What the Experts Think.....April 1999

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread


It doesn't look good.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), April 27, 1999


Direct Link

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), April 27, 1999.

You must all remember, there are no experts. As soon as you think you are, you better re-evaluate.

-- Dennis Tolliver (tolly@dtgnet.com), April 27, 1999.

The median estimate of the 23 responses is a 7.1

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), April 27, 1999.

If you only use the responses of the 16 who answered the April 1999 survey, the median estimate is between 7.1 and 7.2

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), April 27, 1999.

Only two of the 23 estimate that Y2K will be a 10--Joe Boivin and Gary North. You can read the individual statements of the 23 at this link:


-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), April 27, 1999.

I have to give Gary North credit for consistency. He has predicted a ten for 20 years.


-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), April 27, 1999.

This just up on UPI Wire; hard to find a thread where it will fit!

[ For Educational Purposes Only ]

Wednesday, 28 April 1999 1:33 (GMT), (UPI Spotlight)

Hearing on medical Y2K compliance
WASHINGTON, April 27 (UPI) - Three government officials told a congressional hearing today that patients relying on some medical equipment for their survival may be at risk next New Year's Day. They said despite the claims of manufacturers that their medical devices are immune to the Y2K bug, the federal government has not tested those claims to be sure the equipment actually is safe.
xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), April 27, 1999.

Russ Kelly's expert survey is a subjective one, by any measure.

He doesn't include experts such as Peter deJager, Edward Yardeni, Howard Belasco, Dick Mills, Sen. Bob Bennett, Sen. Chris Dodd, Rep. Stephen Horn, Rep. Constance Morella, John Koskinen, et al.

And some of the 'experts' referenced on Kelly's site have been pretty well debunked/exposed as frauds, charlatans, and profiteers (Frautschi, Hamasaki, Martin, North, Yourdon).

If the 'panel' was weighted more towards those who didn't have something to sell; those who have a truly honest interest in this issue; we'd see a substantially lower cumulative score.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), April 28, 1999.


I agree it would be nice if the list were expanded.

But Chicken, EVERYONE has something to sell. For starters, how about political image? Power depends upon staying in office. Ya gotta have voter approval to do THAT.


-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), April 28, 1999.

Any site that lists Gary North as a expert on Y2K has to be wrong, and is. Want a two year subscription to my newsletter?

-- Pat (BAMECW@aol.com), April 28, 1999.

This thread seems to have unintentionally touched a nerve. Here's the methodology that Russ Kelly used:



Below is a list of individuals that are the most widely quoted authorties on "year 2000" issues. A short biographical background and statement provided by the individual is shown.


The purpose, and how the experts were selected

The purpose of this "experts" page is to bring leading year 2000 experts together in one place to provide a summarized, concise reading of their collective wisdom regarding seriousness of the year 2000 problem. Also, to provide trend information every two months during 1998, and each month during 1999. With this in mind, the page represents many diciplines including software development, embedded logic, hardware professionals, human behaviour specialists, economists, social scientists, senior executives, and others with specific knowledge and experience of year 2000 issues. So that trend information is consistent with the past trending basis, no additional year 2000 experts are being added to the page.


-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), April 28, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