Computer Weekly (UK computer trade paper, 29th April) reports "Beginning of end if IT boom?". Advertised job vacancies have fallen 9%, advertised salaries have risen by little more than inflation, vacancies in Banking and finance have fallen by 15%. None of this is suggestive of any desperate Y2K completion panic, and the paper reports that one of the causes is that Y2K projects are now being completed and Y2K teams wound down.

Does this fit together with the lack of reported end-of-year and JoeAnne effect problems and suggest, maybe, that a little more optimism is called for? (The only doomish explanation I can think of is that employers have given up advertising because it doesn't get useful responses, and that all Y2K panicing is now done via recruitment agencies and word-of-mouth).

The report is online here though you may have to register to see it (free) and the link may be short-lived (1 week?)

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), April 30, 1999

Answers

I think the problems will occur with the many organisations who will not complete their projects on time (but they think they can with the current budgets/staff levels),

attempt to fix on failure

do not consider y2k as a threat

Of course there will be many companies who will complete y2k, the majority the 5-20% who do not will cause a worsening recession and or chaos

-- dick of the dale (rdale@coynet.com), April 30, 1999.

I think a few years ago, it was assumed that most companies would outsource their y2k work. Projections of staff shortfalls was based on that assumption. Now we know that over 90% of firms are doing it in-house (with windowing as often as not).

This means 1) a lack of professional y2k approaches 2) a mode of repair highly likely to strike on 1/1/00 without prior warning 3) a lack of windfall profits to programmers (which might also give warning signs as to the size of the y2k internal panic).

So the corruption of the system is silent, without offering much warning. Oh my.

-- David Holladay (davidh@brailleplanet.org), April 30, 1999.

Nigil,

I've been all over the map in my programming career but currently I work developing software for the recruiting industry. I can tell you, at least here in the US, that there is a SEVERE shortage of programmers. I doubt it's going to get better anytime soon...

-TECH32-

-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), April 30, 1999.

ditto. i've worked in the software industry for 10 yrs. finding good programmers has always been tough. now, its almost impossible.

-- lou navarro (lanny1@ix.netcom.com), April 30, 1999.