This is a challenge to Stephen M. Poole, CETgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
This is a challenge to Stephen M. Poole, CET, to publish this piece on his y2k web page.Of course SMPCET, if you disagree with the figures, let's have at it.
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"Let me preface this rather gloomy scenario with a little about my biography. I have over 22 years mainframe IT experience specialising in realtime computer operations, and assembler coverage programming, in both airline, railway and banking TPF/VM/MVS systems. I have worked extensively with mainframe heavy iron in the UK, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia and the USA. Companies include British Airways, SNCF, Amadeus, Saudia, Continental, American Airlines and VISA. I believe my extensive experience, both internationally and domestically, gives me the necessary background to feel comfortable with the accuracy of these figures, very disheartening and alarming that these conclusions admittedly are.
Around The World In 120 Days
As a young boy growing up in England I remember reading and being enthralled by "Around the World In 80 Days", and it certainly acted as one of the catalysts for my love of travel and adventure in later life. I have subsequently managed to see many of those places and cultures that Phileas Fogg and his loyal French valet Passepartout saw, and am thankful for those wonderful experiences.
Unlike our hero Phileas in Jules Verne's classic novel, we have a little more than 80 days to fix all our systems around the world. Unfortunately, unlike Phileas, who wagered twenty thousand pounds that he could circle the globe in 80 days or less, we have left The Reform Club too late to complete our own vital world mission before the clock strikes midnight. You can wager on it.
We have run out of time to fix this mess.
The US will not make it in time. The "rest of the world" has no chance. None whatsoever.
Don't believe me???
By my reckoning, as of the 1st of May 1999, we have approximately 160 working days left to get every single entity on earth up to speed. Let's take the USA, for example, as it historically has the lowest amount of vacation days in the world. (I'm purposely not addressing other countries as they will be substantially worse in many regards than the USA. e.g. Saudi Arabia takes circa 3 months off per year, Ramadan plus regular vacation. France takes the month of August off every year plus 15 public holidays, plus strikes (their national sport...) - you get the picture...)
160 days. Factor in public holidays. 150. Factor in sickness. 140. Factor in vacation time. Two weeks in the late summer and a week or two at Christmas. This at precisely the worst time from a remediation and testing viewpoint. Call it 20 days vacation per year. This leaves us with 120 working days. You could also factor in Monday mornings and Friday afternoons in most shops, and water cooler and fag breaks and long lunches and burn-out and, and, and... the unknown factor if you wish...
So - about <120 days is all we have left to fix everything in the USA. Oh boy.
I thought this was quite bad enough until I received an e-mail from Paul Milne, and I quote:
"You need to add one more thing. Productivity. You are assuming 100%. Think about Monday morning post mortems of football games, meetings, funerals, hand waiving sessions, other ancillary down time. If you factor in an 80% productivity factor then you really only have 96 days left instead of 120."
The remediation has already failed. It is not conjecture or speculation. We are going down and we are going down hard."
Thanks Paul, ever the eternal optimist :(
On the plus side - there may be overtime and death marches for geeks. Contract geeks may not take a vacation. Never underestimate the power of contract rates, overtime rates and a positive work ethic! However, a tired geek is not a good or careful remediator. It will not work. Entities have seriously underestimated the scope of the problem. Testing has all but gone out the window for many of them. Some have yet to start on anything, they have not the Fogg-iest clue (. Sorry, couldn't resist.
We have a finite deadline. As that deadline approaches and it dawns on the grunts in the trenches that they are not going to make it, self-preservation instincts will inevitably kick in. And that all-American work ethic and company loyalty (if it was ever there) will vanish in an instant. There will be geek epiphanies en masse.
So you must also factor in the great geek exodus from the cities (for I am one) late next year. I will NOT be at a mainframe site in a big city at rollover unless there is a helicopter standing by to fly me home and I am paid in advance in American Eagles. Of course here I'm being facetious. What company will provide a Bell JetRanger for a bunch of tired, worried, scruffy geeks? Who would want to be in the air after rollover anyway other than John Travolta? Can you eat gold coins? Would you trust ATC computers? Do JetRangers have embedded chips?
