I have an aquaintance who attended our first y2k meeting and started to make preps. Now she hears that the testing on Wall Street when just fine and believes that y2k isn't a problem after all. Anyone have any interpretation of the Wall Street testing and how I can respond to her?

-- Libby Alexander (libbyalex@aol.com), May 03, 1999

Answers

Its called SUPPLY LINES. It doesn't matter if Wall St is all compliant if the corporations begin falling like bowling pins due to lack of supplies. We import 80% of what we eat and use in this country. I don't care if every company in the US, big, little or a one man operation, has compliant computers. If they can't buy the component parts, Widget Inc. is going down the tubes.

Got lots of Widgets stored??

Taz

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), May 03, 1999.

I too think Wall Street is fine, re: Y2K.

However, I think if other countries "go south", that will drag down our good friends, "the multi-national corporations" and the banks. I don't think there are enough USA-centric companies on the stock- exchange to prop-up the Dow.

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), May 03, 1999.

Theres just no way to know if wall street is "fine" or not --- look back on previous threads for background (this forum has a whole section on the stock market). Most people will believe what they WANT to. Virtually all industries are saying they are "fine" -- if you believe all that there is no need to prepare. Or you and your friend could look deeper -- without going paranoid -- but few people will. Its easier to believe wall street is fine. It was fine in 1929 until ..............

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), May 03, 1999.

TAZ: stop with the bad misinfo! "We import 80% of what we eat" what kind of nonsense is that?!? it is proven that America could produce enough food for the entire population of the world to eat.

-- (.`.`@.`.`), May 03, 1999.

As a certified Gloom&Doomer, I've been so pre-occupied with Y2K for the last 2 1/2 years that I forgot an old favorite of us chronic pessimists: the stock market.

In that spirit let me relay yesterday's email from a friend:

From: "Joe W. Stout" Subject: Notice the date

***********************************

Stock Market Invinicible

Buy! Buy! Buy! Experts Advise

The Onion Tuesday October 22 1929

Leading economic indicators of the day, such as numbers of racoon-skin coats in the process of being paid off on "easy credit" and the highly inflated value of major common stocks being over-sold on margin point to only one thing say experts: prosperity for the USA.

Average Americans are getting rich by buying stocks with money they don't even have. "I bought several shares of Westinghouse stocks on margin and have a net worth of over $30, 000," said New York City teacher Sid Grossman. " I'm going to retire on that money."

And stockbrokers are advising everyone to buy in big while the going is good.

"Everyone can partake of the soaring wealth, " said Wall Street broker Robert Specht. "I would recommend that anyone put everything they have into the stock market. Borrow if you have to."

***********************

As a postscript my grandfather lost his fortune (made in a pushcart business on the Lower East Side of Manhattan) when they 'called his margin' in '29. My mother went from the largest individual IBM stockholder in '73 ($27 MILLION) to a mere $3M bec of the crash of '74. What--me Worry?

Alfred E. Neuman

-- William J. Schenker, MD (wjs@linkfast.net), May 03, 1999.

wall street won't be doing too well if there are bankruns/collapse.or the phones crash,or power

-- zoobie (zoobie@zoob.zab), May 03, 1999.

However you respond to her, she might not be convinced. Share your concern and the information/reasoning that led you to it. Then if she isn't convinced to share your concern you'll have to decide whether to prepare enough to help her later if necessary. I have a mental list of who is welcome to move in, who would rate a loan, and who'd rate a hand-out. Hopefully none of those lists will ever be needed, but I expect they will. So my preparations need to take them all into account.

-- Steve Hartzler (s.hartzler@usa.net), May 03, 1999.

There's an excellent narrative about speculative fever in general at the following link:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000mbl

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), May 03, 1999.

Libby,

It is my understanding that what was tested on Wall Street was the ability to make a merket and transact business. Some minor problems (un-named problems in the report I read) were discovered and are "being worked on". The SEC has given member firms and traders until Oct 1, 1999 to demonstrate compliance or be bared from trading due to corrupting the data of the Y2K compliant traders.

The tests make no effort to address the fundemental stock price valuations only the ability of member firms to buy and sell. If Y2K hits hard, stock prices may be driven down due to heavy selling pressure. On the other hand, the US market appears as the best "money parking place" on the planet as many foreign investors are moving capital to the US from other less attractive markets like Germany or Japan or others...

Gartner Group just issued a warning about stocks on page 3B of Friday's April 30, 1999 US Today - did you see it?

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), May 03, 1999.

I can't send this directly to "a" because "a" doesn't leave a real address, but want to say that a's concept of USA being able to feed the world is far from fact. Masybe we could if we didn't love to eat meat, but the fact is we import a lot of meat (among other things) because there is no way we can get enough from our own country. In fact, we import a lot from countries who devote to that pupose a lot of land they should be using to feed their own (sometimes starving) people. (If we ate less meat, we'd have more crops for people to eat. We raise 10 lbs. of grain to make a lb. of meat.)

-- Shivani Arjuna (odnsmall@aol.com), May 03, 1999.

Libby, my advice to you would be that although you might want to continue to try you don't have and you shouldn't feel it is your place to persuade your friend. This is their choice, beyond your control. You did what you could.

Shivani, I think you and "@" are both correct regarding the U.S.

It's just that "@" hasn't realized yet that although the U.S. may have the land and the human power to feed the population of the U.S. it doesn't have the infrastructure or the mechanics in place to do so at this time. So, while it is certainly possible it would take quite some time to actually work out and develop the system to do this.

IMHO, in that time perhaps millions of people would have died.

Mike =============================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), May 03, 1999.

Thanks, all, for your responses. Bill, I didn't get a chance to read the USA Today article on Friday, though I caught a glimpse of it in a store, and then got distracted. Is there a link to it?

Will let you know how my conversation goes with my friend!

-- Libby Alexander (libbyalex@aol.com), May 03, 1999.