Australia Puts Faith In Y2K Defenses 12:42 p.m. Apr 29, 1999 Eastern

By Richard Pullin

SYDNEY, Australia (Reuters) - When the clock ticks midnight in Sydney Dec. 31, millennium bug experts around the world will be watching.

Most expect some problems as the first major metropolis to ring in 2000 finds out whether the phones still work and the electricity stays on. But those who have been driving Australia's efforts to tackle the Y2K bug believe the country has earned its reputation as a leader in ensuring that date-sensitive technology will keep working after midnight.

``I am not complacent. We won't breeze through it and there will be disruptions,'' said Maurice Newman, chairman of the government-sponsored Y2K industry task force. ``(But) by and large it's fair to say ... Australia is up there as one of the best prepared if not the best prepared country in the world.''

The Australian Bureau of Statistics expects the country to spend about A$19 billion (US$12 billion) on the millennium bug, which arises because many computers use only two digit numbers for years and could interpret 2000 as 1900. The issue has been publicized widely and preparations by the finance industry, in particular, have been closely scrutinized by regulators.

That industry, which depends on information technology and has had to deal with forward dates into the next century for years, identified the problem early, Chris Morris, research director for consultancy Gartner Group Asia Pacific, said.

All 1,250 listed companies have twice detailed their Y2K plans for the Australian Stock Exchange, which is coordinating a three-week Year 2000 test simulating trading on Jan. 1.

GOVERNMENT, UTILITIES A CONCERN

The main problem areas include government, especially local government, utilities such as power and water, which have been short on public information, and small business.

``The messages out of Canberra are mixed. The official spokesperson is always fairly upbeat ... but once you get down a few levels things aren't going quite as well as they should,'' Morris said. ``It's a typical software development project. It's running over plan, over budget and with persistent delays.''

Victoria state recently boosted Y2K spending by 40 percent, pushing the money toward health care and transport, and other states have begun to acknowledge the scale of the problem.

The Y2K industry task force has also criticized the lack of information from utilities such as power and water, although Newman says he believes they are now making good progress. Utilities have also been criticized by business users who want more information to help with contingency plans.

``The response is typically 'Trust us, it will be OK,''' Morris said, although he expects better information to be available by mid-year.

Small businesses, another task force target, have been slow to catch on and up to 20 percent are not expected to do anything, while local government has also fallen behind.

Newman also sees risks to companies that rely on materials from overseas and could be affected by breakdowns in manufacture or shipping in countries less well prepared. ``The real risks in Australia are not so much domestic as those which are posed to the supply chains from outside,'' he said.

FEWER SURVIVALIST CALLS THAN ELSEWHERE

The next stage for official campaigns is to focus business attention on supply chains and then finally to reassure people that essential services will work.

``The calls for survivalist measures haven't had the same sort of currency in Australia as they have had in other places,'' Newman said.

But not everything will work around the changeover date. Warnings include services at city buildings, especially older ones, and the potential for power outages or surges, although most say it is still too early to assess their impact.

Graeme Inchley, chief executive of the Y2K industry task force, says Australia's time zone may make it hard to phone the country on Jan. 1 simply because many panic-stricken overseas callers might be calling to find out if the lights are on.

``I would not be surprised if there was a blip in terms of (telecommunications) demand, purely because of the perception that there could be a problem,'' he said. ``How big that is is debatable. I think if you took the general community in Australia, most of them will just want to party at New Year.''

-- Norm (nwo@hotmail.com), April 29, 1999

Answers

Norm, I'm going to translate this to anti-mumble language.

Mumble, mumble. . . Most expect some problems, mumble, mumble. . .``I am not complacent. We won't breeze through it and there will be disruptions,''mumble, mumble. . . The main problem areas include government especially local government, utilities such as power and water. . . and small business.

``The messages out of Canberra [Oz capital, i.e., government] are mixed. The official spokesperson is always fairly upbeat ... but once you get down a few levels things aren't going quite as well as they should,'' Morris said. ``It's a typical software development project. It's running over plan, over budget and with persistent delays.''

Victoria state recently boosted Y2K spending by 40 percent, pushing the money toward health care and transport, and other states have begun to acknowledge the scale of the problem.

The Y2K industry task force has also criticized the lack of information from utilities such as power and water, although Newman says he believes they are now making good progress. Utilities have also been criticized by business users who want more information to help with contingency plans.

``The response is typically 'Trust us, it will be OK,''' Morris said, although he expects better information to be available by mid-year.

Small businesses, another task force target, have been slow to catch on and up to 20 percent are not expected to do anything, while local government has also fallen behind.

Newman also sees risks to companies that rely on materials from overseas and could be affected by breakdowns in manufacture or shipping in countries less well prepared. ``The real risks in Australia are not so much domestic as those which are posed to the supply chains from outside,'' he said.

Mumble, mumble. . . But not everything will work around the changeover date. Warnings include services at city buildings, especially older ones, and the potential for power outages or surges, although most say it is still too early to assess their impact.

Oz may be ready--but ready for what?

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), April 29, 1999.

I agree Ol'Git. I have too many good friends in Australia. Not one of them thinks the lights will stay on except maybe Tasmania which is an island, hydro power and they are not too up to date and mostly manual. One friend is a Dean at the U of Queensland and he has a lap top growing out of his elbow. His wife swears he sleeps with it. He says there isn't a chance in hell that they will come through without serious problems. However, if you get out of Perth, Sydney and Melbourne, you will still find a lot of self reliance in the people and they will fare better than their counter parts in the States. The other thing with the land of Oz, is their bloody holiday scheme. Everyone will be off from before Christmas until after New Years. The Gov't just shuts down, period!! After Dec 1st you might as well forget trying to get anything done until at least Jan 15. Been there, done that. Plus the fact that most things one would go to the court house for here in the States, one goes to the post office in Oz. And the post office is either closed for holiday or on a bloody strike!!

Got lots of mutton???????

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), April 29, 1999.

I live in Australia. Taz is absolutely right on most of what he says.

-- Leo (lchampion@ozemail.com.au), April 29, 1999.

Pssst, Leo. (Whisper.) Taz is a female type person.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), April 30, 1999.