I therefore believe we are in a very realistic band of 110-130 working days left for remediation in the USA. It could be more, just, but realistically you have to look at the lower end of the spectrum. The situation will constantly fluctuate throughout '99, this will further erode the 110-130 working day paradigm I suggested - just wait and see. I have no doubt that this band will be adversely impacted by factors yet to emerge.
Unlike Phileas Fogg, our time, alas, will have expired.
There will be no happy endings at The Reform Club...
We will have failed world-wide to reform those two digits...
Only one byte at THIS apple...
Less than 120 days. Maybe much less. Face it."
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Addendum:-
This was originally published in cory hamasaki's
DC Y2K Weather Report
in February 1999.
I have adjusted the figures - hopefully my mathematics are correct, but I'm sure you will get the gist.
One last thing - I've changed my mind - I WILL be working at a major mainframe site at rollover.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999
Why would he even consider even posting this speculative, aged post? This is no challange, it is judt another effort to get attention on your part.
-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), May 03, 1999.
Yes Cherri you've got it in one.Do you dispute the figures or premise Cherri???
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999.
Congratulations, Andy! Finally mastered reading calendars, eh?The only "premise" I see here involves the great "Geek Exodus". With no backup whatsoever, except for your own personal plans.
Which you have since changed.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-dejanews.com), May 03, 1999.
"So you must also factor in the great geek exodus from the cities (for I am one) late next year."Obviously a post from sometime in 1998. Hardly relevant...
-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), May 03, 1999.
Andy, this post is a good update. Thanks for taking the time to do it.The is another factor. Failures will start to increase in Nov/Dec 99. These breakdowns will take some programmers off of their regular y2k projects. During that time: customer support lines will be jammed, busy experts will not return calls, and many programmers will be idle or in a lower mode of productivity waiting for help.
-- Tomcat (tomcat@cat.com), May 03, 1999.
"Failures will start to increase in Nov/Dec 99"why? got some proof of that statement, or just most spec. on the part of the doomcrowd?
[don't mind Andy...he is waiting for his shipment of retarded flame armor]
-- (.`.`@.`.`), May 03, 1999.
I see not one of my fans above has questioned the veracity of the 120 working day scenario.And you maroons thought there were 8 x 30.
Ya gotta laff!!!
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999.
7 days in a week, but only 5 working days.We're doomed.
Hey, will this get me in a WRP?
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-dejanews.com), May 03, 1999.
Whatever happened to the 16 hour days so many programmers work? I haven't had a real vacation in at least 3 years, and I am just a network geek (for now). And the 120 day business is meaningless - you are, once again, starting from the assumption that nothing meaningful has been done. Unless you can explain how we got through the JoAnn Effect, airline bookings, insurance policy dates, bank interest charge look-aheads, April 1st and all the rest of the gloom dates so far, you have to assume an awful lot of meaningful work HAS been done.
-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), May 03, 1999.
"7 days in a week, but only 5 working days."If this is the case Hoff, and we have 8 months to go, please explain to me how I arrived at 120 working days.
One of us is being disingenuous - and all forum readers can see who that is.
Over to you.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999.
Ya gotta laff!!!Yep, I am laughing my ass off at a dolt who is proud of the fact that he can count business days instead of calendar days. What a freaking genius! Your mother must be so proud that 8th grade finally is paying off (after the third time!). Soon, you won't even have to respond to your own posts to keep them alive (ref: "Confident of the banking system" thread).
-- Do You See (howstupid@you.look), May 03, 1999.
And Paul, I'm surprised at you - being so logical that you are - perhaps they're working 120 16 hour days!!! That spells burn-out to me. Lots of programming mistakes bro.Ever worked for Uncle Sam? Overtime is hard to come by. That's why they've lost the best to the private sector.
Ever worked in Russia - PLENTY of o/t, no problemski.
And the middle east? Insh Allah!!!
The point is, time has run out.
If you too half wits can't see the logic, and you are both programmers (or claim to be), we are, indeed, doomed :)
Can't have it both ways boys.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999.
