Tuesday April 20, 8:44 pm Eastern Time Wall St. slashes U.S. GDP outlook after trade data By Steven Scheer

NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - Wall Street firms sharply dropped their estimates of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on Tuesday after a shocking surge in the nation's trade deficit suggested the international sector was taking a much larger chunk out of growth than previously assumed.

Economists slashed their forecasts for first-quarter GDP growth data to an average annualized rate of about 3 percent from 4 percent.

The Commerce Department said America's trade gap swelled by more than $2.5 billion to a record $19.44 billion in February. That gap was far wider than the $16.9 billion gap U.S. economists projected in a Reuters survey, and smashed the previous record of $16.9 billion hit in January.

``There are a lot of cheap goods flowing into the U.S. and consumers are taking advantage of that these days,'' said Ethan Harris, economist at Lehman Brothers. After the trade report, he lowered his estimate of first-quarter GDP growth to an annualized rate of 3 percent from his earlier forecast of 3.5 percent.

Some private economists cut their forecasts even more drastically, turning in outlooks as low as 2.5 percent growth for the three months ending March 31 .

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BWAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

This is too funny for words!

All these BRIGHT economists finally figured out that collapsing economies and currencies plummeting like jets over Lockerbie will effect our GDP.

LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

What IDIOT could not figure THAT out? Economics 101.

Economist: "We're not going to have a recession."

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAAH!

Stop it! You're killin' me!

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

-- Paul Milne

If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast.

-- a (a@a.a), April 21, 1999

Answers

If you are interested in the cause of the trade deficit, read "The Great American Deception". The author posits that the trade deficit began when America stopped charging tariffs. Other countries have cheaper labor, in particular child labor, and American goods can't compete price-wise. I guess the tie-in here is that Japanese labor just got cheaper.

-- Amy Leone (leoneamy@aol.com), April 21, 1999.

The "Milne" post demonstrates no understanding of GDP, the trade deficit or any element of macroeconomics. Many economists predicted a weaker economy in 1998 due to the global economic malaise and the rising trade imbalance. Fortunately, there were countervailing trends like low interest rates, low inflation, strong consumer spending and rising productivity. The strength the countervailing forces caught many economists by surprise.

Some economists are now predicting external shocks (like rising oil prices) will shave some GDP. In fact, even Y2K has been factored in as a reduction in GDP. Of course, the U.S. equities market still defies economic logic. Even so, 2.5% increase in GDP is not a recession or depression... it's just slower growth. Changing a forecast one percent is not "plunging" or "slashing."

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), April 21, 1999.

Deck:

That's just Milne's lackey...'a'...cross-posting 'Buttheads' crap-ola!

Which brings me to another matter: are you close enough to Milne's bug-out ranch to visit him if he really does have a "come dunk paul milne" party after Jan.? If so, let him have one for me, will ya?

(p.s. will you be visiting the de-bunking y2k board?)

-- Mutha Nachu (---@massivesnowpack.com), April 21, 1999.

Uh no, Mutha, I won't. I'm not homosexual.

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), April 21, 1999.

I honestly don't think 'a' needs Milne to do his 'thinking' for him. This might be a stretch, since almost all of 'a's posts consist of nothing more substantive than thoughtless insults. But I think 'a' posts this trash here as a joke, to see just how far off the deep end people really are here.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 21, 1999.

Bad impersonation there, DeckerTroll.

De-bu nking Y2K webboard

Flint: so you mean 'a' is really just a joke?

-- Mutha Nachu (---@hopethebridgefalls.com), April 21, 1999.

---er. JOKER.

-- Mutha (---@error,error.com), April 21, 1999.

Dear "Mutha Nachu,"

I am delighted you correctly identified the impersonator. As you well know, I rarely use contractions and never begin a post with, "Uh." In truth, I do not know where Mr. Milne's "ranch" is located. It would be quite interesting to see some of the regular posters on this forum in person. As I noted on the GN/BFI forum, I am quite willing to host a mid-Atlantic New Year's Eve celebration. Black tie and tails... and all firearms checked at the door. Of course, I might insist on a soybean-free menu....

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), April 21, 1999.

Hey Flint...should I post the c.s.y2k thread were you publicly apologize to Milne for maliciously misrepresenting him?

And how're the cash withdrawals coming? Are you buying barbed wire too?

-- a (a@a.a), April 21, 1999.

'a':

I'd be delighted if you posted my apology. It might show some of the children here (like yourself) how to behave when you misrepresent someone.

