I don't know what to say at this moment. I have just read this report. It doesn't need explaining due to the exacting detail provided. The URL is so long I would never get it right. Go to Search, type "International Trade Administration". Go to "Year 2000 Problem." Start at the top or scroll down to "Energy Production and Distribution." After that section is, "Transportation Modes." It is all laid out for you. Please read it and report your thoughts to this thread. I rest my case about the lack of fuel for generation of electricity in this country. I will quote this from the report, "In 1998, the U.S. Coast Guard surveyed marine manufacturers and discovered that over 20 percent of the embedded chips tested were not y2k compliant." Do not tell me that we have no problem with embedded chips. I encourage Factfinder & Co. to read this report.

-- Anonymous, April 27, 1999

Answers

Also read "Petroleum Products" in this report.

-- Anonymous, April 27, 1999

Clickable Link:
 
U.S. International Trade Administration Report
 
 
It's a lengthy report which includes a special link on the page to download the entire report. I second Marcella's comments. It's a must-read.
 
Dan


-- Anonymous, April 27, 1999

Marcella,

I have read the report. It does not look good. You correctly quote the fact that the Coast Guard cites a 20%non-complaint chip rate. However, a Coast Guard representative recently reported to Bennett's Committee that the non-compliant chip problem has been over stated. Who you gonna belive, Coast Guard Present or Coast Guard Past?

Makes a grown man want to cry.

-- Anonymous, April 27, 1999

I very strongly suggest people spend a lot of time with that report. I have gone through it once, and hope to spend a lot more time in it, because even in the first pass, I saw a lot of confirmation of some of my worries. But I want to go through it more closely before commenting on it in depth.

-- Anonymous, April 27, 1999

"IT and Telecommunications Equipment" section of the report is also edge-of-seat reading, particularly as it outlines the reliance of our domestic utilities, petroleum, and communications infrastructure upon fragile overseas IT supply chains subject to Asian noncompliance, etc.

In addition to this disturbing Trade Administration report, I'm sure many are aware of John Koskinen's newly-released negative assessment regarding international y2k compliance progress. (See April 21, 1999 press release by President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion - Link http://www.y2k.gov/new/0421PRLS.htm )

Koskinen now predicts **likelihood of infrastructure failures overseas, impacting Americans at home and abroad**, due to the late start by many countries. Koskinen notes significant progress in domestic electric power, telecommunications, and banking, but cautions against "resting on our laurels." He also cites lack of information about international maritime shipping as well as readiness concerns about small and medium-sized organizations (among other things).

Since Koskinen has often been criticized for understating or even suppressing bad news, this press release should receive extra attention from those of us making preparations based on risk assessment.

Taken together, the Trade Administration analysis and Koskinen's new predictions do not a pretty picture paint. Given the complexity of global trade, it seems absurd to continue to deny U.S. domestic risks.

-- Anonymous, April 28, 1999

Very astute catch on this info, Marcella. Thanks.

This is one of the major areas of concern that I have. I worked in international trade for several years.

Believe you me, it is hard enough to process the trade of goods through all the different processes required when things are working well. As an International Traffic Manager, I imported and exported many millions of dollars worth of items around the world before the new computer implementations made it so much easier. often chartering whole ships for a voyage.

Containerization, the development of giant container ships and ro-ro (roll on roll off) ships, and computerization are the three major things that have really contributed the most to dramatic increase in world trade, not politics and import/export trade laws, and trade negotiations. Screw up any one of these 3 support legs and world trade, as we know it today, comes to a stand still. Two of the 3 legs (ships and computers) are in jeopardy due to y2k.

As an example, though I haven't been involved recently, I understand that the large transfomers for high-tension transmission lines are no longer made in this country. During the good times, now, general lead time for these transformers is 18 months. Engineers tell me that these tranformers are in danger of overloading on the grid due to unbalanced power surges.

This is one of the major reasons that I think that preparing for a few days or a few weeks without power is going to be a futile effort.

-- Anonymous, April 28, 1999

Marcella: Y2k skeptics (one of which I am not) will probably point out correctly that there is often a big difference between y2k noncompliance and y2k loss of functionality of embedded controllers. I haven't read the report yet, but am hoping that it and other reports will speak more of functionality and less of date display errors.

-- Anonymous, April 28, 1999

xBob,

To put your comments in context, note that the report starts off by saying that international trade now represents over one-fifth of global output, and is crucial to the economic development & growth of all national economies.

(Yes, Rick,I know we're off-topic here :)

-- Anonymous, April 29, 1999

I would like to add something to xBob's good explanation of container shipping. First, many of these containers are refrigerated containers, necessary to transport perishables. They have air conditioning units attached. Second, the trucking industry also uses these refrigeration units to a large extent. When you're out driving anywhere, look at the trucks you pass. Or walk up to a semi parked in a truck stop. Or just ask a trucker about it. You'll see these units on the outside of a whole lot of trailers.

Now, not all that far from where I live there's a mfg. company which makes these air conditioning units. I've been told there are software maintenance programs incorporated into these units. It has been related to me that while the air conditioning mechanism itself has no Y2K issues, the dated maintenance routines may pose a problem. Yet I haven't seen or heard about any questions being asked in this regard. I have had one report that instructions on how to disconnect some maintenance routines from AC units, in the event of failure, have been sent out to large customers, but I can't verify this. It would be very nice to know that this potential issue has been or is being dealt with. Units such as these, by different manufacturers, are used worldwide and are of varying makes, models and ages.

As I have mentioned previously, there are so many interconnected levels of the Year 2000 date problem, from the obvious of dealing with any potential electric generating issues to the obscure or not-so-obvious risk areas, that I continue to maintain both corporate and personal risk management plans are sensible and logical.

-- Anonymous, April 29, 1999