Do you see.Same question for you - don't dodge it, as you will look more stupid than you've shown yourself to be.
If we have 8 months to go, please explain to me how I arrived at 120 working days.
I don't expect an answer from you, maroon, as you know I'm right.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999.
C'mon, Andy. You look at a calendar, remove holidays and vacations, and present it as some form of revelation? And expect to be taken seriously?Yes, I can see thousands of Project Managers worldwide slapping their heads saying "Doh! No why didn't I think of that!".
Look, the work gets done when it needs to be done. Two of the last three years I've worked through the Fourth of July, due to Financial Systems implementations. The year before last, worked over New Years for a Procurement System implementation.
You also fail to factor in that most of the heavy lifting of system conversions and stress testing happens after-hours and on weekends. If I remember some of your background, I think you claimed to be mostly in systems operations (sorry if that's wrong). As such, I'm really surprised that you somehow overlooked this fact.
You work the hours needed to get the job done. Fact of life in IT. You don't get into it if you expect a 9-5 routine.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-dejanews.com), May 03, 1999.
Ok, Butt-munch!Are you really as stupid as it appears? Why do I need to explain your logic to you? How you came up with 120 days is pretty clear from reading the post. How accurate your 120 days is your conclusion? That is another question altogether.
First, name the 10 public holidays between May 1 and Dec. 31. Second, how many people do you know that take 2 weeks off a year in sick leave? How many of those people have 4 weeks vacation? How many of those have not used any sick time or vacation so far in 1999?
As far as I can tell, your 'argument' is that (1) Given there are 160 working days remaining and (2) assuming that all workers will take 10 sick days plus 10 holidays plus 20 vacation days = 40 days off the rest of the year, then (3) there are 160-40=120 working days left. Congratulations -- you can subtract. Like I said, looks like that 3rd time around, your 8th grade education finally took hold.
Double Dolt!!
-- Do You See (howstupid@you.look), May 03, 1999.
Hoff,You still don't get it do you? Never mind, 99% of others reading the post will.
Your statement above I find astounding.
This is what you said:-
"You work the hours needed to get the job done. Fact of life in IT."
There is an immoveable deadline, not enough programmers of the right calibre, too many lines of code, not enough time for essential testing, and a government.org spinning like a catherine wheel.
I rest my case.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999.
Look, Andy, you asked for a somewhat serious rebuttal, and I gave one (mostly). My points addressed your assumptions, and you didn't answer one of them.As for your statement:
There is an immoveable deadline, not enough programmers of the right calibre, too many lines of code, not enough time for essential testing, and a government.org spinning like a catherine wheel.
You really need to read less Cory H. I could just as easily state:
There is an immoveable deadline, plenty of programmers of the right calibre, all of the lines of code addressed, plenty of time to complete the remaining essential testing, and a government.org making sure it all gets done.
Ah, but then you'd want some facts. The lack of which is pretty apparent in your posts.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-dejanews.com), May 03, 1999.
I have a y2k screen saver that I got off the Prudential Insurance web-site. It says we have 173 working days as of today, May 3. Andy is an idiot.
-- Big Pru (173days.left@this.forum), May 03, 1999.
Do you see,I took GREAT PAINS to explain that the y2k problem is a WORLDWIDE problem.
The original piece was called "Around The WORLD in 180 Days".
It is SUPREMELY EVIDENT that you just skimmed over the essay, and you call me a dolt :)
Do You Get It, maroon, WORLD!
I gave France and Saudi Arabia as examples. My figures hold pal.
Take England if you wish.
The average worker gets two weeks off at Christmas, a plethora of "Bank Holidays" and religious holidays (more than 10), on average about 30 days leave a year, which I can assure you they all take, sickness and absenteeism is a national sport, I could go on.
The situation in Sweden is that they have more public holidays and flexitime and child care time and sabbaticals than England!
Germany, another Catholic country has umpteen religious and public holidays.
Russia is in such bad shape that they have given up on fixing anything, they have lost all heart.
I'm guessing you are an American - that might explain your myopia - gotta be PC here, but you guys are not renowned for taking a world view and it shows in your post.
