanent. All those questions by the DGIs about "What are you going to do if...." are irrelevant for me. The answer is "Nothing different" (prepare, rotate, keep on quest to become/remain as independent as possible).

If there are Y2K garage sales next spring, maybe you and I can get some deals!

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), May 03, 1999.

Though I truly hope for the fall of the bureaucracy, I hope we get to go to those garage sales!

-- winna (??@??.com), May 03, 1999.

Anyone that needs reassurance about the "hype theory" needs to read a real life, big business experience with Y2K remediation:

"there were just thousands and thousands of bugs that had to be weeded out," ....."There is no question that every major application we have would have failed. Absolutely no question about it."

as proof positive that not only is the threat real, but our planet is going to go through some serious disruptions in the near future.

-- spun@lright (mikeymac@uswest.net), May 03, 1999.

Damnit>>>

http://www.freep.com/news/airtravel/qnwa27.htm

-- spun@lright (mikeymac@uswest.net), May 03, 1999.

Thanks spunalright

The Northwest article is illuminating on many counts, mostly about when they started and how high they have revised their costs. But even they admit that they're not ready yet.

-- gec (childsge@msx.upmc.edu), May 03, 1999.

Everyone is talking sense on this thread!!! Am I at the correct url ?

-- humptydumpty (no.6@thevillage.com), May 03, 1999.

Humpty,

Shhh...you were knocked out and put in a holodeck. :-)

What I make of that article is that some no longer believe that the power grid is going down and staying down. That's a clear concept that was motivating some people to prepare last summer and fall.

With the risk of a grid-induced TEOTWAWKI apparently smaller now, Y2K planning and preparation is getting less clear-cut and takes more analysis. Increasingly, Y2K prep also deals with questions such as will food, gasoline and jobs still be plentiful next year.

The availability of food, gasoline, clothing and jobs next year is not a trivial issue. In my humble opinion, careful personal contingency planning is still the prudent thing to do.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), May 03, 1999.