To an audience of about 250 or so folksover at ABCnews chat on 4/23/99, a few Y2K opinions from Mitch Ratcliffe:

(MY only opinion is that Senator Bennett's office isn't going to be too happy with this guy. . .)

The Dreaded Nines Chat with Y2K Expert Mitch Ratcliffe

http://chat.abcnews.go.com/chat/chat.dll?Chat?room=abc_mitch990423#new

QUESTION DEALT WITH STATUS OF RAILROADS

RATCLIFFE ANSWER

"Most railroads in the US and Mexico are Y2K ready -- the primary problem they encountered was in switching control systems, and most of these problems have been repaired. Off the top of my head I can't recall which railroads are finished with or finishing their remediation, but the problems will be less severe than predicted.

In cases where systems weren't fixed, the rail crews will have to stop the train, switch manually, cross the switch, climb back down and reset the switch, and go on. It would be a slower process, but coal would continue moving.

Also, you should keep in mind that power generation facilities have 90 days of supply on hand most of the time, and many have increased those supplies for Y2K. We will not suffer a power shortage.

(Snip)

Interestingly, I recently finished "The Year 1000," a book about the turn of the last millennium. People were extremely agitated about the coming rollover, and breathed a collective sigh of relief when it passed. We will do the same.

QUESTION DEALT WITH STATUS OF UTILITIES

RATCLIFFE ANSWER

Well, there are several types of utilites, so let's stick to water supplies.... Senator Bob Bennett has been telling people about a water plant that had a major problem when it tested for Y2K -- but he won't name the plant. I find it hard to believe that a US Senator would circulate this kind of rumor without providing information about it. That's a large source of this concern.

Is there a problem? Probably a few plants will have some sort of problem, but those will be few and far between. If you talk with your utility, they will provide you the information you need to determine if you are at risk. If they won't, take it to the public utility commission.

Stockpiling more than a week's worth of any supplies is, for most folks, just plain foolish.

QUESTION: Is foreign industry ready for Y2K? And if not, where will most Americans see the effects of their lack of readiness?

Mitch Ratcliffe at 12:57pm ET

Not all foreign industry is ready, and as I said earlier, it's not easy to generalize. We keep finding it isn't as bad as we believe, but there is a real reason for concern about this.

Why? Not because we'll be cut off from supplies, but because those supplies will be more expensive. For example, the National Retail Federation said that silk ties will be in shorter supply come early 2000, so buy now! Really useful advice! Wrong!

But, whatever the impact of Y2K, the system will function, perhaps at a diminished capacity.

Rowena Holden from maine.rr.com at 12:57pm ET

Is it 100% certain yet that if you fly from the US on Jan 1, 2000 to Europe (Ireland specifically), everything should be fine?

Mitch Ratcliffe at 1:00pm ET It will be safe, fine's a matter of degrees. Air travel absolutely will be safe at the New Year. Boeing this week reconfirmed its planes operate safely. The FAA has tested its systems with post-2000 dates five times and found no major problems. The airlines are approaching readiness.

However, the solution in some parts of the world to Y2K problems will be reduced capacity. Flights will be cut back, causing backups around the globe. Travel at the New Year, though safe, may be very slow. It's already shaping up to be the busiest travel season in history, so any slow-downs will have a substantial effect, even here in the US.

QUESTION DEALT WITH WHETHER CARS WOULD BE AFFECTED

Mitch Ratcliffe at 1:03pm ET No cars anywhere will suffer Y2K problems that interfere with the operation of the vehicle. None, nada. Just won't be a problem. Buy the car. In fact, use the Y2K problem as a bargaining chip -- ask if the salesperson can tell you whether the car's okay. Then say that you'd like them to knock some of the price off because of the uncertainty.

Really, folks, cars will be fine.

Moderator at 1:04pm ET

Thanks for joining us today. Final thoughts?

Mitch Ratcliffe at 1:06pm ET

I think it's safe to say the clouds of misinformation are clearing on Y2K. It's still going to be an interesting year, particularly with regard to the way people react to the approaching New Year. And we'll have fun talking about it next time. I'm out of here to get more coffee....

Thanks, all.

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), April 23, 1999

Answers

Wow.Which ones Mitch? We wouldn't want to start any rumors.

-- KoFE (Your@town.USA), April 23, 1999.

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Bob Hagen from [208.228.57.253], at 12:35pm ET

I see much written that people should stockpile water for Y2K. I looked at our city's water treatment plant's control programs and they do not use any dates. In fact the clock year's on the 4 computers were set to 0001, 0001, 0002, and 1985. These type of systems do not use dates to perform their tasks. Why do people say that utilities are Y2K sensitive ?

Mitch Ratcliffe at 12:38pm ET

Well, there are several types of utilites, so let's stick to water supplies.... Senator Bob Bennett has been telling people about a water plant that had a major problem when it tested for Y2K -- but he won't name the plant. I find it hard to believe that a US Senator would circulate this kind of rumor without providing information about it. That's a large source of this concern.

Is there a problem? Probably a few plants will have some sort of problem, but those will be few and far between. If you talk with your utility, they will provide you the information you need to determine if you are at risk. If they won't, take it to the public utility commission.

Stockpiling more than a week's worth of any supplies is, for most folks, just plain foolish.

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-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), April 23, 1999.

Bold off!

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), April 23, 1999.

I like the scene out there on the Burlington Northern. (Remember, cabooses are no longer in use.)

A mile long train of hoppers loaded with coal comes to a switch that needs to be thrown. Train stops (takes quote a while). One of the crew drops off the engine, throws the switch. Train starts up and crosses the switch. And stops again. This takes a long time too. The crew member returns the switch to its original position, and returns to the engine at the head of the train. When he arrives the train starts up again.

All this in what can be very heavy weather, often subzero temperatures. (It's January and February.)

Repeat as needed between Sheridan, Wyoming and Chicago.

Ever try running in 24 inches of snow? at 30 deg. below zero?

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), April 23, 1999.

---the fastest GI I ever met was a friend of mine who works full time for csx--I hadn't seen him for awhile, ran into him in a parking lot, asked him was he hip to y2k, and started just mentioning embedded chips and he sez"OMIGAWD WE'RE SCREWED"--paraphrasing a little, but that was his comment. Been about the same whenever I met a non white collar worker/technician, and it's running over 90% of all the white collar puter guys I know or have met and talked to about this. Folks who have never actually fixed anything in their lives are the most likely to think y2k will be no big deal and that "they" will fix it. The "They's" seem to be predominantly, in my unscientific face to face polling, are all preparing heavy--must be a reason, thinks I........my favorite pollys are the folks who've asked their nephew, the video game family computer pee cee "expert"....HOOO HAWWWWW that's funny! Thanks for keeping the prices down for so long, pollys! hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe

-- zog (zog@avana.net), April 23, 1999.

and then there is the pollyanna who will not listen to any evidence of coming problems because one trusted person says it'll be fine.it's because we've given up control of our lives to the technocrats that this problem exists.pity the amish,they'll have no idea why they're being looted

-- zoobie (zoob@aol.com), April 24, 1999.