The USA does not exist in a vacuum - you will find out in 120 working days!!!
And finally, numb-nuts, read the article again. The other factors that are yet to emerge. The "Christ this is boring" factor of wading through reams and reams of code. Hardly glamorous work my short- sighted friend. Read it again as you didn't read it the first or second times.
Treble dolt to you, Einstein!!!
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999.
Aha! Busted!You're downsizing our productivity! Surf on your lunch hour, or do it off company hours. Get back to work! Time's a wastin'!
- Y2k Project Manager
-- Y2k Project Manager (slavedriver@y2kmess.com), May 03, 1999.
"I have a y2k screen saver that I got off the Prudential Insurance web-site. It says we have 173 working days as of today, May 3. Andy is an idiot."Hey, are you a fucking Cobol Programmer by any chance? It's dimwits like you that got us into this mess :)
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999.
Nice try y2k project mgr.,So, by default, are you! Get the fuck back to remediating code, this is my day off!!!
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999.
Hoff and others -- so far as I know, NO ONE says we will be complete with Y2K remediation worldwide. The highest worldwide estimates I have ever seen were 80% for large enterprises and 50% for SMEs. The HIGHEST. If you've seen higher, cool, let me know.Consequently, of course there isn't enough time to finish. This is a no-brainer. Obviously, what we are really killing each other over is the meaning of this fact.
Apart from despising Andy, what's the point of this?
-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 03, 1999.
You lot can bugger off, I'm off to bed!
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999.
Andy, you're not far off. This link says we have 143 "Federal Days" left this year... <:)=http://www.tasc.dot.gov/Y2K/
-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), May 03, 1999.
Andy - Did not intend to offend or knock your post. I intended this to be tongue in cheek to indicate that time is of the essence, but it backfired. My apologies.
-- Y2k Project Manager (slavedriver@y2kmess.com), May 03, 1999.
You believe there isn't enough time to remediate; I say for some systems, there's plenty of time to fix it. Some systems may just need patches from the COTS vendors. With a simple installation and check out, they are done. I also say that some may not be done now, but they started a while back and plan to be done soon. If you read the SEC files, you'll see most did say June 30 as completing. Well, we just started May, so there's time left till the end of June."The average worker gets two weeks off at Christmas, a plethora of "Bank Holidays" and religious holidays (more than 10), on average about 30 days leave a year, which I can assure you they all take, sickness and absenteeism is a national sport, I could go on." Wow, you mean I could have off during the end of the year. Gee thanks boss. Sorry but the only workers I know who get off at Christmas are teachers. What other average worker gets off?
"Germany, another Catholic country has umpteen religious and public holidays." I'm Catholic and missed all these holidays, please tell my boss.
Also Andy, what is a maroon?
-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), May 03, 1999.
a maroon is anyone who eats kidney pie. I hear they boil the piss out of them.....
-- namby-pamby (english@wanker.guv), May 03, 1999.
I'm sorry, but the more I thought about it, the more absurd the basic premise became.Not the calculation of "work days". But the statement:
So - about <120 days is all we have left to fix everything in the USA. Oh boy.
My current project went live today. Every weekend for the last month and a half was spent doing either testing of system/data conversions, or the actual production cutovers.
My estimate would be that every hour remaining will be used by someone, somewhere in fixing and addressing Y2k.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-dejanews.com), May 03, 1999.
Andy,Yes, I will post it at my Web site -- provided you give your full name (I require that of anyone who posts an article), and provided you first answer MY question: Name one embedded system with a Y2K bug that won't be fixed in time. Give the reasons WHY you feel that it can't be fixed, replaced, or worked around in time. The question's valid because in another thread, you said that "legacy and embedded systems" are the real problems.
As for your article here, you can get a clue by reading my Bad Meat Scenario.
Robin Cook even wrote a book about that not too long ago, so it MUST be for real. Heh.
-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 03, 1999.
Namby,It's STEAK AND KIDNEY pie, and is quite delicious with a good pint and good company in Ye Olde Frog and Firkin on a sunny day on the banks of the river Thames.