But you're lucky the lesson would be lost on you; otherwise half your posts would be apologies for the other half. Very inefficient.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 21, 1999.

Flinton: Please refer me to the thread where I have misrepresented someone.

Now...where is that thread you started a couple months ago where you insulted practically everyone then had to beg forgiveness...Is this a trend with you?

And BTW - what has all this got to do with the GNP falling?

-- a (a@a.a), April 21, 1999.

"Flinton: Please refer me to the thread where I have misrepresented someone. "

Man, this is too simple. Let's start *right here*!

"Now...where is that thread you started a couple months ago where you insulted practically everyone then had to beg forgiveness...Is this a trend with you? "

1) I didn't "insult practically everyone" at all. I described a very real pattern, and one with which many here agree (and have repeated numerous times in their own words). Well, that's one misrepresentation.

2) I didn't "beg forgiveness". I said the post applied only to those to whom it applied. Which was and is true. That's misrepresentation number two.

3) Oh yes, I always use the handle you choose. You distort mine. Do you call that an accurate interpretation?

Hey! 3-time loser! Wake up and read your own words. An adult would apologize. Let's see what you do.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 21, 1999.

Allright. If I hurt you feelings I'm sorry. Are we pals again?

I don't have a problem with being called names. Comes with the territory. :)

-- a (a@a.a), April 21, 1999.

'a':

At the risk of sounding patronizing, I believe you have a lot more to offer this forum than you choose to share. If you do some research, you'll find that most of your posts really are either personal attacks or reposts of Milne or some other loony. I feel that these tactics are to your discredit and to nobody's edification.

I keep hoping that you'll sit down soon and write a good, insider's viewpoint of what makes a remediation project go bad. That would be much more useful for everyone than yet another demonstration that Milne doesn't understand economics (the upshot of the post you started this thread with).

I'd like to know about misspent money, misspent time, improper staffing, bass-ackwards priorities, lack of foresight and contingency planning, reasons behind bad scheduling and inadequate testing, and so on. I know you are much more aware of these things than I am, since I'm tucked away in the hardware design department.

I think I understand your viewpoint. Like you, I'm bunkered down now and spend time here at least partially to shine spotlights on the more preposterous stupidities or blindest biases. But I also hope to learn about things I'm not familiar with. Maybe you can help.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 21, 1999.

Flint: I have been posting here since around July. I started off posting technically oriented stuff and occasionally still do. But the y2k "problem" has evolved differently than I expected. My main fascination these days is not how bad the technological collapse (or to use a more polly-friendly term, effect) will be, but rather on the psychological dimension. To this effect I have been concentrating on discrediting shills and idiots, er, mentally challenged individuals like Y2K Pro. I still think that the writings of Cory and Milne are important in preparing folks for the challenges ahead. But time is running out, maybe you and Mutha are winning. :)

As far as an expose on mismanagement where I work, I am too paranoid at this point to divulge specifics. But read the old Dilbert books; you'll get the picture.

Drop me a line if you want. I was just thinking today that it would be fun to get together and have beer someday. We're all in this together.

-- a (a@a.a), April 21, 1999.

'a':

Then I must take you to task here. Idiots and shills should be discredited, I agree. But just calling them names doesn't discredit them when they make cogent arguments and provide convincing detail (to the degree they dare -- you know about that). Instead, this tactic tends to discredit you.

I try hard to be as honest as I can be in what I say, and I'm willing to apologize later (as you've noticed) if I feel I wasn't. If I feel there are shortcomings in a presententation intended to be serious, I try to point out why I think the effort falls short, or what assumptions might lie behind it that are taken for granted. I don't just come out and call these people fools or say they're intellectually bankrupt. They aren't. Even if they are (unusual when someone is making a real effort), it's no help just to denounce them without explanation.

I've often (not always) agreed with the points I think Y2K Pro is trying to make, although I've never agreed with his method of making those points. Like too many (yourself, all too often), he lives in attack mode and makes no effort to clarify the thinking behind his rants.

The psychology behind people's reactions to the coming mess is interesting. Worth thinking about and discussing reasonably. Many of the more optimistic people here are educated, intelligent, knowledgeable, and quite experienced. But everyone's experience is necessarily narrow. There are times when I'd like to crosstab the posters here by profession, by age, by sex, by income, whatever, and look for patterns. We might get some insights.

I've also considered taking all the threads that appear and identifying the first pure attack post (if any) on each, then tabulating the results by count of posts before first attack, orientation and name of attacker, subject of the attack, etc. I don't have the time for this research project, but it would be informative.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 21, 1999.