AN ASSESSMENT OF THE SECOND QUARTERLY SUMMARY
By James Gregory

The PRESIDENT'S COUNCIL ON YEAR 2000 CONVERSION issued its second quarterly assessment in April. The upbeat 49-page report informs us that Y2K awareness is now quite widespread, coordinators have been designated, plans are being developed or are underway, fewer problems have been found than anticipated, progress is being made, and systems will be tested and implemented by July 1, or October 1, or after January 1, depending on which industrial or governmental sector is being discussed. In summary, the Y2K challenge has been largely solved already, or will be soon.

The report admits, however, that there are a number of exceptions to this cheery picture:

• Despite the best efforts of many in government and industry, it is clear there is still much work to be done and questions unanswered: How many systems will experience difficulties? How severe will those difficulties be? What disruptions will they create? There is particular concern about the Y2K readiness of healthcare providers.

• Organizations that are not paying appropriate attention to the problem or adopting a "wait and see" strategy are putting themselves -- and those who depend on them -- at great risk. This position is most prevalent among small businesses and local governments.

• Concerns exist with the 1,300 small and medium-sized telephone companies where there is limited information about the status of their Y2K efforts.

• There is concern about those power companies that are not participating in industry assessments and for whom data is not available.

• The pharmaceutical sector is concerned about the readiness of international suppliers; particularly troublesome is the area of generic pharmaceuticals, where 90 percent of supplies originate overseas.

• There are significant concerns about the readiness of some airports, international aviation partners, and international ports and shipping.

• It appears that a number of countries will experience Y2K failure in key infrastructures. In particular, Middle Eastern countries that produce much of the world's oil have been slow to act on the problem.

Y2K analyst Victor Porlier dryly observes that we are expected to remain sanguine in the face of these dichotomies. "What we have here is another triumph of slogan over substance....American political discourse -- and let's be very clear, Y2K is now a political issue -- rewards simplicity over complexity, victory over governing, the positive over the negative, and image over reality."

Porlier goes on to say:

"This quarterly report is essentially a summary of unverified self-appraisals of progress in mission-critical systems issued by corporate CEOs and government agency directors....Their statements are the results of surveys only partially responded to....Is it a reasonable speculation that those furthest along are most likely to respond to such surveys?"

"Nothing is said about the on-going debate concerning embedded systems,...only the assertion that the embedded system problem is turning out to be less than anticipated."

"We are given the reported percentage of systems remediated, tested, and implemented. No indication that there has been any slippage in reaching milestones, as there admittedly has been."

"And so it goes -- the upbeat projections trump the reality and continue to set the tone of public discourse and reporting. The only dissenting voices seem to be...those programmers actually struggling with Y2K remediation efforts. As the owner of a large wood stove store in Albany was reported to have said last week, 'We have a lot of computer programmers coming in to look and purchase wood-burning stoves.' Ask yourself, 'What do they know that the rest of us don't?'"

Y2KNEWSWIRE Editor, Mike Adams, took it upon himself to translate the Report into plain English. He analyzed the text and searched out not only what was being stated, but also what was not being stated. Y2KNewswire took great pains to point out that Adam's translation was not "our version" of the report, since, in their opinion, there were many things contained in the quarterly report that they thought were inaccurate or understated. In order to have their say, they created a separate (and quite remarkable) document consisting of three columns: the original report, the translation, and Y2KNewsire's comments. Here is a sampling of excerpts from the report and Y2KNewswire's corresponding edited comments:

"Overall, the report actually seems to outline a new position for the Council, and while it still speaks mildly of potential Y2K problems, it simultaneously acknowledges the reality of several major problems as well as international dependencies. But in some areas, the report falls flat. The statement, for example, that grocery stores stock weeks of food simply runs counter to the first-hand knowledge of the way grocery stores operate. And the outright declaration that today's farming is all done manually certainly seems bizarre. Perhaps the authors of the report have not recently visited the high-tech, high-output and high-automation farms now keeping the city populations fed."

The Report Says: GENERAL MOTORS and several other automakers report that most of the computers in their cars and trucks do not have date-related functionality and, therefore, pose no Year 2000-related problems. Those few systems that have date-related functionality have been found to be Year 2000 ready.

Y2KNewswire Comments: This misses the big issue: the compliance of the auto industry. With tens of thousands of suppliers, what happens if GM can't get all the parts and services necessary to assemble cars? This critical point was not mentioned anywhere in the report.

The Report Says: Industry surveys reveal that it is highly unlikely that there will be national disruptions in electric power service on January 1, 2000. More than two-thirds of critical systems within the industry are now Y2K ready before the industry-wide target date of June 30, 1999, and with continued progress and properly coordinated contingency planning, the Nation's electric power supply and delivery systems will be able to operate reliably into the Year 2000.

Y2KNewswire Comments: This is an unjustified claim. In fact, two-thirds are self-reporting they are ready. Virtually none of these claims have been independently verified.

The Report Says: Financial institutions -- from banks to securities firms -- have been making excellent progress in preparing systems for the Year 2000 and it is not expected that industry systems will experience widespread or prolonged Y2K related problems.

Y2KNewswire Comments: If banks are so far ahead, and they're still not finished, how will the other industries manage to finish on time?

The Report Says: The Council will convene industry meetings this spring for food supply, pharmaceuticals, hospital supply, and mass transit. There is a need for additional information in all of these areas, with the exception of mass transit, about the supply chain's ability to respond to potential increases in demand at the end of 1999.

Y2KNewswire Comments: The Council is basically implying that people might engage in last-minute food buying. We've never heard them acknowledge that possibility before.

The Report Says: The Council will launch an initiative this summer to increase Y2K information sharing at the local level....The goal of the initiative is to have local government officials and service providers hold "community conversations" with constituents and customers to explain the range of their organization's Y2K activities and the outlook for continuity of local services during the Y2K transition.

Y2KNewswire Comments: For the Council's report to now advocate some form of "local preparedness planning" almost seems contradictory. Where is the call for preparedness planning at the individual level?

(Sources: Victor Porlier, WESTERGAARD YEAR 2000, 4/28/1999; Y2KNEWSWIRE, 4/29/1999)

Report in plain English (translated by Y2KNewswire): http://www.y2knewswire.com/19990429.htm

Y2KNewswire Translation with comments: http://www.y2knewswire.com/translation.htm

Victor Porlier: http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/DSA/VP/vp9917.htm

The original President's Year 2000 Council document: http://www.y2k.gov/new/FINAL3.htm

-- Bill (billdale@lakesnet.net), May 02, 1999