You should live a little and try it. Can't beat a good helping of fresh CJD.
Yummy.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999.
Y2K Proj Mgr,No offence taken or meant - this goes for most of my replies on this forum :)
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999.
Hoff - consider what you've just said...So - about <120 days is all we have left to fix everything in the USA. Oh boy.
My current project went live today. Every weekend for the last month and a half was spent doing either testing of system/data conversions, or the actual production cutovers. ========================================================
******* Me too. My Company is in winderful shape and made worldwide headlines recently with a successful dipping of the toes into 2000.
This of course proves nothing, as does the success of your company's efforts so far.
Neither of us are testing in the real world where we will be interfacing with all current interfaces - that will be buggy, suspect, with bad data flowing to and fro.
But of course my main problem with your statement is that it quite misses the obvious - one success story, now, (congrats!) in a sea of a gazillion other, equally as important, projects.
Re-read Big Dogs figures above.
My piece, as I've pointed out, emphasised the worldwide remediation efforts.
On this score, all data points coming in indicate a sorry state of affairs. ******* =============================================================
My estimate would be that every hour remaining will be used by someone, somewhere in fixing and addressing Y2k.
============================================================ ******* Pure wishfull thinking, I won't bore you with repeating myself. Yes I will. Conscientious company's and countries will. Many SME's (most, actually) and countries alas do not fall into this category. The news is not good. Take a look at the Russ Kelly ongoing poll of experts on how they think the whole shebang is progresing.
Link at
http://www.russkelly.com/experts.html
These are the baseline results, which make VERY sobering reading and back up my essay completely.
? Joel Ackerman. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.0. December 1998- 8.2. Executive Director, Rx2000 Solutions Institute. Former Vice-President, International Information Systems at United Healthcare Corporation. Over 25 years experience in systems development and management. Bachelor of Computer Science and MBA in Management Information Systems. (www.rx2000.org) [Click here for statement from Joel]
? Dave Bettinger. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 6.5. August 1998- 7.5. October 1998- 7.8. December 1998- 7.8. January 1999-7.8. February 1999- 7.5. March 1999- 7.4. April 1999- 7.4. B.S.B.A.- Management. I.T. professional 16 years; Y2k practitioner 4 years. Author; frequent speaker on national circuit; co-leader of international year 2000 working group. (www.cst2000.com) [Click here for statement from Dave]
K Joe Boivin. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 9.5. August 1998- 9.6. October 1998- 9.7. December 1998- 9.8. January 1999- 9.9. February 1999- 9.9. March 1999- 10.0. April 1999- 10.0. May 1999- 10.0. Canadian, Year 2000 banking and management expert. Former Director of Year 2000 program for Canada's second largest bank (CIBC). President of the Global Millennium Foundation, a non-profit, non-partisan, organization committed to developing national and global level solutions to the Year 2000 technological crisis. http://www.globalmf.org [Click here for statement from Joe]
? Dr. Douglass Carmichael. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 7.0. January 1999- 5 to 8. March 1999- 6 to 8. (Good odds
) Psychotherapist and consultant in the intersection between people and organizations, psychology, technology, economics and politics. Author, researcher, writer. Ph.D. psychology, California Institute of Technology-physics, Harvard University Cognitive Studies- Brunner, Mexican Institute of Psychoanalysis - Erich Fromm, Washington School of Psychiatry, advanced psychotherapy. http://www.tmn.com/~doug/ [Click here for statement from Doug] ? Dennis Elenburg (aka "The Y2k Weatherman"). Ranking of problem: June 1998- 7.77. August 1998- 7.77. October 1998- 7.77. December 1998- 7.77. January 1999- 7.77. February 1999- 7.1. April 1999- 7.1. Dennis specifically wants you to note his statement on the ranking by clicking on "Statement from Dennis" below. Y2k Consultant to a major telecommunications company, editor of the free Y2kWatch News email list that reaches 20,000 subscribers, and vocal advocate for Y2k personal preparedness. (http://Y2kWatch.com/) [Click here for statement from Dennis]
? Thierry Falissard. Ranking of problem: August 1998- 9.0. October 1998- 9.0. December 1998- 8.5. January 1999- 8.5. February 1999- 8.5. March 1999- 8.5. April 1999- 8.5. French. Software developer and Systems engineer with 17 years experience working on mainframe systems. Author of 4 books about systems and of many articles in French and English IT press. 2 years dedicated to y2k issues. http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/tfalissard [Click here for statement from Thierry]
L Karl Feilder. Ranking of problem: July 1998- 5.0. August 1998: 6.0. October 1998- 6.0. December 1998- 6.0. January 1999- 5.0. February 1999- 6.0. March 1999- 7.0. April 1999- 7.0. May 1999- 7.5. CEO of Greenwich Mean Time, international expert on the Y2K PC problem and its resolution. PC Program Coordinator of the UK government's Year 2000 taskforce, Action 2000. He also has been appointed PC Program Advisor for the Australian government's Year 2000 taskforce, and Honorary Advisor to the South African Government. (http://www.feilder.com) [Click here for statement from Karl]
L Mark Frautschi. Ranking of problem: January 1999- 7.0. February 1999- 7.0. March 1999- 6.2. April 1999- 5.8 to 7.8. May 1999- 6.0 to 8.0. Physicist by training, Dr. Frautschi was introduced to y2k in 1997 through his interest in the interface between the social and scientific sides of organizations like the national laboratories, where he conducted his high-energy physics research. He is the author of several articles on Y2k and frequently gives presentations and interviews about this rapidly evolving subject. (http://www.tmn.com/~frautsch/) [Click here for statement from Mark]
L Dr. Paula Gordon. Ranking of problem: February 1999- 8.0. May 1999- 9.0. Visiting Research Professor and Director of Special Projects in the Research Program in Social and Organizational Learning, School of Business and Public Management at George Washington University in Washington, DC. She speaks and writes on Y2K. Her White Paper on Y2K: "A Call to Action: National and Global Implications of the Year 2000 and Embedded Systems Crisis" is at her website. (http://www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon) [Click here for statement from Paula]
K Dr. Reynolds Griffith. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 7.5. August 1998- 7.6. October 1998- 7.6. December 1998- 7.6. January 1999- 7.6 February 1999- 7.4. March 1999- 7.2. April 1999- 7.2. May 1999- 7.2. Professor of Finance at Stephen F.Austin State University. Ph.D. from the University of Texas at Austin. Holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. He has been researching the Year 2000 Problem since early 1997 and has written papers and articles related to it. (http://cobweb.sfasu.edu/~rg/rgy2k.htm) [Click here for statement from Reynolds]
K Cory K. Hamasaki. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 7.0. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 7.0. March 1999- 7.0. May 1999- 7.0. BA Chemistry, MS Computer Science - the George Washington University, 29 years in S/360-S390 systems programming and large systems. Discovered the 000197AF decade roll over problem in 1979, documented in Risks Digest. (http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html) [Click here for statement from Cory]
? Dr. Leon Kappleman. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 6.0. Associate Professor at Univ. of No. Texas, Chair and Co-Chair of Computer and Year 2000 groups. www.year2000.unt.edu/kappelma/
L Russ Kelly. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.3. October 1998- 8.5. December 1998- 8.7. January 1999- 8.7. February 1999- 8.5. March 1999- 8.5. April 1999- 8.8. May 1999- 8.9. 36 year software development pioneer, speaker on year 2000 issues, editor of "Kelly's Year 2000 Digest", and weekly radio talk show host of "Year 2000 and You." www.russkelly.com [Click here for statement from Russ]
K Roleigh Martin. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 5 to 9. March 1999- 5.5 to 9.0. May 1999- 5.5 to 9.0. Master of Arts in Sociology, 21 years in Data Processing, writer and speaker on "Y2K Embedded Systems Threat." http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin [Click here for statement from Roleigh]
? Michael Maynard. Ranking of problem: February 1999- 5.0. March 1999- 6.0. April 1999- 4.0. Michael Maynard is President of Azimuth Partners, Inc, a management and technology consulting company. He has led Y2K remediation projects for 5 years. He is columnist at large for NewsBytes and senior editor of Intenational Business publications. (www.azipart.com) [Click here for statement from Michael]
? Dr. Gary North. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 10.0. August 1998- 10.0. October 1998- 10.0. December 1998- 10.0. January 1999- 10.0. April 1999- 10.0. Historian, Ph.D. in history. No known information technology background. www.garynorth.com [Click here for statement from Gary].
J Dr. Scott Olmsted. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.0. October 1998- 8.5. December 1998- 8.7. January 1999- 8.7. March 1999- 8.7. April 1999- 8.5. May 1999- 8.0. Doctorate in Engineering- Economic Systems from Stanford. 20 year software veteran. www.prepare4y2k.com [Click here for statement from Scott]
J Charles Reuben. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 7.2. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 7.0. January 1999- 6.7. February 1999- 6.7. March 1999- 5.5. April 1999- 3.5 to 4.5. May 1999- 2.0 to 3.5. B.Sc. (Physics,Chemistry,Biology), M.A.(Mathematics), Businessman,Dallas ..programs in 9 languages has been working with Computers for 20 years.. home.swbell.net/buytexas/y2k3link.htm [Click here for statement from Charles]
J Alan Simpson. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.0. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 6.0. January 1999- 6.0. February 1999- 5.5. April 1999- 5.0. May 1999- 4.5. Author. Information Technology executive. International broadcaster and speaker. Satellite communications pioneer. www.comlinks.com [Click here for statement from Alan]
? Harlan Smith. Ranking of Problem: June 1998- 7.5. August 1998- 8.0. December 1998- 8.0. February 1999- 8.2. April 1999- 6.0. Electronics engineer (retired) with 36 years experience of working on complex military radar systems. Author of "Synergistic Mitigation and Contingency Preparation" (http://2000.jbaworld.com/people/smith_h.htm) [Click here for statement from Harlan]
? Bruce F. Webster. Ranking of problem: March 1998 - 7.0. October 1998 - 5.0. March 1999 - 5.8. April 1999- 5.8. BCSC, IT professional 20 years, Y2K practitioner 2+ years. Co-founder and co-chair of the Washington D.C. Year 2000 Group (www.wdcy2k.org); testified before Congress 3x on Y2K; private presentations to World Bank, US intelligence community, representatives of foreign governments, Congressional staff; speaker/chair at 10+ conferences; author of The Y2K Survival Guide (Prentice-Hall, 1999). (www.bfwa.com) [Click here for statement from Bruce]
L Timothy J Wilbur. Ranking of problem: February 1999- 8.5. March 1999- 9.0. April 1999- 9.1. May 1999- 9.2. Dip,. Social Scientist, Research Development and Analysis, Personal Computer Business Management Consultant; Author, Y2K lecturer, founder the Beyond 2000 Awareness Project; Dip,. Homoeopathy, Iridology, Family Therapy. (http://www.webit-designs.com/beyond2000) [Click here for statement from Timothy]
L Ed Yourdon. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. February 1999- 8.5. May 1999- 7.0 to 9.0. Prolific author, 30 year programming pioneer, B.S. in applied mathmatics from MIT. (www.yourdon.com) [Click here for statement from Ed]
J Nicholas Zvegintzov. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 1.0. October 1998- 1.0. December 1998- 1.0. January 1999- 1.0. February 1999- 1.0. March 1999- 1.0. April 1999- 0.9. May 1999- 0.8. Author, speaker, software company president. M.A. from Oxford Univ. in Experimental Psychology and Philosophy. Researched in computer science and artificial intelligence at UC Berkeley and Carnegie-Mellon. 35 year software veteran. (http://www.softwaremanagement.com) [Click here for statement from Nicholas] *******
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 03, 1999.
i think russ kelly is stacking the deck with pessimstthe "new" guys are mostly going up to 10 russ said no new people would be added
-- Just me (Just@m.e), May 03, 1999.
Andy, you missed my point. It had nothing to do with the success or failure of the project, or the status of the company as a whole.No, the point was specifically addressing your 120 day premise. And it's wrong. Weekends, Holidays, Evenings are all fair game, and being used somewhere. No different really than any other project.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-dejanews.com), May 03, 1999.
No Hoff believe it or not YOU are wrong - just look at the evidence I've presented.Of course YOU are correct and all these industry Boadiceas are wrong?
You can lead a horse to water Mr. Meister, but you cannot make the stubborn old nag drink!
Later,
P.S.
Poole,
Wait your turn - you are going to cost lives, seriously, with your skewed propaganda on your so-called "Christian" web site.
What a "Christian" thing you are doing
Hey, but Mr. EGO, you know best.......
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), May 04, 1999.
Yes, Andy. Everyone of them said nobody would be working evenings, weekends and holidays.I'm sure it's there somewhere....
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-dejanews.com), May 04, 1999.
Andy,You're selling something related to Y2K, and you're afraid that people like me hurt your business; is that it? That's the only thing I can think of that could explain why you've begun resorting to outright lies.
Why don't we post the link to my site again and let people go there and see for themselves?
(Hint: be sure to read the topics, "Where I Stand" and "Whatever Happened To Faith.")
-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), May 04, 1999.
(From Poole's Web Site)Where I Stand
See the article, The State Of Y2K. There's so much good news coming out about Y2K now, I'm not even sure I need to keep this section on the main page, save to answer the occasional flame mail from a moron who thinks I "want people to die" or some such nonsense.
I'll never criticize someone for making commonsense preparations -- buying some extra food, having a jug or two of water on hand, that sort of thing. Frankly, having lived through several hurricanes, I do that myself and think anyone should (and shouldn't have waited for Y2K to do it!).
(Maybe the real problem is, we're too used to being able to run to the Superstore on the way home and pick up medicine, milk and bread at need. When I was growing up, you bought several day's worth at the store at a time. My wife and I still shop that way.)
Do I think there will be problems in January, 2000? Sure, but there are problems already. Technology is buggy and fails all the time now; we work around it (I make this point in great detail elsewhere, believe me).
But I also have to say that I don't think there will be serious problems due to Y2K, certainly not here in the United States. Except for a few isolated cases (which will undoubtedly make the news for a few nights), your lights will stay on. Your faucets will still produce water. Your neighborhood supermarket will still have food. Your bank will still be in business. Anyone who tells you otherwise is basing their claim on older information or plain paranoia and distrust; take them with a grain of salt.
--------------------------- My comments:
Poole is entitled to his opinion, but readers here should understand that I am either "basing my claims on older information" or "plain paranoia and distrust." (BTW, my claim, as above, is that a max of 80% of worldwide enterprises and 50% of SMEs will have mission- critical systems only ready, as reported by the MOST optimistic Y2K analysts; lower figures are common. I do TRUST those figures as the max possibility on remediation).
According to Poole, when you're prepping for Y2K, keep a jug of water on hand and a few days of food (AS IF you don't normally have a few days of food on hand). The point is transparent and, indeed Poole is a lot franker on his site than he is here: Y2K is not a problem AT ALL as of NOW. Except maybe overseas to some undetermined extent that will not affect us.
Talk about moronic.
As for your Christian theology, it seems mainly a hackneyed attack on North, which is tired stuff, but that's fine. BTW, I am not a reconstructionist. So what. Boring. And the idea that believers are flocking to Y2K as end-of-the-world stuff is even more tired. The vast majority, vast, are as blissfully unprepared as YOU WANT THEM TO BE. You should be delighted, Poole.
If I can find the motivation, doubtful, I'll take a stab at deconstructing your Christian stuff on Pastor Chris' forum.
As for your crack at Andy, nice try. What is the "lie", BTW? The only thing Andy is selling is his time remediating Y2K directly. I assume this is permissable? Then, again, Andy, why are you doing that? Y2K is fixed .... hmmm, you MUST be hustling something unneeded after all!
-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), May 04, 1999.
Stephen Poole and Hoff talking to each other after jumping off the World Trade Center:"See...no problems so far!"
-- a (a@a.a), May 04, 1999.
off.
-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), May 04, 1999.